819 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Incluye Bibliografía

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A espécie Acetes marinus Omori, 1975, possui total aproveitamento alimentar constituindo-se em uma espécie de grande importância nutritiva para a população regional onde ocorre, porém, é muito pouco estudada. Visando contribuir com um melhor aproveitamento deste recurso foram realizadas coletas mensais de A. marinus durantes os meses de janeiro de 2006 a junho de 2007, em duas praias, próximas da cidade de Cametá, no baixo Tocantins. Foram determinadas a composição centesimal (%) e o teor de colesterol (mg/100g) relacionado aos parâmetros ambientais: pH, temperatura e material em suspensão da sub-superfície da água. A caracterização do desenvolvimento ovariano, baseado nas modificações macro e microscópicas. Para essas duas praias o pH médio anual foi de 7,52 ± 0,71, a temperatura foi de 26,57°C ± 1,26, e o material em suspensão foi de 73mg/L ± 65,53. Para a composição centesimal do A. marinus obteve-se: 87,1 % ± 1,1- umidade; 9,8% ±1,3-cinzas; 71% ± 1,8-proteínas; 5,4% ± 2,9-lipídios; 13,7% ± 2,6- carboidratos; 387,6% ± 13,2 Kcal-valor calórico. O teor de colesterol foi de 374,87mg/100g ± 207,08. Foi revelado um grande potencial nutricional, principalmente protéico, desta espécie, porém esta é rica em colesterol. E para o desenvolvimento ovariano foram descritos três estágios de maturação, baseados em quatro diferentes tipos de ovócitos.

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Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Microbiologia Aplicada) - IBRC

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The purpose of this study was to evaluate in vitro the shear bond strenght to bovine dentin, during 24h and 30 days with the following variables: resin cements Enforce and Panavia F; aesthetics restorative materials Art Glass, IPS Empress 2 and Targis, with surface treatment with microetching with aluminium oxide, fluoridric acid and silane. Two hundred eighty eight sound bovine teeth from 3 years old animals constituted the samples after inclusion on polyester resin box. lnstron model 430 Universal Testing Machine, a crosshead speed 0,5 mm/min and load cells of 500 Kg, was used for shear bond strenght testing (MPa). The results were statistically analysed by ANOVA The best result was obtained with /PS Empress 2, microetched with aluminium oxide, fluoridric acid and silane, cemented with Panavia F and stored in distilled water, 3f'C during 30 days

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This paper explores the contradictions between models conflicting today in Brazilian universities. The conglomeration of isolated institutions, integrated and multifunctional university and university-enterprise, service provider. This last model attempts to integrate higher education institutions to supply chains dominated by capital. Public universities were designed to provide innovative services and train staff researchers for such activity. The training of skilled workforce would be fundamentally task of private universities. But in any case, the onus would be on this training students. This model has been driven from the 1990s, with "instruction manuals" of the World Bank, and in 2000, with the IMF recommendations and, in the case of Latin American universities, Fundación Universia, sponsored by the Santander Bank. The question remains: the university will be able to organize the productive forces which have around research goals and staff training for independent development.

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We investigated the Amblyomma fuscum load on a pullulating wild rodent population and the environmental and biological factors influencing the tick load on the hosts. One hundred and three individuals of Thrichomys laurentius were caught in an Atlantic forest fragment in northeastern Brazil, as part of a longitudinal survey on ticks infesting non-volant small mammals. Ticks (n = 342) were found on 45 individuals and the overall mean intensity of infestation was 7.6 ticks per infested rodent. Ticks were highly aggregated in the host population and the negative binomial distribution model provides a statistically satisfactory fit. The aggregated distribution was influenced by sex and age of the host. The microhabitat preference by T. laurentius probably increases contact opportunities between hosts and aggregated infesting stages of the ticks and represents important clues about the habitat suitability for A. fuscum.

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The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

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Context During the past 2 decades, a major transition in the clinical characterization of psychotic disorders has occurred. The construct of a clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis has evolved to capture the prepsychotic phase, describing people presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms. The importance of this HR state has been increasingly recognized to such an extent that a new syndrome is being considered as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5. Objective To reframe the HR state in a comprehensive state-of-the-art review on the progress that has been made while also recognizing the challenges that remain. Data Sources Available HR research of the past 20 years from PubMed, books, meetings, abstracts, and international conferences. Study Selection and Data Extraction Critical review of HR studies addressing historical development, inclusion criteria, epidemiologic research, transition criteria, outcomes, clinical and functional characteristics, neurocognition, neuroimaging, predictors of psychosis development, treatment trials, socioeconomic aspects, nosography, and future challenges in the field. Data Synthesis Relevant articles retrieved in the literature search were discussed by a large group of leading worldwide experts in the field. The core results are presented after consensus and are summarized in illustrative tables and figures. Conclusions The relatively new field of HR research in psychosis is exciting. It has the potential to shed light on the development of major psychotic disorders and to alter their course. It also provides a rationale for service provision to those in need of help who could not previously access it and the possibility of changing trajectories for those with vulnerability to psychotic illnesses.

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Why do some clients use institutional services, while other, with comparable impairment, use community based services? To answer this question, a matching procedure paired clients from the two types of service provision. Sixty-six clients, ages 62 and over, were matched for functional ability as rated on a 6-item ADL scale (Katz, et al., 1970). A discriminant function analysis was performed, with the setting of service provision as the criterion variable. The results indicated that the institutional group was more likely than their community counterparts: (a) to have had previous service contact with other service providers; (b) to have less support available within the community setting from family members or friends; (c) to be more impaired in the areas of mental health and social resources.

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Infrared thermography is a well-recognized non-destructive testing technique for evaluating concrete bridge elements such as bridge decks and piers. However, overcoming some obstacles and limitations are necessary to be able to add this invaluable technique to the bridge inspector's tool box. Infrared thermography is based on collecting radiant temperature and presenting the results as a thermal infrared image. Two methods considered in conducting an infrared thermography test include passive and active. The source of heat is the main difference between these two approaches of infrared thermography testing. Solar energy and ambient temperature change are the main heat sources in conducting a passive infrared thermography test, while active infrared thermography involves generating a temperature gradient using an external source of heat other than sun. Passive infrared thermography testing was conducted on three concrete bridge decks in Michigan. Ground truth information was gathered through coring several locations on each bridge deck to validate the results obtained from the passive infrared thermography test. Challenges associated with data collection and processing using passive infrared thermography are discussed and provide additional evidence to confirm that passive infrared thermography is a promising remote sensing tool for bridge inspections. To improve the capabilities of the infrared thermography technique for evaluation of the underside of bridge decks and bridge girders, an active infrared thermography technique using the surface heating method was developed in the laboratory on five concrete slabs with simulated delaminations. Results from this study demonstrated that active infrared thermography not only eliminates some limitations associated with passive infrared thermography, but also provides information regarding the depth of the delaminations. Active infrared thermography was conducted on a segment of an out-of-service prestressed box beam and cores were extracted from several locations on the beam to validate the results. This study confirms the feasibility of the application of active infrared thermography on concrete bridges and of estimating the size and depth of delaminations. From the results gathered in this dissertation, it was established that applying both passive and active thermography can provide transportation agencies with qualitative and quantitative measures for efficient maintenance and repair decision-making.

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The welfare state in the UK presents immigrant communities with a set of institutions, which are potentially new and unknown. What is the best way to ensure that the questions of access to the welfare institutions are best managed? Trusting, understanding and feeling solidarity with the welfare state will obviously help with this problem. In order to shed light on this phenomenon, this paper presents a qualitative exploratory study dealing with elements of solidarity as perceived by members of the South Asian Community in the UK. Six indepth interviews with South Asian first generation immigrants who had never experienced mental health problems were conducted. They were asked questions about who their support networks would be in the event of them experiencing mental health problems. The thematic analysis of the interviews suggests that the respondents believed that solidarity and support ties are found to be present in families, within the south Asian community and also with welfare institutions. It is concluded that there although things are far from perfect, assimilation and integration based on dialogue is an observable positive aspect of mental health service provision in the UK.

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As Henderson and Pochin point out in the introduction to their book, recent years have seen the concept of advocacy given increasing prominence in central and local government policy in the UK. It made an appearance in local community care and long-stay hospital closure plans. It features in reforms to the health service in England and Wales, in the form of the Patient Advocacy and Liaison Services (DoH 2000), while proposed changes to the mental health system also accord a key role to service users' advocates. In addition, Valuing People, central government's proposals on the future strategy for people with learning disabilities, promised the widespread development of advocacy services (DoH 2001). Advocacy, traditionally located on the margins of state activity in the UK, is experiencing something of an attempt to shift it into mainstream policy and service provision. This makes it a significant time to review the core values and practices that have distinguished advocacy from other forms of professional and voluntary intervention and to explore how these may be preserved and developed in the contemporary context.

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Purpose – The purpose of this article is to analyse the diversity of markets for the provision of activation services. Design/methodology/approach – The article is based on the outcomes of a project involving nine European countries. The project investigated changing forms of governance of income protection schemes and activation services for unemployed people. Diversity is investigated by focusing on five dimensions of diversity derived from the quasi‐market concept as developed by Le Grand: the purchasers, the providers, the customers, the purchaser‐provider split and the purchaser‐customer split. Findings – The paper finds considerable diversity in the design of markets for the provision of activation. Diversity is visible in all dimensions involved in the analysis. One interesting finding is that a full split between purchasers and providers hardly exists, although some countries have introduced a stricter split than others. Another finding concerns the voice and choice of service consumers, which seems hardly affected by the introduction of market mechanisms in the provision of activation. Finally, marketisation does not seem to be an irreversible project, as de‐marketisation processes were identified as well. Originality/value – Most current research into activation markets and their effects pays little attention to the issue of diversity in the design and functioning of markets. This article argues in favour of more systematic research of market diversity and of the variety of effects of various market models. Rather than comparing marketised with public service provision, a stronger focus on various market models may strengthen our insight into how service provision models affect the effectiveness of activation services.

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The physical processes controlling the mixed layer salinity (MLS) seasonal budget in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated using a regional configuration of an ocean general circulation model. The analysis reveals that the MLS cycle is generally weak in comparison of individual physical processes entering in the budget because of strong compensation. In evaporative regions, around the surface salinity maxima, the ocean acts to freshen the mixed layer against the action of evaporation. Poleward of the southern SSS maxima, the freshening is ensured by geostrophic advection, the vertical salinity diffusion and, during winter, a dominant contribution of the convective entrainment. On the equatorward flanks of the SSS maxima, Ekman transport mainly contributes to supply freshwater from ITCZ regions while vertical salinity diffusion adds on the effect of evaporation. All these terms are phase locked through the effect of the wind. Under the seasonal march of the ITCZ and in coastal areas affected by river (7°S:15°N), the upper ocean freshening by precipitations and/or runoff is attenuated by vertical salinity diffusion. In the eastern equatorial regions, seasonal cycle of wind forced surface currents advect freshwaters, which are mixed with subsurface saline water because of the strong vertical turbulent diffusion. In all these regions, the vertical diffusion presents an important contribution to the MLS budget by providing, in general, an upwelling flux of salinity. It is generally due to vertical salinity gradient and mixing due to winds. Furthermore, in the equator where the vertical shear, associated to surface horizontal currents, is developed, the diffusion depends also on the sheared flow stability.

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The long-term integrity of protected areas (PAs), and hence the maintenance of related ecosystem services (ES), are dependent on the support of local people. In the present study, local people's perceptions of ecosystem services from PAs and factors that govern local preferences for PAs are assessed. Fourteen study villages were randomly selected from three different protected forest areas and one control site along the southern coast of Côte d'Ivoire. Data was collected through a mixed-method approach, including qualitative semi-structured interviews and a household survey based on hypothetical choice scenarios. Local people's perceptions of ecosystem service provision was decrypted through qualitative content analysis, while the relation between people's preferences and potential factors that affect preferences were analyzed through multinomial models. This study shows that rural villagers do perceive a number of different ecosystem services as benefits from PAs in Côte d'Ivoire. The results based on quantitative data also suggest that local preferences for PAs and related ecosystem services are driven by PAs' management rules, age, and people's dependence on natural resources.