Clinical follow-up of women infected with human papillomavirus-16, either alone or with other human papillomavirus types : identification of different risk groups

Rapport de synthèse Objectifs : Évaluer l'impact clinique de femmes infectées par de multiples papillomavirus human (HPV) à haut risque dont le HPV 16 en comparaison de l'évolution de femmes infectées par du HPV 16 seul. Méthode : 169 femmes ont été classifiées en trois groupes, dépendant de leur profile HPV: HPV-16 seul, HPV-16 et un HPV de type bas risque, HPV-16 et un autre HPV à haut risque. Le HPV-DNA des frottis cervicaux a été analysé par polymerase chain reaction (PCR) et reverse line blot hybridization (RLBH). Toutes les femmes ont été suivies à la consultation de colposcopie pour une durée de 24 mois ou plus. La prise en charge s'est faite selon les recommandations de Bethesda. Résultats : Les femmes infectées par du HPV 16 et un autre HPV à haut risque n'ont présenté aucun changement voire une progression de leur dysplasie en comparaison des femmes des autres groupes (RR: 1.39; 95%CI: 1.07 à 1.82; p value: 0.02 à 6 mois; RR: 2.10; 95%CI: 1.46 à 3.02; p value: <0.001 à 12 mois; RR: 1.82; 95%CI: 1.21 à 2.72; p value: 0.004 à 24 mois). Conclusions : Les femmes présentant une co-infection par du HPV 16 ainsi qu'un autre HPV de haut risque voient leur risque d'évolution défavorable augmenter.

What impact do systemically administrated bisphosphonates have on oral implant therapy? A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate, analysing the dental literature, whether: * Patients on intravenous (IV) or oral bisphosphonates (BPs) can receive oral implant therapy and what could be the risk of developing bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (BRONJ)? * Osseointegrated implants could be affected by BP therapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A Medline search was conducted and all publications fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria from 1966 until December 2008 were included in the review. Moreover, the Cochrane Data Base of Systematic Reviews, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and EMBASE (from 1980 to December 2008) were searched for English-language articles published between 1966 and 2008. Literature search was completed by a hand research accessing the references cited in all identified publications. RESULTS: The literature search rendered only one prospective and three retrospective studies. The prospective controlled non-randomized clinical study followed patients with and without BP medication up to 36 months after implant therapy. The patients in the experimental group had been on oral BPs before implant therapy for periods ranging between 1 and 4 years. None of the patients developed BRONJ and implant outcome was not affected by the BP medication. The three selected retrospective studies (two case-controls and one case series) yielded very similar results. All have followed patients on oral BPs after implant therapy, with follow-up ranging between 2 and 4 years. BRONJ was never reported and implant survival rates ranged between 95% and 100%. The literature search on BRONJ including guidelines and recommendations found 59 papers, from which six were retrieved. Among the guidelines, there is a consensus on contraindicating implants in cancer patients under IV-BPs and not contraindicating dental implants in patients under oral-BPs for osteoporosis. CONCLUSIONS: From the analysis of the one prospective and the three retrospective series (217 patients), the placement of an implant may be considered a safe procedure in patients taking oral BPs for <5 years with regard to the occurrence of BRONJ since in these studies no BRONJ has been reported. Moreover, the intake of oral-BPs did not influence short-term (1-4 years) implant survival rates.

Recommendations and Funding Options to Mitigate Flood Risk, November 2009

Iowa legislation required the state’s Water Resources Coordinating Council (WRCC) to submit policy and make recommendations that promote a watershed management approach to reduce the adverse impact of future flooding on this state’s residents, businesses, communities, and soil and water quality.

Metabolic syndrome and the risk of cardiovascular disease in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess whether metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) predicts a higher risk for cardiovascular events in older adults. BACKGROUND: The importance of MetSyn as a risk factor has not previously focused on older adults and deserves further study. METHODS: We studied the impact of MetSyn (38% prevalence) on outcomes in 3,035 participants in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study (51% women, 42% black, ages 70 to 79 years). RESULTS: During a 6-year follow-up, there were 434 deaths overall, 472 coronary events (CE), 213 myocardial infarctions (MI), and 231 heart failure (HF) hospital stays; 59% of the subjects had at least one hospital stay. Coronary events, MI, HF, and overall hospital stays occurred significantly more in subjects with MetSyn (19.9% vs. 12.9% for CE, 9.1% vs. 5.7% for MI, 10.0% vs. 6.1% for HF, and 63.1% vs. 56.1% for overall hospital stay; all p < 0.001). No significant differences in overall mortality was seen; however, there was a trend toward higher cardiovascular mortality (5.1% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.067) and coronary mortality (4.5% vs. 3.2%, p = 0.051) in patients with MetSyn. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, patients with MetSyn were at a significantly higher risk for CE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28 to 1.91), MI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.05), and HF hospital stay (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.00). Women and whites with MetSyn had a higher coronary mortality rate. The CE rate was higher among subjects with diabetes and with MetSyn; those with both had the highest risk. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, subjects over 70 years are at high risk for cardiovascular events; MetSyn in this group is associated with a significantly greater risk.

Lung Function and Risk for Heart Failure Among Older Adults: The Health ABC Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of abnormal spirometric findings on risk for incident heart failure among older adults without clinically apparent lung disease is not well elucidated.METHODS: We evaluated the association of baseline lung function with incident heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for heart failure, in 2125 participants of the community-based Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study (age, 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 50.5% men; 62.3% white; 37.7% black) without prevalent lung disease or heart failure. Abnormal lung function was defined either as forced vital capacity (FVC) or forced expiratory volume in 1(st) second (FEV1) to FVC ratio below lower limit of normal. Percent predicted FVC and FEV1 also were assessed as continuous variables.RESULTS: During follow-up (median, 9.4 years), heart failure developed in 68 of 350 (19.4%) participants with abnormal baseline lung function, as compared with 172 of 1775 (9.7%) participants with normal lung function (hazard ratio [HR] 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-3.07; P <.001). This increased risk persisted after adjusting for previously identified heart failure risk factors in the Health ABC Study, body mass index, incident coronary heart disease, and inflammatory markers (HR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.33-2.50; P <.001). Percent predicted (%) FVC and FEV 1 had a linear association with heart failure risk (HR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.32 and 1.18; 95% CI, 1.10-1.26, per 10% lower % FVC and % FEV1, respectively; both P <.001 in fully adjusted models). Findings were consistent in sex and race subgroups and for heart failure with preserved or reduced ejection fraction.CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal spirometric findings in older adults without clinical lung disease are associated with increased heart failure risk. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. The American Journal of Medicine (2011) 124, 334-341

Reduction in the use of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis does not delay antibiotic treatment.

Despite a low positive predictive value, diagnostic tests such as complete blood count (CBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are commonly used to evaluate whether infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) should be treated with antibiotics. We investigated the impact of implementing a protocol aiming at reducing the number of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for EOS in order to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated clinical examination with CBC and CRP measurement. The primary outcome was the time between birth and the first dose of antibiotics in infants treated for suspected EOS. Among the 11,503 infants born at ≥35 weeks during the study period, 222 were treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS. The proportion of infants receiving antibiotics for suspected EOS was 2.1% and 1.7% before and after the change of protocol (p = 0.09). Reduction of diagnostic tests was associated with earlier antibiotic treatment in infants treated for suspected EOS (hazard ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.07; p <0.001), and in infants with neonatal infection (hazard ratio 2.20; 95% CI 1.19-4.06; p = 0.01). There was no difference in the duration of hospital stay nor in the proportion of infants requiring respiratory or cardiovascular support before and after the change of protocol. Reduction of diagnostic tests such as CBC and CRP does not delay initiation of antibiotic treatment in infants with suspected EOS. The importance of clinical examination in infants with risk factors for EOS should be emphasised.

Increased male offspring's risk of metabolic-neuroendocrine dysfunction and overweight after fructose-rich diet intake by the lactating mother.

An adverse endogenous environment during early life predisposes the organism to develop metabolic disorders. We evaluated the impact of intake of an iso-caloric fructose rich diet (FRD) by lactating mothers (LM) on several metabolic functions of their male offspring. On postnatal d 1, ad libitum eating, lactating Sprague-Dawley rats received either 10% F (wt/vol; FRD-LM) or tap water (controls, CTR-LM) to drink throughout lactation. Weaned male offspring were fed ad libitum a normal diet, and body weight (BW) and food intake were registered until experimentation (60 d of age). Basal circulating levels of metabolic markers were evaluated. Both iv glucose tolerance and hypothalamic leptin sensitivity tests were performed. The hypothalamus was dissected for isolation of total RNA and Western blot analysis. Retroperitoneal (RP) adipose tissue was dissected and either kept frozen for gene analysis or digested to isolate adipocytes or for histological studies. FRD rats showed increased BW and decreased hypothalamic sensitivity to exogenous leptin, enhanced food intake (between 49-60 d), and decreased hypothalamic expression of several anorexigenic signals. FRD rats developed increased insulin and leptin peripheral levels and decreased adiponectinemia; although FRD rats normally tolerated glucose excess, it was associated with enhanced insulin secretion. FRD RP adipocytes were enlarged and spontaneously released high leptin, although they were less sensitive to insulin-induced leptin release. Accordingly, RP fat leptin gene expression was high in FRD rats. Excessive fructose consumption by lactating mothers resulted in deep neuroendocrine-metabolic disorders of their male offspring, probably enhancing the susceptibility to develop overweight/obesity during adult life.

Alcohol drinking and cardiovascular risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption

Résumé : Description : Ce travail de thèse évalue l'impact de la consommation importante d'alcool sur les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire et l'estimation du risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans (risque de développer une maladie coronarienne}, dans une population avec une consommation moyenne élevée d'alcool. La consommation modérée d'alcool a été liée à un risque plus faible de développer une maladie coronarienne. Cependant, les données concernant la consommation importante d'alcool et le risque de développer une maladie coronarienne sont conflictuelles. Il y a également peu d'études dans lesquelles les consommations importantes d'alcool ont pu être évaluées en raison du petit nombre de sujets présentant une telle consommation. Résultats: Nous avons utilisé les données de l'étude CoLaus, une étude populationnelle qui inclut des adultes, âgés de 35 à 75 ans, de la ville de Lausanne. Nous avons inclus 5'769 participants, sans maladie cardiovasculaire, pour lesquels la consommation d'alcool d'une semaine a été catégorisée en 0, 1 à 6, 7 à 13, 14 à 20, 21 à 27, 28 à 34 et >=35 verres/semaine et en non-consommateur (0 verre/semaine), consommateur modéré (1 à 13 verres/semaine), important (14 à 34 verres/semaine) et très important (>= 35). La tension artérielle et les lipides ont été mesurés et le risque de développer une maladie coronarienne à 10 ans a été calculé en utilisant le score de Framingham. 73% des participants consommaient de l'alcool; 16% étaient des consommateurs importants et 2% des consommateurs très importants. L'analyse rnultivariée a montré une augmentation du cholestérol HDL avec la consommation d'alcool (de 1.570.01 [moyenne +- erreur standard] chez les non consommateurs à 1.880.03 mmol/L chez les consommateurs très importants), des triglycérides (1.17+-1.01 à 1.32+-1.05 mmol/L) et des valeurs de tension artérielle systolique (127.4+-0.4 à 132.2+-.4 mm Hg) et diastolique (78.7+-0.3 à 81.7+-0.9 mm Hg, toutes les valeurs de p pour trend<0.001). Quant au risque de développer une maladie coronarienne à 10 ans, il a augmenté de 4.31%+-0.10 à 4.90%+-0.37 (p=0.03) avec la consommation d'alcool, en décrivant une courbe en J. En examinant le type de consommation, on a vu que la consommation de vin a plus d'effet sur l'augmentation des valeurs de cholestérol HDL, alors que la consommation de bière ou de spiritueux a plus d'effet sur l'augmentation des valeurs de triglycérides. Conclusions et perspectives: Nos résultats montrent qu'en ce qui concerne l'estimation du risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans, l'effet protecteur de la consommation d'alcool disparaît pour des consommations très importantes, car l'effet bénéfique des valeurs augmentées de cholestérol HDL est contrecarré par l'augmentation des valeurs de tension artérielle. Quant aux différents types d'alcool, d'autres études sont nécessaires pour mieux évaluer leur effet spécifique sur les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire.

Impact of induction therapy on airway complications after sleeve lobectomy for lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Sleeve lobectomy is a valid alternative to pneumonectomy for the treatment of centrally located operable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but concern has been evoked regarding a potentially increased risk of bronchial anastomosis complications after induction therapy. This study examined the impact of induction therapy on airway healing after sleeve lobectomy for NSCLC. METHODS: Bronchial anastomosis complications were recorded with respect to the induction regimen applied (neoadjuvant chemotherapy vs chemoradiotherapy) in a consecutive series of patients with sleeve lobectomy for NSCLC. RESULTS: Ninety-nine patients underwent sleeve resection, 28 of them after induction therapy. Twelve patients received chemotherapy alone, and 16 patients had radiochemotherapy. There were no significant differences in postoperative 90-day mortality (3.6% vs 2.8%) and morbidity (54% vs 49%) for patients with and without induction therapy. Bronchial anastomosis complications occurred in 3 patients (10.8%) with neoadjuvant therapy and in 2 (2.8%) without (p = 0.3). In the induction therapy group, two bronchial stenoses occurred after radiochemotherapy and one bronchopleural fistula after chemotherapy alone. In patients without induction therapy, one bronchial stenosis and one bronchopleural fistula were observed. All bronchial stenoses were successfully treated by dilatation, and both bronchopleural fistulas occurring after right lower lobectomy were successfully treated by reoperation and completion sleeve bilobectomy with preservation of the upper lobe. CONCLUSIONS: Sleeve lobectomy for NSCLC can be safely performed after induction chemotherapy and radiochemotherapy with mortality and incidence of airway complications similar to that observed in nonpretreated patients. The treatment of airway complications does not differ for patients with and without induction therapy.

Circulating sex steroids during pregnancy and maternal risk of non-epithelial ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Sex steroid hormones have been proposed to play a role in the development of non-epithelial ovarian cancers (NEOC) but so far no direct epidemiological data are available.METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort, the world's largest bio-repository of serum specimens from pregnant women. Study subjects were selected among women who donated a blood sample during a singleton pregnancy that led to the birth of their last child preceding diagnosis of NEOC. Case subjects were 41 women with sex-cord stromal tumors (SCST) and 21 with germ cell tumors (GCT). Three controls, matching the index case for age, parity at the index pregnancy, and date at blood donation were selected (n=171). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) associated with concentrations of testosterone, androstenedione, 17-OH-progesterone, progesterone, estradiol and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) were estimated through conditional logistic regression.RESULTS: For SCST, doubling of testosterone, androstenedione and 17-OH-progesterone concentrations were associated with about 2-fold higher risk of SCST [ORs and 95% CI of 2.16 (1.25-3.74), 2.16 (1.20-3.87), and 2.62 (1.27-5.38), respectively]. These associations remained largely unchanged after excluding women within 2, 4 or 6 years lag-time between blood donation and cancer diagnosis. Sex steroid hormones concentrations were not related to maternal risk of GCT.CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective study providing initial evidence that elevated androgens play a role in the pathogenesis of SCST. Impact: Our study may note a particular need for larger confirmatory investigations on sex steroids and NEOC.

Regional differences in self-reported screening, prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, health policies are decided at the local level, but little is known regarding their impact on the screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). We thus aimed at assessing geographical levels of CVRFs in Switzerland.¦METHODS: Swiss Health Survey for 2007 (N = 17,879). Seven administrative regions were defined: West (Leman), West-Central (Mittelland), Zurich, South (Ticino), North-West, East and Central Switzerland. Obesity, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes prevalence, treatment and screening within the last 12 months were assessed by interview.¦RESULTS: After multivariate adjustment for age, gender, educational level, marital status and Swiss citizenship, no significant differences were found between regions regarding prevalence of obesity or current smoking. Similarly, no differences were found regarding hypertension screening and prevalence. Two thirds of subjects who had been told they had high blood pressure were treated, the lowest treatment rates being found in East Switzerland: odds-ratio and [95% confidence interval] 0.65 [0.50-0.85]. Screening for hypercholesterolemia was more frequently reported in French (Leman) and Italian (Ticino) speaking regions. Four out of ten participants who had been told they had high cholesterol levels were treated and the lowest treatment rates were found in German-speaking regions. Screening for diabetes was higher in Ticino (1.24 [1.09 - 1.42]). Six out of ten participants who had been told they had diabetes were treated, the lowest treatment rates were found for German-speaking regions.¦CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, cardiovascular risk factor screening and management differ between regions and these differences cannot be accounted for by differences in populations' characteristics. Management of most cardiovascular risk factors could be improved.

Public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on JUPITER Modeling study from a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on the Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin Study (JUPITER). METHODS: We studied 2268 adults aged 35-75 without cardiovascular disease in a population-based study in Switzerland in 2003-2006. We assessed the eligibility for statins according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines, and by adding "strict" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L and LDL-cholesterol <3.4mmol/L), and "extended" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L alone) JUPITER-like criteria. We estimated the proportion of CHD deaths potentially prevented over 10years in the Swiss population. RESULTS: Fifteen % were already taking statins, 42% were eligible by ATPIII guidelines, 53% by adding "strict", and 62% by adding "extended" criteria, with a total of 19% newly eligible. The number needed to treat with statins to avoid one CHD death over 10years was 38 for ATPIII, 84 for "strict" and 92 for "extended" JUPITER-like criteria. ATPIII would prevent 17% of CHD deaths, compared with 20% for ATPIII+"strict" and 23% for ATPIII + "extended" criteria (+6%). CONCLUSION: Implementing JUPITER-like strategies would make statin prescribing for primary prevention more common and less efficient than it is with current guidelines.

Minor protease inhibitor mutations at baseline do not increase the risk for a virological failure in HIV-1 subtype B infected patients.

BACKGROUND: Minor protease inhibitor (PI) mutations often exist as polymorphisms in HIV-1 sequences from treatment-naïve patients. Previous studies showed that their presence impairs the antiretroviral treatment (ART) response. Evaluating these findings in a larger cohort is essential. METHODS: To study the impact of minor PI mutations on time to viral suppression and time to virological failure, we included patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study infected with HIV-1 subtype B who started first-line ART with a PI and two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Cox regression models were performed to compare the outcomes among patients with 0 and ≥ 1 minor PI mutation. Models were adjusted for baseline HIV-1 RNA, CD4 cell count, sex, transmission category, age, ethnicity, year of ART start, the presence of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mutations, and stratified for the administered PIs. RESULTS: We included 1199 patients of whom 944 (78.7%) received a boosted PI. Minor PI mutations associated with the administered PI were common: 41.7%, 16.1%, 4.7% and 1.9% had 1, 2, 3 or ≥ 4 mutations, respectively. The time to viral suppression was similar between patients with 0 (reference) and ≥ 1 minor PI mutation (multivariable hazard ratio (HR): 1.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0-1.3], P = .196). The time to virological failure was also similar (multivariable HR:.9 [95% CI:.5-1.6], P = .765). In addition, the impact of each single minor PI mutation was analyzed separately: none was significantly associated with the treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of minor PI mutations at baseline has no effect on the therapy outcome in HIV infected individuals.

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture.

Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the trabecular bone score (TBS) measure. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis values, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goal of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. We included 631 women: mean age 67.4 ± 6.7 years, BMI 26.1 ± 4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943 ± 0.168 (T-score − 1.4 SD), and TBS 1.271 ± 0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2 = 0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2-2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), and 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), and 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < − 2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < − 2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been misclassified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS and HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Disparities in work, risk and health between immigrants and native-born Spaniards

We analyse the impact of working and contractual conditions, particularly exposure to job risks, on the probability of acquiring a permanent disability, controlling for other personal and firm characteristics. We postulate a model in which this impact is mediated by the choice of occupation, with a level of risk associated with it. We assume this choice is endogenous, and that it depends on preferences and opportunities in the labour market, both of which may differ between immigrants and natives. To test this hypothesis we apply a bivariate probit model to data for 2006 from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives provided by the Spanish Social Security system, containing records for over a million workers. We find that risk exposure increases the probability of permanent disability arising from any cause - by almost 5%.