Bridging Jeffrey's Rule, AGM Revision and Dempster Conditioning in the Theory of Evidence

Belief revision characterizes the process of revising an agent’s beliefs when receiving new evidence. In the field of artificial intelligence, revision strategies have been extensively studied in the context of logic-based formalisms and probability kinematics. However, so far there is not much literature on this topic in evidence theory. In contrast, combination rules proposed so far in the theory of evidence, especially Dempster rule, are symmetric. They rely on a basic assumption, that is, pieces of evidence being combined are considered to be on a par, i.e. play the same role. When one source of evidence is less reliable than another, it is possible to discount it and then a symmetric combination operation
is still used. In the case of revision, the idea is to let prior knowledge of an agent be altered by some input information. The change problem is thus intrinsically asymmetric. Assuming the input information is reliable, it should be retained whilst the prior information should be changed minimally to that effect. To deal with this issue, this paper defines the notion of revision for the theory of evidence in such a way as to bring together probabilistic and logical views. Several revision rules previously proposed are reviewed and we advocate one of them as better corresponding to the idea of revision. It is extended to cope with inconsistency between prior and input information. It reduces to Dempster
rule of combination, just like revision in the sense of Alchourron, Gardenfors, and Makinson (AGM) reduces to expansion, when the input is strongly consistent with the prior belief function. Properties of this revision rule are also investigated and it is shown to generalize Jeffrey’s rule of updating, Dempster rule of conditioning and a form of AGM revision.

Does first aid have a place in the medical curriculum? A survey of medical students

Introduction: When a medical emergency occurs in the prehospital environment, there is an expectation from the general public for medical students to offer assistance with a similar level of competence as qualified doctors. However, the question is raised; do medical students have sufficient training in first aid skills to fulfil the role expected of them?

Prior to the publication of the latest version of Tomorrow’s Doctors by the UK General Medical Council, a student selected component (SSC) in first aid was delivered at the medical school in Queen’s University Belfast (QUB), Northern Ireland. The overwhelming popularity of this SSC prompted a desire to investigate and understand students’ experiences of first aid.

Aim: To identify first and second year medical students’ knowledge of, and attitudes towards, first aid and their expectations of the medical curriculum.

Methods: A questionnaire was delivered using TurningPoint Audience Response System® during the second semester of the 2008 - 2009 academic year to all first and second year medical students at QUB.

Results: Less than half of the students felt that they had a good level of first aid knowledge, a third would feel confident helping in an emergency and only 10% would be confident leading an emergency situation. The vast majority of students believed first aid is beneficial, that the general public expect medical students to have the knowledge to handle an emergency situation, and that a full first aid course should be included in the core medical curriculum at an early stage. They did not believe it should be a pre-requisite for medical school.

Conclusion: Only a small proportion believed their first aid knowledge adequate. An overwhelming proportion believed that first aid training is beneficial and that the public expect competency in managing emergencies. This study clearly demonstrates students’ need and desire for first aid training in the core medical curriculum at an early stage and to the highest training level possible.

Work-place social capital and smoking cessation: The Finnish Public Sector Study

AIMS:
To examine whether high social capital at work is associated with an increased likelihood of smoking cessation in baseline smokers.
DESIGN:
Prospective cohort study.
SETTING:
Finland.
PARTICIPANTS:
A total of 4853 employees who reported to be smokers in the baseline survey in 2000-2002 (response rate 68%) and responded to a follow-up survey on smoking status in 2004-2005 (response rate 77%).
MEASUREMENTS:
Work-place social capital was assessed using a validated and psychometrically tested eight-item measure. Control variables included sex, age, socio-economic position, marital status, place of work, heavy drinking, physical activity, body mass index and physician-diagnosed depression.
FINDINGS:
In multi-level logistic regression models adjusted for all the covariates, the odds for being a non-smoker at follow-up were 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI)=1.03-1.55] times higher for baseline smokers who reported high individual-level social capital than for their counterparts with low social capital. In an analysis stratified by socio-economic position, a significant association between individual-level social capital and smoking cessation was observed in the high socio-economic group [odds ratio (OR) (95% CI)=1.63 (1.01-2.63)], but not in intermediate [(OR=1.10 (0.83-1.47)] or low socio-economic groups [(OR=1.28 (0.86-1.91)]. Work unit-level social capital was not associated with smoking cessation.
CONCLUSIONS:
If the observed associations are causal, these findings suggest that high perceived social capital at work may facilitate smoking cessation among smokers in higher-status jobs.