Bayesian estimation of co-integrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates.

Threshold Error Correction Models are used to analyse the term structure of interest Rates. The paper develops and uses a generalisation of existing models that encompasses both the Band and Equilibrium threshold models of [Balke and Fomby ((1997) Threshold cointegration. Int Econ Rev 38(3):627–645)] and estimates this model using a Bayesian approach. Evidence is found for threshold effects in pairs of longer rates but not in pairs of short rates. The Band threshold model is supported in preference to the Equilibrium model.

'To move or not to move': Reflections on the resettlement of artisanal miners in the western region of Ghana

This article critically reflects upon the shortcomings of the 'Prestea Action Plan', an ambitious initiative undertaken to facilitate the resettlement of artisanal miners operating in the Western Region of Ghana. The aim of the exercise was to identify viable areas for the thousands of operators who were working illegally in the town of Prestea, an area under concession to the US-based multinational, Golden Star Resources Ltd. At the time of its launch, it was one of the few support initiatives to target artisanal miners, whose claims to land are generally not recognized by governments. It was a particularly significant exercise in Ghana because it suggested that the authorities, who traditionally have exercised a policy of non-negotiation with such groups, had finally recognized that dialogue was needed if the growing rift between the country's indigenous artisanal miners, foreign mining companies and government bodies was to be bridged. It soon emerged, however, that despite its commendable policy objectives, the Plan was fundamentally flawed-problems which would undermine the entire exercise.

Factors affecting distribution of vegetation types on abandoned cropland in the hilly-gullied Loess Plateau region of China

A study was conducted in the forest-steppe region of the Loess Plateau to provide insight into the factors affecting the process of vegetation establishment, and to provide recommendations for the selection of indigenous species in order to speed up the succession process and to allow the establishment of vegetation more resistant to soil erosion. Four distinctive vegetation types were identified, and their distribution was affected not only by the time since abandonment but also by other environmental factors, mainly soil water and total P in the upper soil layers. One of the vegetation types, dominated by Artemisia scoparia, formed the early successional stage after abandonment while the other three types formed later successional stages with their distribution determined by the soil water content and total P. It can be concluded that the selection of appropriate species for introduction to accelerate succession should be determined by the local conditions and especially the total P concentration and soil water content.

In situ degradability of dry matter and neutral-detergent fibre of thorn scrubland forage consumed by goats in the semi-arid region of north Mexico

Three goats provided with oesophageal and ruminal cannulae were used to determine variations in dry matter (DM) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) degradability of the forage consumed when grazing thorn scrubland in the semi-arid region of north Mexico, during two consecutive dry and wet periods. Ingesta samples were incubated intraruminally, the data were fitted to the exponential equation P = a + b (1-e(-ct)) and statistically analysed using a randomized-block design. Organic matter and crude protein (CP) contents were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Values of NDF were similar in dry and wet season of both years whereas higher numerical values of acid-detergent fibre (ADF), lignin and cellulose were registered in the dry seasons. DM and NDF degradabilities after 24 and 48 h of ruminal incubation were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Higher values (P < 0.05) in DM and NDF bag losses at zero time (A fraction) were registered in the two wet seasons. The insoluble but fermentable DM and NDF (B fractions) were higher (P < 0.05) in the 1999 wet season and variable in the rest of the studied period. Numerically higher values of DM and NDF c fraction were found in wet periods, whereas DM and NDF potential degradabilities were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet season in 1999 and similar across seasons in 2000. Lowest (P < 0.05) contents of CP in grazed forage, DM and NDF degradabilities after 48 h of ruminal incubation, and A, and B, and c fractions were observed in the dry seasons. Thus, these results may be related to both the lower feeding value of forage consumed by the animals and lower performance of livestock during this period. Then, the DM and NDF degradability after 48 h, together with the insoluble but fermentable matter and the c fraction permit the nutritive value of the forage consumed by grazing goats to be accurately described.

Detection of unusual mutation within the VP1 region of different re-isolates of poliovirus Sabin vaccine

In the present study, a genomic analysis of full VP1 sequence region of 15 clinical re-isolates (14 healthy vaccinees and one bone marrow tumor patient) was conducted, aiming to the identification of mutations and to the assessment of their impact on virus fitness, providing also insights relevant with the natural evolution of Sabin strains. Clinical re-isolates were analyzed by RT-PCR, sequencing and computational analysis. Some re-isolates were characterized by an unusual mutational pattern in which non-synonymous mutations outnumbered the synonymous ones. Furthermore, the majority of amino-acid substitutions were located in the capsid exterior, specifically in N-Ags, near N-Ags and in the north rim of the canyon. Also mutations, which are well-known determinants of attenuation, were identified. The results of this study propose that some re-isolates are characterized by an evolutionary pattern in which non-synonymous mutations with a direct phenotypic impact on viral fitness are fixed in viral genomes, in spite of synonymous ones with no phenotypic impact on viral fitness. Results of the present retrospective characterization of Sabin clinical re-isolates, based on the full VP1 sequence, suggest that vaccine-derived viruses may make their way through narrow breaches and may evolve into transmissible pathogens even in adequately immunized populations. For this reason increased poliovirus laboratory surveillance should be permanent and full VP1 sequence analysis should be conducted even in isolates originating from healthy vaccinees.

Modern approaches to floristics and their impact on the region of SW Asia

Attitudes to floristics have changed considerably during the past few decades as a result of increasing and often more focused consumer demands, heightened awareness of the threats to biodiversity, information flow and overload, and the application of electronic and web-based techniques to information handling and processing. This paper will examine these concerns in relation to our floristic knowledge and needs in the region of SW Asia. Particular reference will be made to the experience gained from the Euro+Med PlantBase project for the preparation of an electronic plant-information system for Europe and the Mediterranean, with a single core list of accepted plant names and synonyms, based on consensus taxonomy agreed by a specialist network. The many challenges Ð scientific, technical and organisational Ð that it has presented will be discussed as well as the problems of handling nontaxonomic information from fields such as conservation, karyology, biosystematics and mapping. The question of regional cooperation and the sharing of efforts and resources will also be raised and attention drawn to the recent planning workshop held in Rabat (May 2002) for establishing a technical cooperation network for taxonomic capacity building in North Africa as a possible model for the SW Asia region.

How does the brain mediate interpretation of incongruent auditory emotions? The neural response to prosody in the presence of conflicting lexico-semantic cues

We frequently encounter conflicting emotion cues. This study examined how the neural response to emotional prosody differed in the presence of congruent and incongruent lexico-semantic cues. Two hypotheses were assessed: (i) decoding emotional prosody with conflicting lexico-semantic cues would activate brain regions associated with cognitive conflict (anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) or (ii) the increased attentional load of incongruent cues would modulate the activity of regions that decode emotional prosody (right lateral temporal cortex). While the participants indicated the emotion conveyed by prosody, functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired on a 3T scanner using blood oxygenation level-dependent contrast. Using SPM5, the response to congruent cues was contrasted with that to emotional prosody alone, as was the response to incongruent lexico-semantic cues (for the 'cognitive conflict' hypothesis). The right lateral temporal lobe region of interest analyses examined modulation of activity in this brain region between these two contrasts (for the 'prosody cortex' hypothesis). Dorsolateral prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortex activity was not observed, and neither was attentional modulation of activity in right lateral temporal cortex activity. However, decoding emotional prosody with incongruent lexico-semantic cues was strongly associated with left inferior frontal gyrus activity. This specialist form of conflict is therefore not processed by the brain using the same neural resources as non-affective cognitive conflict and neither can it be handled by associated sensory cortex alone. The recruitment of inferior frontal cortex may indicate increased semantic processing demands but other contributory functions of this region should be explored.

Characterization and classification of tumor lesions using computerized fractal-based texture analysis and support vector machines in digital mammograms

Objective: This paper presents a detailed study of fractal-based methods for texture characterization of mammographic mass lesions and architectural distortion. The purpose of this study is to explore the use of fractal and lacunarity analysis for the characterization and classification of both tumor lesions and normal breast parenchyma in mammography. Materials and methods: We conducted comparative evaluations of five popular fractal dimension estimation methods for the characterization of the texture of mass lesions and architectural distortion. We applied the concept of lacunarity to the description of the spatial distribution of the pixel intensities in mammographic images. These methods were tested with a set of 57 breast masses and 60 normal breast parenchyma (dataset1), and with another set of 19 architectural distortions and 41 normal breast parenchyma (dataset2). Support vector machines (SVM) were used as a pattern classification method for tumor classification. Results: Experimental results showed that the fractal dimension of region of interest (ROIs) depicting mass lesions and architectural distortion was statistically significantly lower than that of normal breast parenchyma for all five methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that fractional Brownian motion (FBM) method generated the highest area under ROC curve (A z = 0.839 for dataset1, 0.828 for dataset2, respectively) among five methods for both datasets. Lacunarity analysis showed that the ROIs depicting mass lesions and architectural distortion had higher lacunarities than those of ROIs depicting normal breast parenchyma. The combination of FBM fractal dimension and lacunarity yielded the highest A z value (0.903 and 0.875, respectively) than those based on single feature alone for both given datasets. The application of the SVM improved the performance of the fractal-based features in differentiating tumor lesions from normal breast parenchyma by generating higher A z value. Conclusion: FBM texture model is the most appropriate model for characterizing mammographic images due to self-affinity assumption of the method being a better approximation. Lacunarity is an effective counterpart measure of the fractal dimension in texture feature extraction in mammographic images. The classification results obtained in this work suggest that the SVM is an effective method with great potential for classification in mammographic image analysis.

Investigation of K14/K5 as a stem cell marker in the limbal region of the bovine cornea

Background: Identification of stem cells from a corneal epithelial cell population by specific molecular markers has been investigated previously. Expressions of P63, ABCG2 and K14/K5 have all been linked to mammalian corneal epithelial stem cells. Here we report on the limitations of K14/K5 as a limbal stem cell marker. Methodology/Principal Findings: K14/K5 expression was measured by immunohistochemistry, Western blotting and Real time PCR and compared between bovine epithelial cells in the limbus and central cornea. A functional study was also included to investigate changes in K5/14 expression within cultured limbal epithelial cells undergoing forced differentiation. K14 expression (or its partner K5) was detected in quiescent epithelial cells from both the limbal area and central cornea. K14 was localized predominantly to basal epithelial cells in the limbus and suprabasal epithelial cells in the central cornea. Western blotting revealed K14 expression in both limbus and central cornea (higher levels in the limbus). Similarly, quantitative real time PCR found K5, partner to K14, to be expressed in both the central cornea and limbus. Following forced differentiation in culture the limbal epithelial cells revealed an increase in K5/14 gene/protein expression levels in concert with a predictable rise in a known differentiation marker. Conclusions/Significance: K14 and its partner K5 are limited not only to the limbus but also to the central bovine cornea epithelial cells suggesting K14/K5 is not limbal specific in situ. Furthermore K14/K5 expression levels were not lowered (in fact they increased) within a limbal epithelial cell culture undergoing forced differentiation suggesting K14/K5 is an unreliable maker for undifferentiated cells ex vivo.

An assessment of the MODIS collection 5 leaf area index product for a region of mixed coniferous forest

Canopy leaf area index (LAI), defined as the single-sided leaf area per unit ground area, is a quantitative measure of canopy foliar area. LAI is a controlling biophysical property of vegetation function, and quantifying LAI is thus vital for understanding energy, carbon and water fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. LAI is routinely available from Earth Observation (EO) instruments such as MODIS. However EO-derived estimates of LAI require validation before they are utilised by the ecosystem modelling community. Previous validation work on the MODIS collection 4 (c4) product suggested considerable error especially in forested biomes, and as a result significant modification of the MODIS LAI algorithm has been made for the most recent collection 5 (c5). As a result of these changes the current MODIS LAI product has not been widely validated. We present a validation of the MODIS c5 LAI product over a 121 km2 area of mixed coniferous forest in Oregon, USA, based on detailed ground measurements which we have upscaled using high resolution EO data. Our analysis suggests that c5 shows a much more realistic temporal LAI dynamic over c4 values for the site we examined. We find improved spatial consistency between the MODIS c5 LAI product and upscaled in situ measurements. However results also suggest that the c5 LAI product underestimates the upper range of upscaled in situ LAI measurements.

‘Everyone now is concentrating on the mining’: drivers and implications of rural economic transition in the Eastern Region of Ghana

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is replacing smallholder farming as the principal income source in parts of rural Ghana. Structural adjustment policies have removed support for the country’s smallholders, devalued their produce substantially and stiffened competition with large-scale counterparts. Over one million people nationwide are now engaged in ASM. Findings from qualitative research in Ghana’s Eastern Region are drawn upon to improve understanding of the factors driving this pattern of rural livelihood diversification. The ASM sector and farming are shown to be complementary, contrary to common depictions in policy and academic literature.