The prediction of disease risk in genomic medicine

In recent years, the phrase 'genomic medicine' has increasingly been used to describe a new development in medicine that holds great promise for human health. This new approach to health care uses the knowledge of an individual's genetic make-up to identify those that are at a higher risk of developing certain diseases and to intervene at an earlier stage to prevent these diseases. Identifying genes that are involved in disease aetiology will provide researchers with tools to develop better treatments and cures. A major role within this field is attributed to 'predictive genomic medicine', which proposes screening healthy individuals to identify those who carry alleles that increase their susceptibility to common diseases, such as cancers and heart disease. Physicians could then intervene even before the disease manifests and advise individuals with a higher genetic risk to change their behaviour - for instance, to exercise or to eat a healthier diet - or offer drugs or other medical treatment to reduce their chances of developing these diseases. These promises have fallen on fertile ground among politicians, health-care providers and the general public, particularly in light of the increasing costs of health care in developed societies. Various countries have established databases on the DNA and health information of whole populations as a first step towards genomic medicine. Biomedical research has also identified a large number of genes that could be used to predict someone's risk of developing a certain disorder. But it would be premature to assume that genomic medicine will soon become reality, as many problems remain to be solved. Our knowledge about most disease genes and their roles is far from sufficient to make reliable predictions about a patient’s risk of actually developing a disease. In addition, genomic medicine will create new political, social, ethical and economic challenges that will have to be addressed in the near future.

The effects of viscous loading of the human forearm flexors on the stability of coordination

This experiment investigated whether the stability of rhythmic unimanual movements is primarily a function of perceptual/spatial orientation or neuro-mechanical in nature. Eight participants performed rhythmic flexion and extension movements of the left wrist for 30 s at a frequency of 2.25 Hz paced by an auditory metronome. Each participant performed 8 flex-on-the-beat trials and 8 extend-on-the-beat trials in one of two load conditions, loaded and unload. In the loaded condition, a servo-controlled torque motor was used to apply a small viscous load that resisted the flexion phase of the movement only. Both the amplitude and frequency of the movement generated in the loaded and unloaded conditions were statistically equivalent. However, in the loaded condition movements in which participants were required to flex-on-the-beat became less stable (more variable) while extend-on-the-beat movements remained unchanged compared with the unload condition. The small alteration in required muscle force was sufficient to result in reliable changes in movement stability even a situation where the movement kinematics were identical. These findings support the notion that muscular constraints, independent of spatial dependencies, can be sufficiently strong to reliably influence coordination in a simple unimanual task.

Geochronology of weathering and landscape evolution, Dugald River valley, NW Queensland, Australia

40Ar/39Ar laser incremental heating analyses of individual grains of supergene jarosite, alunite, and cryptomelane from weathering profiles in the Dugald River area, Queensland, Australia, show a strong positive correlation between a sample’s age and its elevation. We analyzed 125 grains extracted from 35 hand specimens collected from weathering profiles at 11 sites located at 3 distinct elevations. The highest elevation profile hosts the oldest supergene minerals, whereas progressively younger samples occur at lower positions in the landscape. The highest elevation sampling sites (three sites), located on top of an elongated mesa (255 to 275 m elevation), yield ages in the 16 to 12 Ma range. Samples from an intermediate elevation site (225 to 230 m elevation) yield ages in the 6 to 4 Ma range. Samples collected at the lowest elevation sites (200 to 220 m elevation) yield ages in the 2.2 to 0.8 Ma interval. Grains of supergene alunite, jarosite, and cryptomelane analyzed from individual single hand specimens yield reproducible results, confirming the suitability of these minerals to 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. Multiple samples collected from the same site also yield reproducible results, indicating that the ages measured are true precipitation ages for the samples analyzed. Different sites, up to 3 km apart, sampled from weathering profiles at the same elevation again yield reproducible results. The consistency of results confirms that 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of supergene jarosite, alunite, and cryptomelane yields ages of formation of weathering profiles, providing a reliable numerical basis for differentiating and correlating these profiles. The age versus elevation relationship obtained suggest that the stepped landscapes in the Dugald River area record a progressive downward migration of a relatively flat weathering front. The steps in the landscape result from differential erosion of previously weathered bedrock displaying different susceptibility to weathering and contrasting resistance to erosion. Combined, the age versus elevation relationships measured yield a weathering rate of 3.8 m. Myr−1 (for the past 15 Ma) if a descending subhorizontal weathering front is assumed. The results also permit the calculation of the erosion rate of the more easily weathered and eroded lithologies, assuming an initially flat landscape as proposed in models of episodic landscape development. The average erosion rate for the past 15 Ma is 3.3 m. Myr−1, consistent with erosion rates obtained by cosmogenic isotope studies in the region.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Spatial Technologies: What use are they to managers of environmental lands?

This paper reviews the potential use of three types of spatial technology to land managers, namely satellite imagery, satellite positioning systems and supporting computer software. Developments in remote sensing and the relative advantages of multispectral and hyperspectral images are discussed. The main challenge to the wider use of remote sensing as a land management tool is seen as uncertainty whether apparent relationships between biophysical variables and spectral reflectance are direct and causal, or artefacts of particular images. Developments in satellite positioning systems are presented in the context of land managers’ need for position estimates in situations where absolute precision may or may not be required. The role of computer software in supporting developments in spatial technology is described. Spatial technologies are seen as having matured beyond empirical applications to the stage where they are useful and reliable land management tools. In addition, computer software has become more user-friendly and this has facilitated data collection and manipulation by semi-expert as well as specialist staff.

Reducing problem behavior during care-giving in families of preschool-aged children with developmental disabilities

This study evaluated two variants of a behavioral parent training program known as Stepping Stones Triple P (SSTP) using 74 preschool-aged children with developmental disabilities. Families were randomly allocated to an enhanced parent training intervention that combined parenting skills and care-giving coping skills (SSTP-E), standard parent training intervention alone (SSTP-S) or waitlist control (WL) condition. At post-intervention, both programs were associated with lower levels of observed negative child behavior, reductions in the number of care-giving settings where children displayed problem behavior, and improved parental competence and satisfaction in the parenting role as compared with the waitlist condition. Gains attained at post-intervention were maintained at 1-year follow-up. Both interventions produced significant reductions in child problem behavior, with 67% of children in the SSTP-E and 77% of children in the SSTPS showing clinically reliable change from pre-intervention to follow-up. Parents reported a high level of satisfaction with both interventions.

Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A PCR-based method of screening individuals of all ages, from neonates to the elderly, for familial hyperaldosteronism type I

Aim: Unless specifically treated (glucocorticoids in low doses), Familial Hyperaldosteronism Type I(FH-I) may result in early death from stroke. We report the successful application of a rapid, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based method of detecting the 'hybrid' 11 beta-hydroxylase (11 beta-OHase)/aldosterone synthase (AS) gene as a screening test for FH-I. Methods: 'Long-PCR' was used to amplify, concurrently, a 4 kb fragment of AS gene (both primers AS-specific) and a 4 kb fragment of the hybrid gene (5' primer 11 beta-OHase-specific, 3'primer AS-specific) from DNA extracted from blood either collected locally or transported from elsewhere. Sample collection and transport were straightforward. This 4 kb fragment contains all the currently recognised hybrid gene 'crossover' points. Results: Within a single family, long-PCR identified all 21 individuals known to have FH-I. Hypertension was corrected in all 11 treated with glucocorticoids. Nine with normal blood pressure are being closely followed for development of hypertension. Long-PCR cord blood analysis excluded FH-I in three neonates born to affected individuals. Long-PCR newly identified two other affected families: (1) a female (60 years) with a personal and family history of stroke and her normotensive daughter (40 years), and (2) a female (51 years) previously treated for primary aldosteronism with amiloride, her two hypertensive sons (14 and 16 years) and her hypertensive mother (78 years). No false negative or false positive results have yet been encountered. At least seven other centres have successfully performed this test. Conclusion: Long-PCR is a reliable method of screening individuals of all ages for FH-I.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Thermogravimetric determination of the carbon dioxide reactivity of char from some New Zealand coals and its association with the inorganic geochemistry of the parent coal

Thermogravimetrically-determined carbon dioxide reactivities of chars formed from New Zealand coals, ranging in rank from lignite to high volatile bituminous, vary from 0.12 to 10.63 mg/h/mg on a dry, ash-free basis. The lowest rank subbituminous coal chars have similar reactivities to the lignite coal chars. Calcium content of the char shows the strongest correlation with reactivity, which increases as the calcium content increases. High calcium per se does not directly imply a high char reactivity. Organically-bound calcium catalyses the conversion of carbon to carbon monoxide in the presence of carbon dioxide, whereas calcium present as discrete minerals in the coal matrix, e.g., calcite, fails to significantly affect reactivity. Catalytic effects of magnesium, iron, sodium and phosphorous are not as obvious, but can be recognised for individual chars. The thermogravimetric technique provides a fast, reliable analysis that is able to distinguish char reactivity differences between coals, which may be due to any of the above effects. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Rapid isolation of high-quality RNA from symbiotic dinoflagellates

This report details a reliable and efficient RNA extraction protocol for the symbiotic dinoflagellate Symbiodinium microadriaticum Freudenthal (Gymnodiniales, Dinophyceae). The method typically gives yields of 500 mu g total RNA from 0.4 g wet weight of algae, and, in comparison to current protocols, it is technically simple and less time consuming. This method isolates high-quality, intact RNA from in vine cultured as well as host-isolated cells, as demonstrated by spectrophotometry, gel electrophoresis, and northern analysis. The total RNA obtained was suitable for reverse transcription and PCR amplification of Symbiodinium cDNAs. We have successfully applied our method to isolate total RNA from a different dinoflagellate, Amphidinium carterae Hulburt (Gymnodiniales, Dinophyceae), found in symbiotic association with marine invertebrates.

Adolescent reputation enhancement: Differentiating delinquent, nondelinquent, and at-risk youths

This research reports the findings of two studies conducted to measure and then investigate differences between delinquent, nondelinquent, and at-risk youths' orientations towards reputation enhancement. In the first study, concerning item selection and scale development, the factor structure and content validity of a potential Reputation Enhancement Scale were tested by examining the item responses of the scale completed by 230 high-school students. In the second study, the scale was validated by comparing the item responses of 80 delinquent, 90 at-risk, and 90 nondelinquent adolescents with the responses of the original students. The instrument was found to be reliable (alphas from .64 to .92), indicating that the factors are dependable across different samples, and the coefficients of congruence were sufficiently high to investigate meaningful group differences. Three second-order factors (Conforming Reputation, Nonconforming Reputation, Self-presentation) were derived from the 15 first-order factors. Although multivariate analyses revealed significant differences between the reputational orientations of delinquent, at-risk, and nondelinquent participants, the self-presentation second-order factor did not differentiate the three groups.

Increased ovulation rate in Merino ewes immunized against small synthetic peptide fragments of the inhibin alpha subunit

Four experiments were carried out in Merino ewes during a period of 4 years to determine the long-term effects of immunization against different synthetic peptides mimicking the amine terminal of the or subunit of porcine inhibin. Peptides were conjugated to human serum albumin and 100-200 mu g emulsified in Freund's complete adjuvant for the primary immunization. Usually two booster injections were given at monthly intervals with 50-100 mu g conjugated peptide using either incomplete Freund's adjuvant or Montanide : Marcel. In some experiments a further immunization was carried in the next year. Blood samples were taken 10 days after each immunization, during the luteal phase, for estimation of gonadotrophin concentrations and determination of inhibin antibody titres. One day after blood sampling cloprostenol was used to induce luteolysis and laparoscopy was performed in the subsequent oestrous cycle. Immunization of ewes with synthetic peptides 1-32, 1-26, 7-26 and 8-30 resulted in large increases in the ovulation rate (OR). An approximately two-fold increase in OR was observed following the first booster immunization with these peptides and a three- to five-fold increase after the second booster immunization. Immunization with these large peptides resulted in a sustained increase in OR for a period of at least 1 year after the second booster immunization. Of the shorter peptides, peptides 10-26 and 13-26 gave a reasonable ovulatory response, although it was more difficult to obtain a response with peptides 1-16, 8-22, 13-25, 8-19 and 10-19; peptides 7-13 and 1-6 gave no response (but were examined for one breeding season only). The smaller peptides led to lower inhibin antibody titres that were not necessarily associated with increased follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) or OR. More intensive blood sampling in one experiment showed that following primary immunization against peptide 1-32 there was a transient increase in plasma FSH which did not lead to an increased OR. Moreover, a prolonged period of raised FSH after the first booster was significantly correlated with increased OR. In these animals antibody titres were only slightly increased after primary immunization, but after the first booster immunization higher titres were observed that were significantly correlated with trough FSH values and the subsequent OR. These results are interpreted as showing that (1) to obtain an increase in OR peptides 1-32, 1-26 and 7-26 are suitable as immunogens; (2) smaller peptides are less reliable, often require multiple injections, and the response may be delayed; and (3) an extended period of raised plasma FSH is needed to give a large ovulatory response.

The Fornax spectroscopic survey I. Survey strategy and preliminary results on the redshift distribution of a complete sample of stars and galaxies

The Fornax Spectroscopic Survey will use the Two degree Field spectrograph (2dF) of the Angle-Australian Telescope to obtain spectra for a complete sample of all 14000 objects with 16.5 less than or equal to b(j) less than or equal to 19.7 in a 12 square degree area centred on the Fornax Cluster. The aims of this project include the study of dwarf galaxies in the cluster (both known low surface brightness objects and putative normal surface brightness dwarfs) and a comparison sample of background field galaxies. We will also measure quasars and other active galaxies, any previously unrecognised compact galaxies and a large sample of Galactic stars. By selecting all objects-both stars and galaxies-independent of morphology, we cover a much larger range of surface brightness and scale size than previous surveys. In this paper we first describe the design of the survey. Our targets are selected from UK Schmidt Telescope sky survey plates digitised by the Automated Plate Measuring (APM) facility. We then describe the photometric and astrometric calibration of these data and show that the APM astrometry is accurate enough for use with the 2dF. We also describe a general approach to object identification using cross-correlations which allows us to identify and classify both stellar and galaxy spectra. We present results from the first 2dF field. Redshift distributions and velocity structures are shown for all observed objects in the direction of Fornax, including Galactic stars? galaxies in and around the Fornax Cluster, and for the background galaxy population. The velocity data for the stars show the contributions from the different Galactic components, plus a small tail to high velocities. We find no galaxies in the foreground to the cluster in our 2dF field. The Fornax Cluster is clearly defined kinematically. The mean velocity from the 26 cluster members having reliable redshifts is 1560 +/- 80 km s(-1). They show a velocity dispersion of 380 +/- 50 km s(-1). Large-scale structure can be traced behind the cluster to a redshift beyond z = 0.3. Background compact galaxies and low surface brightness galaxies are found to follow the general galaxy distribution.