Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.

Mechanisms of drought-induced population decline in an endangered wallaby

The bridled nailtail wallaby is restricted to one locality in central Queensland, Australia. The population declined severely during a major drought between 1991 and 1995. We investigated age-specific covariates of survival and proximate causes of mortality from 1994 to 1997, using mark-recapture and radio-tagging techniques at two study sites. Using a matrix population model, we also modelled the effect of drought on age-specific survival and the intrinsic rate of population increase,;,. The only significant covariate of survival for adults was a measure of health unrelated to drought. Rainfall, food, predator activity, year, sex and habitat were not associated with variation in adult survival. Juvenile survival was negatively affected by drought, and predation was the proximate cause of most juvenile deaths. The matrix projection model showed that the observed juvenile survivorship during the drought was low enough to have produced a population decline, although fecundity and survival of other age classes was high throughout the study. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inferring population history from microsatellite and enzyme data in serially introduced cane toads, Bufo marinus

Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.

The damped and coherently-driven Jaynes-Cummings model

We investigate the influence of a single-mode cavity on the Autler-Townes doublet that arises when a three-level atom is strongly driven by a laser field tuned to one of the atomic transitions and probed by a tunable, weak field coupled to the other transition. We assume that the cavity mode is coupled to the driven transition and the cavity and laser frequencies are equal to the atomic transition frequency. We find that the Autler-Townes spectrum can have one, two or three peaks depending on the relative magnitudes of the Rabi frequencies of the cavity and driving fields. We show that, in order to understand the three-peaked spectrum, it is necessary to go beyond the secular approximation, leading to interesting quantum interference effects. We find that the positions and relative intensities of the three spectral components are affected strongly by the atom-cavity coupling strength g and the cavity damping K. For an increasing g and/or decreasing K the triplet evolves into a single peak. This results in 'undressing' of the system such that the atom collapses into its ground state. We interpret the spectral features in terms of the semiclassical dressed-atom model, and also provide complementary views of the cavity effects in terms of quantum Langevin equations and the fully quantized, 'double -dressing' model.

Population health, environment and economic development

This paper studies the role of income distribution and technology transfer in the process of economic development. A novel aspect of the model is that the composition of human capital as well as the level affect economic growth. Utilizing an overlapping-generations model in which income distribution changes endogenously, we present an economic explanation for why some countries could not start modern economic growth; why some countries took off but have apparently stopped growing after some time; and why some countries have successfully developed and continue to grow

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Young children's performance on the balance scale: The influence of relational complexity

Three experiments investigated the effect of complexity on children's understanding of a beam balance. In nonconflict problems, weights or distances varied, while the other was held constant. In conflict items, both weight and distance varied, and items were of three kinds: weight dominant, distance dominant, or balance (in which neither was dominant). In Experiment 1, 2-year-old children succeeded on nonconflict-weight and nonconflict-distance problems. This result was replicated in Experiment 2, but performance on conflict items did not exceed chance. In Experiment 3, 3- and 4-year-olds succeeded on all except conflict balance problems, while 5- and 6-year-olds succeeded on all problem types. The results were interpreted in terms of relational complexity theory. Children aged 2 to 4 years succeeded on problems that entailed binary relations, but 5- and 6-year-olds also succeeded on problems that entailed ternary relations. Ternary relations tasks from other domains-transitivity and class inclusion-accounted for 93% of the age-related variance in balance scale scores. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Modelling activated sludge flocculation using population balances

Activated sludge flocculation was modelled using population balances. The model followed the dynamics of activated sludge flocculation providing a good approximation of the change in mean floe size with time. Increasing the average velocity gradient decreased the final floe size. The breakage rate coefficient and collision efficiency also varied with the average velocity gradient. A power law relationship was found for the increase in breakage rate coefficient with increasing average velocity gradient. Further investigation will be conducted to determine the relationship between the collision efficiency and particle size to provide a better approximation of dynamic changes in the floe size distribution during flocculation. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

The E(NK) model: extending the NK model to incorporate gene-by-environment interactions and epistasis for diploid genomes

The haploid NK model developed by Kauffman can be extended to diploid genomes and to incorporate gene-by-environment interaction effects in combination with epistasis. To provide the flexibility to include a wide range of forms of gene-by-environment interactions, a target population of environment types (TPE) is defined. The TPE consists of a set of E different environment types, each with their own frequency of occurrence. Each environment type conditions a different NK gene network structure or series of gene effects for a given network structure, providing the framework for defining gene-by-environment interactions. Thus, different NK models can be partially or completely nested within the E environment types of a TPE, giving rise to the E(NK) model for a biological system. With this model it is possible to examine how populations of genotypes evolve in context with properties of the environment that influence the contributions of genes to the fitness values of genotypes. We are using the E(NK) model to investigate how both epistasis and gene-by-environment interactions influence the genetic improvement of quantitative traits by plant breeding strategies applied to agricultural systems. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of a triclosan-containing dentifrice on the progression of periodontal disease in an adult population

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to determine the effect of unsupervised, long-term use of a 0.3% triclosan/2% copolymer dentifrice on the progression of periodontal disease in a general adult population. Methods: Five hundred and four volunteers were enrolled in a double-blind, controlled clinical trial. Participants were matched for disease status, plaque index, age and gender. At the baseline examination, probing pocket depths and relative attachment levels were recorded and participants were assigned to either the test or control group. Re-examinations took place after 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months. Subgingival plaque samples were collected at each examination and assayed for Porphyromonas gingivalis , Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Prevotella intermedia . A generalised linear model was used to analyse the data, with a number of covariates thought to influence the responses included as the possible confounding effects. Results: The triclosan/copolymer dentifrice had a significant effect in subjects with interproximal probing depths greater than or equal to3.5 mm, where it significantly reduced the number of sites with probing depths greater than or equal to3.5 mm at the following examination, when compared with the control group (p

A mechanistic model for carbon dioxide corrosion of mild steel in the presence of protective iron carbonate films - Part 3: Film growth model

A model of iron carbonate (FeCO3) film growth is proposed, which is an extension of the recent mechanistic model of carbon dioxide (CO2) corrosion by Nesic, et al. In the present model, the film growth occurs by precipitation of iron carbonate once saturation is exceeded. The kinetics of precipitation is dependent on temperature and local species concentrations that are calculated by solving the coupled species transport equations. Precipitation tends to build up a layer of FeCO3 on the surface of the steel and reduce the corrosion rate. On the other hand, the corrosion process induces voids under the precipitated film, thus increasing the porosity and leading to a higher corrosion rate. Depending on the environmental parameters such as temperature, pH, CO2 partial pressure, velocity, etc., the balance of the two processes can lead to a variety of outcomes. Very protective films and low corrosion rates are predicted at high pH, temperature, CO2 partial pressure, and Fe2+ ion concentration due to formation of dense protective films as expected. The model has been successfully calibrated against limited experimental data. Parametric testing of the model has been done to gain insight into the effect of various environmental parameters on iron carbonate film formation. The trends shown in the predictions agreed well with the general understanding of the CO2 corrosion process in the presence of iron carbonate films. The present model confirms that the concept of scaling tendency is a good tool for predicting the likelihood of protective iron carbonate film formation.