A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

Contract cheating & the market in essays

We conduct the first empirical economic investigation of the decision to cheat by University students. We investigate student demand for essays, using hypothetical discrete choice experiments in conjunction with consequential Holt-Laury gambles to derive subjects risk preferences. Students stated willingness to participate in the essay market, and their valuation of purchased essays, vary with the characteristics of student and institutional environment. Risk preferring students, those working in a non-native language, and those believing they will attain a lower grade are willing to pay more. Purchase likelihoods and essay valuations decline as the probability of detection and associated penalty increase.

Auf dem Prüfstein: Die Umgangsweise der japanischen Regierung mit der Todesstrafe

This paper examines public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan, and explores the validity of claims about »majority public support« that have been used by the Japanese government to justify retention. This is done by analyzing three public perception surveys on the legitimacy of the Japanese death penalty system. This paper criticizes the Japanese government for accepting its own survey results, which, at face value, appear to show support for the death penalty; moreover, it concludes that the Japanese public would likely endorse the abolition of the death penalty without damaging the legitimacy of state institutions.

La adquisición de las cláusulas relativas en niños hispanohablantes: un proceso dependiente de múltiples factores

Diessel and Tomasello (2000, 2005) propose that relative clauses (RC) are acquired in a piecemeal-fashion in which children initially produce relatively simple RCs. According to their hypothesis, several factors are involved in the process of mastering these sentences: i) similarities between RCs and simpler constructions; ii) semantic and pragmatic factors; iii) children processing limitations; and iv) RC´s frequency of use in the input. We study the RCs produced by 44 Spanish speaking children, from 1;07 to 5;00 years old in order to validate Diessel and Tomasello´s hypothesis in the acquisition of Spanish RCs. Results show that i) the first RCs to appear have just one proposition; ii) first RCs do not interrupt the main clause, they are rather attached at the end of it; iii) the first RCs with two propositions are predominantly intransitives, with a relative pronoun in the subject syntactic role; iv) during first periods, factors such as semantic and syntactic processing, and memory seem to play a more determinant role than input and pragmatic factors. Input factor could be indeed involved in the acquisition of RC but in late periods, when children are older than 4;00 years old; and v) transitive RCs appear in late periods. Diessel and Tomasello´s hypothesis seem to explain our results.

Vox Populi, Vox Dei? A closer look at the ‘public opinion’ argument for retention

The Japanese government’s justification for retaining the death penalty is that abolition would erode the legitimacy of and public trust in the criminal justice system, leading to victims’ families taking justice into their own hands. This justification is based on the results of a regularly administered public opinion survey, which is said to show strong public support for the death penalty. However, a close analysis of the results of the 2014 survey fails to validate this claim. Just over a third of respondents were committed to retaining the death penalty at all costs, while the rest accepted the possibility of future abolition, with some of them seeing this as contingent on the introduction of life imprisonment without parole as an alternative sentence. These findings hardly describe a society that expects the strict application of the death penalty and whose trust in justice depends on the government’s commitment to retaining it. My reading of the 2014 survey is that the Japanese public is ready to embrace abolition. Japan, after all, is a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which calls on states not to delay or prevent abolition, so this should be welcome news for the Japanese government!

世論という神話―望むのは「死刑」ですか？’ (Public opinion myth: is ‘death’ what we really want?)

This paper summarises Mai Sato's recent report on public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan.

Encouraging use of subordination in children’s narratives: a classroom-based priming study

This study investigated the long-term effect of classroom-based input manipulation on children’s use of subordination in a story re-telling task; it also explored the role of receptive vocabulary skills and expressive grammatical abilities in predicting the likelihood of priming. During a two-week priming phase, 47 monolingual English-speaking five- year-olds heard 10 stories, one a day, that either contained a high proportion of subordinate clauses (subordination condition) or a high proportion of coordi- nate clauses (coordination condition). Post-intervention, there was a significant group difference in likelihood of subordinate use which persisted ten weeks after the priming. Neither expressive grammatical nor receptive vocabulary skills were positively correlated with the likelihood of subordinate use. These findings show that input manipulation can have a facilitative effect on the use of complex syntax over several weeks in a realistic communicative task.

A thermoelastic system of memory type in noncylindrical domains

In this paper, we consider a hyperbolic thermoelastic system of memory type in domains with moving boundary. The problem models vibrations of an elastic bar under thermal effects according to the heat conduction law of Gurtin and Pipkin. Global existence is proved by using the penalty method of Lions. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mice and larvae tracking using a particle filter with an auto-adjustable observation model

This paper proposes a novel way to combine different observation models in a particle filter framework. This, so called, auto-adjustable observation model, enhance the particle filter accuracy when the tracked objects overlap without infringing a great runtime penalty to the whole tracking system. The approach has been tested under two important real world situations related to animal behavior: mice and larvae tracking. The proposal was compared to some state-of-art approaches and the results show, under the datasets tested, that a good trade-off between accuracy and runtime can be achieved using an auto-adjustable observation model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact penalties for variational inequalities with applications to nonlinear complementarity problems

In this paper, we present a new reformulation of the KKT system associated to a variational inequality as a semismooth equation. The reformulation is derived from the concept of differentiable exact penalties for nonlinear programming. The best theoretical results are presented for nonlinear complementarity problems, where simple, verifiable, conditions ensure that the penalty is exact. We close the paper with some preliminary computational tests on the use of a semismooth Newton method to solve the equation derived from the new reformulation. We also compare its performance with the Newton method applied to classical reformulations based on the Fischer-Burmeister function and on the minimum. The new reformulation combines the best features of the classical ones, being as easy to solve as the reformulation that uses the Fischer-Burmeister function while requiring as few Newton steps as the one that is based on the minimum.

Structured minimal-memory inexact quasi-Newton method and secant preconditioners for augmented Lagrangian optimization

Augmented Lagrangian methods for large-scale optimization usually require efficient algorithms for minimization with box constraints. On the other hand, active-set box-constraint methods employ unconstrained optimization algorithms for minimization inside the faces of the box. Several approaches may be employed for computing internal search directions in the large-scale case. In this paper a minimal-memory quasi-Newton approach with secant preconditioners is proposed, taking into account the structure of Augmented Lagrangians that come from the popular Powell-Hestenes-Rockafellar scheme. A combined algorithm, that uses the quasi-Newton formula or a truncated-Newton procedure, depending on the presence of active constraints in the penalty-Lagrangian function, is also suggested. Numerical experiments using the Cute collection are presented.

Augmented Lagrangian methods under the constant positive linear dependence constraint qualification

Two Augmented Lagrangian algorithms for solving KKT systems are introduced. The algorithms differ in the way in which penalty parameters are updated. Possibly infeasible accumulation points are characterized. It is proved that feasible limit points that satisfy the Constant Positive Linear Dependence constraint qualification are KKT solutions. Boundedness of the penalty parameters is proved under suitable assumptions. Numerical experiments are presented.

Los asilados de las embajadas de Europa Occidental en Chile tras el golpe militar y sus consecuencias diplomáticas : El caso de Suecia

Given the expectations that western governments had in the reforms being implemented by the Unidad Popular, the September 1973 coup d’état in Chile caused a great international outcry. The violence and repression that accompanied the military coup produced a worldwide repudiation of the military junta. Sweden stood out most consistently among the countries that declared their opposition to Chile during the period of the dictatorship by continuously denouncing the violations to human rights. In this context, Sweden’s Ambassador to Chile, Harald Edelstam, played a very important role in saving the lives of hundreds of Chilean citizens and foreign nationals who sought refuge from the regime’s bloody repression. Making use of the privileges he enjoyed as a diplomat, Edelstam confronted the military authorities to release people wrongfully sentenced to the death penalty. As a result, he was declared persona non grata and forced to leave Chile. This was the beginning of a long and controversial diplomatic relationship that lasted until the return of democracy in Chile in 1990. This article is a first attempt at understanding how human rights violations affected bilateral relations between Chile and Sweden with respect to the diplomatic efforts of Ambassador Harald Edelstam.

On Arbitrary Selection Strategies for Basic Superposition

For first-order Horn clauses without equality, resolution is complete with an arbitrary selection of a single literal in each clause [dN 96]. Here we extend this result to the case of clauses with equality for superposition-based inference systems. Our result is a generalization of the result given in [BG 01]. We answer their question about the completeness of a superposition-based system for general clauses with an arbitrary selection strategy, provided there exists a refutation without applications of the factoring inference rule.

Regular Derivations in Basic Superposition-Based Calculi

We prove the completeness of the regular strategy of derivations for superposition-based calculi. The regular strategy was pioneered by Kanger in [Kan63], who proposed that all equality inferences take place before all other steps in the proof. We show that the strategy is complete with the elimination of tautologies. The implication of our result is the completeness of non-standard selection functions by which in non-relational clauses only equality literals (and all of them) are selected.