Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Autism Support Program Annual Report, December 2015

The Autism Support Program provides funding for applied behavioral analysis services for children under the age of nine who meet certain diagnostic and financial eligibility criteria.

Investigation of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design/DARWin-ME Performance Prediction Models for Iowa Pavement Analysis and Design, 2015

The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was developed under National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 1-37A as a novel mechanistic-empirical procedure for the analysis and design of pavements. The MEPDG was subsequently supported by AASHTO’s DARWin-ME and most recently marketed as AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software as of February 2013. Although the core design process and computational engine have remained the same over the years, some enhancements to the pavement performance prediction models have been implemented along with other documented changes as the MEPDG transitioned to AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software. Preliminary studies were carried out to determine possible differences between AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design, MEPDG (version 1.1), and DARWin-ME (version 1.1) performance predictions for new jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP), new hot mix asphalt (HMA), and HMA over JPCP systems. Differences were indeed observed between the pavement performance predictions produced by these different software versions. Further investigation was needed to verify these differences and to evaluate whether identified local calibration factors from the latest MEPDG (version 1.1) were acceptable for use with the latest version (version 2.1.24) of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design at the time this research was conducted. Therefore, the primary objective of this research was to examine AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design performance predictions using previously identified MEPDG calibration factors (through InTrans Project 11-401) and, if needed, refine the local calibration coefficients of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design pavement performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems using linear and nonlinear optimization procedures. A total of 130 representative sections across Iowa consisting of JPCP, new HMA, and HMA over JPCP sections were used. The local calibration results of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design are presented and compared with national and locally calibrated MEPDG models.

Computer Analysis of Twin Box Culverts, 1959

The paper presents a method of analyzing Rigid Frames by use of the Conjugate Beam Theory. The development of the method along with an example is given. This method has been used to write a computer program for the analysis of twin box culverts. The culverts may be analyzed under any fill height and any of the standard truck loadings. The wall and slab thickness are increased by the computer program as necessary. The final result is steel requirements both for moment and shear, and the slab and wall thickness.

Reconciling phonological neighborhood effects in speech production through single trial analysis

A crucial step for understanding how lexical knowledge is represented is to describe the relative similarity of lexical items, and how it influences language processing. Previous studies of the effects of form similarity on word production have reported conflicting results, notably within and across languages. The aim of the present study was to clarify this empirical issue to provide specific constraints for theoretical models of language production. We investigated the role of phonological neighborhood density in a large-scale picture naming experiment using fine-grained statistical models. The results showed that increasing phonological neighborhood density has a detrimental effect on naming latencies, and re-analyses of independently obtained data sets provide supplementary evidence for this effect. Finally, we reviewed a large body of evidence concerning phonological neighborhood density effects in word production, and discussed the occurrence of facilitatory and inhibitory effects in accuracy measures. The overall pattern shows that phonological neighborhood generates two opposite forces, one facilitatory and one inhibitory. In cases where speech production is disrupted (e.g. certain aphasic symptoms), the facilitatory component may emerge, but inhibitory processes dominate in efficient naming by healthy speakers. These findings are difficult to accommodate in terms of monitoring processes, but can be explained within interactive activation accounts combining phonological facilitation and lexical competition.

The INTERMED questionnaire for predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

Matrix Analytic Analysis of Delays in Communication Systems

Tässä päättötyössä annetaan kuvaus kehitetystä sovelluksesta Quasi Birth Death processien ratkaisuun. Tämä ohjelma on tähän mennessä ainutlaatuinen ja sen avulla voi ratkaista sarjan tehtäviä ja sitä tarvitaan kommunikaatio systeemien analyysiin. Mainittuun sovellukseen on annettu kuvaus ja määritelmä. Lyhyt kuvaus toisesta sovelluksesta Quasi Birth Death prosessien tehtävien ratkaisuun on myös annettu

Radiographic volume analysis as a novel tool to determine nasopalatine duct cyst dimensions and its association with presenting symptoms and postoperative complications.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study were to use cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images of nasopalatine duct cysts (NPDC) and to calculate the diameter, surface area, and 3D-volume using a custom-made software program. Furthermore, any associations of dimensions of NPDC with age, gender, presence/absence of maxillary incisors/canines (MI/MC), endodontic treatment of MI/MC, presenting symptoms, and postoperative complications were evaluated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study comprised 40 patients with a histopathologically confirmed NPDC. On preoperative CBCT scans, curves delineating the cystic borders were drawn in all planes and the widest diameter (in millimeter), surface area (in square millimeter), and volume (in cubic millimeter) were calculated. RESULTS: The overall mean cyst diameter was 15 mm (range 7-47 mm), the mean cyst surface area 566 mm(2) (84-4,516 mm(2)), and the mean cyst volume 1,735 mm(3) (65-25,350 mm(3)). For 22 randomly allocated cases, a second measurement resulted in a mean absolute aberration of ±4.2 % for the volume, ±2.8 % for the surface, and ±4.9 % for the diameter. A statistically significant association was found for the CBCT determined cyst measurements and the need for preoperative endodontic treatment to MI/MC and for postoperative complications. CONCLUSION: In the hands of a single experienced operator, the novel software exhibited high repeatability for measurements of cyst dimensions. Further studies are needed to assess the application of this tool for dimensional analysis of different jaw cysts and lesions including treatment planning. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Accurate radiographic information of the bone volume lost (osteolysis) due to expansion of a cystic lesion in three dimensions could help in personalized treatment planning.

Mercury analysis in hair: comparability and quality assessment within the transnational COPHES/DEMOCOPHES project

Human biomonitoring (HBM) is an effective tool for assessing actual exposure to chemicals that takes into account all routes of intake. Although hair analysis is considered to be an optimal biomarker for assessing mercury exposure, the lack of harmonization as regards sampling and analytical procedures has often limited the comparison of data at national and international level. The European-funded projects COPHES and DEMOCOPHES developed and tested a harmonized European approach to Human Biomonitoring in response to the European Environment and Health Action Plan. Herein we describe the quality assurance program (QAP) for assessing mercury levels in hair samples from more than 1800 mother-child pairs recruited in 17 European countries. To ensure the comparability of the results, standard operating procedures (SOPs) for sampling and for mercury analysis were drafted and distributed to participating laboratories. Training sessions were organized for field workers and four external quality-assessment exercises (ICI/EQUAS), followed by the corresponding web conferences, were organized between March 2011 and February 2012. ICI/EQUAS used native hair samples at two mercury concentration ranges (0.20-0.71 and 0.80-1.63) per exercise. The results revealed relative standard deviations of 7.87-13.55% and 4.04-11.31% for the low and high mercury concentration ranges, respectively. A total of 16 out of 18 participating laboratories the QAP requirements and were allowed to analyze samples from the DEMOCOPHES pilot study. Web conferences after each ICI/EQUAS revealed this to be a new and effective tool for improving analytical performance and increasing capacity building. The procedure developed and tested in COPHES/DEMOCOPHES would be optimal for application on a global scale as regards implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Regional Science trends through the analysis of the main facts of the 51st ERSA Conference

The 51st ERSA Conference held in Barcelona in 2011 was one of the largest ever. By examining the characteristics of the conference, this paper identifies the main trends in Regional Science and draws on a broad array of sources of information: the delegates" demographic details, the conference program itself, a satisfaction survey conducted among delegates, a quality survey addressed to those chairing the sessions and, finally, a bibliometric database including each author signing a paper presented at the conference. We finally run a regression analysis from which we show that for ERSA delegates what matters most is quality, and this must be the direction that future conferences should move toward. Ultimately, ERSA conferences are comprehensive, all-embracing occasions, representing an ideal opportunity for regional scientists to present their work to each other and to network.

Learning on human resources management in the radiology residency program

Objective To investigate the process of learning on human resource management in the radiology residency program at Escola Paulista de Medicina – Universidade Federal de São Paulo, aiming at improving radiologists' education. Materials and Methods Exploratory study with a quantitative and qualitative approach developed with the faculty staff, preceptors and residents of the program, utilizing a Likert questionnaire (46), taped interviews (18), and categorization based on thematic analysis. Results According to 71% of the participants, residents have clarity about their role in the development of their activities, and 48% said that residents have no opportunity to learn how to manage their work in a multidisciplinary team. Conclusion Isolation at medical records room, little interactivity between sectors with diversified and fixed activities, absence of a previous culture and lack of a training program on human resources management may interfere in the development of skills for the residents' practice. There is a need to review objectives of the medical residency in the field of radiology, incorporating, whenever possible, the commitment to the training of skills related to human resources management thus widening the scope of abilities of the future radiologists.

Conforma: a program for determining ring conformations and puckering coordinates

A program (CONFORMA) was developed to calculate ring puckering coordinates using Cremer and Pople's (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 1975, 97, 1354) methodology, which quantifies the conformation of five or more atom rings. The program performs, also, a conformational analysis based on these results.

Customer relationship management through life cycle analysis, case professional service firm in B2B market

The objective of this master’s thesis was to study how customer relationships should be assessed and categorized in order to support customer relationship management (CRM) in the context of business-to-business (B2B) and professional services. This sophisticated and complex market is utilizing possibilities of CRM only rarely and even then the focus is often on technology. The theoretical part considered first CRM from the value chain point of view and then discussed the cyclical nature of relationships. The case study focused on B2B professional service firm. The data was collected from company databases and included the sample of 90 customers. The research was conducted in three phases first studying the age, then the service type of relationships and finally executing the cluster analysis. The data was analysed by statistical analysis program SAS Enterprise Guide. The results indicate that there are great differences between developments of customer relationships. While some relationships are dynamically growing and changing, most of customers are remaining constant. This implies expectations and requirements of customers are similarly divergent and relationships should be managed accordingly.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Agricultural engineering at UNICAMP: undergraduate student dropout analysis

Nowadays, dropping out in B.Sc. courses practically occurs in all Universities of the contemporary world. Undergraduate student withdraw could means several losses as, to the student, not to graduate, to the teacher, for not accomplishing his goal as educator, to the university, for not attending its mission, to the society, economic and social losses and also to the family for unfulfilling the dreams. The objective of this research is to present a quantitative study on the dropping out rate in the Agricultural Engineering B.Sc. program (BSAGENG) at State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), seeking to contribute to the understanding of this issue. It has been determined the dropping out rate from 1995 to 2006 based on the university official data, by employing four different methods of calculation. Three of the methods revealed that dropping out rate is very close to the graduation index, i.e., close to 50%. Regardless of the adopted method for the dropping rate estimation and the statistics demonstrating that the agricultural engineering undergraduate course at UNICAMP figures falls within similar courses normality in Brazil, it should be recognized that a public institution of education should be concerned in presenting such figures. A detailed and deep analysis must be outlined in further studies seeking for specific actions aiming to reduce dropping out process.