Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability

Students’ perception of the safety and value of a herbal vs. a conventional medicine for treating insomnia

University students suffer from variable sleep patterns including insomnia;[1] furthermore, the highest incidence of herbal use appears to be among college graduates.[2] Our objective was to test the perception of safety and value of herbal against conventional medicine for the treatment of insomnia in a non-pharmacy student population. We used an experimental design and bespoke vignettes that relayed the same effectiveness information to test our hypothesis that students would give higher ratings of safety and value to herbal product compared to conventional medicine. We tested another hypothesis that the addition of side-effect information would lower people’s perception of the safety and value of the herbal product to a greater extent than it would with the conventional medicine.

A multi-level analytical approach for detection and visualization of intracellular NO production and nitrosation events using diaminofluoresceins

Diaminofluoresceins are widely used probes for detection and intracellular localization of NO formation in cultured/isolated cells and intact tissues. The fluorinated derivative, 4-amino-5-methylamino-2′,7′-difluorofluorescein (DAF-FM), has gained increasing popularity in recent years due to its improved NO-sensitivity, pH-stability, and resistance to photo-bleaching compared to the first-generation compound, DAF-2. Detection of NO production by either reagent relies on conversion of the parent compound into a fluorescent triazole, DAF-FM-T and DAF-2-T, respectively. While this reaction is specific for NO and/or reactive nitrosating species, it is also affected by the presence of oxidants/antioxidants. Moreover, the reaction with other molecules can lead to the formation of fluorescent products other than the expected triazole. Thus additional controls and structural confirmation of the reaction products are essential. Using human red blood cells as an exemplary cellular system we here describe robust protocols for the analysis of intracellular DAF-FM-T formation using an array of fluorescence-based methods (laser-scanning fluorescence microscopy, flow cytometry and fluorimetry) and analytical separation techniques (reversed-phase HPLC and LC-MS/MS). When used in combination, these assays afford unequivocal identification of the fluorescent signal as being derived from NO and are applicable to most other cellular systems without or with only minor modifications.

Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering

The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change [1] has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming [2] (“geoengineering”), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries [3]. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget 4 and 5 because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation [6]. Specifically, we propose a “bio-geoengineering” approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1°C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO2[7]. Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.

High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120kyr

Interpretation of ice-core records is currently limited by paucity of modelling at adequate temporal and spatial resolutions. Several key questions relate to mechanisms of polar amplification and inter-hemispheric coupling on glacial/interglacial timescales. Here, we present the first results from a large set of global ocean–atmosphere climate model ‘snap-shot’ simulations covering the last 120 000 years using the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3) at up to 1 kyr temporal resolution. Two sets of simulations were performed in order to examine the roles of orbit and greenhouse gases versus ice-sheet forcing of orbital-scale climate change. A series of idealised Heinrich events were also simulated, but no changes to aerosols or vegetation were prescribed. This paper focuses on high latitudes and inter-hemispheric linkages. The simulations reproduce polar temperature trends well compared to ice-core reconstructions, although the magnitude is underestimated. Polar amplification varies with obliquity, but this variability is dampened by including variations in land ice coverage, while the overall amplification factor increases. The relatively constant amplification of Antarctic temperatures (with ice-sheet forcing included) suggests it is possible to use Antarctic temperature reconstructions to estimate global changes (which are roughly half the magnitude). Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation varies considerably only with the introduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but only weakens in the North Atlantic in the deep glacial, when ocean–sea-ice feedbacks result in the movement of the region of deep convection to lower latitudes and with the introduction of freshwater to the surface North Atlantic in order to simulate Heinrich events.

Inhibition of LRRK2 kinase activity stimulates macroautophagy

Leucine Rich Repeat Kinase 2 (LRRK2) is one of the most important genetic contributors to Parkinson's disease. LRRK2 has been implicated in a number of cellular processes, including macroautophagy. To test whether LRRK2 has a role in regulating autophagy, a specific inhibitor of the kinase activity of LRRK2 was applied to human neuroglioma cells and downstream readouts of autophagy examined. The resulting data demonstrate that inhibition of LRRK2 kinase activity stimulates macroautophagy in the absence of any alteration in the translational targets of mTORC1, suggesting that LRRK2 regulates autophagic vesicle formation independent of canonical mTORC1 signaling. This study represents the first pharmacological dissection of the role LRRK2 plays in the autophagy/lysosomal pathway, emphasizing the importance of this pathway as a marker for LRRK2 physiological function. Moreover it highlights the need to dissect autophagy and lysosomal activities in the context of LRRK2 related pathologies with the final aim of understanding their aetiology and identifying specific target for disease modifying therapies in patients.

Electrochemical sensing of 2D condensation in amyloid peptides

The interfacial behavior of the model amyloid peptide octamer YYKLVFFC (peptide 1) and two other amyloid peptides YEVHHQKLVFF (peptide 2) and KKLVFFA (peptide 3) at the metal|aqueous solution interface was studied by voltammetric and constant current chronopotentiometric stripping (CPS). All three peptides are adsorbed in a wide potential range and exhibit different interfacial organizations depending on the electrode potential. At the least negative potentials, chemisorption of peptide 1 occurs through the formation of a metal sulfur bond. This bond is broken close to −0.6 V. The peptide undergoes self-association at more negative potentials, leading to the formation of a “pit” characteristic of a 2D condensed film. Under the same conditions the other peptides do not produce such a pit. Formation of the 2D condensed layer in peptide 1 is supported by the time, potential and temperature dependences of the interfacial capacity and it is shown that presence of the 2D layer is reflected by the peptide CPS signals due to the catalytic hydrogen evolution. The ability of peptide 1 to form the potential-dependent 2D condensed layer has been reported neither for any other peptide nor for any protein molecule. This ability might be related to the well-known oligomerization and aggregation of Alzheimer amyloid peptides.

Late Quaternary highstands at Lake Chilwa, Malawi: frequency, timing and possible forcing mechanisms in the last 44ka

The extensive shoreline deposits of Lake Chilwa, southern Malawi, a shallow water body today covering 600 km2 of a basin of 7500 km2, are investigated for their record of late Quaternary highstands. OSL dating, applied to 36 samples from five sediment cores from the northern and western marginal sand ridges, reveal a highstand record spanning 44 ka. Using two different grouping methods, highstand phases are identified at 43.7–33.3 ka, 26.2–21.0 ka and 17.9–12.0 ka (total error method) or 38.4–35.5 ka, 24.3–22.3 ka, 16.2–15.1 ka and 13.5–12.7 ka (Finite Mixture Model age components) with two further discrete events recorded at 11.01 ± 0.76 ka and 8.52 ± 0.56 ka. Highstands are comparable to the timing of wet phases from other basins in East and southern Africa, demonstrating wet conditions in the region before the LGM, which was dry, and a wet Lateglacial, which commenced earlier in the southern compared to northern hemisphere in East Africa. We find no evidence that wet phases are insolation driven, but analysis of the dataset and GCM modelling experiments suggest that Heinrich events may be associated with enhanced monsoon activity in East Africa in both timing and as a possible causal mechanism.