975 resultados para Predictive-value
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Epidemiological studies in urban areas have linked increasing respiratory and cardiovascular pathologies with atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from anthropic activities. However, the biological fate of metal-rich PM industrial emissions in urban areas of developed countries remains understudied. Lead toxicity and bioaccessibility assessments were therefore performed on emissions from a lead recycling plant, using complementary chemical acellular tests and toxicological assays, as a function of PM size (PM(10-2.5), PM(2.5-1) and PM(1)) and origin (furnace, refining and channeled emissions). Process PM displayed differences in metal content, granulometry, and percentage of inhalable fraction as a function of their origin. Lead gastric bioaccessibility was relatively low (maximum 25%) versus previous studies; although, because of high total lead concentrations, significant metal quantities were solubilized in simulated gastrointestinal fluids. Regardless of origin, the finest PM(1) particles induced the most significant pro-inflammatory response in human bronchial epithelial cells. Moreover, this biological response correlated with pro-oxidant potential assay results, suggesting some biological predictive value for acellular tests. Pulmonary effects from lead-rich PM could be driven by thiol complexation with either lead ions or directly on the particulate surface. Finally, health concern of PM was discussed on the basis of pro-inflammatory effects, accellular test results, and PM size distribution.
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Although both inflammatory and atherosclerosis markers have been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, data directly comparing their predictive value are limited. The authors compared the value of 2 atherosclerosis markers (ankle-arm index (AAI) and aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV)) and 3 inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)) in predicting CHD events. Among 2,191 adults aged 70-79 years at baseline (1997-1998) from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study cohort, the authors examined adjudicated incident myocardial infarction or CHD death ("hard" events) and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization (total CHD events). During 8 years of follow-up between 1997-1998 and June 2007, 351 participants developed total CHD events (197 "hard" events). IL-6 (highest quartile vs. lowest: hazard ratio = 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.33, 2.49; P-trend < 0.001) and AAI (AAI </= 0.9 vs. AAI 1.01-1.30: hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.14, 2.18) predicted CHD events above traditional risk factors and modestly improved global measures of predictive accuracy. CRP, TNF-alpha, and aPWV had weaker associations. IL-6 and AAI accurately reclassified 6.6% and 3.3% of participants, respectively (P's </= 0.05). Results were similar for "hard" CHD, with higher reclassification rates for AAI. IL-6 and AAI are associated with future CHD events beyond traditional risk factors and modestly improve risk prediction in older adults.
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PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.
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Purpose: To determine whether the need for retreatment after an initial phase of 3 monthly intravitreal injections of ranibizumab shows an intra-individual regular rhythm and to what degree it varies between different patients. Methods: Prospective study with 42 patients with exudative AMD, treatment naïve. Loading dose of 3 monthly doses of ranibizumab (0,5 mg), followed by a 12 months pro re nata (PRN) regimen according to early exudative signs on HD-OCT Cirrus, Zeiss. The follow-up visits were intensified (week 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20, etc after each injection) in order to detect recurrences early, and injection followed within 3 days in cases of subretinal fluid, cysts, or central thickness increase of>50microns. Intervals were calculated between injections for the 12 month follow-up with PRN treatment. Variability was expressed as standard deviation (SD). Results: Visual acuity (VA) improved from a mean ETDRS score of 61.6 (SD 10.8) at baseline to 68.0 (SD 10.2) at month 3 and to 74.7(SD 9.0) at month 12. The 15 patients who have already completed the study showed maintenance of the VA improvement. Central foveal thickness improved from a mean value of 366 microns (baseline) to 253 microns (month 3), well maintained thereafter. Mean number of injections was 8.8 (SD 3.5,range 0-12) per 12 months of follow-up (after 3 doses), with mean individual treatment-recurrence (TR) intervals ranging from 28->365 days (mean 58). Intraindividual variability of TR intervals (SD) was 7.1 days as a mean value (range 1.7¡V22.6). It ranged within 20% of the mean intra-individual interval for 30 (91%) and within 15% for 21 patients (64%). The first interval was within 1 week of the mean intra-individual interval in 64% and within 2 weeks in 89% of patients. Conclusions: The majority of AMD patients showed a relatively stable rhythm for PRN injections of ranibizumab after initial loading phase, associated with excellent functional/anatomical results. The initial interval last loading dose-first recurrence may have a predictive value for further need of treatment, potentially facilitating follow-up and patient care.
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Abstract Purpose: To test the hypothesis that simultaneous closure of at least 2 independent vascular territories supplying the spinal cord and/or prolonged hypotension may be associated with symptomatic spinal cord ischemia (SCI) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR). Methods: A pattern matching algorithm was used to develop a risk model for symptomatic SCI using a prospective 63-patient single-center cohort to test the positive predictive value (PPV) of prolonged intraoperative hypotension and/or simultaneous closure of at least 2 of 4 the vascular territories supplying the spinal cord (left subclavian, intercostal, lumbar, and hypogastric arteries). This risk model was then applied to data extracted from the multicenter European Registry on Endovascular Aortic Repair Complications (EuREC). Between 2002 and 2010, the 19 centers participating in EuREC reported 38 (1.7%) cases of symptomatic spinal cord ischemia among the 2235 patients in the database. Results: In the single-center cohort, direct correlations were seen between the occurrence of symptomatic SCI and both prolonged intraoperative hypotension (PPV 1.00, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.00, p = 0.04) and simultaneous closure of at least 2 independent spinal cord vascular territories (PPV 0.67, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.91, p = 0.005). Previous closure of a single vascular territory was not associated with an increased risk of symptomatic spinal cord ischemia (PPV 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.16, p = 0.56). The combination of prolonged hypotension and simultaneous closure of at least 2 territories exhibited the strongest association (PPV 0.75, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.75, p<0.0001). Applying the model to the entire EuREC cohort found an almost perfect agreement between the predicted and observed risk factors (kappa 0.77, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.90). Conclusion: Extensive coverage of intercostal arteries alone by a thoracic stent-graft is not associated with symptomatic SCI; however, simultaneous closure of at least 2 vascular territories supplying the spinal cord is highly relevant, especially in combination with prolonged intraoperative hypotension. As such, these results further emphasize the need to preserve the left subclavian artery during TEVAR.
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INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.
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Essential hypertension is a multifactorial disorder and is the main risk factor for renal and cardiovascular complications. The research on the genetics of hypertension has been frustrated by the small predictive value of the discovered genetic variants. The HYPERGENES Project investigated associations between genetic variants and essential hypertension pursuing a 2-stage study by recruiting cases and controls from extensively characterized cohorts recruited over many years in different European regions. The discovery phase consisted of 1865 cases and 1750 controls genotyped with 1M Illumina array. Best hits were followed up in a validation panel of 1385 cases and 1246 controls that were genotyped with a custom array of 14 055 markers. We identified a new hypertension susceptibility locus (rs3918226) in the promoter region of the endothelial NO synthase gene (odds ratio: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37-1.73]; combined P=2.58 · 10(-13)). A meta-analysis, using other in silico/de novo genotyping data for a total of 21 714 subjects, resulted in an overall odds ratio of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.25-1.44; P=1.032 · 10(-14)). The quantitative analysis on a population-based sample revealed an effect size of 1.91 (95% CI: 0.16-3.66) for systolic and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.25-2.55) for diastolic blood pressure. We identified in silico a potential binding site for ETS transcription factors directly next to rs3918226, suggesting a potential modulation of endothelial NO synthase expression. Biological evidence links endothelial NO synthase with hypertension, because it is a critical mediator of cardiovascular homeostasis and blood pressure control via vascular tone regulation. This finding supports the hypothesis that there may be a causal genetic variation at this locus.
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CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.
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BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.
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The DNA repair enzyme O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) antagonizes the genotoxic effects of alkylating agents. MGMT promoter methylation is the key mechanism of MGMT gene silencing and predicts a favorable outcome in patients with glioblastoma who are exposed to alkylating agent chemotherapy. This biomarker is on the verge of entering clinical decision-making and is currently used to stratify or even select glioblastoma patients for clinical trials. In other subtypes of glioma, such as anaplastic gliomas, the relevance of MGMT promoter methylation might extend beyond the prediction of chemosensitivity, and could reflect a distinct molecular profile. Here, we review the most commonly used assays for evaluation of MGMT status, outline the prerequisites for standardized tests, and evaluate reasons for difficulties in reproducibility. We critically discuss the prognostic and predictive value of MGMT silencing, reviewing trials in which patients with different types of glioma were treated with various chemotherapy schedules, either up-front or at recurrence. Standardization of MGMT testing requires comparison of different technologies across laboratories and prospectively validated cut-off values for prognostic or predictive effects. Moreover, future clinical trials will need to determine, for each subtype of glioma, the degree to which MGMT promoter methylation is predictive or prognostic, and whether testing should become routine clinical practice.
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The aim of this study was to develop an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the serological diagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle. We used available recombinant forms of Trichophyton rubrum dipeptidyl peptidase V (TruDppV) and T. rubrum leucin aminopeptidase 2 (TruLap2), which are 98% identical to Trichophyton verrucosum orthologues. Field serum samples from 135 cattle with ringworm infection, as confirmed by direct microscopy, fluorescence microscopy, and PCR, and from 55 cattle without any apparent skin lesions or history of ringworm infection that served as negative controls were used. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values were determined to evaluate the diagnostic value of our ELISA. Overall, the ELISAs based on recombinant TruDppV and TruLap2 discriminated well between infected animals and healthy controls. Highly significant differences (P < 0.0001, Mann-Whitney U test) were noted between optical density values obtained when sera from infected versus control cattle were tested. The ELISA developed for the detection of specific antibodies against DppV gave 89.6% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity, a 96.8% positive predictive value, and a 78.4% negative predictive value. The recombinant TruLap2-based ELISA displayed 88.1% sensitivity, 90.9% specificity, a 95.9% positive predictive value, and a 75.7% negative predictive value. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ELISA based on recombinant antigens for assessing immune responses to ringworm infection in cattle; it is particularly suitable for epidemiological studies and also for the evaluation of vaccines and/or vaccination procedures.
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BACKGROUND: Reactive electroencephalography (EEG) background during therapeutic hypothermia (TH) is related to favorable prognosis after cardiac arrest (CA), but its predictive value is not 100 %. The aim of this study was to investigate outcome predictors after a first reactive EEG recorded during TH after CA. METHODS: We studied a cohort of consecutive comatose adults admitted between February 2008 and November 2012, after successful resuscitation from CA, selecting patients with reactive EEG during TH. Outcome was assessed at three months, and categorized as survivors and non-survivors (no patient was in vegetative state). Demographics, clinical variables, EEG features, serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and procalcitonin, were compared using uni- and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: A total of 290 patients were treated with TH after cardiac arrest; 146 had an EEG during TH, which proved reactive in 90 of them; 77 (86 %) survived and 13 (14 %) died (without recovery from coma). The group of non-survivors had a higher occurrence of discontinuous EEG (p = 0.006; multivariate analysis p = 0.026), and a higher serum NSE peak (p = 0.021; multivariate analysis p = 0.014); conversely, demographics, and other clinical variables including serum procalcitonin did not differ. CONCLUSIONS: A discontinuous EEG and high serum NSE are associated with mortality after CA in patients with poor outcome despite a reactive hypothermic EEG. This suggests more severe cerebral damage, but not to higher extent of systemic disease.
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OBJECTIVES: Therapeutic hypothermia and pharmacological sedation may influence outcome prediction after cardiac arrest. The use of a multimodal approach, including clinical examination, electroencephalography, somatosensory-evoked potentials, and serum neuron-specific enolase, is recommended; however, no study examined the comparative performance of these predictors or addressed their optimal combination. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Adult ICU of an academic hospital. PATIENTS: One hundred thirty-four consecutive adults treated with therapeutic hypothermia after cardiac arrest. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Variables related to the cardiac arrest (cardiac rhythm, time to return of spontaneous circulation), clinical examination (brainstem reflexes and myoclonus), electroencephalography reactivity during therapeutic hypothermia, somatosensory-evoked potentials, and serum neuron-specific enolase. Models to predict clinical outcome at 3 months (assessed using the Cerebral Performance Categories: 5 = death; 3-5 = poor recovery) were evaluated using ordinal logistic regressions and receiving operator characteristic curves. Seventy-two patients (54%) had a poor outcome (of whom, 62 died), and 62 had a good outcome. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression identified absence of electroencephalography reactivity (p < 0.001), incomplete recovery of brainstem reflexes in normothermia (p = 0.013), and neuron-specific enolase higher than 33 μg/L (p = 0.029), but not somatosensory-evoked potentials, as independent predictors of poor outcome. The combination of clinical examination, electroencephalography reactivity, and neuron-specific enolase yielded the best predictive performance (receiving operator characteristic areas: 0.89 for mortality and 0.88 for poor outcome), with 100% positive predictive value. Addition of somatosensory-evoked potentials to this model did not improve prognostic accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Combination of clinical examination, electroencephalography reactivity, and serum neuron-specific enolase offers the best outcome predictive performance for prognostication of early postanoxic coma, whereas somatosensory-evoked potentials do not add any complementary information. Although prognostication of poor outcome seems excellent, future studies are needed to further improve prediction of good prognosis, which still remains inaccurate.
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PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.