Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at preindustrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice-free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model preindustrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

The impact of two coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the temperature and specific humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer in a climate model

The impact of two different coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the zonally averaged temperature and humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) of a Met Office climate model configuration is assessed. One parameterization is based on a linear coupling between a model prognostic variable, the ice mass mixing ratio, qi, and the integral optical properties. The second is based on the integral optical properties being parameterized as functions of qi and temperature, Tc, where the mass coefficients (i.e. scattering and extinction) are parameterized as nonlinear functions of the ratio between qi and Tc. The cirrus microphysics parameterization is based on a moment estimation parameterization of the particle size distribution (PSD), which relates the mass moment (i.e. second moment if mass is proportional to size raised to the power of 2 ) of the PSD to all other PSD moments through the magnitude of the second moment and Tc. This same microphysics PSD parameterization is applied to calculate the integral optical properties used in both radiation parameterizations and, thus, ensures PSD and mass consistency between the cirrus microphysics and radiation schemes. In this paper, the temperature-non-dependent and temperature-dependent parameterizations are shown to increase and decrease the zonally averaged temperature biases in the TTL by about 1 K, respectively. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is further demonstrated to have a positive impact on the specific humidity biases in the TTL, as well as decreasing the shortwave and longwave biases in the cloudy radiative effect. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is shown to be more consistent with TTL and global radiation observations.

The Bullough-Dodd model coupled to matter fields

The Bullough-Dodd model is an important two-dimensional integrable field theory which finds applications in physics and geometry. We consider a conformally invariant extension of it, and study its integrability properties using a zero curvature condition based on the twisted Kac-Moody algebra A(2)((2)). The one- and two-soliton solutions as well as the breathers are constructed explicitly. We also consider integrable extensions of the Bullough-Dodd model by the introduction of spinor (matter) fields. The resulting theories are conformally invariant and present local internal symmetries. All the one-soliton solutions, for two examples of those models, are constructed using a hybrid of the dressing and Hirota methods. One model is of particular interest because it presents a confinement mechanism for a given conserved charge inside the solitons. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Granularity and disaggregation in compositional modelling with applications to ecological systems

In the past decade, compositional modelling (CM) has established itself as the predominant knowledge-based approach to construct mathematical (simulation) models automatically. Although it is mainly applied to physical systems, there is a growing interest in applying CM to other domains, such as ecological and socio-economic systems. Inspired by this observation, this paper presents a method for extending the conventional CM techniques to suit systems that are fundamentally presented by interacting populations of individuals instead of physical components or processes. The work supports building model repositories for such systems, especially in addressing the most critical outstanding issues of granularity and disaggregation in ecological systems modelling.

Comparative analysis between a CAD model design and physical models obtained by manufacturing additive technologies using optical scan

This article presents a detailed study of the application of different additive manufacturing technologies (sintering process, three-dimensional printing, extrusion and stereolithographic process), in the design process of a complex geometry model and its moving parts. The fabrication sequence was evaluated in terms of pre-processing conditions (model generation and model STL SLI), generation strategy and physical model post-processing operations. Dimensional verification of the obtained models was undertook by projecting structured light (optical scan), a relatively new technology of main importance for metrology and reverse engineering. Studies were done in certain manufacturing time and production costs, which allowed the definition of an more comprehensive evaluation matrix of additive technologies.

Effects of a probiotic soy product and physical exercise on formation of pre-neoplastic lesions in rat colons in a short-term model of carcinogenic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Kondo-attractive-Hubbard model for the ordering of local magnetic moments in superconductors

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.

Positronium-hydrogen-atom scattering in a five-state model

The scattering of orthopositronium (Ps) by hydrogen atoms has been investigated in a five-state coupled-channel model allowing for Ps(1s)H(2s,2p) and Ps(2s,2p)H(1s) excitations using a recently proposed electron-exchange model potential. The higher (n greater than or equal to 3) excitations and ionization of the Ps atom are calculated using the first Born approximation. Calculations are reported of scattering lengths, phase shifts. elastic, Ps and H excitation, and total cross sections. Remarkable correlations are observed between the S-wave Ps-H binding energy and the singlet scattering length, effective range, and resonance energy obtained in various model calculations. These correlations suggest that if a Ps-H dynamical model yields the correct result for one of these four observables, it is expected to lead to the correct result for the other three. The present model, which is constructed so as to reproduce the Ps-H resonance at 4.01 eV, automatically yields a Ps-H bound state at - 1.05 eV that compares well with the accurate value of - 1.067 eV. The model leads to a singlet scattering length of 3.72a(0) and effective range of 1.67a(0), whereas the correlations suggest the precise values of 3.50a(0) and 1.65a(0) for these observables, respectively. [S1050-2947(99)07703-3].

Stable periodic waves in coupled Kuramoto-Sivashinsky-Korteweg-de Vries equations

Periodic waves are investigated in a system composed of a Kuramoto-Sivashinsky-Korteweg-de Vries (KS-KdV) equation linearly coupled to an extra linear dissipative one. The model describes, e.g., a two-layer liquid film flowing down an inclined plane. It has been recently shown that the system supports stable solitary pulses. We demonstrate that a perturbation analysis, based on the balance equation for the net field momentum, predicts the existence of stable cnoidal waves (CnWs) in the same system. It is found that the mean value u(0) of the wave field u in the main subsystem, but not the mean value of the extra field, affects the stability of the periodic waves. Three different areas can be distinguished inside the stability region in the parameter plane (L, u(0)), where L is the wave's period. In these areas, stable are, respectively, CnWs with positive velocity, constant solutions, and CnWs with negative velocity. Multistability, i.e., the coexistence of several attractors, including the waves with several maxima per period, appears at large value of L. The analytical predictions are completely confirmed by direct simulations. Stable waves are also found numerically in the limit of vanishing dispersion, when the KS-KdV equation goes over into the KS one.

The Faddeev-Jackiw approach and the conformal affine sl(2) Toda model coupled to the matter field

The conformal affine sl(2) Toda model coupled to the matter field is treated as a constrained system in the context of Faddeev-Jackiw and the (constrained) symplectic schemes. We recover from this theory either the sine-Gordon or the massive Thirring model, through a process of Hamiltonian reduction, considering the equivalence of the Noether and topological currrents as a constraint and gauge fixing the conformal symmetry. (C) 2000 Academic Press.

Gap solitons in a model of a superfluid fermion gas in optical lattices

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population persistence in weakly-coupled sinks

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)