Aquaculture production in areas with high seasonal temperature variations: Development of planning tools

Postprint (published version)

Salinity Intrusion and Seasonal Water Quality Variations in the Tidal Canals of Cochin

The study conducted on the salinity intrusion and seasonal water quality variations in the tidal canals of cochin. The main objectives are, salinity intrusion profile, water quality variation of the surface water of the canals,hierarchical utility of the water bodies and to understand the non-conservative components in the water body. The parameters monitored werepH,temperature,alkalinity,conductivity,DO(dissolvedoxygen),COD(chemical oxygen demand),BOD(biochemical oxygen demand0,chloride, total hardness, calcium hardness, dissolved phosphate, nitrate, total iron, sulphate, turbidity, total coliform and SUVA at 254nm. The tidal canals of GCDA were found to be creeks extending to the interior, canals inter connecting parts of the estuary or canals with seasonally broken segments. Based on utility the canals could be classified as: canals heavely polluted and very saline,canals polluted by urban waste , canals having fresh water for most part of the year and not much polluted, fresh water bodies heavily polluted. During the rainy months carbon fixation by plankton is nonexistent,and during the dry months Chitrapuzha becomes a sink of phosphate. The study indicated abiotic subrouts for dissolved phosphate and revealed the potential pitfalls in LOICZ modeling exercise on sewage ladentidal canals. It was also found that all canals except for the canals of West cochin and chittoorpuzha have fresh water for some part of the year. The water quality index in the durable fresh water stretches was found to be of below average category.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Seasonal and ontogenetic variations in the diet of Cichla kelberi Kullander and Ferreira, 2006 introduced in an artificial lake in southeastern Brazil

A dieta de Cichla kelberi introduzido em um lago artificial em Leme-SP foi composta predominantemente pelas espécies de peixes mais comuns nesse lago (Oreochromis niloticus e o próprio C. kelberi). Na primavera e no verão, o item mais consumido foi O. niloticus. Porém, o canibalismo foi muito comum para esta espécie. As altas frequências de O. niloticus e de C. kelberi revelam que a espécie apresenta um ciclo sazonal, se alimentando das presas mais comuns em cada período do ano, com uma redução da sua atividade alimentar durante o inverno. As dietas foram diferentes entre os exemplares imaturos e maduros, sugerindo que existem diferenças ontogenéticas, principalmente relacionadas ao tipo de presa, como: Ephemeroptera, consumidos pelos tucunarés imaturos e peixes, pelos maduros, além do tamanho das presas.

Seasonal skid resistance variations. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Seasonal skid resistance variations. Interim report.

Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, Bureau of Materials, Testing and Research, Harrisburg

Seasonal variation of soluble carbohydrates and starch in Echinolaena inflexa, a native grass species from the Brazilian savanna, and in the invasive grass Melinis minutiflora

Echinolaena inflexa (Poir.) Chase is an abundant C3 grass species with high biomass production in the Brazilian savanna (cerrado); Melinis minutiflora Beauv. is an African C4 forage grass widespread in cerrado and probably displacing some native herbaceous species. In the present work, we analysed seasonally the content and composition of soluble carbohydrates, the starch amounts and the above-ground biomass (phytomass) of E. inflexa and M. minutiflora plants harvested in two transects at 5 and 130 m from the border in a restrict area of cerrado at the Biological Reserve and Experimental Station of Mogi-Guaçu (SP, Brazil). Results showed that water soluble carbohydrates and starch amounts from the shoots of both species varied according to the time of the year, whilst in the underground organs, variations were observed mainly in relation to the transects. Marked differences in the pattern of the above-ground biomass production between these two grasses relative to their location in the Reserve were also observed, with two peaks of the invasive species (July and January) at the Reserve border. The differences in carbohydrate accumulation, partitioning and composition of individual sugars concerning time of the year and location in the Reserve were more related to the annual growth cycle of both grasses and possibly to specific physiological responses of M. minutiflora to disturbed environments in the Reserve border.

A descriptive analysis of the seasonal variation of physical oceanographic characteristics in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (Bahia, Brazil)

The results obtained in the August and December 2003, August 2004 and January 2005 oceanographic campaigns in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (lat. 12º44.5'S; long. 038º35.00'W) between the Madre de Deus and Maré islands are analyzed. Instruments of continuous and discrete samplings were used to measure hydrographic properties currents and tides. The water mass of the northern region of the bay is forced by semidiurnal and mesotides of form number 0.08 and the lunar component M2 height was estimated at 91cm. The time series of the surface currents indicated movements in the N/S direction, forced by the tide with maximum magnitudes of 0.73 m.s-1 on the December 2003 campaign. However, in August 2004 the currents were dominated by the wind stress forcing, with a maximum speed of 1.85 m.s-1 and SE direction. Near the bottom, the influence of the tide is not as evident, with a decrease in intensity due to internal and bottom friction, with a maximum velocity of 0.17 m.s-1. The thermal and haline structures were weakly horizontally, as well as vertically stratified, with extreme values varying in the intervals 23ºC (August, 2004) to 28ºC (December, 2003) and 31.0 psu (August, 2003) to 36.0 psu (December, 2003), respectively. Some conclusions may be drawn from these results: i) The signs of the dilution of the fresh water discharges of the Caípe, Mataripe and São Paulo rivers in the region under the influence of the RLAM were observed only during the winter periods, but in the summer the region was flooded by waters of oceanic origin and the salinities above 36.0 indicated TW mass intrusion; ii) The N-S circulation near the RLAM is strongly dominated by the tide, and the importance of the M2 component was unequivocal, however, the E-W component presented some tidal modulation away from abrupt bottom topographical changes, and iii) The residual series, calculated as the difference between the original and modeled, is about ¼ of the original and confirmed its semidiurnal character.

Polar organic marker compounds in atmospheric aerosols during the LBA-SMOCC 2002 biomass burning experiment in Rondonia, Brazil: sources and source processes, time series, diel variations and size distributions

Measurements of polar organic marker compounds were performed on aerosols that were collected at a pasture site in the Amazon basin (Rondonia, Brazil) using a high-volume dichotomous sampler (HVDS) and a Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor (MOUDI) within the framework of the 2002 LBA-SMOCC (Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Smoke Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall, and Climate: Aerosols From Biomass Burning Perturb Global and Regional Climate) campaign. The campaign spanned the late dry season (biomass burning), a transition period, and the onset of the wet season (clean conditions). In the present study a more detailed discussion is presented compared to previous reports on the behavior of selected polar marker compounds, including levoglucosan, malic acid, isoprene secondary organic aerosol (SOA) tracers and tracers for fungal spores. The tracer data are discussed taking into account new insights that recently became available into their stability and/or aerosol formation processes. During all three periods, levoglucosan was the most dominant identified organic species in the PM(2.5) size fraction of the HVDS samples. In the dry period levoglucosan reached concentrations of up to 7.5 mu g m(-3) and exhibited diel variations with a nighttime prevalence. It was closely associated with the PM mass in the size-segregated samples and was mainly present in the fine mode, except during the wet period where it peaked in the coarse mode. Isoprene SOA tracers showed an average concentration of 250 ng m(-3) during the dry period versus 157 ng m(-3) during the transition period and 52 ng m(-3) during the wet period. Malic acid and the 2-methyltetrols exhibited a different size distribution pattern, which is consistent with different aerosol formation processes (i.e., gas-to-particle partitioning in the case of malic acid and heterogeneous formation from gas-phase precursors in the case of the 2-methyltetrols). The 2-methyltetrols were mainly associated with the fine mode during all periods, while malic acid was prevalent in the fine mode only during the dry and transition periods, and dominant in the coarse mode during the wet period. The sum of the fungal spore tracers arabitol, mannitol, and erythritol in the PM(2.5) fraction of the HVDS samples during the dry, transition, and wet periods was, on average, 54 ng m(-3), 34 ng m(-3), and 27 ng m(-3), respectively, and revealed minor day/night variation. The mass size distributions of arabitol and mannitol during all periods showed similar patterns and an association with the coarse mode, consistent with their primary origin. The results show that even under the heavy smoke conditions of the dry period a natural background with contributions from bioaerosols and isoprene SOA can be revealed. The enhancement in isoprene SOA in the dry season is mainly attributed to an increased acidity of the aerosols, increased NO(x) concentrations and a decreased wet deposition.

Observation of muon intensity variations by season with the MINOS far detector

The temperature of the upper atmosphere affects the height of primary cosmic ray interactions and the production of high-energy cosmic ray muons which can be detected deep underground. The MINOS far detector at Soudan, MN, has collected over 67 X 10(6) cosmic ray induced muons. The underground muon rate measured over a period of five years exhibits a 4% peak-to-peak seasonal variation which is highly correlated with the temperature in the upper atmosphere. The coefficient, alpha(T), relating changes in the muon rate to changes in atmospheric temperature was found to be alpha(T) 0: 873 +/- 0: 009(stat) +/- 0.010(syst). Pions and kaons in the primary hadronic interactions of cosmic rays in the atmosphere contribute differently to alpha(T) due to the different masses and lifetimes. This allows the measured value of alpha(T) to be interpreted as a measurement of the K/pi ratio for E(p) greater than or similar to 7 TeV of 0.12(-0.05)(+0.07), consistent with the expectation from collider experiments.