Organic certification, export market access and the impacts of policy: Bayesian estimation of avocado smallholder “times-to-organic certification” in Michoacán Mexico

This study analyzes organic adoption decisions using a rich set of time-to-organic durations collected from avocado small-holders in Michoacán Mexico. We derive robust, intrasample predictions about the profiles of entry and exit within the conventional-versus-organic complex and we explore the sensitivity of these predictions to choice of functional form. The dynamic nature of the sample allows us to make retrospective predictions and we establish, precisely, the profile of organic entry had the respondents been availed optimal amounts of adoption-restraining resources. A fundamental problem in the dynamic adoption literature, hitherto unrecognized, is discussed and consequent extensions are suggested.

The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times

Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.

The potential for community groups to promote sustainable living

In recent times there has been a growing recognition amongst policy-makers of the role for community-based action in contributing to the broader aims of energy policy and climate change. In this paper, we will examine the potential for existing community groups to use their influence and elements of internal cohesion to encourage more widespread understanding and adoption of sustainable lifestyle habits; both amongst their members and within the broader communities of which they are a part. Findings are presented from recent empirical work with a range of well-established community groups for whom environmental issues are not their main priority. A central aspect of the research was to explore both the current status and potential role of groups that may have the capacity to reach and influence a broader sphere of the public than energy/environment specific initiatives of recent times have been able to achieve. Representing a diversity of interests, age groups and functionality, the results suggest that the potential for more effective ‘bottom-up’ engagement on climate change and sustainable living might be given fresh impetus by these types of established community groups and their networks. An assessment of what motivates participation and membership in the groups highlights a series of factors common to all groups and a smaller number that are significant for particular groups individually. It is argued that an appreciation of motivating factors can be useful in understanding more clearly how such groups are able to survive and maintain cohesion over time. The findings also suggest that climate change action means different things for different groups, with the diversity of the groups bringing with it the challenge of making sustainable living relevant to a range of interests and different shared values.

Professionalism and professional institutions in times of change

Professionalism and professional institutions have developed and changed very gradually in recent decades, such that there are conflicting and competing definitions of what it means to be a professional. The direction of travel is examined through an institutional lens in terms of current trends and practices that have transformed professional life. At first sight, the evolution of professionalism appears to be developing into a new professionalism that requires less of professional institutions and more of the institutions of societal governance, such as contracts and statutes. These transformations are explored with reference to the need for a sustainable urban environment, showing that despite a reduced role of professional institutions, certain aspects of professionalism remain crucially important, especially in those jurisdictions where societal governance is not well developed. With the growing sophistication of legislation, insurance and commerce, the emphasis of what it means to be a professional is evolving. One key aspect of professionalism that is not usually listed in most texts is role definition and how this provides a sense of identity. Professionalism remains a relevant and important concept, but the exigencies of a sustainable urban environment transcend the objectives of the professions and demand a broader, collaborative and participative agenda.

The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

Evidence for global climate reorganization during medieval times

A synthesis of global climate model results and inferences from proxy records suggests an increased sea surface temperature gradient between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans during medieval times.

On the 'downward control' of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces

The situation considered is that of a zonally symmetric model of the middle atmosphere subject to a given quasi-steady zonal force F̄, conceived to be the result of irreversible angular momentum transfer due to the upward propagation and breaking of Rossby and gravity waves together with any other dissipative eddy effects that may be relevant. The model's diabatic heating is assumed to have the qualitative character of a relaxation toward some radiatively determined temperature field. To the extent that the force F̄ may be regarded as given, and the extratropical angular momentum distribution is realistic, the extratropical diabatic mass flow across a given isentropic surface may be regarded as controlled exclusively by the F̄ distribution above that surface (implying control by the eddy dissipation above that surface and not, for instance, by the frequency of tropopause folding below). This “downward control” principle expresses a critical part of the dynamical chain of cause and effect governing the average rate at which photochemical products like ozone become available for folding into, or otherwise descending into, the extratropical troposphere. The dynamical facts expressed by the principle are also relevant, for instance, to understanding the seasonal-mean rate of upwelling of water vapor to the summer mesopause, and the interhemispheric differences in stratospheric tracer transport. The robustness of the principle is examined when F̄ is time-dependent. For a global-scale, zonally symmetric diabatic circulation with a Brewer-Dobson-like horizontal structure given by the second zonally symmetric Hough mode, with Rossby height HR = 13 km in an isothermal atmosphere with density scale height H = 7 km, the vertical partitioning of the unsteady part of the mass circulation caused by fluctuations in F̄ confined to a shallow layer LF̄ is always at least 84% downward. It is 90% downward when the force fluctuates sinusoidally on twice the radiative relaxation timescale and 95% if five times slower. The time-dependent adjustment when F̄ is changed suddenly is elucidated, extending the work of Dickinson (1968), when the atmosphere is unbounded above and below. Above the forcing, the adjustment is characterized by decay of the meridional mass circulation cell at a rate proportional to the radiative relaxation rate τr−1 divided by {1 + (4H2/HR2)}. This decay is related to the boundedness of the angular momentum that can be taken up by the finite mass of air above LF̄ without causing an ever-increasing departure from thermal wind balance. Below the forcing, the meridional mass circulation cell penetrates downward at a speed τr−1 HR2/H. For the second Hough mode, the time for downward penetration through one density scale height is about 6 days if the radiative relaxation time is 20 days, the latter being representative of the lower stratosphere. At any given altitude, a steady state is approached. The effect of a rigid lower boundary on the time-dependent adjustment is also considered. If a frictional planetary boundary layer is present then a steady state is ultimately approached everywhere, with the mass circulation extending downward from LF̄ and closing via the boundary layer. Satellite observations of temperature and ozone are used in conjunction with a radiative transfer scheme to estimate the altitudes from which the lower stratospheric diabatic vertical velocity is controlled by the effective F̄ in the real atmosphere. The data appear to indicate that about 80% of the effective control is usually exerted from below 40 km but with significant exceptions up to 70 km (in the high latitude southern hemispheric winter). The implications for numerical modelling of chemical transport are noted.

Emotions and the habitus: Young people with socio-emotional differences (re)producing social, emotional and cultural capital in family and leisure space-times

In this paper we explore the importance of emotionally inter-dependent relationships to the functioning of embodied social capital and habitus. Drawing upon the experiences of young people with socio-emotional differences, we demonstrate how emotionally inter-dependent and relatively nurturing relationships are integral to the acquisition of social capital and to the co-construction and embodiment of habitus. The young people presented in this paper often had difficulties in forging social relationships and in acquiring symbolic and cultural capital in school spaces. However, we outline how these young people (re)produce and embody alternative kinds of habitus, based on emotionally reciprocal relationships forged through formal and informal leisure activities and familial and fraternal social relationships. These alternative forms of habitus provide sites of subjection, scope for acquiring social and cultural capital and a positive sense of identity in the face of problematic relations and experiences in school spaces.

Computing journey start times with recurrent traffic conditions

n this study, the authors discuss the effective usage of technology to solve the problem of deciding on journey start times for recurrent traffic conditions. The developed algorithm guides the vehicles to travel on more reliable routes that are not easily prone to congestion or travel delays, ensures that the start time is as late as possible to avoid the traveller waiting too long at their destination and attempts to minimise the travel time. Experiments show that in order to be more certain of reaching their destination on time, a traveller has to leave early and correspondingly arrive early, resulting in a large waiting time. The application developed here asks the user to set this certainty factor as per the task in hand, and computes the best start time and route.