Miscellaneous papers, on political and commercial subjects.

Originally published in 1802.

Hints to parents : in two parts.

From the 3rd London ed.

Hints to parents ... no. I[-VI]

no. I. On the cultivation of children, in the spirit of Pestalozzi's method. 5th ed. 1827.--no. II. Exercises for exciting the attention and strengthening the thinking powers of children ... 5th ed. 1829.--no. III. First exercises in number; or, The elements of arithmetic visibly represented ... 4th ed. 1829.--no. IV. First exercises in forms. Intuition and denomination of the most simple relations of forms, their position and magnitude ... 2d ed. 1827.--no. V. First exercises in language ... 2d ed. 1827.--no. VI. Religious conversations, calculated for young children during the first period of education ... 1827.

The transform likelihood ratio method for rare event simulation with heavy tails

We present a novel method, called the transform likelihood ratio (TLR) method, for estimation of rare event probabilities with heavy-tailed distributions. Via a simple transformation ( change of variables) technique the TLR method reduces the original rare event probability estimation with heavy tail distributions to an equivalent one with light tail distributions. Once this transformation has been established we estimate the rare event probability via importance sampling, using the classical exponential change of measure or the standard likelihood ratio change of measure. In the latter case the importance sampling distribution is chosen from the same parametric family as the transformed distribution. We estimate the optimal parameter vector of the importance sampling distribution using the cross-entropy method. We prove the polynomial complexity of the TLR method for certain heavy-tailed models and demonstrate numerically its high efficiency for various heavy-tailed models previously thought to be intractable. We also show that the TLR method can be viewed as a universal tool in the sense that not only it provides a unified view for heavy-tailed simulation but also can be efficiently used in simulation with light-tailed distributions. We present extensive simulation results which support the efficiency of the TLR method.

AS BRIGAS DIVINAS DE INANA: Reconstrução feminista de repressão e resistência em torno de uma deusa suméria

As análises desta tese, baseadas numa hermenêutica feminista libertadora, têm como centro a figura de Inana, a deusa mais importante e mais popular da Suméria, que predominou, sob o nome de I tar, também nos panteões mesopotâmicos posteriores. O Capítulo 1 oferece uma reconstrução da vida na Suméria, desde os tempos neolíticos até os inícios do Período Babilônico Antigo (aproximadamente de 5000 a 2000 aEC), com especial atenção para dados sobre mulheres e para aspectos de gênero. O Capítulo 2 apresenta documentos pré-sargônicos, iconográficos e filológicos, relacionados com a figura e o culto de Inana, oferecendo as primeiras reflexões sobre aspectos particulares e conflitos que mostram sua posição especial na religião na Suméria e na sua crescente patriarcalização. No Capítulo 3, esses aspectos e conflitos são discutidos enfocando tradições de Inana como Senhora da Eana, dos Me e de Kur, com especial atenção para os mitos Inana e a Eana , Inana e os Me e Inana e o Inframundo (ETCSL 1.3.5; 1.3.1; 1.4.1). É mostrado que o mito Inana e a Eana é o resultado de manipulações para legitimar o culto de An nesse templo de Inana, que Inana e os Me reflete atitudes de resistência contra tentativas de seu desapoderamento, e que Inana e o Inframundo é composto de mitos diferentes que evidenciam vários conflitos relacionados com funções e poderes de Inana. Desse modo mostra-se que os conflitos em torno de Inana refletem repressões e resistências humanas no âmbito de uma sociedade quiriarcal e da crescente patriarcalização de sua religião. Embora a atuação política e religiosa de mulheres em sociedades de hoje não necessite de legitimações a partir de exemplos provenientes de religiões antigas, a reconstrução e memória feministas de tais exemplos podem servir de estímulo para tal atuação quando busca construir uma outra imagem do divino e quando luta por um mundo de igualdade em direitos e dignidade para todas as pessoas.(AU)

DETERMINAÇÃO DAS FORMAS DO ARCO DENTÁRIO INFERIOR NA OCLUSÃO NORMAL NATURAL

Com a finalidade de determinar as formas do arco dentário inferior de maior incidência na oclusão normal natural, utilizou-se um método matemático associado ao emprego de uma função polinomial, o qual foi aplicado a 63 modelos de arcadas inferiores selecionados a partir de 6118 adolescentes. Todos os indivíduos eram portadores de dentição permanente, incluindo os segundos molares, e oclusão normal natural. Em cada dente foi fixada uma esfera de vidro, que teve a função de simular o acessório do aparelho ortodôntico, sendo utilizada na medição das distâncias entre o centro da imagem dessas esferas aos eixos x e y. Após a digitalização dos modelos de gesso, as imagens foram plotadas em um programa de computador, a fim de se obterem a função polinomial de sexto grau e o gráfico dessa função para os 126 segmentos de curva, originados das secções das imagens em lado direito e esquerdo. A seguir organizaram-se esses segmentos, de acordo com as características da curvatura anterior dos arcos dentários, em oito grupos diferentes de formas, que receberam as denominações de Forma A, Forma B, Forma C, Forma D, Forma E, Forma F, Forma G, Forma H. Cada grupo foi, então, dividido em três subgrupos, conforme os tamanhos pequeno, médio e grande. Os resultados indicaram 23 formas representativas do arco dentário inferior e uma forma média para a oclusão normal natural.

The missing ingredient:inter-municipal cooperation and central-local relations in the UK

The thrust of the argument presented in this chapter is that inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) in the United Kingdom reflects local government's constitutional position and its exposure to the exigencies of Westminster (elected central government) and Whitehall (centre of the professional civil service that services central government). For the most part councils are without general powers of competence and are restricted in what they can do by Parliament. This suggests that the capacity for locally driven IMC is restricted and operates principally within a framework constructed by central government's policy objectives and legislation and the political expediencies of the governing political party. In practice, however, recent examples of IMC demonstrate that the practices are more complex than this initial analysis suggests. Central government may exert top-down pressures and impose hierarchical directives, but there are important countervailing forces. Constitutional changes in Scotland and Wales have shifted the locus of central- local relations away from Westminster and Whitehall. In England, the seeding of English government regional offices in 1994 has evolved into an important structural arrangement that encourages councils to work together. Within the local government community there is now widespread acknowledgement that to achieve the ambitious targets set by central government, councils are, by necessity, bound to cooperate and work with other agencies. In recent years, the fragmentation of public service delivery has affected the scope of IMC. Elected local government in the UK is now only one piece of a complex jigsaw of agencies that provides services to the public; whether it is with non-elected bodies, such as health authorities, public protection authorities (police and fire), voluntary nonprofit organisations or for-profit bodies, councils are expected to cooperate widely with agencies in their localities. Indeed, for projects such as regeneration and community renewal, councils may act as the coordinating agency but the success of such projects is measured by collaboration and partnership working (Davies 2002). To place these developments in context, IMC is an example of how, in spite of the fragmentation of traditional forms of government, councils work with other public service agencies and other councils through the medium of interagency partnerships, collaboration between organisations and a mixed economy of service providers. Such an analysis suggests that, following changes to the system of local government, contemporary forms of IMC are less dependent on vertical arrangements (top-down direction from central government) as they are replaced by horizontal modes (expansion of networks and partnership arrangements). Evidence suggests, however that central government continues to steer local authorities through the agency of inspectorates and regulatory bodies, and through policy initiatives, such as local strategic partnerships and local area agreements (Kelly 2006), thus questioning whether, in the case of UK local government, the shift from hierarchy to network and market solutions is less differentiated and transformation less complete than some literature suggests. Vertical or horizontal pressures may promote IMC, yet similar drivers may deter collaboration between local authorities. An example of negative vertical pressure was central government's change of the systems of local taxation during the 1980s. The new taxation regime replaced a tax on property with a tax on individual residency. Although the community charge lasted only a few years, it was a highpoint of the then Conservative government policy that encouraged councils to compete with each other on the basis of the level of local taxation. In practice, however, the complexity of local government funding in the UK rendered worthless any meaningful ambition of councils competing with each other, especially as central government granting to local authorities is predicated (however imperfectly) on at least notional equalisation between those areas with lower tax yields and the more prosperous locations. Horizontal pressures comprise factors such as planning decisions. Over the last quarter century, councils have competed on the granting of permission to out-of-town retail and leisure complexes, now recognised as detrimental to neighbouring authorities because economic forces prevail and local, independent shops are unable to compete with multiple companies. These examples illustrate tensions at the core of the UK polity of whether IMC is feasible when competition between local authorities heightened by local differences reduces opportunities for collaboration. An alternative perspective on IMC is to explore whether specific purposes or functions promote or restrict it. Whether in the principle areas of local government responsibilities relating to social welfare, development and maintenance of the local infrastructure or environmental matters, there are examples of IMC. But opportunities have diminished considerably as councils lost responsibility for services provision as a result of privatisation and transfer of powers to new government agencies or to central government. Over the last twenty years councils have lost their role in the provision of further-or higher-education, public transport and water/sewage. Councils have commissioning power but only a limited presence in providing housing needs, social care and waste management. In other words, as a result of central government policy, there are, in practice, currently far fewer opportunities for councils to cooperate. Since 1997, the New Labour government has promoted IMC through vertical drivers and the development; the operation of these policy initiatives is discussed following the framework of the editors. Current examples of IMC are notable for being driven by higher tiers of government, working with subordinate authorities in principal-agent relations. Collaboration between local authorities and intra-interand cross-sectoral partnerships are initiated by central government. In other words, IMC is shaped by hierarchical drivers from higher levels of government but, in practice, is locally varied and determined less by formula than by necessity and function. © 2007 Springer.

Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Bistable regimes in an optically injected mode-locked laser

We study experimentally the dynamics of quantum-dot (QD) passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers under external optical injection. The lasers demonstrated multiple dynamical states, with bifurcation boundaries that depended upon the sign of detuning variation. The area of the hysteresis loops grew monotonically at small powers of optical injection and saturated at moderate powers. At high injection levels the hysteresis decreased and eventually disappeared.

Orders for sale:the creditor and the family home : part one

This, the first part of a two-part article on the discretionary powers of the courts to order a sale of the family home at the request of a secured creditor, considers whether the enactment of the Trusts of Land and Appointment of Trustees Act 1996 s.15 has led judicial decision making to favour the interests of the co-owner of the home. Reviews cases heard since the coming into force of the Act, looking at the factors taken into account when balancing the interests of the creditor and debtor, including the continued need to have a family home, the availability of other assets to pay off the debt, the size of the debt and the likelihood of repayment.

Orders for sale:the creditor and the family home : part 2

This, the second part of a two-part article on the discretionary powers of the courts to order a sale of the family home at the request of a secured creditor, continues the review begun in part one of common factors taken into account by the courts in post-1996 cases when balancing the interest of the creditor and debtor. Considers the availability of alternative accommodation, the health of the parties, the right to private and family life, the age of the parties, hardship a sale would cause other family members and delay on the part of the creditor in prosecution of proceedings to recover its debt.

Bistable regimes in an optically injected mode-locked laser

We study experimentally the dynamics of quantum-dot (QD) passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers under external optical injection. The lasers demonstrated multiple dynamical states, with bifurcation boundaries that depended upon the sign of detuning variation. The area of the hysteresis loops grew monotonically at small powers of optical injection and saturated at moderate powers. At high injection levels the hysteresis decreased and eventually disappeared.

Near-transform-limited picosecond pulses from a gain-switched InGaAs diode laser with fiber Bragg gratings

We have generated near-transform-limited picosecond pulses(ΔτΔν≈0.45) from a gain-switched diode laser using periodic and chirped fiber Bragg gratings. This configuration reduced the spectral bandwidth from 11 to 0.08 nm and the pulse duration was reduced, from 30 to<18 ps. Average and peak powers of 27 and 770 mW, respectively, were obtained.

Sequencing Jobs with Uncertain Processing Times and Minimizing the Weighted Total Flow Time

We consider an uncertain version of the scheduling problem to sequence set of jobs J on a single machine with minimizing the weighted total flow time, provided that processing time of a job can take on any real value from the given closed interval. It is assumed that job processing time is unknown random variable before the actual occurrence of this time, where probability distribution of such a variable between the given lower and upper bounds is unknown before scheduling. We develop the dominance relations on a set of jobs J. The necessary and sufficient conditions for a job domination may be tested in polynomial time of the number n = |J| of jobs. If there is no a domination within some subset of set J, heuristic procedure to minimize the weighted total flow time is used for sequencing the jobs from such a subset. The computational experiments for randomly generated single-machine scheduling problems with n ≤ 700 show that the developed dominance relations are quite helpful in minimizing the weighted total flow time of n jobs with uncertain processing times.