Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.

The first real-time worldwide ionospheric predictions network: an advance in support of spaceborne experimentation, on-line model validation, and space weather

We report on the first realtime ionospheric predictions network and its capabilities to ingest a global database and forecast F-layer characteristics and "in situ" electron densities along the track of an orbiting spacecraft. A global network of ionosonde stations reported around-the-clock observations of F-region heights and densities, and an on-line library of models provided forecasting capabilities. Each model was tested against the incoming data; relative accuracies were intercompared to determine the best overall fit to the prevailing conditions; and the best-fit model was used to predict ionospheric conditions on an orbit-to-orbit basis for the 12-hour period following a twice-daily model test and validation procedure. It was found that the best-fit model often provided averaged (i.e., climatologically-based) accuracies better than 5% in predicting the heights and critical frequencies of the F-region peaks in the latitudinal domain of the TSS-1R flight path. There was a sharp contrast however, in model-measurement comparisons involving predictions of actual, unaveraged, along-track densities at the 295 km orbital altitude of TSS-1R In this case, extrema in the first-principle models varied by as much as an order of magnitude in density predictions, and the best-fit models were found to disagree with the "in situ" observations of Ne by as much as 140%. The discrepancies are interpreted as a manifestation of difficulties in accurately and self-consistently modeling the external controls of solar and magnetospheric inputs and the spatial and temporal variabilities in electric fields, thermospheric winds, plasmaspheric fluxes, and chemistry.

Characterising the use of urban space: a geochemical case study from Calleva Atrebatum (Silchester, Hampshire, UK) Insula IX during the late first/early second century AD

The geochemical analysis of soil samples from the Roman town of Calleva Atrebatum (Silchester, Hampshire, UK) has been undertaken in order to enhance our understanding of urban occupation during the late first/early second century AD. Samples taken from a variety of occupation deposits within several, contemporary timber buildings, including associated hearths, have been analysed using laboratory-based x-ray fluorescence for a suite of elements (Cu, Zn, Pb, Sr, P and Ca). The patterns of elemental enrichment seen across the site have allowed us to compare and contrast the buildings that were occupied during this time in an attempt to distinguish different uses, such as between domestic and work-space. Two of the buildings stand out as having high concentrations of elements which suggest that they were dirtier work spaces, whilst other buildings appear to be have lower chemical loadings suggesting they were cleaner.

Sequential hydrocarbon biodegradation of a soil from arid coastal Australia oil-treated under laboratory controlled conditions

A general consistency in the sequential order of petroleum hydrocarbon reduction in previous biodegradation studies has led to the proposal of several molecularly based biodegradation scales. Few studies have investigated the biodegradation susceptibility of petroleum hydrocarbon products in soil media, however, and metabolic preferences can change with habitat type. A laboratory based study comprising gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) analysis of extracts of oil-treated soil samples incubated for up to 161 days was conducted to investigate the biodegradation of crude oil exposed to sandy soils of Barrow Island, home to both a Class ‘‘A” nature reserve and Australia’s largest on-shore oil field. Biodegradation trends of the hydrocarbon-treated soils were largely consistent with previous reports but some unusual behaviour was recognised both between and within hydrocarbon classes. For example, the n-alkanes persisted at trace levels from day 86 to 161 following the removal of typically more stable dimethyl naphthalenes and methyl phenanthrenes. The relative susceptibility to biodegradation of different di- tri- and tetramethylnaphthalene isomers also showed several features distinct from previous reports. The unique biodegradation behaviour of Barrow Is. soil likely reflects difference in microbial functioning with physiochemical variation in the environment. Correlation of molecular parameters, reduction rates of selected alkyl naphthalene isomers and CO2 respiration values with a delayed (61 d) oil-treated soil identified a slowing of biodegradation with microcosm incubation; a reduced function or population of incubated soil flora might also influence the biodegradation patterns observed.

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

English compound and non-compound processing in bilingual and multilingual speakers: effects of dominance and sequential multilingualism

This article reports on a study investigating the relative influence of the first and dominant language on L2 and L3 morpho-lexical processing. A lexical decision task compared the responses to English NV-er compounds (e.g., taxi driver) and non-compounds provided by a group of native speakers and three groups of learners at various levels of English proficiency: L1 Spanish-L2 English sequential bilinguals and two groups of early Spanish-Basque bilinguals with English as their L3. Crucially, the two trilingual groups differed in their first and dominant language (i.e., L1 Spanish-L2 Basque vs. L1 Basque-L2 Spanish). Our materials exploit an (a)symmetry between these languages: while Basque and English pattern together in the basic structure of (productive) NV-er compounds, Spanish presents a construction that differs in directionality as well as inflection of the verbal element (V[3SG] + N). Results show between and within group differences in accuracy and response times that may be ascribable to two factors besides proficiency: the number of languages spoken by a given participant and their dominant language. An examination of response bias reveals an influence of the participants' first and dominant language on the processing of NV-er compounds. Our data suggest that morphological information in the nonnative lexicon may extend beyond morphemic structure and that, similarly to bilingualism, there are costs to sequential multilingualism in lexical retrieval.

Impact of lipoprotein lipase gene polymorphism, S447X, on postprandial triacylglycerol and glucose response to sequential meal ingestion

Lipoprotein lipase (LPL) is a key rate-limiting enzyme for the hydrolysis of triacylglycerol (TAG) in chylomicrons and very low-density lipoprotein. Given that postprandial assessment of lipoprotein metabolism may provide a more physiological perspective of disturbances in lipoprotein homeostasis compared to assessment in the fasting state, we have investigated the influence of two commonly studied LPL polymorphisms (rs320, HindIII; rs328, S447X) on postprandial lipaemia, in 261 participants using a standard sequential meal challenge. S447 homozygotes had lower fasting HDL-C (p = 0.015) and a trend for higher fasting TAG (p = 0.057) concentrations relative to the 447X allele carriers. In the postprandial state, there was an association of the S447X polymorphism with postprandial TAG and glucose, where S447 homozygotes had 12% higher TAG area under the curve (AUC) (p = 0.037), 8.4% higher glucose-AUC (p = 0.006) and 22% higher glucose-incremental area under the curve (IAUC) (p = 0.042). A significant gene–gender interaction was observed for fasting TAG (p = 0.004), TAG-AUC (Pinteraction = 0.004) and TAG-IAUC (Pinteraction = 0.016), where associations were only evident in men. In conclusion, our study provides novel findings of an effect of LPL S447X polymorphism on the postprandial glucose and gender-specific impact of the polymorphism on fasting and postprandial TAG concentrations in response to sequential meal challenge in healthy participants

Histological Outcomes on the Development of New Space-making Devices for Maxillary Sinus Floor Augmentation

Background: Previous studies have pointed out that the mere elevation of the maxillary sinus membrane promotes bone formation without the use of augmentation materials. Purpose: This experimental study aimed at evaluating if the two-stage procedure for sinus floor augmentation could benefit from the use of a space-making device in order to increase the bone volume to enable later implant installation with good primary stability. Materials and Methods: Six male tufted capuchin primates (Cebus apella) were subjected to extraction of the three premolars and the first molar on both sides of the maxilla to create an edentulous area. The sinuses were opened using the lateral bone-wall window technique, and the membrane was elevated. One resorbable space-making device was inserted in each maxillary sinus, and the bone window was returned in place. The animals were euthanatized after 6 months, and biopsy blocks containing the whole maxillary sinus and surrounding soft tissues were prepared for ground sections. Results: The histological examination of the specimens showed bone formation in contact with both the schneiderian membrane and the device in most cases even when the device was displaced. The process of bone formation indicates that this technique is potentially useful for two-stage sinus floor augmentation. The lack of stabilization of the device within the sinus demands further improvement of space-makers for predictable bone augmentation. Conclusions: It is concluded that (1) the device used in this study did not trigger any important inflammatory reaction; (2) when the sinus membrane was elevated, bone formation was a constant finding; and (3) an ideal space-making device should be stable and elevate the membrane to ensure a maintained connection between the membrane and the secluded space.

Unilateral Correction of Space Loss in the Mixed Dentition

Distalization of maxillary molars is indicated for correction of Class II dental malocclusion and for space gain in cases of space deficiency. The ideal treatment with an intraoral fixed appliance for molar distalization should fulfill the following requirements: patient compliance; acceptable esthetics; comfort; minimum anterior anchor loss (as evidenced by inclination of incisors); bodily movement of the molars to avoid undesirable effects and unstable outcomes; and minimum time required during sessions for placement and activations. The purpose of this paper was to present an alternative treatment for space recovery in the area of the maxillary right second premolar when there has been significant mesial movement of the permanent maxillary right first molar. We used a modified appliance that allows unilateral molar distalization in cases of unilateral tooth/arch size discrepancy using the opposite side as anchor, thus reducing the mesialization of the anterior teeth. (Pediatr Dent 2008;30:334-41) Received August 17, 2006 / Last Revision October 17, 2007 / Revision Accepted October 17, 2007

Contribution to the ground-based follow-up of the Gaia space mission

The Gaia Space Mission [Mignard, F., 2005. The three-dimensional universe with Gaia. ESA/SP-576; Perryman, M., 2005. The three-dimensional universe with Gaia. ESA/SP-576] will observe several transient events as supernovae, microlensing, gamma ray bursts and new Solar System objects. The satellite, due to its scanning law, will detect these events but will not be able to monitor them. So, to take these events into consideration and to perform further studies it is necessary to follow them with Earth-based observations. These observations could be efficiently done by a ground-based network of well-equipped telescopes scattered in both hemispheres. Here we focus our attention at the new Solar System objects to be discovered and observed by the Gaia satellite [Mignard, F., 2002. Observations of Solar System objects by Gaia I. Detection of NEOS. Astron. Astrophys. 393, 727] mainly asteroids, NEOs and comets. A dedicated ground-based network of telescopes as proposed by Thuillot [2005. The three-dimensional universe with Gaia. ESA/SP-576] will allow to monitor those events, to avoid losing them and to perform a quick characterization of some physical properties which will be important for the identification of these objects in further measurements by Gaia. We present in this paper, the beginning of the organization of a Latin-American ground-based network of telescopes and observers joining several institutions in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and other Latin-American countries aiming to contribute to the follow-up of Gaia science alerts for Solar System objects. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exoplanet discoveries with the CoRoT space observatory

The CoRoT space observatory is a project which is led by the French space agency CNES and leading space research institutes in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Germany and Spain and also the European Space Agency ESA. CoRoT observed since its launch in December 27, 2006 about 100 000 stars for the exoplanet channel, during 150 days uninterrupted high-precision photometry. Since the The CoRoT-team has several exoplanet candidates which are currently analyzed under its study, we report here the discoveries of nine exoplanets which were observed by CoRoT. Discovered exoplanets such as CoRoT-3b populate the brown dwarf desert and close the gap of measured physical properties between usual gas giants and very low mass stars. CoRoT discoveries extended the known range of planet masses down to about 4.8 Earth-masses (CoRoT-7b) and up to 21 Jupiter masses (CoRoT-3b), the radii to about 1.68 x 0.09 R (Earth) (CoRoT-7b) and up to the most inflated hot Jupiter with 1.49 x 0.09 R (Earth) found so far (CoRoT-1b), and the transiting exoplanet with the longest period of 95.274 days (CoRoT-9b). Giant exoplanets have been detected at low metallicity, rapidly rotating and active, spotted stars. Two CoRoT planets have host stars with the lowest content of heavy elements known to show a transit hinting towards a different planethost-star-metallicity relation then the one found by radial-velocity search programs. Finally the properties of the CoRoT-7b prove that rocky planets with a density close to Earth exist outside the Solar System. Finally the detection of the secondary transit of CoRoT-1b at a sensitivity level of 10(-5) and the very clear detection of the ""super-Earth"" CoRoT-7b at 3.5 x 10(-4) relative flux are promising evidence that the space observatory is being able to detect even smaller exoplanets with the size of the Earth.

Slicing the metric space to provide quick indexing of complex data in the main memory

Searching in a dataset for elements that are similar to a given query element is a core problem in applications that manage complex data, and has been aided by metric access methods (MAMs). A growing number of applications require indices that must be built faster and repeatedly, also providing faster response for similarity queries. The increase in the main memory capacity and its lowering costs also motivate using memory-based MAMs. In this paper. we propose the Onion-tree, a new and robust dynamic memory-based MAM that slices the metric space into disjoint subspaces to provide quick indexing of complex data. It introduces three major characteristics: (i) a partitioning method that controls the number of disjoint subspaces generated at each node; (ii) a replacement technique that can change the leaf node pivots in insertion operations; and (iii) range and k-NN extended query algorithms to support the new partitioning method, including a new visit order of the subspaces in k-NN queries. Performance tests with both real-world and synthetic datasets showed that the Onion-tree is very compact. Comparisons of the Onion-tree with the MM-tree and a memory-based version of the Slim-tree showed that the Onion-tree was always faster to build the index. The experiments also showed that the Onion-tree significantly improved range and k-NN query processing performance and was the most efficient MAM, followed by the MM-tree, which in turn outperformed the Slim-tree in almost all the tests. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.