El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Evaluation of the Importance of Attributes in Customer Satisfaction with Supermarkets in the Mid-Valley Region of the Itajai - SC

In a dynamic atmosphere of competitiveness, customer satisfaction is a key factor in the long term success of a business relationship. From this perspective, the objective of the article was to evaluate the importance of attributes and customer satisfaction with Supermarkets in the Mid-Valley region of the ltajai/SC. Research methodology is characterized as descriptive, of the survey type, with a quantitative, cross section approach. The research instrument used was a questionnaire structured with open and closed questions, according to Lickert`s scale. By means of this, the degree of importance of supermarket attributes and the level of customer satisfaction with them were verified. In regard to the importance of the attributes, cleaning, parking, safety and variety of products are the most important, while the attributes Of purchase through the internet and taste samples are the least significant ones. The results of satisfaction point to the fact that the Supermarkets Big and Angeloni presented a greater degree of satisfaction in relation to the general average in practically all of the attributes, while Bistek presented the smallest degree of satisfaction, only surpassing the average in regard to the attribute of store lighting.

Observations of anti-winds in a deep alpine valley, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

This paper presents observations of summertime anti-winds monitored under ideal conditions in the Lake Tekapo hydro-catchment situated in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand. Onset and cessation of anti-winds was observed to coincide with the change in phase of the surface limbs of thermally generated valley and mountain winds under settled anti-cyclonic conditions. Anti-winds were best developed in the early morning before surface heating and associated convective mixing of the valley atmosphere began to mask the boundaries between the surface based limb of the mountain-valley wind and the corresponding anti-wind. By mid-day, the anti-valley wind exceeded the height of the surrounding ridgeline and became embedded in the topographically channeled gradient wind. Observations presented here have both theoretical and applied implications with regard to the development of thermally generated wind systems in deep alpine valleys, and their role in the dispersion of air pollution.

Evaluation of the aquatic macroinvertebrate community as a tool for monitoring a reservoir in the Pitangui river basin, Parana, Brazil

Evaluation of the aquatic macroinvertebrate community as a tool for monitoring a reservoir in the Pitangui river basin, Parana, Brazil. Benthic and nektonic macroinvertebrates play an important role in the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems and their distribution is influenced by chemical features of the substrate, vegetation composition, and water depth. Knowledge on the fauna contributes to the assessment of water quality and development of biodiversity conservation activities. Different biotic factors affecting the invertebrate community were evaluated in the Alagados reservoir, the main water source of the city of Ponta Grossa, Parana. In five different sampling points, 18,473 specimens of aquatic or semiaquatic macroinvertebrates were collected, belonging to 46 taxa of the phylla Annelida (Hirudinea and Oligochaeta), Mollusca (Gastropoda), Platyhelminthes (Turbellaria), Nematoda and Arthropoda (Arachnida, Crustacea and Insecta). This community was composed mainly of predators (45.7% of the taxa sampled), collectors and/or filterers (23.9%), scrapers (15.2%), shredders (13.0%) and detritivores (2.2%). Diversity (H`) and evenness (J) indices were significantly low for the sites examined, and H` ranged between 0.3301 and 1.0396. Regarding tolerance of organisms to organic pollution, more sensitive taxa were very rare (Plecoptera) or unusual (Trichoptera and Ephemeroptera). Among the more resistant groups are Chironomidae and Hirudinea, both fairly common in the samples. This study corroborates the importance of bioindicators as a tool to assess water quality for human consumption and for the conservation of aquatic environments, integrating physical, chemical and biological factors in monitoring programs.

Composition and diversity of Ephemeroptera (Insecta) nymph communities in the middle section of the Jacui River and some tributaries, southern Brazil

The taxonomic composition and diversity of assemblages of Ephemeroptera nymphs of four lotic environments in the central region of State of Rio Grande do Sul, a subtropical area in southern Brazil, were evaluated. Samplings were done monthly, with a Surber sampler, from June 2001 to May 2002, in the Jacui River and three of its tributaries. The total number of nymphs collected in the four sampling sites was 11,007 in five families and 19 genera, of these, 11 are new records for the State. The highest diversity occurred in Point 4 (H` = 2.41) and the lowest in Point 2 (H` = 1.69). Point 4 had the highest environmental stability, conservation of the riparian vegetation and the lowest anthropic impact, while Point 2 presented a large environmental simplification due to a direct anthropic influence ( e. g. domestic sewerage, trampling by cattle). The diversity of nymphs observed in the total area is high, compared to the estimated maximum theoretical diversity; a result of the high evenness and richness recorded. Rarefaction curves, calculated for a sample of 1,018 specimens, showed a similar expectation of richness for the four sampling sites. This result seems to be associated with the overall environmental homogeneity of the region caused by long-term alterations ( land use and deforestation). In summary, higher diversity of Ephemeroptera nymph assemblages seems to be associated with habitat complexity, a good vegetation cover and a lower anthropic influence.

Identification of river sections for domestic water supply along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China

This paper presents major findings from a recent study aiming to systematically determine suitable river sections for local domestic water supply along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China. On the basis of analysis on the current riverbank utilization and bank stability, accessible and stable river sections in the region were selected. The water quality in these river sections was then studied using a two-dimensional unsteady flow and pollutant transport/transformation model, RBFVM-2D. The model was calibrated and verified against the hydrodynamic data, water quality data and remote sensing data collected from the river. The investigation on the pollution sources along the river identified 56 main pollution point sources. The pollution zones downstream of these point sources are the main threat for the water quality in the river. The model was used to compute the pollution zones. In particular, simulations were conducted to establish the relationship between the extent of the pollution zone and the wastewater discharge rate of the associated point source. These water quality simulation results were combined with the riverbank stability analysis to determine suitable river sections for local domestic water supply.