Adapting micro-economy of energy corporations to macroeconomy policies aiming at a sustainable economy

Esta Tesis surgió ante la intensidad y verosimilitud de varias señales o “warnings” asociadas a políticas dirigidas a reducir el peso del petróleo en el sector energético, tanto por razones económicas, como geopolíticas, como ambientales. Como tal Tesis se consolidó al ir incorporando elementos novedosos pero esenciales en el mundo petrolífero, particularmente las “tecnologías habilitantes”, tanto de incidencia directa, como el “fracking” como indirecta, del cual es un gran ejemplo el Vehículo Eléctrico (puro). La Tesis se definió y estructuró para elaborar una serie de indagaciones y disquisiciones, que comportaran un conjunto de conclusiones que fueran útiles para las corporaciones energéticas. También para la comprensión de la propia evolución del sector y de sus prestaciones técnicas y económicas, de cara a dar el servicio que los usuarios finales piden. Dentro de las tareas analíticas y reflexivas de la Tesis, se acuñaron ciertos términos conceptuales para explicar más certeramente la realidad del sector, y tal es el caso del “Investment burden”, que pondera la inversión específica (€/W) requerida por una instalación, con la duración del período de construcción y los riesgos tanto tangibles como regulatorios. Junto a ello la Tesis propone una herramienta de estudio y prognosis, denominada “Market integrated energy efficiency”, especialmente aplicable a dicotomías. Tal es el caso del coche térmico, versus coche eléctrico. El objetivo es optimizar una determinada actividad energética, o la productividad total del sector. Esta Tesis propone varias innovaciones, que se pueden agrupar en dos niveles: el primero dentro del campo de la Energía, y el segundo dentro del campo de las corporaciones, y de manera especial de las corporaciones del sector hidrocarburos. A nivel corporativo, la adaptación a la nueva realidad será función directa de la capacidad de cada corporación para desarrollar y/o comprar las tecnologías que permitan mantener o aumentar cuota de mercado. Las conclusiones de la Tesis apuntan a tres opciones principalmente para un replanteamiento corporativo: - Diversificación energética - Desplazamiento geográfico - Beneficiándose de posibles nuevos nichos tecnológicos, como son: • En upstream: Recuperación estimulada de petróleo mediante uso de energías renovables • En downstream: Aditivos orientados a reducir emisiones • En gestión del cambio: Almacenamiento energético con fines operativos Algunas políticas energéticas siguen la tendencia de crecimiento cero de algunos países de la OCDE. No obstante, la realidad mundial es muy diferente a la de esos países. Por ejemplo, según diversas estimaciones (basadas en bancos de datos solventes, referenciados en la Tesis) el número de vehículos aumentará desde aproximadamente mil millones en la actualidad hasta el doble en 2035; mientras que la producción de petróleo sólo aumentará de 95 a 145 millones de barriles al día. Un aumento del 50% frente a un aumento del 100%. Esto generará un curioso desajuste, que se empezará a sentir en unos pocos años. Las empresas y corporaciones del sector hidrocarburos pueden perder el monopolio que atesoran actualmente en el sector transporte frente a todas las demás fuentes energéticas. Esa pérdida puede quedar compensada por una mejor gestión de todas sus capacidades y una participación más integrada en el mundo de la energía, buscando sinergias donde hasta ahora no había sino distanciamiento. Los productos petrolíferos pueden alimentar cualquier tipo de maquina térmica, como las turbinas Brayton, o alimentar reformadores para la producción masiva de H2 para su posterior uso en pilas combustible. El almacenamiento de productos derivados del petróleo no es ningún reto ni plantea problema alguno; y sin embargo este almacenamiento es la llave para resolver muchos problemas. Es posible que el comercio de petróleo se haga menos volátil debido a los efectos asociados al almacenamiento; pero lo que es seguro es que la eficiencia energética de los usos de ese petróleo será más elevada. La Tesis partía de ciertas amenazas sobre el futuro del petróleo, pero tras el análisis realizado se puede vislumbrar un futuro prometedor en la fusión de políticas medioambientales coercitivas y las nuevas tecnologías emergentes del actual portafolio de oportunidades técnicas. ABSTRACT This Thesis rises from the force and the credibility of a number of warning signs linked to policies aimed at reducing the role of petroleum in the energy industry due to economical, geopolitical and environmental drives. As such Thesis, it grew up based on aggregating new but essentials elements into the petroleum sector. This is the case of “enabling technologies” that have a direct impact on the petroleum industry (such as fracking), or an indirect but deep impact (such as the full electrical vehicle). The Thesis was defined and structured in such a way that could convey useful conclusions for energy corporations through a series of inquiries and treatises. In addition to this, the Thesis also aims at understating la evolution of the energy industry and its capabilities both technical and economical, towards delivering the services required by end users. Within the analytical task performed in the Thesis, new terms were coined. They depict concepts that aid at explaining the facts of the energy industry. This is the case for “Investment burden”, it weights the specific capital investment (€/W) required to build a facility with the time that takes to build it, as well as other tangible risks as those posed by regulation. In addition to this, the Thesis puts forward an application designed for reviewing and predicting: the so called “Market integrated energy efficiency”, especially well-suited for dichotomies, very appealing for the case of the thermal car versus the electric car. The aim is to optimize energy related activity; or even the overall productivity of the system. The innovations proposed in this Thesis can be classified in two tiers. Tier one, within the energy sector; and tier two, related to Energy Corporation in general, but with oil and gas corporations at heart. From a corporate level, the adaptation to new energy era will be linked with the corporation capability to develop or acquire those technologies that will yield to retaining or enhancing market share. The Thesis highlights three options for corporate evolution: - diversification within Energy - geographic displacement - profiting new technologies relevant to important niches of work for the future, as: o Upstream: enhanced oil recovery using renewable energy sources (for upstream companies in the petroleum business) o Downstream: additives for reducing combustion emissions o Management of Change: operational energy storage Some energy policies tend to follow the zero-growth of some OECD countries, but the real thing could be very different. For instance, and according to estimates the number of vehicles in use will grow from 1 billion to more than double this figure 2035; but oil production will only grow from 95 million barrel/day to 145 (a 50% rise of versus an intensification of over a 100%). Hydrocarbon Corporation can lose the monopoly they currently hold over the supply of energy to transportation. This lose can be mitigated through an enhanced used of their capabilities and a higher degree of integration in the world of energy, exploring for synergies in those places were gaps were present. Petroleum products can be used to feed any type of thermal machine, as Brayton turbines, or steam reformers to produce H2 to be exploited in fuel cells. Storing petroleum products does not present any problem, but very many problems can be solved with them. Petroleum trading will likely be less volatile because of the smoothing effects of distributed storage, and indeed the efficiency in petroleum consumption will be much higher. The Thesis kicked off with a menace on the future of petroleum. However, at the end of the analysis, a bright future can be foreseen in the merging between highly demanding environmental policies and the relevant technologies of the currently emerging technical portfolio.

Providing Older Adults With Real-time Passenger Information via SMS

Peer reviewed

Circadian clock-controlled genes isolated from Neurospora crassa are late night- to early morning-specific

An endogenous circadian biological clock controls the temporal aspects of life in most organisms, including rhythmic control of genes involved in clock output pathways. In the fungus Neurospora crassa, one pathway known to be under control of the clock is asexual spore (conidia) development. To understand more fully the processes that are regulated by the N. crassa circadian clock, systematic screens were carried out for genes that oscillate at the transcriptional level. Time-of-day-specific cDNA libraries were generated and used in differential screens to identify six new clock-controlled genes (ccgs). Transcripts specific for each of the ccgs preferentially accumulate during the late night to early morning, although they vary with respect to steady-state mRNA levels and amplitude of the rhythm. Sequencing of the ends of the new ccg cDNAs revealed that ccg-12 is identical to N. crassa cmt encoding copper metallothionein, providing the suggestion that not all clock-regulated genes in N. crassa are specifically involved in the development of conidia. This was supported by finding that half of the new ccgs, including cmt(ccg-12), are not transcriptionally induced by developmental or light signals. These data suggest a major role for the clock in the regulation of biological processes distinct from development.

Explaining transactions in time banks in economic crisis

This article studies the services exchanged in a particular Spanish time bank. Using data from users and transactions, we analyse the users’ profile as well as the determinants of providing and receiving different services. Our results show that the representative user is a Spanish female, not married, middle aged, highly educated and unemployed. We also find differences in the personal characteristics driving the supply and demand of services.

Estimation of Key Dates and Stages in Rice Crops Using Dual-Polarization SAR Time Series and a Particle Filtering Approach

Information of crop phenology is essential for evaluating crop productivity. In a previous work, we determined phenological stages with remote sensing data using a dynamic system framework and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach. In this paper, we demonstrate that the particle filter is a more reliable method to infer any phenological stage compared to the EKF. The improvements achieved with this approach are discussed. In addition, this methodology enables the estimation of key cultivation dates, thus providing a practical product for many applications. The dates of some important stages, as the sowing date and the day when the crop reaches the panicle initiation stage, have been chosen to show the potential of this technique.

Estimation of Time-Limited Channel Spectra From Nonuniform Samples

This paper deals with the estimation of a time-invariant channel spectrum from its own nonuniform samples, assuming there is a bound on the channel’s delay spread. Except for this last assumption, this is the basic estimation problem in systems providing channel spectral samples. However, as shown in the paper, the delay spread bound leads us to view the spectrum as a band-limited signal, rather than the Fourier transform of a tapped delay line (TDL). Using this alternative model, a linear estimator is presented that approximately minimizes the expected root-mean-square (RMS) error for a deterministic channel. Its main advantage over the TDL is that it takes into account the spectrum’s smoothness (time width), thus providing a performance improvement. The proposed estimator is compared numerically with the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator based on a TDL model in pilot-assisted channel estimation (PACE) for OFDM.

Evaluation of the potential of InSAR time series to study the spatio-temporal evolution of piezometric levels in the Madrid aquifer

The Tertiary detritic aquifer of Madrid (TDAM), with an average thickness of 1500 m and a heterogeneous, anisotropic structure, supplies water to Madrid, the most populated city of Spain (3.2 million inhabitants in the metropolitan area). Besides its complex structure, a previous work focused in the north-northwest of Madrid city showed that the aquifer behaves quasi elastically trough extraction/recovery cycles and ground uplifting during recovery periods compensates most of the ground subsidence measured during previous extraction periods (Ezquerro et al., 2014). Therefore, the relationship between ground deformation and groundwater level through time can be simulated using simple elastic models. In this work, we model the temporal evolution of the piezometric level in 19 wells of the TDAM in the period 1997–2010. Using InSAR and piezometric time series spanning the studied period, we first estimate the elastic storage coefficient (Ske) for every well. Both, the Ske of each well and the average Ske of all wells, are used to predict hydraulic heads at the different well locations during the study period and compared against the measured hydraulic heads, leading to very similar errors when using the Ske of each well and the average Ske of all wells: 14 and 16 % on average respectively. This result suggests that an average Ske can be used to estimate piezometric level variations in all the points where ground deformation has been measured by InSAR, thus allowing production of piezometric level maps for the different extraction/recovery cycles in the TDAM.

Long time remodeling during retinal degeneration evaluated by optical coherence tomography, immunocytochemistry and fundus autofluorescence

Purpose: To characterize the relationship between fundus autofluorescence (FAF), Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) and immunohistochemistry (IHC) over the course of chronic retinal degeneration in the P23H rat. Methods: Homozygous albino P23H rats, Sprague–Dawley (SD) rats as controls and pigmented Long Evans (LE) rats were used. A Spectralis HRA OCT system was used for scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (SLO) imaging OCT and angiography. To determine FAF, fluorescence was excited using diode laser at 488 nm. A fast retina map OCT was performed using the optic nerve as a landmark. IHC was performed to correlate with the findings of OCT and FAF changes. Results: During the course of retinal degeneration, the FAF pattern evolved from some spotting at 2 months old to a mosaic of hyperfluorescent dots in rats 6 months and older. Retinal thicknesses progressively diminished over the course of the disease. At later stages of degeneration, OCT documented changes in the retinal layers, however, IHC better identified the cell loss and remodeling changes. Angiography revealed attenuation of the retinal vascular plexus with time. Conclusion: We provide for the first time a detailed long-term analysis of the course of retinal degeneration in P23H rats using a combination of SLO and OCT imaging, angiography, FAF and IHC. Although, the application of noninvasive methods enables longitudinal studies and will decrease the number of animals needed for a study, IHC is still an essential tool to identify retinal changes at the cellular level.

Dynamical Approach for Real-Time Monitoring of Agricultural Crops

In this paper, a novel approach for exploiting multitemporal remote sensing data focused on real-time monitoring of agricultural crops is presented. The methodology is defined in a dynamical system context using state-space techniques, which enables the possibility of merging past temporal information with an update for each new acquisition. The dynamic system context allows us to exploit classical tools in this domain to perform the estimation of relevant variables. A general methodology is proposed, and a particular instance is defined in this study based on polarimetric radar data to track the phenological stages of a set of crops. A model generation from empirical data through principal component analysis is presented, and an extended Kalman filter is adapted to perform phenological stage estimation. Results employing quad-pol Radarsat-2 data over three different cereals are analyzed. The potential of this methodology to retrieve vegetation variables in real time is shown.

Contribution to Real-Time Estimation of Crop Phenological States in a Dynamical Framework Based on NDVI Time Series: Data Fusion With SAR and Temperature

In this study, a methodology based in a dynamical framework is proposed to incorporate additional sources of information to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series of agricultural observations for a phenological state estimation application. The proposed implementation is based on the particle filter (PF) scheme that is able to integrate multiple sources of data. Moreover, the dynamics-led design is able to conduct real-time (online) estimations, i.e., without requiring to wait until the end of the campaign. The evaluation of the algorithm is performed by estimating the phenological states over a set of rice fields in Seville (SW, Spain). A Landsat-5/7 NDVI series of images is complemented with two distinct sources of information: SAR images from the TerraSAR-X satellite and air temperature information from a ground-based station. An improvement in the overall estimation accuracy is obtained, especially when the time series of NDVI data is incomplete. Evaluations on the sensitivity to different development intervals and on the mitigation of discontinuities of the time series are also addressed in this work, demonstrating the benefits of this data fusion approach based on the dynamic systems.

Transaction Banking: Respecting its role in the real economy. ECRI Policy Brief No. 6, 6 December 2013

This paper sketches the main features and issues related to recent market developments in global transaction banking (GTB), particularly in trade finance, cash management and correspondent banking. It describes the basic functioning of the GTB, its interaction with global financial markets and related implications of global regulatory developments such as Basel III. The interest in GTB has recently increased, since its low-risk profile, tendency to follow growth rates worldwide and relative independence from other financial instruments became an interesting diversification opportunity both for banks’ business models and for investors. Transaction banking has been a resilient business during the crisis, despite the reduction in world trade figures. In the post crisis period, GTB must cope with new challenges related to increased local and global regulation and the risk of inconsistency in regulatory approaches, which could negatively impact the global network and increased competition by new market entrants. Increased sophistication of corporate clients, as well as the pressure to develop and adopt technological innovations more quickly than other areas of banking continues to impact the business. The future of the industry closely depends on its ability to adjust to complex regulatory developments while at the same time being able to operate a global and efficient network.

Yes, it’s the economy, stupid, but is it demand or supply? CEPS Commentary, 24 January 2014

Paul De Grauwe writes in this new CEPS Commentary that the recent and surprising conversion of François Hollande to supply-side economics completes the victory of the northern European policy-makers who believe that insufficient aggregate demand should be fought exclusively by supply-side measures. In his view, however, it is not the first time in post-war history that economists and policy-makers apply the wrong medicine; or to put it differently, it's akin to some generals who fight a new war by applying the strategies developed for the previous war.

An economy with unrealistic indicators: an evaluation of the economic situation in Belarus and a forecast for 2013. OSW Commentary No. 103, 2013-02-20

The macroeconomic results achieved by Belarus in 2012 laid bare the weakness and the inefficiency of its economy. Belarus’s GDP and positive trade balance were growing in the first half of last year. However, this trend was reversed when Russia blocked the scheme of extremely lucrative manipulations in the re-export of Russian petroleum products by Belarus and when the demand for potassium fertilisers fell on the global market. It became clear once again that the outdated Belarusian model of a centrally planned economy is unable to generate sustainable growth, and the Belarusian economy needs thorough structural reforms. Nevertheless, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka consistently continues to block any changes in the system and at the same time expects that the economic indicators this year will reach levels far beyond the possibilities of the Belarusian economy. Therefore, there is a risk that the Belarusian government may employ – as they used to do – instruments aimed at artificially stimulating domestic demand, including money creation. This may upset the relative stability of state finances, which the regime managed to achieve last year. The worst case scenario would see a repeat of what happened in 2011, when a serious financial crisis occurred, forcing Minsk to make concessions (including selling the national network of gas pipelines) to Moscow, its only real source of loans. It thus cannot be ruled out that also this time the only way to recover from the slump will be to receive additional loan support and energy subsidies from Russia at the expense of selling further strategic companies to Russian investors.

Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule; The Russian power industry shortly before reforms; Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchical system. OSW Study 5/2002

Big business in Russia: The pace of ownership transfer in the Russian economy has speeded up considerably over the last year. There has been a significant rise in the number of acquisitions of whole enterprises, and large blocks of shares in individual firms and plants. Similarly the number of mergers, bankruptcies and take-overs of failing firms by their strongest competitors has grown. The Russian power industry: This study is an overview of the current condition and principles on which the Russian power sector has been functioning so far. This analysis has been carried out against the background of the changes that have been taking place in the sector since the beginning of the 1990s. This text also contains a description of guidelines and progress made so far in implementing the reform of the Russian power industry, the draft of which was adopted by the government of the Russian Federation in summer 2001. However, the purpose of this study is not an economic analysis of the draft, but an attempt to present the political conditions and possible consequences of the transformations carried out in the Russian power sector. The final part attempts to evaluate the possibilities and threats related to the implementation of the reform in its present shape. Ukrainian metallurgy: The metallurgic sector, like the east-west transit of energy raw materials, is a strategic source of revenue for Ukraine. Over the last ten years, this sector has become Kiev's most important source of foreign currency inflows, accounting for over 40 per cent of its total export revenues. The growth of metallurgic production, which has continued almost without interruption since the mid-1990s, has contributed considerably to the increase in GDP which Ukraine showed in 2000, for the first time in its independent history.

Ukrainian economy on the verge of recession. OSW Commentary No. 96, 2012-11-21

In the third quarter of 2012, Ukraine’s economy recorded negative growth (-1.3%) for the first time since its 2009 economic crisis. Q4 GDP is projected to suffer a further decline, bringing Ukraine into formal recession. In addition to the worsening macroeconomic indicators, Ukraine is also facing a series of concomitant economic problems: a growing trade deficit, industrial decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, and the weakening of the hryvnia. Poor economic growth is expected to result in lower than projected budget revenues, which in turn could lead to the sequestration of the budget in December. The decline evident across the key economic indicators in the second half of 2012 brings to a close a period of relative economic stability and two years of economic growth, which had been seen as a significant personal achievement of President Viktor Yanukovych and the ruling Party of Regions. The health of the Ukrainian economy largely depends on the state of the country’s export- -oriented industries. The current economic forecasts for foreign markets are not very optimistic. It is impossible to determine whether the current economic downturn is likely to be merely temporary or whether it heralds the onset of a prolonged economic crisis. The limited capacity to deal with the growing economic problems may mean that Kiev will need to seek financial support from abroad. This is particularly significant with regard to external debt servicing, since in 2013 Ukraine will need to pay back around 9 billion USD, including over 5.5 billion USD to the International Monetary Fund. In order to overcome the recession and stabilise public finances, the government may be forced to take a series of unpopular measures, including raising the price of natural gas and utilities. These measures have been stipulated by the IMF as a condition of further financial assistance and the disbursement of the 12 billion USD stabilisation loan granted to Ukraine in July 2010. The only alternative for Western loans and economic reforms appears to be financial support from Russia. The price for Moscow’s help might however turn out to be very high, and precipitate a turn in Kiev’s foreign policy towards a gradual re-integration of former Soviet republics under Moscow-led geopolitical projects.