Recanalization and Collaterals Predict Outcome in Proximal MCA Occlusion, but neither Penumbra nor Core of Stroke

Data on new predictors of outcome include penumbra core or collaterals.Objective: To test the predictive value of recanalization, collaterals, penumbra and core of ischemia for functional outcome in a large group of patients with MCA occlusion. Method: Consecutive events included prospectively in the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne from April 2002 to April 2009 with an acute stroke due to proximal MCA occlusion (M1) were considered for analysis. Acute CTA were reviewed to grade the collaterals (dichotomized in poor __50% or good _50% compared to the normal side) and localization of M1 occlusion (proximal or mid-distal). Acute CTP were reviewed and reconstructed to determine penumbra, core and stroke index (penumbra/penumbra_core) of brain ischemia. Good outcome was defined by mRS 0-2 at 3 months.Results: Among 242 events (115 male, mean NIHSS 18.1, SD 5.8, mean age 66, SD 15), 42% were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, and 3% with intraarterial thrombolysis. Collateral status was rated as poor in 53% of events and proximal M1 occlusion was present in 64%. Recanalization determined at 24 hours with CTA was complete in 26% events and partial/absent in 54%.CTP was available for 212 events. Mean penumbra was 88.6 cm3 (median 84.4, SD 53.8), mean core was 54.1 cm3 (median 46.2, SD 45.7) and stroke index was 64% (median 68%, SD 25%). Good outcome was observed in 87 events (36%) and was associated in multivariate logistic regression with thrombolysis (p_0.02, OR_2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.4), recanalization (p_0.001, OR_4.1, 95% CI 1.9-8.9), lower NIHSS (p_0.001, OR_0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.91), male gender (p_0.01, OR_2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.9), mRS prior to stroke (p_0.02, OR_0.5, 95% CI 0.28-0.9) and good collateral status (p_0.005, OR_3, 95% CI 1.4-6.4). Nor penumbra, nor core, nor stroke index were significant in the multivariate model, even if an association was present in the univariate model between good functional outcome and penumbra (p_0.004, OR_1.008, 95% CI 1.003-1.01), core (p_0.001, OR_0.98, 95% CI 0.976-0.99) and strokeindex (p_0.001, OR_16.7, 95% CI 4.6 59.9).Conclusion: MCA recanalization is the best predictor for good functional outcome, followed by collateral status. CTP data did not predict the functional outcome in our large group of M1 occlusion. Author Disclosures: C. Odier: None. P. Michel: Research Grant; Significant; Paion, Lundbeck. Speakers; Modest; Boehringer-Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Modest; Boehringer- Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Significant; Servier, Lundbeck.

The building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality: a regression-based decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations.

Performance of classic electrocardiographic criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy in an African population.

ECG criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) have been almost exclusively elaborated and calibrated in white populations. Because several interethnic differences in ECG characteristics have been found, the applicability of these criteria to African individuals remains to be demonstrated. We therefore investigated the performance of classic ECG criteria for LVH detection in an African population. Digitized 12-lead ECG tracings were obtained from 334 African individuals randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles (Indian Ocean). Left ventricular mass was calculated with M-mode echocardiography and indexed to body height. LVH was defined by taking the 95th percentile of body height-indexed LVM values in a reference subgroup. In the entire study sample, 16 men and 15 women (prevalence 9.3%) were finally declared to have LVH, of whom 9 were of the reference subgroup. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values for LVH were calculated for 9 classic ECG criteria, and receiver operating characteristic curves were computed. We also generated a new composite time-voltage criterion with stepwise multiple linear regression: weighted time-voltage criterion=(0.2366R(aVL)+0.0551R(V5)+0.0785S(V3)+ 0.2993T(V1))xQRS duration. The Sokolow-Lyon criterion reached the highest sensitivity (61%) and the R(aVL) voltage criterion reached the highest specificity (97%) when evaluated at their traditional partition value. However, at a fixed specificity of 95%, the sensitivity of these 10 criteria ranged from 16% to 32%. Best accuracy was obtained with the R(aVL) voltage criterion and the new composite time-voltage criterion (89% for both). Positive and negative predictive values varied considerably depending on the concomitant presence of 3 clinical risk factors for LVH (hypertension, age >/=50 years, overweight). Median positive and negative predictive values of the 10 ECG criteria were 15% and 95%, respectively, for subjects with none or 1 of these risk factors compared with 63% and 76% for subjects with all of them. In conclusion, the performance of classic ECG criteria for LVH detection was largely disparate and appeared to be lower in this population of East African origin than in white subjects. A newly generated composite time-voltage criterion might provide improved performance. The predictive value of ECG criteria for LVH was considerably enhanced with the integration of information on concomitant clinical risk factors for LVH.

Prospective analysis of KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations and EGFR copy number in patients (pts) with locally advanced rectal cancer: A translational substudy of a clinical trial (SAKK 41/07) evaluating the effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) with or without panitumumab

Background: Prognostic and predictive markers are of great importance for future study designs and essential for the interpretation of clinical trials incorporating an EGFR-inhibitor. The current study prospectively assessed and validated KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations in rectal cancer patients screened for the trial SAKK41/07 of concomitant preoperative radio-chemotherapy with or without panitumumab.Methods: Macrodissection was performed on pretreatment formalin fixed paraffin embedded biopsy tissue sections to arrive at a minimum of 50% of tumor cells. DNA was extracted with the Maxwell 16 FFPE Tissue LEV DNA purification kit. After PCR amplification, mutations were identified by pyrosequencing. We prospectively analysed pretreatment biopsy material from 149 rectal cancer pts biopsies for KRAS (exon 2 codon 12 [2-12] and 13 [2-13], exon 3 codon 59 [3-59]) and 61 [3-61], exon 4 codon 117 [4-117] and 146 [4-146]). Sixty-eight pts (KRASwt exon 2, 3 only) were further analysed for BRAF (exon 15 codon 600) and PIK3CA (exon 9 codon 542, 545 and 546, exon 20 codon 1043 [20-1043] and 1047 [20-1047]) mutations, and EGFR copy number by qPCR. For the calculation of the EGFR copy number, we used KRAS copy number as internal reference standard. The calculation was done on the basis of the two standard curves relative quantification method.Results: In 149 screened pts with rectal cancer, the prevalence of KRAS mutations was 36%. Among the 68 pts enrolled in SAKK 41/07 based on initially presumed KRASwt status (exon 2/codons 12+13), 18 pts (26%) had a total of 23 mutations in the RAS/PIK3CA-pathways upon validation analysis. Twelve pts had a KRAS mutation, 7 pts had a PIK3CA mutation, 3 pts had a NRAS mutation, 1 patient a BRAF mutation. Surprisingly, five of these pts had double- mutations, including 4 pts with KRAS plus PIK3CA mutations, and 1 pt with NRAS plus PIK3CA mutations. The median normalized EGFR copy number was 1. Neither mutations of KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA, nor EGFR copy number were statistically associated with the primary study endpoint pCR (pathological complete regression).Conclusions: The prevalence of KRAS mutations in rectal and in colon cancer appears to be similar. BRAF mutations are rare; PIK3CA mutations are more common (10%). EGFR copy number is not increased in rectal cancer. A considerable number or KRAS exon 2 wt tumors harbored KRAS exon 3+4 mutations. Further study is needed to determine if KRAS testing should include exons 2-4.

IL28B alleles associated with poor hepatitis C virus (HCV) clearance protect against inflammation and fibrosis in patients infected with non-1 HCV genotypes.

Genetic polymorphisms near IL28B are associated with spontaneous and treatment-induced clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV), two processes that require the appropriate activation of the host immune responses. Intrahepatic inflammation is believed to mirror such activation, but its relationship with IL28B polymorphisms has yet to be fully appreciated. We analyzed the association of IL28B polymorphisms with histological and follow-up features in 2335 chronically HCV-infected Caucasian patients. Assessable phenotypes before any antiviral treatment included necroinflammatory activity (n = 1,098), fibrosis (n = 1,527), fibrosis progression rate (n = 1,312), and hepatocellular carcinoma development (n = 1,915). Associations of alleles with the phenotypes were evaluated by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, accounting for all relevant covariates. The rare G allele at IL28B marker rs8099917-previously shown to be at risk of treatment failure-was associated with lower activity (P = 0.04), lower fibrosis (P = 0.02) with a trend toward lower fibrosis progression rate (P = 0.06). When stratified according to HCV genotype, most significant associations were observed in patients infected with non-1 genotypes (P = 0.003 for activity, P = 0.001 for fibrosis, and P = 0.02 for fibrosis progression rate), where the odds ratio of having necroinflammation or rapid fibrosis progression for patients with IL28B genotypes TG or GG versus TT were 0.48 (95% confidence intervals 0.30-0.78) and 0.56 (0.35-0.92), respectively. IL28B polymorphisms were not predictive of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSION: In chronic hepatitis C, IL28B variants associated with poor response to interferon therapy may predict slower fibrosis progression, especially in patients infected with non-1 HCV genotypes.

The Building Blocks of International Ecological Footprint inequality: A Regression-Base Decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression- Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations. Keywords: Ecological Footprint Inequality, Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition, Intragenerational equity, Sustainable development.

Intravaginal and subcutaneous immunization induced vaccine specific CD8 T cells and tumor regression in the bladder.

PURPOSE: Vaccines targeting tumor associated antigens are in development for bladder cancer. Most of these cancers are nonmuscle invasive at diagnosis and confined in the mucosa and submucosa. However, to our knowledge how vaccination may induce the regression of tumors at such mucosal sites has not been examined previously. We compared different immunization routes for the ability to induce vaccine specific antitumor CD8 T cells in the bladder and bladder tumor regression in mice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the absence of a murine bladder tumor model expressing a tumor antigen relevant for human use we established an orthotopic model expressing the HPV-16 tumor antigen E7 as a model. We used an adjuvant E7 polypeptide to induce CD8 T cell mediated tumor regression. RESULTS: Subcutaneous and intravaginal but not intranasal vaccination induced a high number of TetE7(+)CD8(+) T cells in the bladder as well as bladder tumor regression. The entry of vaccine specific T cells in the bladder was not the only key since persistent regression of established bladder tumors by intravaginal or subcutaneous immunization was associated with tumor infiltration of total CD4 and CD8 T cells. This resulted in an increase in TetE7(+)CD8(+) T cells and a decrease in T regulatory cells, leading to an increased number of effector interferon-γ secreting vaccine specific CD8 T cells in the regressing bladder tumor. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that immunization routes should be tailored to each mucosal tumor site. Subcutaneous or intravaginal vaccination may be of additional value to treat patients with bladder cancer.

Determinants of persistence in hypertensive patients treated with irbesartan: results of a postmarketing survey.

BACKGROUND: Persistence is a key factor for long-term blood pressure control, which is of high prognostic importance for patients at increased cardiovascular risk. Here we present the results of a post-marketing survey including 4769 hypertensive patients treated with irbesartan in 886 general practices in Switzerland. The goal of this survey was to evaluate the tolerance and the blood pressure lowering effect of irbesartan as well as the factors affecting persistence in a large unselected population. METHODS: Prospective observational survey conducted in general practices in all regions of Switzerland. Previously untreated and uncontrolled pre-treated patients were started with a daily dose of 150 mg irbesartan and followed up to 6 months. RESULTS: After an observation time slightly exceeding 4 months, the average reduction in systolic and diastolic blood pressure was 20 (95% confidence interval (CI) -19.6 to -20.7 mmHg) and 12 mmHg (95% CI -11.4 to -12.1 mmHg), respectively. At this time, 26% of patients had a blood pressure < 140/90 mmHg and 60% had a diastolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg. The drug was well tolerated with an incidence of adverse events (dizziness, headaches,...) of 8.0%. In this survey more than 80% of patients were still on irbesartan at 4 month. The most important factors predictive of persistence were the tolerability profile and the ability to achieve a blood pressure target < or = 140/90 mmHg before visit 2. Patients who switched from a fixed combination treatment tended to discontinue irbesartan more often whereas those who abandoned the previous treatment because of cough (a class side effect of ACE-Inhibitors) were more persistent with irbesartan. CONCLUSION: The results of this survey confirm that irbesartan is effective, well tolerated and well accepted by patients, as indicated by the good persistence. This post-marketing survey also emphasizes the importance of the tolerability profile and of achieving an early control of blood pressure as positive predictors of persistence.

Predictors of favorable results in pulmonary tuberculosis treatment (Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, 2001-2004)

Based on data available in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, predictive factors of favorable results were identified in the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis, diagnosed between 2001 and 2004 and living in Recife-PE, Brazil. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression methods were used. In multivariate analysis, the following factors remained: Age (years), 0 to 9 (OR=4.27; p=0.001) and 10 to 19 (OR=1.78; p=0.011), greater chance of cure than over 60; Education (years), 8 to 11 (OR=1.52; p=0.049), greater chance of cure than no education; Type of entry, new cases (OR=3.31; p<0.001) and relapse (OR=3.32; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than restart after abandonment; Time (months) 2, 5-|6 (OR=9.15; p<0.001); 6-|9 (OR=27.28; p<0.001) and More than 9 (OR=24.78; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than less than 5; Health Unit District, DS I (OR=1.60; p=0.018) and DS IV (OR=2.87; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than DS VI.

Blood glucose and prognosis in children with presumed severe malaria: is there a threshold for 'hypoglycaemia'?

OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.

Measured and predicted resting metabolic rate in obese and nonobese adolescents.

OBJECTIVES: The validity of equations for the calculation of resting metabolic rate (RMR) were studied and new predictive equations were developed. STUDY DESIGN: The RMR was measured in a sample of 371 10- to 16-year-old prepubertal and postpubertal children. The study group included 193 male (116 nonobese and 77 obese) and 178 female (119 nonobese and 59 obese) subjects; for each group the RMRs predicted from five equations recommended for this age group were compared. The RMR was assessed by indirect calorimetry with a ventilated hood system for 45 minutes after an overnight fast. Body composition was estimated from skin-fold measurements. RESULTS: The mean +/- SD RMR was found to be 5600 +/- 972 kJ/24 hr and 7223 +/- 1220 kJ/24 hr in nonobese and obese boys, and 5112 +/- 632 kJ/24 hr and 6665 +/- 1106 kJ/24 hr in nonobese and obese girls, respectively. All five equations applicable to 10- to 16-year-old children overestimated RMR by 7.5% to 18.1% (p < 0.001 for each equation). Stepwise regression analysis, with independent variables such as age, weight, height, and gender, allowed development of new predictive equations for the calculation of RMR in 10- to 16-year-old boys (RMR = 50.9 Weight (kg) + 25.3 Height (cm) -50.3 Age (yr) + 26.9; R2 = 0.884, p < 0.0001) and girls (RMR = 51.2 Weight (kg) + 24.5 Height (cm) - 207.5 Age (yr) + 1629.8; R2 = 0.824, p < 0.0001). These predictive equations were tested in a second, independent cohort of children (80 male and 61 female subject) and were found to give a reliable estimate of RMR in 10- to 16-year-old obese and nonobese adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The currently used predictive equations overestimate RMR in 10- to 16-year-old children. The use of the newly developed equations is recommended.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

Valeur prédictive de la surexpression/ amplification de Her2/neu pour un traitement ciblé du cancer du sein [Predictive value of Her2/neu expression/amplification for the targeted treatment of breast cancer]

Her2/neu is a tyrosine kinase receptor which stimulates cell growth. The receptor is overexpressed in about 20% of breast cancers. Her2/neu expression is an indicator of poor prognosis but also the target of the treatment of breast cancer using humanised anti-Her2/ neu antibodies. Only cancers overexpressing the protein will respond to this therapy, but which has significant (cardiac) side effects and is expensive. It is therefore important to test for the overexpression of the protein on breast cancer cells. This paper discusses how this can be done and ongoing research into new therapeutic options targeting the involved signaling pathways.