Mimicking the behaviour of idiotypic AIS robot controllers using probabilistic systems

Previous work has shown that robot navigation systems that employ an architecture based upon the idiotypic network theory of the immune system have an advantage over control techniques that rely on reinforcement learning only. This is thought to be a result of intelligent behaviour selection on the part of the idiotypic robot. In this paper an attempt is made to imitate idiotypic dynamics by creating controllers that use reinforcement with a number of different probabilistic schemes to select robot behaviour. The aims are to show that the idiotypic system is not merely performing some kind of periodic random behaviour selection, and to try to gain further insight into the processes that govern the idiotypic mechanism. Trials are carried out using simulated Pioneer robots that undertake navigation exercises. Results show that a scheme that boosts the probability of selecting highly-ranked alternative behaviours to 50% during stall conditions comes closest to achieving the properties of the idiotypic system, but remains unable to match it in terms of all round performance.

Early consumption of liquids different to breast milk in Mexican infants under 1 year: results of the probabilistic National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012

Introduction: Studies on infant dietary intake do not generally focus on the types of liquids consumed. Objective: To document by age and breastfeeding status, the types of liquids present in the diet of Mexican children under 1 year of age (< 1 y) who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012 (ENSANUT-2012). Methods: Analysis of the infant < 1 y feeding practices from the ENSANUT-2012 survey in non-breastfed (non-BF) and breastfed (BF) infants by status quo for the consumption of liquids grouped in: water, formula, fortified LICONSA milk, nutritive liquids (NL; thin cereal-based gruel with water or milk and coffee with milk) and non-nutritive liquids (non-NL) as sugared water, water-based drinks, tea, beans or chicken broth, aguamiel and coffee. In this infants < 1 y we analyzed the not grouped consumption of liquids in the first three days of life (newborns) from the mother's recall. Percentage and confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated adjusting for survey design. Statistical differences were analyzed by Z test. Results: We observed a high consumption of human milk followed by formula (56.7%) and water (51.1%) in infants under 6 months of age (< 6 mo). The proportion of non-BF infants consuming non-NL was higher than for BF infants (p < 0.05). More than 60% of older infants (6 mo and < 1 y) consumed formula and were non-BF. In newborns formula consumption was predominant, followed by tea or infusion and water. Conclusions: Non-breast milk liquids are present undesirably in Mexican infants' diet and non-NL are consumed earlier than NL, revealing inadequate early dietary practices.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

Cultural Heritage and Mobile Robotics Technologies

This paper reviews current research works at the authors’ Institutions to illustrate how mobile robotics and related technologies can be used to enhance economical fruition, control, protection and social impact of the cultural heritage. Robots allow experiencing on-line, from remote locations, tours at museums, archaeological areas and monuments. These solutions avoid travelling costs, increase beyond actual limits the number of simultaneous visitors, and prevent possible damages that can arise by over-exploitation of fragile environments. The same tools can be used for exploration and monitoring of cultural artifacts located in difficult to reach or dangerous areas. Examples are provided by the use of underwater robots in the exploration of deeply submerged archaeological areas. Besides, technologies commonly employed in robotics can be used to help exploring, monitoring and preserving cultural artifacts. Examples are provided by the development of procedures for data acquisition and mapping and by object recognition and monitoring algorithms.

Jointly event extraction and visualization on Twitter via probabilistic modelling

Event extraction from texts aims to detect structured information such as what has happened, to whom, where and when. Event extraction and visualization are typically considered as two different tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on probabilistic modelling to jointly extract and visualize events from tweets where both tasks benefit from each other. We model each event as a joint distribution over named entities, a date, a location and event-related keywords. Moreover, both tweets and event instances are associated with coordinates in the visualization space. The manifold assumption that the intrinsic geometry of tweets is a low-rank, non-linear manifold within the high-dimensional space is incorporated into the learning framework using a regularization. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can effectively deal with both event extraction and visualization and performs remarkably better than both the state-of-the-art event extraction method and a pipeline approach for event extraction and visualization.

Probabilistic Security Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow Models

In restructured power systems, generation and commercialization activities became market activities, while transmission and distribution activities continue as regulated monopolies. As a result, the adequacy of transmission network should be evaluated independent of generation system. After introducing the constrained fuzzy power flow (CFPF) as a suitable tool to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy 'reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity' (as stated, for instance, at European Directive 2009/72/EC), the aim is now showing how this approach can be used in conjunction with probabilistic criteria in security analysis. In classical security analysis models of power systems are considered the composite system (generation plus transmission). The state of system components is usually modeled with probabilities and loads (and generation) are modeled by crisp numbers, probability distributions or fuzzy numbers. In the case of CFPF the component’s failure of the transmission network have been investigated. In this framework, probabilistic methods are used for failures modeling of the transmission system components and possibility models are used to deal with 'reasonable demands'. The enhanced version of the CFPF model is applied to an illustrative case.

A probabilistic approach to user mobility prediction for wireless services.

Mobile and wireless networks have long exploited mobility predictions, focused on predicting the future location of given users, to perform more efficient network resource management. In this paper, we present a new approach in which we provide predictions as a probability distribution of the likelihood of moving to a set of future locations. This approach provides wireless services a greater amount of knowledge and enables them to perform more effectively. We present a framework for the evaluation of this new type of predictor, and develop 2 new predictors, HEM and G-Stat. We evaluate our predictors accuracy in predicting future cells for mobile users, using two large geolocation data sets, from MDC [11], [12] and Crawdad [13]. We show that our predictors can successfully predict with as low as an average 2.2% inaccuracy in certain scenarios.

Robust Adaptive Control with Applications to Multi-Agent Systems and Mobile Robotics

This thesis deals with robust adaptive control and its applications, and it is divided into three main parts. The first part is about the design of robust estimation algorithms based on recursive least squares. First, we present an estimator for the frequencies of biased multi-harmonic signals, and then an algorithm for distributed estimation of an unknown parameter over a network of adaptive agents. In the second part of this thesis, we consider a cooperative control problem over uncertain networks of linear systems and Kuramoto systems, in which the agents have to track the reference generated by a leader exosystem. Since the reference signal is not available to each network node, novel distributed observers are designed so as to reconstruct the reference signal locally for each agent, and therefore decentralizing the problem. In the third and final part of this thesis, we consider robust estimation tasks for mobile robotics applications. In particular, we first consider the problem of slip estimation for agricultural tracked vehicles. Then, we consider a search and rescue application in which we need to drive an unmanned aerial vehicle as close as possible to the unknown (and to be estimated) position of a victim, who is buried under the snow after an avalanche event. In this thesis, robustness is intended as an input-to-state stability property of the proposed identifiers (sometimes referred to as adaptive laws), with respect to additive disturbances, and relative to a steady-state trajectory that is associated with a correct estimation of the unknown parameter to be found.

Electrospun hierarchical artificial muscle for soft robotics applications

Nowadays, one of the most ambitious challenges in soft robotics is the development of actuators capable to achieve performance comparable to skeletal muscles. Scientists have been working for decades, inspired by Nature, to mimic both their complex structure and their perfectly balanced features in terms of linear contraction, force-to-weight ratio, scalability and flexibility. The present Thesis, contextualized within the FET open Horizon 2020 project MAGNIFY, aims to develop a new family of innovative flexible actuators in the field of soft-robotics. For the realization of this actuator, a biomimetic approach has been chosen, drawing inspiration from skeletal muscle. Their hierarchical fibrous structure was mimicked employing the electrospinning technique, while the contraction of sarcomeres was designed employing chains of molecular machines, supramolecular systems capable of performing movements useful to execute specific tasks. The first part deals with the design and production of the basic unit of the artificial muscle, the artificial myofibril, consisting in a novel electrospun core-shell nanofiber, with elastomeric shell and electrically conductive core, coupled with a conductive coating, for the realization of which numerous strategies have been investigated. The second part deals instead with the integration of molecular machines (provided by the project partners) inside these artificial myofibrils, preceded by the study of several model molecules, aimed at simulating the presence of these molecular machines during the initial phases of the project. The last part concerns the realization of an electrospun multiscale hierarchical structure, aimed at reproducing the entire muscle morphology and fibrous organization. These research will be joined together in the near future like the pieces of a puzzle, recreating the artificial actuator most similar to biological muscle ever made, composed of millions of artificial myofibrils, electrically activated in which the nano-scale movement of molecular machines will be incrementally amplified to the macro-scale contraction of the artificial muscle.

Robotics and neurodevelopmental disorder: design and implementation of a system of engagement metrics in human-robot interactions.

In the recent decades, robotics has become firmly embedded in areas such as education, teaching, medicine, psychology and many others. We focus here on social robotics; social robots are designed to interact with people in a natural and interpersonal way, often to achieve positive results in different applications. To interact and cooperate with humans in their daily-life activities, robots should exhibit human-like intelligence. The rapid expansion of social robotics and the existence of various kinds of robots on the market have allowed research groups to carry out multiple experiments. The experiments carried out have led to the collections of various kinds of data, which can be used or processed for psychological studies, and studies in other fields. However, there are no tools available in which data can be stored, processed and shared with other research groups. This thesis proposes the design and implementation of visual tool for organizing dataflows in Human Robot Interaction (HRI).

Analysis of human posterior EEG alpha frequency as a function of implicit learning of probabilistic lateralized stimuli in a visual detection task

Alpha oscillatory activity has long been associated with perceptual and cognitive processes related to attention control. The aim of this study is to explore the task-dependent role of alpha frequency in a lateralized visuo-spatial detection task. Specifically, the thesis focuses on consolidating the scientific literature's knowledge about the role of alpha frequency in perceptual accuracy, and deepening the understanding of what determines trial-by-trial fluctuations of alpha parameters and how these fluctuations influence overall task performance. The hypotheses, confirmed empirically, were that different implicit strategies are put in place based on the task context, in order to maximize performance with optimal resource distribution (namely alpha frequency, associated positively with performance): “Lateralization” of the attentive resources towards one hemifield should be associated with higher alpha frequency difference between contralateral and ipsilateral hemisphere; “Distribution” of the attentive resources across hemifields should be associated with lower alpha frequency difference between hemispheres; These strategies, used by the participants according to their brain capabilities, have proven themselves adaptive or maladaptive depending on the different tasks to which they have been set: "Distribution" of the attentive resources seemed to be the best strategy when the distribution probability between hemifields was balanced: i.e. the neutral condition task. "Lateralization" of the attentive resources seemed to be more effective when the distribution probability between hemifields was biased towards one hemifield: i.e., the biased condition task.

[gait Speed, Grip Strength And Self-rated Health Among The Elderly: Data From The Fibra Campinas Network, São Paulo, Brazil].

The article seeks to investigate patterns of performance and relationships between grip strength, gait speed and self-rated health, and investigate the relationships between them, considering the variables of gender, age and family income. This was conducted in a probabilistic sample of community-dwelling elderly aged 65 and over, members of a population study on frailty. A total of 689 elderly people without cognitive deficit suggestive of dementia underwent tests of gait speed and grip strength. Comparisons between groups were based on low, medium and high speed and strength. Self-related health was assessed using a 5-point scale. The males and the younger elderly individuals scored significantly higher on grip strength and gait speed than the female and oldest did; the richest scored higher than the poorest on grip strength and gait speed; females and men aged over 80 had weaker grip strength and lower gait speed; slow gait speed and low income arose as risk factors for a worse health evaluation. Lower muscular strength affects the self-rated assessment of health because it results in a reduction in functional capacity, especially in the presence of poverty and a lack of compensatory factors.

[do Elderly Individuals With A Cognitive Handicap Have Worse Oral Health?].

A comparison of the oral health of elderly people with and without a cognitive handicap was assessed. The cognitive condition, the indices of decayed, missing, filled teeth (DMFT), decayed, filled roots (DFR), the need for dental treatment, the presence of plaque (P), calculus (C), the community periodontal index (CPI), the rate of periodontal attachment loss (PAL), edentulism, prosthetic use and the need for prosthetics were evaluated in a complex probabilistic sample by conglomerates of the elderly (65-74 years). PASW(r) 17.0 was used for the statistical analyses with correction for the design effect, applying the Mann Whitney and chi-square test with 95% reliability. A total of 736 elderly individuals were interviewed and examined. Those with cognitive impairment had higher average DMFT, DFR and lower average healthy sextant CPI, a lower prevalence of sextants without plaque/calculus, use of prosthetics and higher prevalence of edentulism and need for prosthetics. Elderly individuals with a cognitive handicap had poorer oral health.