Ornamental plants as climatic indicators of arthropod vectors

The importance and risk of vector-borne diseases (e.g., leishmaniasis, West Nile Virus, Lyme borreliosis) is going to increase in the European temperate areas due to climate change. Our previous studies have shown that the potential distribution of Leishmania infantum and some Phlebotomus (sand fly) species – a parasite of leishmaniasis, and its vectors – may be expanded even to the southern coastline of the Baltic Sea by the end of the 21st century. The lowland areas of the Carpathian Basin and the main part of Hungary are projected to be suitable for the studied sand fly vectors in the near future. It is important to find some indicator plants to examine whether the sand flies are able to live in a certain climate at a certain time. We studied several Mediterranean and Sub-Mediterranean plant species, and we found that the aggregated distribution of three ligneous species (Juniperus oxycedrus L., Quercus ilex L. and Pinus brutia Ten.) shows high correlation with the union distribution of five sand flies (Phlebotomus ariasi Tonn., Ph. neglectus Tonn., Ph. perfiliewi Parrot, Ph. perniciosus Newst. and Ph. tobbi Adler, Theodor et Lourie). Since these Mediterranean species are highly tolerant of the edaphic characteristics of the planting site, they may prove to be good indicators. The present and upcoming climate of Hungary is seen to be suitable for the selected indicator plant species, and it draws attention to and verifies the potential of the expansion of sand flies, which has been proved by some recent observations of the vectors in Southern Hungary.

Climate variability in the Aegean Sea (marine record M2, Athos basin) during the past 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 °C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ?D 'unknown' and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Palynomorphs from the Lateglacial and Holocene of the Mt-Athos Basin, Aegean Sea

To unravel the climatic and environmental dynamics in the borderlands of the Aegean Sea during the early and middle Holocene, and notably for the interval of sapropel S1 (S1) formation, we have analysed terrestrial palynomorphs from a marine core in the northern Aegean Sea. The qualitative results were complemented by quantitative pollen-based climate reconstructions. A land-sea correlation was established based on pollen data and sediment lightness measurements from the same core, and previously published benthic foraminifer data from a nearby core. The borderlands of the Aegean Sea underwent a transition from an open vegetation to oak-dominated woodlands between ~10.4 and ~9.5 ka cal BP. A coeval increase in winter precipitation suggests that moisture availability was the main factor controlling Holocene reforestation. The ~50% higher winter precipitation during S1 formation relative to "pre-sapropelic" conditions suggests a strong contribution from the borderlands of the Aegean Sea to the freshwater surplus during S1 formation. The humid and mild winter conditions during S1 formation were repeatedly punctuated by short-term climatic events that caused a partial deforestation and a reorganisation within the broad-leaved arboreal vegetation. In the marine realm, these events are documented by improved benthic oxygenation. The strongest event represents the regional expression of the 8.2 ka cold event and led to an interruption in S1 formation. Except for the interval of S1 formation, the pollen-derived winter temperatures correlate with the smoothed GISP2 K+ series. They support the previously published, marine-based concept that the intensity of the Siberian High strongly controlled the winter climate in the Aegean region. During S1 formation in the Aegean Sea, however, climate conditions in the borderlands were more strongly affected by the monsoonally influenced climate system of the lower latitudes.