Locally Efficient Estimation with Current Status Data and High Dimensional Covariates

In biostatistical applications, interest often focuses on the estimation of the distribution of time T between two consecutive events. If the initial event time is observed and the subsequent event time is only known to be larger or smaller than an observed monitoring time, then the data is described by the well known singly-censored current status model, also known as interval censored data, case I. We extend this current status model by allowing the presence of a time-dependent process, which is partly observed and allowing C to depend on T through the observed part of this time-dependent process. Because of the high dimension of the covariate process, no globally efficient estimators exist with a good practical performance at moderate sample sizes. We follow the approach of Robins and Rotnitzky (1992) by modeling the censoring variable, given the time-variable and the covariate-process, i.e., the missingness process, under the restriction that it satisfied coarsening at random. We propose a generalization of the simple current status estimator of the distribution of T and of smooth functionals of the distribution of T, which is based on an estimate of the missingness. In this estimator the covariates enter only through the estimate of the missingness process. Due to the coarsening at random assumption, the estimator has the interesting property that if we estimate the missingness process more nonparametrically, then we improve its efficiency. We show that by local estimation of an optimal model or optimal function of the covariates for the missingness process, the generalized current status estimator for smooth functionals become locally efficient; meaning it is efficient if the right model or covariate is consistently estimated and it is consistent and asymptotically normal in general. Estimation of the optimal model requires estimation of the conditional distribution of T, given the covariates. Any (prior) knowledge of this conditional distribution can be used at this stage without any risk of losing root-n consistency. We also propose locally efficient one step estimators. Finally, we show some simulation results.

Locally Efficient Estimation in Censored Data Models: Theory and Examples

In many applications the observed data can be viewed as a censored high dimensional full data random variable X. By the curve of dimensionality it is typically not possible to construct estimators that are asymptotically efficient at every probability distribution in a semiparametric censored data model of such a high dimensional censored data structure. We provide a general method for construction of one-step estimators that are efficient at a chosen submodel of the full-data model, are still well behaved off this submodel and can be chosen to always improve on a given initial estimator. These one-step estimators rely on good estimators of the censoring mechanism and thus will require a parametric or semiparametric model for the censoring mechanism. We present a general theorem that provides a template for proving the desired asymptotic results. We illustrate the general one-step estimation methods by constructing locally efficient one-step estimators of marginal distributions and regression parameters with right-censored data, current status data and bivariate right-censored data, in all models allowing the presence of time-dependent covariates. The conditions of the asymptotics theorem are rigorously verified in one of the examples and the key condition of the general theorem is verified for all examples.

EVALUATING THE INSTALLATION AND PERFORMANCE OF MANUALLY DRILLED WELLS IN NORTH-EASTERN MADAGASCAR

Manual drilling is a popular solution for programs seeking to increase drinking water supply in rural Madagascar. Lightweight, affordable and locally produced drilling equipment allows rapid implementation where access is problematic and funds are limited. This report will look at the practical implications of using manual drilling as a one-step solution to potable water in rural development. The main benefits of using these techniques are time and cost savings. The author uses his experience managing a drilling campaign in northeastern Madagascar to explore the benefits and limitations of one particular drilling methodology – BushProof’s Madrill technique. Just under 200 wells were drilled using this method in the course of one fiscal year (September 2011-September 2012). The paper explores what compromises must be considered in the quest for cost-effective boreholes and whether everybody - from the implementers to project managers to clients and lawmakers - are in agreement about the consequences of such compromises. The paper also discusses water quality issues encountered when drilling in shallow aquifers.

ASTAXANTHIN PRODUCTION FROM HAEMATOCOCCUS PLUVIALIS UNDER VARIOUS LIGHT INTENSITIES AND CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS

The microalga Haematococcus pluvialis was cultivated in MES-volvox medium at various light intensities and CO2 concentrations. It was found that CO2 concentrations of 10 and 15%, in combination with high irradiance at initial pH =6.7, accelerate astaxanthin accumulation in H. pluvialis cells but obstruct cell growth. The purpose of this research study was to devise a one-stage process consisting of the simultaneous cultivation of H. pluvialis and astaxanthin production using high light intensity and high CO2 concentration. This could be achieved at 200 µE/m2s and 15% CO2 in growth medium at initial pH = 4.3. Compared to the traditional two-stage H. pluvialis cultivation system, this one-step process can save up to 8-9 days of astaxanthin production time. The astaxanthin content in H. pluvialis cells induced with high light intensity only or with a combination of high light intensity and high CO2 concentration had comparable astaxanthin content; 94 and 97 mg/g dry biomass, respectively. However, it was extremely low in nitrate-free medium at high irradiance alone or combined with high CO2 concentration, with an average value of 4 mg/g dry biomass. Cell density was 40% less in cultures under discontinuous illumination compared to continuous illumination. This process could serve as a microalgal CO2 mitigation system after further understanding of the CO2 fixation ability of H. pluvialis has been gained.

MODULARITY BASED FUZZY COMMUNITY DETECTION IN SOCIAL NETWORKS

Fuzzy community detection is to identify fuzzy communities in a network, which are groups of vertices in the network such that the membership of a vertex in one community is in [0,1] and that the sum of memberships of vertices in all communities equals to 1. Fuzzy communities are pervasive in social networks, but only a few works have been done for fuzzy community detection. Recently, a one-step forward extension of Newman’s Modularity, the most popular quality function for disjoint community detection, results into the Generalized Modularity (GM) that demonstrates good performance in finding well-known fuzzy communities. Thus, GMis chosen as the quality function in our research. We first propose a generalized fuzzy t-norm modularity to investigate the effect of different fuzzy intersection operators on fuzzy community detection, since the introduction of a fuzzy intersection operation is made feasible by GM. The experimental results show that the Yager operator with a proper parameter value performs better than the product operator in revealing community structure. Then, we focus on how to find optimal fuzzy communities in a network by directly maximizing GM, which we call it Fuzzy Modularity Maximization (FMM) problem. The effort on FMM problem results into the major contribution of this thesis, an efficient and effective GM-based fuzzy community detection method that could automatically discover a fuzzy partition of a network when it is appropriate, which is much better than fuzzy partitions found by existing fuzzy community detection methods, and a crisp partition of a network when appropriate, which is competitive with partitions resulted from the best disjoint community detections up to now. We address FMM problem by iteratively solving a sub-problem called One-Step Modularity Maximization (OSMM). We present two approaches for solving this iterative procedure: a tree-based global optimizer called Find Best Leaf Node (FBLN) and a heuristic-based local optimizer. The OSMM problem is based on a simplified quadratic knapsack problem that can be solved in linear time; thus, a solution of OSMM can be found in linear time. Since the OSMM algorithm is called within FBLN recursively and the structure of the search tree is non-deterministic, we can see that the FMM/FBLN algorithm runs in a time complexity of at least O (n2). So, we also propose several highly efficient and very effective heuristic algorithms namely FMM/H algorithms. We compared our proposed FMM/H algorithms with two state-of-the-art community detection methods, modified MULTICUT Spectral Fuzzy c-Means (MSFCM) and Genetic Algorithm with a Local Search strategy (GALS), on 10 real-world data sets. The experimental results suggest that the H2 variant of FMM/H is the best performing version. The H2 algorithm is very competitive with GALS in producing maximum modularity partitions and performs much better than MSFCM. On all the 10 data sets, H2 is also 2-3 orders of magnitude faster than GALS. Furthermore, by adopting a simply modified version of the H2 algorithm as a mutation operator, we designed a genetic algorithm for fuzzy community detection, namely GAFCD, where elite selection and early termination are applied. The crossover operator is designed to make GAFCD converge fast and to enhance GAFCD’s ability of jumping out of local minimums. Experimental results on all the data sets show that GAFCD uncovers better community structure than GALS.

DESIGN AND SYNTHESIS OF MULTIFUNCTIONAL POLYMERIC MICELLES FOR GENE-DIRECTED ENZYME PRODRUG THERAPY

Gene-directed enzyme prodrug therapy is a form of cancer therapy in which delivery of a gene that encodes an enzyme is able to convert a prodrug, a pharmacologically inactive molecule, into a potent cytotoxin. Currently delivery of gene and prodrug is a two-step process. Here, we propose a one-step method using polymer nanocarriers to deliver prodrug, gene and cytotoxic drug simultaneously to malignant cells. Prodrugs acyclovir, ganciclovir and 5-doxifluridine were used to directly to initiate ring-opening polymerization of epsilon-caprolactone, forming a hydrophobic prodrug-tagged poly(epsilon-caprolactone) which was further grafted with hydrophilic polymers (methoxy poly(ethylene glycol), chitosan or polyethylenemine) to form amphiphilic copolymers for micelle formation. Successful synthesis of copolymers and micelle formation was confirmed by standard analytical means. Conversion of prodrugs to their cytotoxic forms was analyzed by both two-step and one-step means i.e. by first delivering gene plasmid into cell line HT29 and then challenging the cells with the prodrug-tagged micelle carriers and secondly by complexing gene plasmid onto micelle nanocarriers and delivery gene and prodrug simultaneously to parental HT29 cells. Anticancer effectiveness of prodrug-tagged micelles was further enhanced by encapsulating chemotherapy drugs doxorubicin or SN-38. Viability of colon cancer cell line HT29 was significantly reduced. Furthermore, in an effort to develop a stealth and targeted carrier, CD47-streptavidin fusion protein was attached onto the micelle surface utilizing biotin-streptavidin affinity. CD47, a marker of self on the red blood cell surface, was used for its antiphagocytic efficacy, results showed that micelles bound with CD47 showed antiphagocytic efficacy when exposed to J774A.1 macrophages. Since CD47 is not only an antiphagocytic ligand but also an integrin associated protein, it was used to target integrin alpha(v)beta(3), which is overexpressed on tumor-activated neovascular endothelial cells. Results showed that CD47-tagged micelles had enhanced uptake when treated to PC3 cells which have high expression of alpha(v)beta(3). The synthesized multifunctional polymeric micelle carriers developed could offer a new platform for an innovative cancer therapy regime.

Normal human serum contains high levels of anti-Gal alpha 1-4GlcNAc antibodies

BACKGROUND: Natural xenoreactive antibodies (Abs) directed against the Bdi-epitope (Gal alpha 1-3Gal beta) on the cells of non-primate mammals take part in hyperacute rejection of xenotransplanted organs. We found that some Abs, which were one-step affinity purified on Bdi-Sepharose, cross-reacted with the disaccharide Gal alpha 1-4GlcNAc beta. The epitope Gal alpha 1-4GlcNAc has not been identified on mammals or bacterial polysaccharides yet. METHODS: To isolate the antibodies of the corresponding specificity the disaccharide was immobilized on Sepharose and antibodies were affinity purified from pooled serum of blood group O individuals. RESULTS: These one-step purified Abs cross-reacted with Bdi, but after a prior absorption step on Bdi-Sepharose no cross-reactivity with Bdi was observed any longer. Surprisingly, the quantity of anti-Gal alpha 1-4GlcNAc isolated from the same serum pool, 4-7 microg/ml, was equal to that of anti-Bdi or more. Independently of ABO blood groups all the tested healthy donors had anti-Gal alpha 1-4GlcNAc Abs at a similar level. Monospecific anti-Gal alpha 1-4GlcNAc Abs were not cytotoxic towards porcine cells. CONCLUSIONS: 1. The actual concentration of monospecific, xenoreactive Gal alpha 1-3Gal beta Abs in blood may be considerably lower than the value referred to in the literature for 'anti-alpha Gal' or 'anti-Galili' antibodies. 2. Anti-Gal alpha 1-4GlcNAc Abs seem not to be important for xenotransplantation.

Rapid estimation of cartilage T2 based on double echo at steady state (DESS) with 3 Tesla

The double-echo-steady-state (DESS) sequence generates two signal echoes that are characterized by a different contrast behavior. Based on these two contrasts, the underlying T2 can be calculated. For a flip-angle of 90 degrees , the calculated T2 becomes independent of T1, but with very low signal-to-noise ratio. In the present study, the estimation of cartilage T2, based on DESS with a reduced flip-angle, was investigated, with the goal of optimizing SNR, and simultaneously minimizing the error in T2. This approach was validated in phantoms and on volunteers. T2 estimations based on DESS at different flip-angles were compared with standard multiecho, spin-echo T2. Furthermore, DESS-T2 estimations were used in a volunteer and in an initial study on patients after cartilage repair of the knee. A flip-angle of 33 degrees was the best compromise for the combination of DESS-T2 mapping and morphological imaging. For this flip angle, the Pearson correlation was 0.993 in the phantom study (approximately 20% relative difference between SE-T2 and DESS-T2); and varied between 0.429 and 0.514 in the volunteer study. Measurements in patients showed comparable results for both techniques with regard to zonal assessment. This DESS-T2 approach represents an opportunity to combine morphological and quantitative cartilage MRI in a rapid one-step examination.

Cardiovascular proteomics: implications for clinical applications

Proteomics is fulfilling its potential and beginning to impact the diagnosis and therapy of cardiovascular disease. As de novo proteomics analysis gets more streamlined, and robust high-throughput methods are developed, more and more attention is being directed toward the field of cardiovascular serum and plasma biomarker discovery. To take cardiovascular proteomics from bench to bedside, great care must be taken to achieve reproducible results. Despite technical advances, however, the absolute number of clinical biomarkers thus far discovered by a proteomics approach is small. Although several factors contribute to this lack, one step is to build "translation teams" involving a close collaboration between researchers and clinicians.

The Value of Negotiating Cost-Based Transfer Prices

This paper analyzes the potential of one-step transfer prices based on either variable or full costs for coordinating decentralized production and quality-improving investment decisions. Transfer prices based on variable costs fail to induce investments on the upstream stage. In contrast, transfer prices based on full costs provide strong investment incentives for the upstream divisions. However, they fail to coordinate the investment decisions. We show that negotiations prevent such coordination failure. In particular, we find that the firm benefits from a higher degree of decentralization so that total profit increases in the number of parameters being subject to negotiations.

Prevalence study of Staphylococcus aureus in quarter milk samples of dairy cows in the Canton of Bern, Switzerland

In the present study, the prevalence of S. aureus in mammary gland quarters of dairy cows in Switzerland was estimated and a risk factor analysis was carried out. Dairy cows were selected by one-step-cluster sampling with stratification by herd size. Forty-seven of 50 randomly chosen farms participated in the study, resulting in 603 cows and 2388 quarter samples. Milk samples were collected in all herds on two occasions two weeks apart. In 6% of cows (95% CI: 2.7-9.3%) at least one milk sample was positive for S. aureus and from 2% (0.8-3.2%) of all quarters, S. aureus was cultured at least once. In four quarters a latent S. aureus infection (agent detected and somatic cell count (SCC) <100,000cell/ml) was diagnosed. Multivariable hierarchic logistical regression analysis yielded five significant risk factors for observing S. aureus in a milk sample: high SCC, a S. aureus-positive neighbouring quarter, a palpable induration in the quarter, and a wound, scar tissue or crush injury affecting the teat. The type of housing (P=0.1596) was also a factor that remained in the model. The mentioned risk factors must be considered during the evaluation of herds with S. aureus problems. The occurrence of latent S. aureus infections emphasises that not only quarters with a high SCC but all quarters of all cows must be cultured for control measures to be effective.

Das Thema „Energie“ in der wissenschaftlichen Zukunftsforschung

Der Umbau der durch den Einsatz fossiler Energieträger dominierten Energiesysteme steht weit oben auf der politischen Agenda. Angesichts des fortschreitenden Klimawandels, der Ressourcenverknappung und des ökonomischen Aufholens der Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer wird diese Frage immer dringlicher. Zahlreiche politische, gesellschaftliche, ökonomische und ökologische Herausforderungen sind mit diesem Umbau verbunden. Angesichts der Langlebigkeit der heute gebauten Infrastrukturen ergibt sich hieraus ein zentrales Feld für die wissenschaftliche Zukunftsforschung. Der Einsatz von Energieszenarios ist über Jahre erprobt und trotz zahlreicher methodischer und inhaltlicher Unsicherheiten bei der Erarbeitung der Szenariostudien bleiben sie unersetzlich – sofern sie wissenschaftliche Standards hinsichtlich der Wertneutralität und Überprüfbarkeit erfüllen. Auch in der geographischen Forschung findet sich das Thema „Energie“ wieder verstärkt auf der Agenda. Bereits vor dem Hintergrund der Ölpreiskrisen in den 1970er-Jahren setzten sich Geographinnen und Geographen mit Energiethemen auseinander – angesichts des anstehenden Umbaus der Energiesysteme wird auch wieder die Frage aktuell, inwiefern sich die Transformation des Energiesystems und die Raumstruktur gegenseitig beeinflussen. Dabei werden nicht nur inhaltliche Fragen aufgeworfen, vielmehr ist auch zu klären, wie sich das Thema „Energie“ in die etablierten geographischen Forschungsdisziplinen von der Klimageographie über die Wirtschafts- und Bevölkerungsgeographie bis hin zur Siedlungsgeographie eingliedern lässt. Die Ausführungen im vorliegenden Artikel gehen noch einen Schritt weiter und werfen die Frage auf, inwiefern sich durch die Verbindung geographischer Forschung und Energiethemen auch ein neues methodisches Experimentierfeld auftut. Konkret wird aufgezeigt, dass die Geographie verstärkt den Blick in die Zukunft wagen und sich von der Analyse rezenter Strukturen lösen sollte. Die Frage der zukünftigen Raumstrukturen angesichts des Umbaus der Energiesysteme ist von zentraler Bedeutung, unter Anwendung von Methoden der wissenschaftlichen Zukunftsforschung muss die Geographie hier antworten liefern.

Flame Synthesis of Complex Fluoride-Based Nanoparticles as Upconversion Phosphors

Recent improvements in precursor chemistry, reactor geometry and run conditions extend the manufacturing capability of traditional flame aerosol synthesis of oxide nanoparticles to metals, alloys and inorganic complex salts. As an example of a demanding composition, we demonstrate here the one-step flame synthesis of nanoparticles of a 4-element non-oxide phosphor for upconversion applications. The phosphors are characterized in terms of emission capability, phase purity and thermal phase evolution. The preparation of flame-made beta-NaYF4 with dopants of Yb, Tm or Yb, Er furthermore illustrates the now available nanoparticle synthesis tool boxes based on modified flamespray synthesis from our laboratories at ETH Zurich. Since scaling concepts for flame synthesis, including large-scale filtration and powder handling, have become available commercially, the development of industrial applications of complex nanoparticles of metals, alloys or most other thermally stable, inorganic compounds can now be considered a feasible alternative to traditional top-down manufacturing or liquid-intense wet chemistry.

Bonding of simplified adhesive systems to caries-affected dentin of primary teeth.

PURPOSE To evaluate the bonding of simplified adhesive systems to sound and caries-affected dentin of primary teeth with microtensile (µTBS) and nanoleakage (NL) tests. MATERIALS AND METHODS Occlusal cavities were prepared in 36 sound second primary molars. Half of the specimens were submitted to pH cycling to simulate caries-affected dentin. Teeth were randomly restored with one of three materials: the etch-and-rinse adhesive system Adper Single Bond 2 (SB), the two-step self-etching adhesive system Adper SE Plus (SE), and the one-step self-etching adhesive system Adper Easy One (EASY). After storage for 24 h, specimens with cross-sectional areas of 0.8 mm2 were prepared for microtensile testing (1 mm/min). One stick from each tooth was immersed in silver nitrate solution (24 h) and allowed to develop for 8 h in order to score the nano leakage with SEM. The fracture pattern was evaluated using a stereomicroscope (400X). The µTBS means were analyzed by two-way ANOVA and Tukey's post-hoc test. For NL, the Kruskal- Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests were used (α < 0.05). RESULTS SB (35.5 ± 3.5) showed the highest µTBS value to sound dentin, followed by EASY (26.3 ± 1.9) and SE (18.2 ± 6.5) (p < 0.05). No difference among materials was observed for caries-affected dentin (SB: 17.8 ± 4.2; SE: 13.9 ± 3.2; EASY: 14.4 ± 4.2, p > 0.05). For all groups, adhesive/mixed fracture prevailed. Caries affected dentin promoted silver nitrate uptake into the adhesive interface; however, with SE, the nano leakage was more pronounced than in the other adhesive systems, even in sound dentin. CONCLUSION Caries-affected dentin negatively influences the bond strength and nano leakage of the two-step etch-and-rinse and one-step self-etching adhesive systems tested in primary teeth.

Origins and evolution of VNTR loci: The apolipoprotein B 3$\sp\prime$ VNTR

I studied the apolipoprotein (apo) B 3$\sp\prime$ variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) and did computer simulations of the stepwise mutation model to address four questions: (1) How did the apo B VNTR originate? (2) What is the mutational mechanism of repeat number change at the apo B VNTR? (3) To what extent are population and molecular level events responsible for the determination of the contemporary apo B allele frequency distribution? (4) Can VNTR allele frequency distributions be explained by a simple and conservative mutation-drift model? I used three general approaches to address these questions: (1) I characterized the apo B VNTR region in non-human primate species; (2) I constructed haplotypes of polymorphic markers flanking the apo B VNTR in a sample of individuals from Lorrain, France and studied the associations between the flanking-marker haplotypes and apo B VNTR size; (3) I did computer simulations of the one-step stepwise mutation model and compared the results to real data in terms of four allele frequency distribution characteristics.^ The results of this work have allowed me to conclude that the apo B VNTR originated after an initial duplication of a sequence which is still present as a single copy sequence in New World monkey species. I conclude that this locus did not originate by the transposition of an array of repeats from somewhere else in the genome. It is unlikely that recombination is the primary mutational mechanism. Furthermore, the clustered nature of these associations implicates a stepwise mutational mechanism. From the high frequencies of certain haplotype-allele size combinations, it is evident that population level events have also been important in the determination of the apo B VNTR allele frequency distribution. Results from computer simulations of the one-step stepwise mutation model have allowed me to conclude that bimodal and multimodal allele frequency distributions are not unexpected at loci evolving via stepwise mutation mechanisms. Short tandem repeat loci fit the stepwise mutation model best, followed by microsatellite loci. I therefore conclude that there are differences in the mutational mechanisms of VNTR loci as classed by repeat unit size. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^