Describing and communicating uncertainty within the semantic web

The Semantic Web relies on carefully structured, well defined, data to allow machines to communicate and understand one another. In many domains (e.g. geospatial) the data being described contains some uncertainty, often due to incomplete knowledge; meaningful processing of this data requires these uncertainties to be carefully analysed and integrated into the process chain. Currently, within the SemanticWeb there is no standard mechanism for interoperable description and exchange of uncertain information, which renders the automated processing of such information implausible, particularly where error must be considered and captured as it propagates through a processing sequence. In particular we adopt a Bayesian perspective and focus on the case where the inputs / outputs are naturally treated as random variables. This paper discusses a solution to the problem in the form of the Uncertainty Markup Language (UncertML). UncertML is a conceptual model, realised as an XML schema, that allows uncertainty to be quantified in a variety of ways i.e. realisations, statistics and probability distributions. UncertML is based upon a soft-typed XML schema design that provides a generic framework from which any statistic or distribution may be created. Making extensive use of Geography Markup Language (GML) dictionaries, UncertML provides a collection of definitions for common uncertainty types. Containing both written descriptions and mathematical functions, encoded as MathML, the definitions within these dictionaries provide a robust mechanism for defining any statistic or distribution and can be easily extended. Universal Resource Identifiers (URIs) are used to introduce semantics to the soft-typed elements by linking to these dictionary definitions. The INTAMAP (INTeroperability and Automated MAPping) project provides a use case for UncertML. This paper demonstrates how observation errors can be quantified using UncertML and wrapped within an Observations & Measurements (O&M) Observation. The interpolation service uses the information within these observations to influence the prediction outcome. The output uncertainties may be encoded in a variety of UncertML types, e.g. a series of marginal Gaussian distributions, a set of statistics, such as the first three marginal moments, or a set of realisations from a Monte Carlo treatment. Quantifying and propagating uncertainty in this way allows such interpolation results to be consumed by other services. This could form part of a risk management chain or a decision support system, and ultimately paves the way for complex data processing chains in the Semantic Web.

Support for paediatric prescribers:what is discussed at hospital board level?

Prescribing support tools range from traditional printed texts to state-of-the-art computerised decision support systems. Comparison between available literature is difficult due to country-specific resources often being the focus of the research. In the UK, it is widely accepted that hospitals take their own individualised approaches to reducing prescribing errors. Objective - This study focused on specialist paediatric hospitals. It aimed to identify the localised approaches taken by paediatric hospitals to reduce prescribing errors. Method - Applied thematic analysis was used to explore the publically published board meeting minutes from the four specialist stand-alone paediatric hospitals in England. Three years of data was collected from each hospital. Codes were collected into groups to identify themes from the data. Results - The main themes identified were clinician involvement in prescribing support is important; credit card-sized reminder tools are used to provide prescribing guidance; electronic prescribing is considered important for reducing prescribing errors; feedback from clinical pharmacists on prescribing errors is widely used; junior doctors require extra support when prescribing; medical records may be incomplete and specific prescribing support (eg, antibiotic prescribing support) is widely in use. Conclusions - There is no single collaborative approach taken to paediatric prescribing support in English paediatric hospitals. Success of electronic prescribing in English paediatric hospitals is considerably behind leaders such as the USA. Use of clinical pharmacists to support prescribers is important as supported by previous studies in Spain and the USA.

Vezetői döntéshozatal és versenyképesség (The managerial decision making and the competitiveness)

A tanulmány a vezetői döntéshozatal három lényeges aspektusát tárja fel. A Versenyben a világgal c. kutatási program eredményei alapján arra lehet következtetni, hogy a menedzserek döntéshozatali képességei és megközelítései, a vállalati teljesítménymérés és menedzsment döntéseket támogató szerepe, valamint a vállalatok érintettekhez fűződő viszonya meghatározó lehet a hatékony vezetői döntéshozatal során. A vállalati döntéshozatal jellemzőinek bemutatása után megvizsgáljuk azt is, hogy a különböző teljesítményű cégek döntéseit mennyire támogatja a menedzserek felkészültsége, a teljesítménymérési gyakorlat és az érintettek elvárásai. A szerzők úgy találták, hogy a fenti tényezők mindegyike hozzájárul a hazai cégek versenyképességéhez, általánosságban ugyanis elmondható, hogy a döntéseket támogató vállalati környezet jobb üzleti teljesítményhez és gyorsabb reagálóképességhez vezethet. Az eredmények összegzése mellett ajánlásokkal is éltek a vállalatok számára, amelyek alkalmazásával hatékonyabb döntéseket hozhatnak. _______ This study presents three main aspects of the managerial decision making. Based on the results of the research program In competition with the World it points to the fact that decision making abilities and approaches of the managers, the corporate performance appraisal and the management decision support role, and the corporate relations to the stakeholders will be determinant in the process of the efficient managerial decision making. After presentation of characteristics of the corporate decision making the authors examine that how the decisions of enterprises with different performances are supported by the preparedness of the managers, the performance appraisal practice and the stakeholders expectations. The authors have thought that every factor contributes to the competitiveness of the domestic enterprises, and generally the decision supporting corporate environment can lead to better business performance and faster responsive abilities. Besides the results summary the authors give useful recommendations to the corporations with which they can make more efficient decisions.

Decision aids for people considering taking part in clinical trials

Peer reviewed

MACVIA clinical decision algorithm in adolescents and adults with allergic rhinitis

Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pb and Ba concentrations and Pb isotope ratios in EPICA Dome C ice 2-217 ky BP

A record of Pb isotopic compositions and Pb and Ba concentrations are presented for the EPICA Dome C ice core covering the past 220 ky, indicating the characteristics of dust and volcanic Pb deposition in central East Antarctica. Lead isotopic compositions are also reported in a suite of soil and loess samples from the Southern Hemisphere (Australia, Southern Africa, Southern South America, New Zealand, Antarctica) in order to evaluate the provenance of dust present in Antarctic ice. Lead isotopic compositions in Dome C ice support the contention that Southern South America was an important source of dust in Antarctica during the last two glacial maxima, and furthermore suggest occasional dust contributions from local Antarctic sources. The isotopic signature of Pb in Antarctic ice is altered by the presence of volcanic Pb, inhibiting the evaluation of glacial-interglacial changes in dust sources and the evaluation of Australia as a source of dust to Antarctica. Consequently, an accurate evaluation of the predominant source(s) of Antarctic dust can only be obtained from glacial maxima, when dust-Pb concentrations were greatest. These data confirm that volcanic Pb is present throughout Antarctica and is emitted in a physical phase that is free from Ba, while dust Pb is transported within a matrix containing Ba and other crustal elements.

A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Exercise Prescription for Patients with Non-specific Chronic Low Back Pain: a Qualitative Study of Patients' Experiences in Decision Making

Background The culture of current clinical practice calls for collaboration between therapists and patients, sharing power and responsibility. This paper reports on the findings of a qualitative study of exercise prescription for patients with NSCLBP, taking into account issues such as decision making and how this accords with patient preferences and experiences. Objective To understand the treatment decision making experiences, information and decision support needs of patients with NSCLBP who have been offered exercise as part of their management plan. Design A qualitative study using a philosophical hermeneutic approach. Methods Semi-structured interviews with eight patients (including use of brief patient vignettes) was undertaken to explore their personal experiences of receiving exercise as part of the management of their NSCLBP, and their involvement in decisions regarding their care. Findings The findings provide a detailed insight into patients’ perceptions and experiences of receiving exercise-based management strategies. Four themes were formed from the texts: (1) patients’ expectations and patients’ needs are not synonymous, (2) information is necessary but often not sufficient, (3) not all decisions need to be shared, and (4) wanting to be treated as an individual. Conclusions Shared decision making did not appear to happen in physiotherapy clinical practice, but equally may not be what every patient wants. The overall feeling of the patients was that the therapist was dominant in structuring the interactions, leaving the patients feeling disempowered to question and contribute to the decision making.

A generic method of engagement to elicit regional coastal management options

Stakeholder engagement is important for successful management of natural resources, both to make effective decisions and to obtain support. However, in the context of coastal management, questions remain unanswered on how to effectively link decisions made at the catchment level with objectives for marine biodiversity and fisheries productivity. Moreover, there is much uncertainty on how to best elicit community input in a rigorous manner that supports management decisions. A decision support process is described that uses the adaptive management loop as its basis to elicit management objectives, priorities and management options using two case studies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The approach described is then generalised for international interest. A hierarchical engagement model of local stakeholders, regional and senior managers is used. The result is a semi-quantitative generic elicitation framework that ultimately provides a prioritised list of management options in the context of clearly articulated management objectives that has widespread application for coastal communities worldwide. The case studies show that demand for local input and regional management is high, but local influences affect the relative success of both engagement processes and uptake by managers. Differences between case study outcomes highlight the importance of discussing objectives prior to suggesting management actions, and avoiding or minimising conflicts at the early stages of the process. Strong contributors to success are a) the provision of local information to the community group, and b) the early inclusion of senior managers and influencers in the group to ensure the intellectual and time investment is not compromised at the final stages of the process. The project has uncovered a conundrum in the significant gap between the way managers perceive their management actions and outcomes, and community's perception of the effectiveness (and wisdom) of these same management actions.

Estudo empírico de antecedentes do sucesso de sistemas de informação: análise de um sistema de apoio à decisão em uma universidade pública

Universities are institutions that generate and manipulate large amounts of data as a result of the multiple functions they perform, of the amount of involved professionals and students they attend. Information gathered from these data is used, for example, for operational activities and to support decision-making by managers. To assist managers in accomplishing their tasks, the Information Systems (IS) are presented as tools that offer features aiming to improve the performance of its users, assist with routine tasks and provide support to decision-making. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the influence of the users features and of the task in the success of IS. The study is of a descriptive-exploratory nature, therefore, the constructs used to define the conceptual model of the research are known and previously validated. However, individual features of users and of the task are IS success antecedents. In order to test the influence of these antecedents, it was developed a decision support IS that uses the Multicriteria Decision Aid Constructivist (MCDA-C) methodology with the participation and involvement of users. The sample consisted of managers and former managers of UTFPR Campus Pato Branco who work or have worked in teaching activities, research, extension and management. For data collection an experiment was conducted in the computer lab of the Campus Pato Branco in order to verify the hypotheses of the research. The experiment consisted of performing a distribution task of teaching positions between the academic departments using the IS developed. The task involved decision-making related to management activities. The data that fed the system used were real, from the Campus itself. A questionnaire was answered by the participants of the experiment in order to obtain data to verify the research hypotheses. The results obtained from the data analysis partially confirmed the influence of the individual features in IS success and fully confirmed the influence of task features. The data collected failed to support significant ratio between the individual features and the individual impact. For many of the participants the first contact with the IS was during the experiment, which indicates the lack of experience with the system. Regarding the success of IS, the data revealed that there is no significance in the relationship between Information Quality (IQ) and Individual Impact (II). It is noteworthy that the IS used in the experiment is to support decision-making and the information provided by this system are strictly quantitative, which may have caused some conflict in the analysis of the criteria involved in the decision-making process. This is because the criteria of teaching, research, extension and management are interconnected such that one reflects on another. Thus, the opinion of the managers does not depend exclusively on quantitative data, but also of knowledge and value judgment that each manager has about the problem to be solved.

EasyInterface: a toolkit for the rapid development of GUIs for research prototype tools

During the lifetime of a research project, different partners develop several research prototype tools that share many common aspects. This is equally true for researchers as individuals and as groups: during a period of time they often develop several related tools to pursue a specific research line. Making research prototype tools easily accessible to the community is of utmost importance to promote the corresponding research, get feedback, and increase the tools’ lifetime beyond the duration of a specific project. One way to achieve this is to build graphical user interfaces (GUIs) that facilitate trying tools; in particular, with web-interfaces one avoids the overhead of downloading and installing the tools. Building GUIs from scratch is a tedious task, in particular for web-interfaces, and thus it typically gets low priority when developing a research prototype. Often we opt for copying the GUI of one tool and modifying it to fit the needs of a new related tool. Apart from code duplication, these tools will “live” separately, even though we might benefit from having them all in a common environment since they are related. This work aims at simplifying the process of building GUIs for research prototypes tools. In particular, we present EasyInterface, a toolkit that is based on novel methodology that provides an easy way to make research prototype tools available via common different environments such as a web-interface, within Eclipse, etc. It includes a novel text-based output language that allows to present results graphically without requiring any knowledge in GUI/Web programming. For example, an output of a tool could be (a structured version of) “highlight line number 10 of file ex.c” and “when the user clicks on line 10, open a dialog box with the text ...”. The environment will interpret this output and converts it to corresponding visual e_ects. The advantage of using this approach is that it will be interpreted equally by all environments of EasyInterface, e.g., the web-interface, the Eclipse plugin, etc. EasyInterface has been developed in the context of the Envisage [5] project, and has been evaluated on tools developed in this project, which include static analyzers, test-case generators, compilers, simulators, etc. EasyInterface is open source and available at GitHub2.

Modelling and analysing cargo screening processes: a project outline

The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is unknown as no benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturer benchmarks exist for individual sensors but we have not found any benchmarks that take a holistic view of the screening procedures assessing a combination of sensors and also taking operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. For such systems more advanced assessment methods need to be used, taking into account that the cargo screening process is of a dynamic and stochastic nature. Our project aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximize detection rates. In this paper we present a project outline and highlight the research challenges we have identified so far. In addition we introduce our first case study, where we investigate the cargo screening process at the ferry port in Calais.

Exact solutions for the agricultural and the two-dimensional packing problems

Objectives and study method: The objective of this study is to develop exact algorithms that can be used as management tools for the agricultural production planning and to obtain exact solutions for two of the most well known twodimensional packing problems: the strip packing problem and the bin packing problem. For the agricultural production planning problem we propose a new hierarchical scheme of three stages to improve the current agricultural practices. The objective of the first stage is to delineate rectangular and homogeneous management zones into the farmer’s plots considering the physical and chemical soil properties. This is an important task because the soil properties directly affect the agricultural production planning. The methodology for this stage is based on a new method called “Positions and Covering” that first generates all the possible positions in which the plot can be delineated. Then, we use a mathematical model of linear programming to obtain the optimal physical and chemical management zone delineation of the plot. In the second stage the objective is to determine the optimal crop pattern that maximizes the farmer’s profit taken into account the previous management zones delineation. In this case, the crop pattern is affected by both management zones delineation, physical and chemical. A mixed integer linear programming is used to solve this stage. The objective of the last stage is to determine in real-time the amount of water to irrigate in each crop. This stage takes as input the solution of the crop planning stage, the atmospheric conditions (temperature, radiation, etc.), the humidity level in plots, and the physical management zones of plots, just to name a few. This procedure is made in real-time during each irrigation period. A linear programming is used to solve this problem. A breakthrough happen when we realize that we could propose some adaptations of the P&C methodology to obtain optimal solutions for the two-dimensional packing problem and the strip packing. We empirically show that our methodologies are efficient on instances based on real data for both problems: agricultural and two-dimensional packing problems. Contributions and conclusions: The exact algorithms showed in this study can be used in the making-decision support for agricultural planning and twodimensional packing problems. For the agricultural planning problem, we show that the implementation of the new hierarchical approach can improve the farmer profit between 5.27% until 8.21% through the optimization of the natural resources. An important characteristic of this problem is that the soil properties (physical and chemical) and the real-time factors (climate, humidity level, evapotranspiration, etc.) are incorporated. With respect to the two-dimensional packing problems, one of the main contributions of this study is the fact that we have demonstrate that many of the best solutions founded in literature by others approaches (heuristics approaches) are the optimal solutions. This is very important because some of these solutions were up to now not guarantee to be the optimal solutions.

Aplicaciones de los modelos de predicción bio-inspirados en la administración

Las organizaciones y sus entornos son sistemas complejos. Tales sistemas son difíciles de comprender y predecir. Pese a ello, la predicción es una tarea fundamental para la gestión empresarial y para la toma de decisiones que implica siempre un riesgo. Los métodos clásicos de predicción (entre los cuales están: la regresión lineal, la Autoregresive Moving Average y el exponential smoothing) establecen supuestos como la linealidad, la estabilidad para ser matemática y computacionalmente tratables. Por diferentes medios, sin embargo, se han demostrado las limitaciones de tales métodos. Pues bien, en las últimas décadas nuevos métodos de predicción han surgido con el fin de abarcar la complejidad de los sistemas organizacionales y sus entornos, antes que evitarla. Entre ellos, los más promisorios son los métodos de predicción bio-inspirados (ej. redes neuronales, algoritmos genéticos /evolutivos y sistemas inmunes artificiales). Este artículo pretende establecer un estado situacional de las aplicaciones actuales y potenciales de los métodos bio-inspirados de predicción en la administración.

Modelos de transferência de metal pesado na cana-de-açúcar adubada com composto de lixo urbano

The research approaches recycling of urban waste compost (UWC) as an alternative fertilizer for sugarcane crop and as a social and environmental solution to the solids residuals growth in urban centers. A mathematical model was used in order to know the metal dynamics as decision support tool, aiming to establish of criteria and procedures for UWC's safe use, limited by the amount of heavy metal. A compartmental model was developed from experimental data in controlled conditions and partially checked with field data. This model described the heavy metal transference in the system soil-root-aerial portion of sugarcane plants and concluded that nickel was metal to be concern, since it takes approximately three years to be attenuated in the soil, reaching the aerial portions of the plant at high concentrations. Regarding factors such as clay content, oxide level and soil pH, it was observed that for soil with higher buffering capacity, the transfer of the majority of the metals was slower. This model may become an important tool for the attainment of laws regarding the UWC use, aiming to reduce environment contamination the waste accumulation and production costs.