910 resultados para Probabilistic interpretation


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This chapter offers a fresh critique of the approach taken by the International Court of Justice to the relationship between humanitarian law and human rights law. In so doing, it seeks to move beyond the intractable debates that have dominated this area, offering an original account of the relationship that is firmly grounded in general international law concepts of treaty interpretation.

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Interpretation biases have been shown to play a role in adult depression and are a target in cognitive behavioural therapy. Adolescence is a key risk period for the development of depression and a period of rapid cognitive and emotional development but little research has investigated the relationship between interpretation biases and depression in adolescents. This study adapted a measure of interpretation bias, the Ambiguous Scenarios Test for Depression, for adolescents and evaluated its reliability and validity. A community sample of 206 young people aged 12 to 18 years completed a validated measure of depression symptoms (Mood and Feelings Questionnaires) and the adapted Ambiguous Scenarios Test. The Ambiguous Scenarios Test for Depression in Adolescents had good internal consistency and split half reliability. Depression symptoms were associated with participants’ ratings of the valence of ambiguous situations and with interpretation biases. Importantly, symptoms of depression and anxiety were independently associated with interpretation bias. This research suggests that interpretation biases can be measured in this age group, that negative interpretation biases exist in adolescents and that these are associated with depression symptoms.

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In vitro fermentation techniques (IVFT) have been widely used to evaluate the nutritivevalue of feeds for ruminants and in the last decade to assess the effect of different nutritionalstrategies on methane (CH4) production. However, many technical factors may influencethe results obtained. The present review has been prepared by the ‘Global Network’ FACCE-JPI international research consortium to provide a critical evaluation of the main factorsthat need to be considered when designing, conducting and interpreting IVFT experimentsthat investigate nutritional strategies to mitigate CH4emission from ruminants. Given theincreasing and wide-scale use of IVFT, there is a need to critically review reports in the lit-erature and establish what criteria are essential to the establishment and implementationof in vitro techniques. Key aspects considered include: i) donor animal species and numberof animal used, ii) diet fed to donor animals, iii) collection and processing of rumen fluidas inoculum, iv) choice of substrate and incubation buffer, v) incubation procedures andCH4measurements, vi) headspace gas composition and vii) comparability of in vitro andin vivo measurements. Based on an evaluation of experimental evidence, a set of techni-cal recommendations are presented to harmonize IVFT for feed evaluation, assessment ofrumen function and CH4production.

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Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

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We investigate the critical behaviour of a probabilistic mixture of cellular automata (CA) rules 182 and 200 (in Wolfram`s enumeration scheme) by mean-field analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that as we switch off one CA and switch on the other by the variation of the single parameter of the model, the probabilistic CA (PCA) goes through an extinction-survival-type phase transition, and the numerical data indicate that it belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour. The PCA displays a characteristic stationary density profile and a slow, diffusive dynamics close to the pure CA 200 point that we discuss briefly. Remarks on an interesting related stochastic lattice gas are addressed in the conclusions.

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We report 6 K-Ar ages and paleomagnetic data from 28 sites collected in Jurassic, Lower Cretaceous and Paleocene rocks of the Santa Marta massif, to test previous hypothesis of rotations and translations of this massif, whose rock assemblage differs from other basement-cored ranges adjacent to the Guyana margin. Three magnetic components were identified in this study. A first component has a direction parallel to the present magnetic field and was uncovered in all units (D 352, I = 25.6, k = 57.35, a95 = 5.3, N = 12). A second component was isolated in Cretaceous limestone and Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks (D = 8.8, I = 8.3, k = 24.71, a95 = 13.7, N = 6), and it was interpreted as of Early Cretaceous age. In Jurassic sites with this component, Early Cretaceous K-Ar ages obtained from this and previous studies are interpreted as reset ages. The third component was uncovered in eight sites of Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks, and its direction indicates negative shallow to moderate inclinations and northeastward declinations. K-Ar ages in these sites are of Early (196.5 +/- 4.9 Ma) to early Late Jurassic age (156.6 +/- 8.9 Ma). Due to local structural complexity and too few Cretaceous outcrops to perform a reliable unconformity test, we only used two sites with (1) K-Ar ages, (2) less structural complexity, and (3) reliable structural data for Jurassic and Cretaceous rocks. The mean direction of the Jurassic component is (D = 20.4, I = -18.2, k = 46.9, a95 = 5.1, n = 18 specimens from two sites). These paleomagnetic data support previous models of northward along-margin translations of Grenvillian-cored massifs. Additionally, clockwise vertical-axis rotation of this massif, with respect to the stable craton, is also documented; the sense of rotation is similar to that proposed for the Perija Range and other ranges of the southern Caribbean margin. More data is needed to confirm the magnitudes of rotations and translations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This article presents a study of how contemporary Swedish lower secondary school textbooks present the emergence of the Cold War and how 10 active lower secondary school history teachers interpreted a quotation that was ambiguous in relation to the general narrative in the studied Swedish textbooks, seeking to analyse textbooks both from the perspectives of content and reception. Applying a theoretical framework of uses of history, the study finds that the narratives presented in the studied textbooks are what could be called traditional in the sense that they do not acknowledge perspective and representation in history. While the interviewed teachers generally acknowledged that textbook narratives are representations of history and contingent on perspective, few teachers extended this to include how their own views affect their interpretations, suggesting an intermediary appreciation of the contextual contingency of historical narratives.

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The present study is an interpretation of the two myths copied in the Old Babylonian period in which the Sumerian mother goddess is one of the main actors. The first myth is commonly called “Enki and Ninḫursaĝa”, and the second “Enki and Ninmaḫ”. The theoretical point of departure is that myths have society as their referents, i.e. they are “talking about” society, and that this is done in an ideological way. This study aims at investigating on the one hand which contexts in the Mesopotamian society each section of the myths refers to, and on the other hand which ideological aspects that the myths express in terms of power relations. The myths are contextualized in relation to their historical and social setting. If the myth for example deals with working men, male work in the area during the relevant period is discussed. The same method of contextualization is used regarding marriage, geographical points of reference and so on. Also constellations of mythical ideas are contextualized, through comparison with similar constellations in other Mesopotamian myths. Besides the method of contextualization, the power relations in the myths are investigated. According to this latter method, the categories at issue, their ranking, as well as their changed ranking, are noted. The topics of the myths are issues important for the kingship and the country, such as irrigation, trade, health and healing, birth, collective work, artisanry and rivalry. All these aspects are used in order to express what the power relations between the goddess Ninḫursaĝa/Ninmaḫ and the god Enki look like. The relations are negotiated and recalibrated, which leads to the goddess getting a lowered status. Part of the negotiations and recalibrations is gender behavior, which is related to historical developments in society. The present work points to the function of these myths as tools of recalibrating not only deities, but also men and women in society.