Molecular Breeding for Complex Adaptive Traits: How Integrating Crop Ecophysiology and Modelling Can Enhance Efficiency

Progress in crop improvement is limited by the ability to identify favourable combinations of genotypes (G) and management practices (M) in relevant target environments (E) given the resources available to search among the myriad of possible combinations. To underpin yield advance we require prediction of phenotype based on genotype. In plant breeding, traditional phenotypic selection methods have involved measuring phenotypic performance of large segregating populations in multi-environment trials and applying rigorous statistical procedures based on quantitative genetic theory to identify superior individuals. Recent developments in the ability to inexpensively and densely map/sequence genomes have facilitated a shift from the level of the individual (genotype) to the level of the genomic region. Molecular breeding strategies using genome wide prediction and genomic selection approaches have developed rapidly. However, their applicability to complex traits remains constrained by gene-gene and gene-environment interactions, which restrict the predictive power of associations of genomic regions with phenotypic responses. Here it is argued that crop ecophysiology and functional whole plant modelling can provide an effective link between molecular and organism scales and enhance molecular breeding by adding value to genetic prediction approaches. A physiological framework that facilitates dissection and modelling of complex traits can inform phenotyping methods for marker/gene detection and underpin prediction of likely phenotypic consequences of trait and genetic variation in target environments. This approach holds considerable promise for more effectively linking genotype to phenotype for complex adaptive traits. Specific examples focused on drought adaptation are presented to highlight the concepts.

Placental abruption : Studies on incidence, risk factors and potential predictive biomarkers

Placental abruption, one of the most significant causes of perinatal mortality and maternal morbidity, occurs in 0.5-1% of pregnancies. Its etiology is unknown, but defective trophoblastic invasion of the spiral arteries and consequent poor vascularization may play a role. The aim of this study was to define the prepregnancy risk factors of placental abruption, to define the risk factors during the index pregnancy, and to describe the clinical presentation of placental abruption. We also wanted to find a biochemical marker for predicting placental abruption early in pregnancy. Among women delivering at the University Hospital of Helsinki in 1997-2001 (n=46,742), 198 women with placental abruption and 396 control women were identified. The overall incidence of placental abruption was 0.42%. The prepregnancy risk factors were smoking (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.1, 2.7), uterine malformation (OR 8.1; 1.7, 40), previous cesarean section (OR 1.7; 1.1, 2.8), and history of placental abruption (OR 4.5; 1.1, 18). The risk factors during the index pregnancy were maternal (adjusted OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1, 2.9) and paternal smoking (2.2; 1.3, 3.6), use of alcohol (2.2; 1.1, 4.4), placenta previa (5.7; 1.4, 23.1), preeclampsia (2.7; 1.3, 5.6) and chorioamnionitis (3.3; 1.0, 10.0). Vaginal bleeding (70%), abdominal pain (51%), bloody amniotic fluid (50%) and fetal heart rate abnormalities (69%) were the most common clinical manifestations of placental abruption. Retroplacental blood clot was seen by ultrasound in 15% of the cases. Neither bleeding nor pain was present in 19% of the cases. Overall, 59% went into preterm labor (OR 12.9; 95% CI 8.3, 19.8), and 91% were delivered by cesarean section (34.7; 20.0, 60.1). Of the newborns, 25% were growth restricted. The perinatal mortality rate was 9.2% (OR 10.1; 95% CI 3.4, 30.1). We then tested selected biochemical markers for prediction of placental abruption. The median of the maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) multiples of median (MoM) (1.21) was significantly higher in the abruption group (n=57) than in the control group (n=108) (1.07) (p=0.004) at 15-16 gestational weeks. In multivariate analysis, elevated MSAFP remained as an independent risk factor for placental abruption, adjusting for parity ≥ 3, smoking, previous placental abruption, preeclampsia, bleeding in II or III trimester, and placenta previa. MSAFP ≥ 1.5 MoM had a sensitivity of 29% and a false positive rate of 10%. The levels of the maternal serum free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin MoM did not differ between the cases and the controls. None of the angiogenic factors (soluble endoglin, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1, or placental growth factor) showed any difference between the cases (n=42) and the controls (n=50) in the second trimester. The levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) showed no difference between the cases (n=181) and the controls (n=261) (median 2.35 mg/l [interquartile range {IQR} 1.09-5.93] versus 2.28 mg/l [IQR 0.92-5.01], not significant) when tested in the first trimester (mean 10.4 gestational weeks). Chlamydia pneumoniae specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin A (IgA) as well as C. trachomatis specific IgG, IgA and chlamydial heat-shock protein 60 antibody rates were similar between the groups. In conclusion, although univariate analysis identified many prepregnancy risk factors for placental abruption, only smoking, uterine malformation, previous cesarean section and history of placental abruption remained significant by multivariate analysis. During the index pregnancy maternal alcohol consumption and smoking and smoking by the partner turned out to be the major independent risk factors for placental abruption. Smoking by both partners multiplied the risk. The liberal use of ultrasound examination contributed little to the management of women with placental abruption. Although second-trimester MSAFP levels were higher in women with subsequent placental abruption, clinical usefulness of this test is limited due to low sensitivity and high false positive rate. Similarly, angiogenic factors in early second trimester, or CRP levels, or chlamydial antibodies in the first trimester failed to predict placental abruption.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

Microfinance, Efficiency and Agricultural Production in Bangladesh

The objectives of this study were to make a detailed and systematic empirical analysis of microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers in Bangladesh and also examine how efficiency measures are influenced by the access to agricultural microfinance. In the empirical analysis, this study used both parametric and non-parametric frontier approaches to investigate differences in efficiency estimates between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers. This thesis, based on five articles, applied data obtained from a survey of 360 farm households from north-central and north-western regions in Bangladesh. The methods used in this investigation involve stochastic frontier (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) in addition to sample selectivity and limited dependent variable models. In article I, technical efficiency (TE) estimation and identification of its determinants were performed by applying an extended Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. The results show that farm households had a mean TE of 83% with lower TE scores for the non-borrowers of agricultural microfinance. Addressing institutional policies regarding the consolidation of individual plots into farm units, ensuring access to microfinance, extension education for the farmers with longer farming experience are suggested to improve the TE of the farmers. In article II, the objective was to assess the effects of access to microfinance on household production and cost efficiency (CE) and to determine the efficiency differences between the microfinance participating and non-participating farms. In addition, a non-discretionary DEA model was applied to capture directly the influence of microfinance on farm households production and CE. The results suggested that under both pooled DEA models and non-discretionary DEA models, farmers with access to microfinance were significantly more efficient than their non-borrowing counterparts. Results also revealed that land fragmentation, family size, household wealth, on farm-training and off farm income share are the main determinants of inefficiency after effectively correcting for sample selection bias. In article III, the TE of traditional variety (TV) and high-yielding-variety (HYV) rice producers were estimated in addition to investigating the determinants of adoption rate of HYV rice. Furthermore, the role of TE as a potential determinant to explain the differences of adoption rate of HYV rice among the farmers was assessed. The results indicated that in spite of its much higher yield potential, HYV rice production was associated with lower TE and had a greater variability in yield. It was also found that TE had a significant positive influence on the adoption rates of HYV rice. In article IV, we estimated profit efficiency (PE) and profit-loss between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers by a sample selection framework, which provided a general framework for testing and taking into account the sample selection in the stochastic (profit) frontier function analysis. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, the mean PE of the microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers were estimated at 68% and 52% respectively. This suggested that a considerable share of profits were lost due to profit inefficiencies in rice production. The results also demonstrated that access to microfinance contributes significantly to increasing PE and reducing profit-loss per hectare land. In article V, the effects of credit constraints on TE, allocative efficiency (AE) and CE were assessed while adequately controlling for sample selection bias. The confidence intervals were determined by the bootstrap method for both samples. The results indicated that differences in average efficiency scores of credit constrained and unconstrained farms were not statistically significant although the average efficiencies tended to be higher in the group of unconstrained farms. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, household experience, number of dependents, off-farm income, farm size, access to on farm training and yearly savings were found to be the main determinants of inefficiencies. In general, the results of the study revealed the existence substantial technical, allocative, economic inefficiencies and also considerable profit inefficiencies. The results of the study suggested the need to streamline agricultural microfinance by the microfinance institutions (MFIs), donor agencies and government at all tiers. Moreover, formulating policies that ensure greater access to agricultural microfinance to the smallholder farmers on a sustainable basis in the study areas to enhance productivity and efficiency has been recommended. Key Words: Technical, allocative, economic efficiency, DEA, Non-discretionary DEA, selection bias, bootstrapping, microfinance, Bangladesh.

Generalized model predictive static programming and its application to 3D impact angle constrained guidance of air-to-surface missiles

A new `generalized model predictive static programming (G-MPSP)' technique is presented in this paper in the continuous time framework for rapidly solving a class of finite-horizon nonlinear optimal control problems with hard terminal constraints. A key feature of the technique is backward propagation of a small-dimensional weight matrix dynamics, using which the control history gets updated. This feature, as well as the fact that it leads to a static optimization problem, are the reasons for its high computational efficiency. It has been shown that under Euler integration, it is equivalent to the existing model predictive static programming technique, which operates on a discrete-time approximation of the problem. Performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by solving a challenging three-dimensional impact angle constrained missile guidance problem. The problem demands that the missile must meet constraints on both azimuth and elevation angles in addition to achieving near zero miss distance, while minimizing the lateral acceleration demand throughout its flight path. Both stationary and maneuvering ground targets are considered in the simulation studies. Effectiveness of the proposed guidance has been verified by considering first order autopilot lag as well as various target maneuvers.

Generalized Model Predictive Static Programming and Angle-Constrained Guidance of Air-to-Ground Missiles

A new generalized model predictive static programming technique is presented for rapidly solving a class of finite-horizon nonlinear optimal control problems with hard terminal constraints. Two key features for its high computational efficiency include one-time backward integration of a small-dimensional weighting matrix dynamics, followed bya static optimization formulation that requires only a static Lagrange multiplier to update the control history. It turns out that under Euler integration and rectangular approximation of finite integrals it is equivalent to the existing model predictive static programming technique. In addition to the benchmark double integrator problem, usefulness of the proposed technique is demonstrated by solving a three-dimensional angle-constrained guidance problem for an air-to-ground missile, which demands that the missile must meet constraints on both azimuth and elevation angles at the impact point in addition to achieving near-zero miss distance, while minimizing the lateral acceleration demand throughout its flight path. Simulation studies include maneuvering ground targets along with a first-order autopilot lag. Comparison studies with classical augmented proportional navigation guidance and modern general explicit guidance lead to the conclusion that the proposed guidance is superior to both and has a larger capture region as well.

Optimal Guidance for Accurate Lunar Soft Landing with Minimum Fuel Consumption using Model Predictive Static Programming

In this paper the soft lunar landing with minimum fuel expenditure is formulated as a nonlinear optimal guidance problem. The realization of pinpoint soft landing with terminal velocity and position constraints is achieved using Model Predictive Static Programming (MPSP). The high accuracy of the terminal conditions is ensured as the formulation of the MPSP inherently poses final conditions as a set of hard constraints. The computational efficiency and fast convergence make the MPSP preferable for fixed final time onboard optimal guidance algorithm. It has also been observed that the minimum fuel requirement strongly depends on the choice of the final time (a critical point that is not given due importance in many literature). Hence, to optimally select the final time, a neural network is used to learn the mapping between various initial conditions in the domain of interest and the corresponding optimal flight time. To generate the training data set, the optimal final time is computed offline using a gradient based optimization technique. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated with rigorous simulation results.

Energy efficiency with natural ventilation: a case study

Application of laboratory analogue modelling of air flow in a naturally ventilated shopping mall is reviewed in this paper. A detailed study of the ventilation was undertaken to establish the principles and to explore how natural ventilation might interact with a localised mechanical ventilation system designed to enhance the cooling of a high density food court area. The case study is used to show how the combination of laboratory modelling and simplified mathematical modelling enables one to rapidly identify the various flow regimes which can occur, to quantify the resultant flows and mean temperatures and to thereby develop appropriate ventilation strategies for the different external conditions which occur through the year.

Feed conversion, protein efficiency, digestibility and growth performance of Oreochromis niloticus fed Delonix regia seed meal

Oreochromis niloticus fingerlings (mean weight 5.27~c0.29g) were fed raw and boiled Delonix regia seed meals following standard procedures. The weight gain, specific growth rate (SGR), feed conversion ratio (FCR), protein efficiency ratio (PER), net protein utilization (NPU) were determined as growth indices. Diet formulated with seed boiled for 80 minutes showed significantly (P<0.05) high values for the growth indices. Carcass nutrients composition were significantly (P<0.05) higher than in the control (raw) diet. Delonix regia seed meal when boiled has high potential of being utilized efficiently by O.niloticus. The implications of the respective index in fish metabolism are discussed

Energy efficiency in trawling operations

Diurnal variation in trawl catches and its influence on energy efficiency of trawler operations are discussed in this paper, based on data on landings of a Japanese factory trawler which operated in the Indian waters during 1992-93. The factory vessel equipped for stern trawling had a length overall of 110 m, GT of 5460 and installed engine power of 5700 hp. Operations were conducted off west coast of India between 31 and 278 m depth contours, using a 80.4 m high opening bottom trawl with an adjusted vertical opening of 7.60.9 m. The catch data was grouped according to the median towing hour, by the time of the day. CPUE obtained was 3713.4 kg.h-1 for day time operations and 1536.6 kg.h-1 for night-time operations. Mean daily catches were 31367 kg.day-1 (SE: 2743) for day time operations and 9430 kg.day-1 (SE: 966) for night-time operations. Fuel consumption were 0.399 and 0.982 kg fuel.kg fish-1, respectively for day and night-time operations. Total catch and catch components such as threadfin bream, bulls eye, hairtails, trevelly, lizard fish showed significant improvement during day-time operations while swarming crabs showed a significant improvement in the night-time operations. The difference in catch rates between day and night could be attributed to diurnal variation in the spatial distribution and schooling behaviour of the catch categories, their differential behaviour in the vicinity of trawl systems under varying light levels of day and night and consequent effect on catching efficiency and size selectivity at different stages in the capture process. The results obtained in addition to its importance in the operational planning of trawling in order to realise objectives of maximising catch per unit effort and minimising fuel consumption per unit volume of fish caught, has added significance in the use of bottom trawl surveys in stock abundance estimates.

Efficiency of bycatch reduction devices in small otter trawls used in the Florida shrimp fishery

Two bycatch reduction devices (BRDs)—the extended mesh funnel (EMF) and the Florida fisheye (FFE)—were evaluated in otter trawls with net mouth circumferences of 14 m, 17 m, and 20 m and total net areas of 45 m2. Each test net was towed 20 times in parallel with a control net that had the same dimensions and configuration but no BRD. Both BRDs were tested at night during fall 1996 and winter 1997 in Tampa Bay, Florida. Usually, the bycatch was composed principally of finfish (44 species were captured); horseshoe crabs and blue crabs seasonally predominated in some trawls. Ten finfish species composed 92% of the total finfish catch; commercially or recreationally valuable species accounted for 7% of the catch. Mean finfish size in the BRD-equipped nets was usually slightly smaller than that in the control nets. Compared with the corresponding control nets, both biomass and number of finfish were almost always less in the BRD-equipped nets but neither shrimp number nor biomass were significantly reduced. The differences in proportions of both shrimp and finfish catch between the BRD-equipped and control nets varied between seasons and among net sizes, and differences in finfish catch were specific for each BRD type and season. In winter, shrimp catch was highest and size range of shrimp was greater than in fall. Season-specific differences in shrimp catch among the BRD types occurred only in the 14-m, EMF nets. Finfish bycatch species composition was also highly seasonal; each species was captured mainly during only one season. However, regardless of the finfish composition, the shrimp catch was relatively constant. In part as a result of this study, the State of Florida now requires the use of BRDs in state waters.

Gaussian Process training with input noise

In standard Gaussian Process regression input locations are assumed to be noise free. We present a simple yet effective GP model for training on input points corrupted by i.i.d. Gaussian noise. To make computations tractable we use a local linear expansion about each input point. This allows the input noise to be recast as output noise proportional to the squared gradient of the GP posterior mean. The input noise variances are inferred from the data as extra hyperparameters. They are trained alongside other hyperparameters by the usual method of maximisation of the marginal likelihood. Training uses an iterative scheme, which alternates between optimising the hyperparameters and calculating the posterior gradient. Analytic predictive moments can then be found for Gaussian distributed test points. We compare our model to others over a range of different regression problems and show that it improves over current methods.

Blade loading and its application in the mean-line design of low pressure turbines

In order to minimize the number of iterations to a turbine design, reasonable choices of the key parameters must be made at the earliest possible opportunity. The choice of blade loading is of particular concern in the low pressure (LP) turbine of civil aero engines, where the use of high-lift blades is widespread. This paper presents an analytical mean-line design study for a repeating-stage, axial-flow Low Pressure (LP) turbine. The problem of how to measure blade loading is first addressed. The analysis demonstrates that the Zweifel coefficient [1] is not a reasonable gauge of blade loading because it inherently depends on the flow angles. A more appropriate coefficient based on blade circulation is proposed. Without a large set of turbine test data it is not possible to directly evaluate the accuracy of a particular loss correlation. The analysis therefore focuses on the efficiency trends with respect to flow coefficient, stage loading, lift coefficient and Reynolds number. Of the various loss correlations examined, those based on Ainley and Mathieson ([2], [3], [4]) do not produce realistic trends. The profile loss model of Coull and Hodson [5] and the secondary loss models of Craig and Cox [6] and Traupel [7] gave the most reasonable results. The analysis suggests that designs with the highest flow turning are the least sensitive to increases in blade loading. The increase in Reynolds number lapse with loading is also captured, achieving reasonable agreement with experiments. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Blade Loading and Its Application in the Mean-Line Design of Low Pressure Turbines

In order to minimize the number of iterations to a turbine design, reasonable choices of the key parameters must be made at the preliminary design stage. The choice of blade loading is of particular concern in the low pressure (LP) turbine of civil aero engines, where the use of high-lift blades is widespread. This paper considers how blade loading should be measured, compares the performance of various loss correlations, and explores the impact of blade lift on performance and lapse rates. To these ends, an analytical design study is presented for a repeating-stage, axial-flow LP turbine. It is demonstrated that the long-established Zweifel lift coefficient (Zweifel, 1945, "The Spacing of Turbomachine Blading, Especially with Large Angular Deflection" Brown Boveri Rev., 32(1), pp. 436-444) is flawed because it does not account for the blade camber. As a result the Zweifel coefficient is only meaningful for a fixed set of flow angles and cannot be used as an absolute measure of blade loading. A lift coefficient based on circulation is instead proposed that accounts for the blade curvature and is independent of the flow angles. Various existing profile and secondary loss correlations are examined for their suitability to preliminary design. A largely qualitative comparison demonstrates that the loss correlations based on Ainley and Mathieson (Ainley and Mathieson, 1957, "A Method of Performance Estimation for Axial-Flow Turbines," ARC Reports and Memoranda No. 2974; Dunham and Came, 1970, "Improvements to the Ainley-Mathieson Method of Turbine Performance Prediction," Trans. ASME: J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power, July, pp. 252-256; Kacker and Okapuu, 1982, "A Mean Line Performance Method for Axial Flow Turbine Efficiency," J. Eng. Power, 104, pp. 111-119). are not realistic, while the profile loss model of Coull and Hodson (Coull and Hodson, 2011, "Predicting the Profile Loss of High-Lift Low Pressure Turbines," J. Turbomach., 134(2), pp. 021002) and the secondary loss model of (Traupel, W, 1977, Thermische Turbomaschinen, Springer-Verlag, Berlin) are arguably the most reasonable. A quantitative comparison with multistage rig data indicates that, together, these methods over-predict lapse rates by around 30%, highlighting the need for improved loss models and a better understanding of the multistage environment. By examining the influence of blade lift across the Smith efficiency chart, the analysis demonstrates that designs with higher flow turning will tend to be less sensitive to increases in blade loading. © 2013 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Toxicity and protective efficiency of cryoprotectants to flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) embryos

With the purpose of finding an ideal cryoprotectant or combination of cryoprotectants in a suitable concentration for flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) embryo cryopreservation, we tested the toxicities, at culture temperature (16 degrees C), of five most commonly used cryoprotectants-dimethyl sulfoxide (Me2SO), glycerol, methanol (MeOH), 1,2-propylene glycol (PG) and ethylene glycol (EG). In addition, cryoprotective efficiency to flounder embryos of individual and combined cryoprotectants were tested at -15 degrees C for 60 min. Five different concentrations of each of the five cryoprotectants and 20 different combinations of these cryoprotectants were tested for their protective efficiency. The results showed that the toxicity to flounder embryos of the five cryoprotectants are in the following sequence: PG < MeOH < Me2SO < glycerol < EG (P < 0.05); whereas the protective efficiency of each cryoprotectant, at -15 degrees C for a period of 60 min, are in the following sequence: PG > Me2SO approximate to MeOH approximate to glycerol > EG (greater symbols mean P < 0.05, and approximate symbols mean P > 0.05). Methanol combined with any one of the other cryoprotectants gave the best protection, while ethylene glycol combined with any one of the other cryoprotectants gave the poorest protection at -15 degrees C. Toxicity effect was concentration dependent with the lowest concentration being the least toxic for all five cryoprotectants at 16 degrees C. For PG, MeOH and glycerol, 20% solutions gave the best protection at -15 degrees C; whereas a 15% solution of Me2SO, and a 10% solution of EG, gave the best protection at -15 degrees C. (c) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.