How Much Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts? Evaluating Interactions Between Complex Policies

This presentation focuses on methods for the evaluation of complex policies. In particular, it focuses on evaluating interactions between policies and the extent to which two or more interacting policies mutually reinforce or hinder one another, in the area of environmental sustainability. Environmental sustainability is increasingly gaining recognition as a complex policy area, requiring a more systemic perspective and approach (e.g. European Commission, 2011). Current trends in human levels of resource consumption are unsustainable, and single solutions which target isolated issues independently of the broader context have so far fallen short. Instead there is a growing call among both academics and policy practitioners for systemic change which acknowledges and engages with the complex interactions, barriers and opportunities across the different actors, sectors, and drivers of production and consumption. Policy mixes, and the combination and ordering of policies within, therefore become an important focus for those aspiring to design and manage transitions to sustainability. To this end, we need a better understanding of the interactions, synergies and conflicts between policies (Cunningham et al., 2013; Geels, 2014). As a contribution to this emerging field of research and to inform its next steps, I present a review on what methods are available to try to quantify the impacts of complex policy interactions, since there is no established method among practitioners, and I explore the merits or value of such attempts. The presentation builds on key works in the field of complexity science (e.g. Anderson, 1972), revisiting and combining these with more recent contributions in the emerging field of policy and complex systems, and evaluation (e.g. Johnstone et al., 2010). With a coalition of UK Government departments, agencies and Research Councils soon to announce the launch of a new internationally-leading centre to pioneer, test and promote innovative and inclusive methods for policy evaluation across the energy-environment-food nexus, the contribution is particularly timely.

Learning to manage complexity through simulation: students' challenges and possible strategies

Many have called for medical students to learn how to manage complexity in healthcare. This study examines the nuances of students' challenges in coping with a complex simulation learning activity, using concepts from complexity theory, and suggests strategies to help them better understand and manage complexity.Wearing video glasses, participants took part in a simulation ward-based exercise that incorporated characteristics of complexity. Video footage was used to elicit interviews, which were transcribed. Using complexity theory as a theoretical lens, an iterative approach was taken to identify the challenges that participants faced and possible coping strategies using both interview transcripts and video footage.Students' challenges in coping with clinical complexity included being: a) unprepared for 'diving in', b) caught in an escalating system, c) captured by the patient, and d) unable to assert boundaries of acceptable practice.Many characteristics of complexity can be recreated in a ward-based simulation learning activity, affording learners an embodied and immersive experience of these complexity challenges. Possible strategies for managing complexity themes include: a) taking time to size up the system, b) attuning to what emerges, c) reducing complexity, d) boundary practices, and e) working with uncertainty. This study signals pedagogical opportunities for recognizing and dealing with complexity.

Narratively framing emergent identities in post-agreement societies: patterns of the Northern Irish identity within the provincial media

The research analyses ‘Northern Irish’ identity narratives post-agreement, and examines the configuration of frame agendas in terms of individual narrative components. A content analysis utilised news published through 1997–2014 within Northern Ireland daily newspapers – the Belfast Telegraph, the Irish News and the News Letter. A process of manifest coding produced an emergent coding scheme displaying the relative stability of media frames surrounding the Northern Irish identity as broadly partisan; however, there is also a subtle narrative shift of Northern Irish identity across the time periods; and findings of a dominant framing paradigm of political and social conceptions of identification post-agreement.

No discrimination shock avoidance with sequential presentation of stimuli but shore crabs still reduce shock exposure

Insights into the potential for pain may be obtained from examination of behavioural responses to noxious stimuli. In particular, prolonged responses coupled with long-term motivational change and avoidance learning cannot be explained by nociceptive reflex but are consistent with the idea of pain. Here, we placed shore crabs alternately in two halves of a test area divided by an opaque partition. Each area had a dark shelter and in one repeated small electric shocks were delivered in an experimental but not in a control group. Crabs showed no specific avoidance of the shock shelter either during these trials or in a subsequent test in which both were offered simultaneously; however they often emerged from the shock shelter during a trial and thus avoided further shock. More crabs emerged in later trials and took less time to emerge than in early trials. Thus, despite the lack of discrimination learning between the two shelters they used other tactics to markedly reduce the amount of shock received. We note that a previous experiment using simultaneous presentation of two shelters demonstrated rapid discrimination and avoidance learning but the paradigm of sequential presentation appears to prevent this. Nevertheless, the data show clearly that the shock is aversive and tactics, other than discrimination learning, are used to avoid it. Thus, the behaviour is only partially consistent with the idea of pain.

Imperfect indifference : the rhythm, structure and politics of neutrality

Cette thèse propose l’émergence d’une poésie de l’entre deux dans la littérature expérimentale, en suivant ses développements du milieu du vingtième siècle jusqu'au début du vingt-et-unième. Cette notion d’entre-deux poétique se fonde sur une théorie du neutre (Barthes, Blanchot) comme ce qui se situe au delà ou entre l'opposition et la médiation. Le premier chapitre retrace le concept de monotonie dans la théorie esthétique depuis la période romantique où il est vu comme l'antithèse de la variabilité ou tension poétique, jusqu’à l’émergence de l’art conceptuel au vingtième siècle où il se déploie sans interruption. Ce chapitre examine alors la relation de la monotonie à la mélancolie à travers l’analyse de « The Anatomy of Monotony », poème de Wallace Stevens tiré du recueil Harmonium et l’œuvre poétique alphabet de Inger Christensen. Le deuxième chapitre aborde la réalisation d’une poésie de l’entre-deux à travers une analyse de quatre œuvres poétiques qui revisitent l’usage de l’index du livre paratextuel: l’index au long poème “A” de Louis Zukofsky, « Index to Shelley's Death » d’Alan Halsey qui apparait à la fin de l’oeuvre The Text of Shelley's Death, Cinema of the Present de Lisa Robertson, et l’oeuvre multimédia Via de Carolyn Bergvall. Le troisième chapitre retrace la politique de neutralité dans la théorie de la traduction. Face à la logique oppositionnelle de l’original contre la traduction, il propose hypothétiquement la réalisation d’une troisième texte ou « l’entre-deux », qui sert aussi à perturber les récits familiers de l’appropriation, l’absorption et l’assimilation qui effacent la différence du sujet de l’écrit. Il examine l’oeuvre hybride Secession with Insecession de Chus Pato et Erin Moure comme un exemple de poésie de l’entre-deux. A la fois pour Maurice Blanchot et Roland Barthes, le neutre représente un troisième terme potentiel qui défie le paradigme de la pensée oppositionnelle. Pour Blanchot, le neutre est la différence amenée au point de l’indifférence et de l’opacité de la transparence tandis que le désire de Barthes pour le neutre est une utopie lyrique qui se situe au-delà des contraintes de but et de marquage. La conclusion examine comment le neutre correspond au conditions de liberté gouvernant le principe de créativité de la poésie comme l’acte de faire sans intention ni raison.

An Investigation into the Use of Computer-based Simulation Games for Learning and Teaching in Business Management Courses

Computer-based simulation games (CSG) are a form of innovation in learning and teaching. CGS are used more pervasively in various ways such as a class activity (formative exercises) and as part of summative assessments (Leemkuil and De Jong, 2012; Zantow et al., 2005). This study investigates the current and potential use of CGS in Worcester Business School’s (WBS) Business Management undergraduate programmes. The initial survey of off-the-shelf simulation reveals that there are various categories of simulations, with each offering varying levels of complexity and learning opportunities depending on the field of study. The findings suggest that whilst there is marginal adoption of the use CSG in learning and teaching, there is significant opportunity to increase the use of CSG in enhancing learning and learner achievement, especially in Level 5 modules. The use of CSG is situational and its adoption should be undertaken on a case-by-case basis. WBS can play a major role by creating an environment that encourages and supports the use of CSG as well as other forms of innovative learning and teaching methods. Thus the key recommendation involves providing module teams further support in embedding and integrating CSG into their modules.

Autoavaliação institucional na dimensão do SINAES comunicação com a sociedade : estudo de múltiplos casos em instituições de ensino superior do Rio Grande do Norte

This study is about the institutional self-evaluation in Dimension 4, "Communication with Society", from the National System of Higher Education Evaluation SINAES, mandatory for all universities in Brazil. A multiple cases study was conducted with three institutions from Rio Grande do Norte, and the goal was to know how this evaluation is made, describing the concept for the evaluation of communication proposed by them, identifying controllers or emancipator aspects, categorizing methodological procedures and discussing the difficulties reported in the communication evaluation process. Coordinators of the institutions Evaluating Committees were interviewed and data categorized by means of qualitative content analysis. It was noted characteristics of the current controller, emancipator and hybrid designs in the three institutions for evaluation of communication, revealing the lack of a theoretical corpus that transits in accordance with the systemic perspective and epistemology of complexity from SINAES. It was found that the most frequently reported difficulties in the evaluation processes of communication are in the preparation stage, especially in the definition of indicators and tools and awareness work. The weakness in planning makes their own activities in the sector of communication become targets of assessment, forming goals poorly related with broader organizational goals. It was also concluded that the technical evaluation cannot override the issues associated with the broader issue of the complexity surrounding the assessment paradigm proposed by SINAES because contradictions and imperfections are part of the evaluation process and several references are current in the literature to support this view. Finally, it is said that objectives such as transparency and behavioral changes can rely on methodologies and techniques for research on the question of the construction of meaning

Issues and strategies in the parallelisation of unstructured multiphysics code

Unstructured mesh based codes for the modelling of continuum physics phenomena have evolved to provide the facility to model complex interacting systems. Such codes have the potential to provide a high performance on parallel platforms for a small investment in programming. The critical parameters for success are to minimise changes to the code to allow for maintenance while providing high parallel efficiency, scalability to large numbers of processors and portability to a wide range of platforms. The paradigm of domain decomposition with message passing has for some time been demonstrated to provide a high level of efficiency, scalability and portability across shared and distributed memory systems without the need to re-author the code into a new language. This paper addresses these issues in the parallelisation of a complex three dimensional unstructured mesh Finite Volume multiphysics code and discusses the implications of automating the parallelisation process.

Development of a transitioning approach to reduce surface water volumes in combined sewer systems

The overarching goal of this research is to establish a successful forum for a transition from the existing paradigm of managing wastewater infrastructure to a more sustainable paradigm that achieves a more efficient utilisation of wastewater assets. A transitioning approach to support a more efficient utilisation of surface water and wastewater assets and infrastructure is proposed and developed. The determined transitioning approach possesses key stages namely developing the arena, developing the agenda, case study, and monitoring. The case study stage investigates a drainage utility identifying their improvement drivers, the removal of surface water through detailed drainage modelling and the financial examination of the costs incurred under the various scenarios conducted. Understanding the implications of removing/attenuating surface water from the network is improved through obtaining data by detailed drainage modelling. Infoworks software is used to investigate and assess the current and future operational scenarios of a wastewater system operating over one calendar year. Modelling scenarios were conducted removing surface water from selected areas focusing on the volumes requiring pumping and durations of pumping station(s) operation prior to treatment during storm conditions. The financial implication of removing surface water in combined sewer systems is examined in three main components. Firstly the costs of electricity incurred at the single sewage pumping station (SPS) investigated during the various scenarios modelled require to be addressed. Secondly the costs to retrofit sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) solutions needs to be identified. Thirdly the implications of removing surface water for the drainage utility at the national level and the potential saving for householder’s committing to a surface water disconnection rebate scheme. When addressed at the macro level i.e., with over 2,100 pumping stations, some operating in sequence and contained within one drainage utility annually treating 315,360 megalitres the significance of the same multiple quantifiable and intangible benefits becomes amplified. The research aims, objectives and findings are presented to the identified and convened stakeholders. The transitioning approach developed encourages positive discourse between stakeholders. The level of success of the transitioning approach determined is then tested using a quantitative methodology through the completion of questionnaires. From the questionnaires completed the respondents unanimously agreed that surface water flows should be removed as well as reduced from the combined sewer system. The respondents agreed that the removal of surface water from a typical combined sewer system is justified by applying a transitioning approach focusing on the energy consumption required to pump increased volumes during storm events. This response is significant based upon the economic evidence and is contrary to the respondents previous position that finance was their most influencing factor. When provided with other potentially available benefits the respondents were even more supportive of the justification to remove surface water from the combined sewer system. The combined findings of the work presented in this thesis provide further justification that the transitioning approach applied to the removal of surface water from a typical combined sewer system, as determined in this research has been successful.

Medicinal Water? The occurrence and fate of pharmaceuticals in aquatic environments A short communication

Although very little is known about the transport, fate and toxic effects of medical compounds in aquatic environments, the presence of these compounds in potable water sources can no longer be overlooked. We can argue that trace concentrations of drugs in the water is relatively a minor problem, however, the current and future demands on global potable freshwater supplies will probably lead to greater incidents of indirect and direct water-reuse situations at the local, regional, and cross-border levels. It is important to remark that the solution of this emerging ecological issue does not rely on new and better wastewater treatment technologies, but a new paradigm of responsibility and the understanding of the relations between anthropogenic actions and their ecological effects as well. The objective of this brief communication is to present the state of the art of research conducted in the last decade in Europe and United States concerning the presence of pharmaceuticals products in aquatic environments.

Religion and narrative in the "Metamorphoses" of Apuleius

In this thesis I explore the narratological paradigm of conversion and its usefulness in interpreting the Metamorphoses of Apuleius. I believe that this paradigm is not useful in exploring the novel. However, a closely related paradigm - which I call a "narrative of metamorphosis" - can in fact help us interpret the novel and make sense of the final book of the novel known as the Isis book, which has generated much scholarly debate.

Probabilistic verification of satellite systems for mission critical applications

In this thesis, we present a quantitative approach using probabilistic verification techniques for the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety (RAMS) properties of satellite systems. The subject of our research is satellites used in mission critical industrial applications. A strong case for using probabilistic model checking to support RAMS analysis of satellite systems is made by our verification results. This study is intended to build a foundation to help reliability engineers with a basic background in model checking to apply probabilistic model checking to small satellite systems. We make two major contributions. One of these is the approach of RAMS analysis to satellite systems. In the past, RAMS analysis has been extensively applied to the field of electrical and electronics engineering. It allows system designers and reliability engineers to predict the likelihood of failures from the indication of historical or current operational data. There is a high potential for the application of RAMS analysis in the field of space science and engineering. However, there is a lack of standardisation and suitable procedures for the correct study of RAMS characteristics for satellite systems. This thesis considers the promising application of RAMS analysis to the case of satellite design, use, and maintenance, focusing on its system segments. Data collection and verification procedures are discussed, and a number of considerations are also presented on how to predict the probability of failure. Our second contribution is leveraging the power of probabilistic model checking to analyse satellite systems. We present techniques for analysing satellite systems that differ from the more common quantitative approaches based on traditional simulation and testing. These techniques have not been applied in this context before. We present the use of probabilistic techniques via a suite of detailed examples, together with their analysis. Our presentation is done in an incremental manner: in terms of complexity of application domains and system models, and a detailed PRISM model of each scenario. We also provide results from practical work together with a discussion about future improvements.

Towards the systematic simplification of mechanistic models

Mechanistic models used for prediction should be parsimonious, as models which are over-parameterised may have poor predictive performance. Determining whether a model is parsimonious requires comparisons with alternative model formulations with differing levels of complexity. However, creating alternative formulations for large mechanistic models is often problematic, and usually time-consuming. Consequently, few are ever investigated. In this paper, we present an approach which rapidly generates reduced model formulations by replacing a model’s variables with constants. These reduced alternatives can be compared to the original model, using data based model selection criteria, to assist in the identification of potentially unnecessary model complexity, and thereby inform reformulation of the model. To illustrate the approach, we present its application to a published radiocaesium plant-uptake model, which predicts uptake on the basis of soil characteristics (e.g. pH, organic matter content, clay content). A total of 1024 reduced model formulations were generated, and ranked according to five model selection criteria: Residual Sum of Squares (RSS), AICc, BIC, MDL and ICOMP. The lowest scores for RSS and AICc occurred for the same reduced model in which pH dependent model components were replaced. The lowest scores for BIC, MDL and ICOMP occurred for a further reduced model in which model components related to the distinction between adsorption on clay and organic surfaces were replaced. Both these reduced models had a lower RSS for the parameterisation dataset than the original model. As a test of their predictive performance, the original model and the two reduced models outlined above were used to predict an independent dataset. The reduced models have lower prediction sums of squares than the original model, suggesting that the latter may be overfitted. The approach presented has the potential to inform model development by rapidly creating a class of alternative model formulations, which can be compared.

Imperfect indifference : the rhythm, structure and politics of neutrality

Cette thèse propose l’émergence d’une poésie de l’entre deux dans la littérature expérimentale, en suivant ses développements du milieu du vingtième siècle jusqu'au début du vingt-et-unième. Cette notion d’entre-deux poétique se fonde sur une théorie du neutre (Barthes, Blanchot) comme ce qui se situe au delà ou entre l'opposition et la médiation. Le premier chapitre retrace le concept de monotonie dans la théorie esthétique depuis la période romantique où il est vu comme l'antithèse de la variabilité ou tension poétique, jusqu’à l’émergence de l’art conceptuel au vingtième siècle où il se déploie sans interruption. Ce chapitre examine alors la relation de la monotonie à la mélancolie à travers l’analyse de « The Anatomy of Monotony », poème de Wallace Stevens tiré du recueil Harmonium et l’œuvre poétique alphabet de Inger Christensen. Le deuxième chapitre aborde la réalisation d’une poésie de l’entre-deux à travers une analyse de quatre œuvres poétiques qui revisitent l’usage de l’index du livre paratextuel: l’index au long poème “A” de Louis Zukofsky, « Index to Shelley's Death » d’Alan Halsey qui apparait à la fin de l’oeuvre The Text of Shelley's Death, Cinema of the Present de Lisa Robertson, et l’oeuvre multimédia Via de Carolyn Bergvall. Le troisième chapitre retrace la politique de neutralité dans la théorie de la traduction. Face à la logique oppositionnelle de l’original contre la traduction, il propose hypothétiquement la réalisation d’une troisième texte ou « l’entre-deux », qui sert aussi à perturber les récits familiers de l’appropriation, l’absorption et l’assimilation qui effacent la différence du sujet de l’écrit. Il examine l’oeuvre hybride Secession with Insecession de Chus Pato et Erin Moure comme un exemple de poésie de l’entre-deux. A la fois pour Maurice Blanchot et Roland Barthes, le neutre représente un troisième terme potentiel qui défie le paradigme de la pensée oppositionnelle. Pour Blanchot, le neutre est la différence amenée au point de l’indifférence et de l’opacité de la transparence tandis que le désire de Barthes pour le neutre est une utopie lyrique qui se situe au-delà des contraintes de but et de marquage. La conclusion examine comment le neutre correspond au conditions de liberté gouvernant le principe de créativité de la poésie comme l’acte de faire sans intention ni raison.

Autoavaliação institucional na dimensão do SINAES comunicação com a sociedade : estudo de múltiplos casos em instituições de ensino superior do Rio Grande do Norte

This study is about the institutional self-evaluation in Dimension 4, "Communication with Society", from the National System of Higher Education Evaluation SINAES, mandatory for all universities in Brazil. A multiple cases study was conducted with three institutions from Rio Grande do Norte, and the goal was to know how this evaluation is made, describing the concept for the evaluation of communication proposed by them, identifying controllers or emancipator aspects, categorizing methodological procedures and discussing the difficulties reported in the communication evaluation process. Coordinators of the institutions Evaluating Committees were interviewed and data categorized by means of qualitative content analysis. It was noted characteristics of the current controller, emancipator and hybrid designs in the three institutions for evaluation of communication, revealing the lack of a theoretical corpus that transits in accordance with the systemic perspective and epistemology of complexity from SINAES. It was found that the most frequently reported difficulties in the evaluation processes of communication are in the preparation stage, especially in the definition of indicators and tools and awareness work. The weakness in planning makes their own activities in the sector of communication become targets of assessment, forming goals poorly related with broader organizational goals. It was also concluded that the technical evaluation cannot override the issues associated with the broader issue of the complexity surrounding the assessment paradigm proposed by SINAES because contradictions and imperfections are part of the evaluation process and several references are current in the literature to support this view. Finally, it is said that objectives such as transparency and behavioral changes can rely on methodologies and techniques for research on the question of the construction of meaning