The continuum of quasi-psychotic beliefs and experiences in the Australian general public

When surveyed, many individuals without psychosis report a range of beliefs and experiences that are shared by patients with psychosis. This study aimed to examine quasi-psychotic beliefs and experiences in a sample of well Australians. 303 individuals were recruited from a defined catchment area as part of the Brisbane Psychosis Study. All subjects were screened with a modified SCAN in order to exclude psychoses. The Peters Delusional Inventory (PDI 40 items), items from the Chapmans' Psychosis Proneness Scale (PPS), the Communication Awareness Scale (CAS: a measure of awareness of thought disorder), items related to perceptions and beliefs from various schizotypy questionnaires and the Social Desirability (SD) items from the EPQ were administered. There was a significant negative correlation between age and total score on the PDI. There were significant positive correlations between the PDI, the PPS, the CAS and the items related to perception. There were no significant gender differences on any of the scores apart from SD (females had higher scores). Those with a positive family history of mental illness other than schizophrenia (n = 118) scored significantly higher on the PDI and scores related to perception, however they were no different on SD or the Psychosis Proneness items. There were no group differences on any of these items when those with a positive family history of schizophrenia (n = 27) were compared to the rest of the group. Well individuals who endorse delusional beliefs also tend to endorse items related to abnormal perceptions and awareness of thought disorder. The results of the study support the concept of a 'continuum of beliefs and experiences' in the general community that should inform our neurocognitive models of the symptoms of psychosis. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

The influence of supra-optimal root-zone temperatures on growth and stomatal conductance in Capsicum annuum L.

Pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) plants were grown aeroponically in a Singapore greenhouse under natural diurnally fluctuating ambient shoot temperatures, but at two different root-zone temperatures (RZTs): a constant 20 +/- 2 degrees C RZT and a diurnally fluctuating ambient (A) (25-40 degrees C) RZT, Plants grown at 20-RZT had more leaves, greater leaf area and dry weight than A-RZT plants. Reciprocal transfer experiments were conducted between RZTs to investigate the effect on plant growth, stomatal conductance (g(s)) and water relations. Transfer of plants from A-RZT to 20-RZT increased plant dry weight, leaf area, number of leaves, shoot water potential (Psi(shoot)), and g(s); while transfer of plants from 20-RZT to A-RZT decreased these parameters. Root hydraulic conductivity was measured in the latter transfer and decreased by 80% after 23 d at A-RZT. Transfer of plants from 20-RZT to A-RZT had no effect on xylem ABA concentration or xylem nitrate concentration, but reduced xylem sap pH by 0.2 units. At both RZTs, g(s) measured in the youngest fully expanded leaves increased with plant development. In plants with the same number of leaves, A-RZT plants had a higher g(s) than 20-RZT plants, but only under high atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. The roles of chemical signals and hydraulic factors in controlling g(s) of aeroponically grown Capsicum plants at different RZTs are discussed.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Public health implications of new guidelines for lead in drinking water: a case study in an area with historically high water lead levels

Concern about the neurotoxicity of lead, particularly in infants and young children, has led to a revision of blood lead levels which are considered to involve an acceptable level of human exposure. Drinking water guidelines have also been reviewed in order to reduce this source of population exposure to lead. In the last 20 years, guidelines have been reduced from 100 to 50 to 10 mu g/litre. Lead in tap water used to be a major public health problem in Glasgow because of the high prevalence of houses with lead service pipes, the low pH of the public water supply and the resulting high levels of lead in water used for public consumption. Following two separate programmes of water treatment, involving the addition of lime and, a decade later, lime supplemented with orthophosphate, it is considered that maximal measures have been taken to reduce lead exposure by chemical treatment of the water supply. Any residual problem of public exposure would require large scale replacement of lead service pipes. In anticipation of the more stringent limits for lead in drinking water, we set out to measure current lead exposure From tap water in the population of Glasgow served by the Loch Katrine water supply. to compare the current situation with 12 years previously and to assess the public health implications of different limits. The study was based on mothers of young children since maternal blood lead concentrations and the domestic water that mothers use to prepare bottle feeds are the principal sources of foetal and infant lead exposure. An estimated 17% of mothers lived in households with tap water lead concentrations of 10 mu g/litre (the WHO guideline) or above in 1993 compared with 49% in 1981. Mean maternal blood lead concentrations fell by 69% in 12 years. For a given water lead concentration, maternal blood lead concentrations were 67% lower. The mean maternal blood lead concentration was 3.7 mu g/litre in the population at large, compared with 3.3 mu g/litre in households with negligible or absent tap water lead. Nevertheless, between 63% and 76% of cases of mothers with blood lead concentrations of 10 mu g/dl or above were attributable to tap water lead. The study found that maternal blood lead concentrations were well within limits currently considered safe for human health. About 15% of infants may be exposed via bottle feeds to tap water lead concentrations that exceed the WHO guideline of 10 mu g/litre. In the context of the health and social problems which affect the well-being and development of infants and children in Glasgow, however, current levels of lend exposure are considered to present a relatively minor health problem. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Heroin-assisted treatment as a response to the public health problem of opiate dependence

Injection drug use (involving the injection of illicit opiates) poses serious public health problems in many countries. Research has indicated that injection drug users are at higher risk for morbidity in the form of HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis B and C, and drug-related mortality, as well as increased criminal activity. Methadone maintenance treatment is the most prominent form of pharmacotherapy treatment for illicit opiate dependence in several countries, and its application varies internationally with respect to treatment regulations and delivery modes. In order to effectively treat those patients who have previously been resistant to methadone maintenance treatment, several countries have been studying and/or considering heroin-assisted treatment as a complementary form of opiate pharmacotherapy treatment. This paper provides an overview of the prevalence of injection drug use and the opiate dependence problem internationally, the current opiate dependence treatment landscape in several countries, and the status of ongoing or planned heroin-assisted treatment trials in Australia, Canada and certain European countries.

Is there a role for axillary dissection for patients with operable breast cancer in this era of conservatism?

Background: The trend in breast cancer surgery is toward more conservative operative procedures. The new staging technique of sentinel node biopsy facilitates the identification of pathological node-negative patients in whom axillary dissection may be avoided. However, patients with a positive sentinel node biopsy would require a thorough examination of their nodal status. An axillary dissection provides good local control, and accurate staging and prognostic information to inform decisions about adjuvant therapy. In addition, the survival benefit of axillary treatment is still debated. The objectives of the present study were to examine the pattern of lymph node metastases in the axilla, and evaluate the merits of a level III axillary dissection. Methods : Between June 1997 and May 2000, 308 patients underwent a total of 320 level III dissections as part of their treatment for operable invasive breast cancer. The three axillary levels were marked intraoperatively, and the contents in each level were submitted and examined separately. The patterns of axillary lymph node (ALN) metastases were examined, and factors associated with 4 positive nodes, and level III ALN metastases were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: An average of 25 lymph nodes were examined per case (range: 8-54), and using strict anatomical criteria, the mean numbers of ALN found in levels I, II and III were 18 (range: 2-43), 4 (range: 0 19), and 3 ( range: 0-11), respectively. Axillary lymph node involvement was found in 45% of the cases (143/320). Of the 143 cases, 78% (n = 111) had involvement of level I nodes only, and 21% (n = 30) had positive ALN in levels II and, or, III, in addition to level I. Involvement of lymph nodes in level II or III without a level I metastasis was found in two cases only (0.6%). By including level II, in addition to level I, in the dissection, four cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.64). By the inclusion of level III to a level I and II dissection, three cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.74). Involvement of lymph nodes in level III was found in 22 cases (7%), and 51 cases (16%) had 4 positive nodes. Palpability of ALN, pathological tumour size, and lymphovascular invasion (LVI), were significantly associated with level III involvement and 4 positive nodes by univariate and multivariate analyses. The frequencies of level III involvement and 4 positive nodes in patients with palpable ALN were 22% and 42%, respectively. The corresponding frequencies in patients with a clinically negative axilla, and a primary tumour which was >20 mm and LVI positive, were over 14% and 31%, respectively. Conclusion: Level III axillary dissection is appropriate for patients with palpable ALN, and in those with a tumour which is >20 mm and LVI positive, principally to reduce the risk of axillary recurrence. Staging accuracy is achieved with a level II dissection, or even a level I dissection alone based on strict anatomical criteria. Sentinel node biopsy is a promising technique in identifying pathological node-positive patients in whom an axillary clearance provides optimal local control and staging information.

Chimeric 16S rDNA sequences of diverse origin are accumulating in the public databases

A significant number of chimeric 16S rDNA sequences of diverse origin were identified in the public databases by partial treeing analysis. This suggests that chimeric sequences, representing phylogenetically novel non-existent organisms, are routinely being overlooked in molecular phylogenetic surveys despite a general awareness of PCR-generated artefacts amongst researchers.

Production efficiency and financing of public health: an analysis of small municipalities in the state of Sao Paulo - Brazil

This paper measured the variations in performance of small municipalities in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, regarding the technical efficiency in the use of public funds in public primary health care actions concerning the funding profile, in a scenario of fiscal federalism. Technical efficiency is one of the parameters of evaluation of public sector performance and was measured by means of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The correlation analysis of DEA score was used to verify possible associations between technical efficiency and the funding profile of expenses with health care. The results showed that 6.41% of the municipalities were considered efficient. They also showed that the level of municipality dependence to inter-governmental general purpose grants and the national health funding specific purpose grants have negative correlation with efficiency scores.

BEYOND SAMUELSON`S CHAPTER ON RAMSEY

Paul Anthony Samuelson proposed and practiced a program for the Whig history of economics. One such example is his account of Frank Ramsey`s contribution to optimal taxation in 1927. For him, and mainly for the public finance economists who rediscovered later Ramsey`s contribution, Ramsey was a genius ahead of his time who used a mathematics too advanced for his contemporaries and was thus rediscovered only in the 1970S, when economists became more mathematically literate. In such rediscovery, a memorandum that Samuelsom wrote in 1951 for the us Treasury became central. I examine Samuelson`s account and challenge it in some respects and explore the historical context of the emergence of the optimal taxation literature in the 1970S. Additional, I analyze the canonization of Ramsey in this field, stressing Samuelson`s role in this process as a professor who liked telling stories about economists, especially about Ramsey, to his graduate students.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities

This paper uses a new panel of more than 2,000 Brazilian municipalities over 13 years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors` reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed-effects model. The results suggest that mayors who spend more during their terms of office increase the probability of their own reelection or of a successor of the same political party. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.