Análise de sensibilidade e calibração do modelo SWAT aplicado em bacia hidrográfica da região sudeste do Brasil

Estimativas da perda de água e solo por erosão têm sido realizadas ao redor do mundo, com base na utilização de modelos empíricos ou conceituais, como o SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). O SWAT, amplamente utilizado para predizer o impacto das alterações no uso e no manejo do solo, entre outros, sobre a perda de solo e a vazão de curso de água, é extremamente sensível à qualidade dos dados de entrada. Assim, antes da simulação é necessário que se realize uma análise de sensibilidade de tal forma que se possa dar ênfase maior à aquisição e refinamento de determinados dados, diminuir as incertezas e aumentar a confiança nos resultados gerados. O processo de calibração, embora demorado, deve ser sempre realizado a fim de garantir que os resultados da simulação sejam comparáveis aos dados obtidos em campo. O sucesso da aplicação do modelo nessa bacia, sem estudos desse tipo, possibilita que os resultados sejam extrapolados para bacias de características semelhantes. Neste trabalho, a partir dos resultados produzidos em 10 parcelas experimentais instaladas na bacia hidrográfica do ribeirão São Bartolomeu, região Sudeste do Brasil, foram realizadas a análise de sensibilidade e a calibração do modelo SWAT. Os resultados foram satisfatórios, de acordo com o coeficiente de eficiência de Nash e Sutcliffe (COE), utilizado para avaliação do desempenho do modelo, sendo obtidos os valores de COE de 0,808 para a produção de sedimentos e 0,997 para a vazão, os quais representam modelos bem calibrados. A análise de sensibilidade não foi influenciada pela maior ou menor discretização da bacia, o que facilitou o processo de análise. A sensibilidade dos parâmetros foi variável em cada sub-bacia, de acordo com seu uso e ocupação, não podendo ser generalizada, isto é, as características das sub-bacias exercem influência na sensibilidade dos parâmetros.

Análise de sensibilidade dos parâmetros do modelo SWAT e simulação dos processos hidrossedimentológicos em uma bacia no agreste nordestino

O processo erosivo constitui-se na principal causa de degradação dos solos e é acelerado por intervenções humanas nas bacias hidrográficas, resultando em prejuízos ao setor agrícola e ao meio ambiente. Para a previsão dos impactos de ações antrópicas ou de mudanças climáticas sobre os processos hidrossedimentológicos, os modelos distribuídos e de base física têm sido bastante eficazes. Neste estudo, aplicou-se o modelo SWAT à sub-bacia do Rio Japaratuba Mirim, em Sergipe, nas seções de medição das estações Fazenda Pão de Açúcar (PA) e Fazenda Cajueiro (CJ), com áreas de contribuição respectivamente de 137,3 e 277,8 km², visando à parametrização das duas bacias aninhadas por meio dos processos de calibração e de validação. Foram realizadas simulações do escoamento na bacia menor (PA), a partir dos parâmetros calibrados na bacia maior (CJ), e, reciprocamente, do escoamento na bacia maior (CJ). Em seguida, foram também realizadas simulações do escoamento e da produção de sedimentos para o período de dados de vazão disponíveis (1985 a 2000), para a seção CJ. Os resultados evidenciaram que o modelo calibrado simulou bem o escoamento superficial e conseguiu prever, de forma coerente, a produção de sedimentos com base nos 12 parâmetros mais sensíveis do modelo. A transposição dos parâmetros da bacia maior para a menor e, vice-versa, resultou em índices de Eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) e de Tendência Percentual (PBIAS), considerados satisfatórios para o primeiro caso e insatisfatório para o segundo.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies variants associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease that have distinct effects on metabolic traits.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) clusters in families, but the only known common genetic variants influencing risk are near PNPLA3. We sought to identify additional genetic variants influencing NAFLD using genome-wide association (GWA) analysis of computed tomography (CT) measured hepatic steatosis, a non-invasive measure of NAFLD, in large population based samples. Using variance components methods, we show that CT hepatic steatosis is heritable (∼26%-27%) in family-based Amish, Family Heart, and Framingham Heart Studies (n = 880 to 3,070). By carrying out a fixed-effects meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) results between CT hepatic steatosis and ∼2.4 million imputed or genotyped SNPs in 7,176 individuals from the Old Order Amish, Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik study (AGES), Family Heart, and Framingham Heart Studies, we identify variants associated at genome-wide significant levels (p<5×10(-8)) in or near PNPLA3, NCAN, and PPP1R3B. We genotype these and 42 other top CT hepatic steatosis-associated SNPs in 592 subjects with biopsy-proven NAFLD from the NASH Clinical Research Network (NASH CRN). In comparisons with 1,405 healthy controls from the Myocardial Genetics Consortium (MIGen), we observe significant associations with histologic NAFLD at variants in or near NCAN, GCKR, LYPLAL1, and PNPLA3, but not PPP1R3B. Variants at these five loci exhibit distinct patterns of association with serum lipids, as well as glycemic and anthropometric traits. We identify common genetic variants influencing CT-assessed steatosis and risk of NAFLD. Hepatic steatosis associated variants are not uniformly associated with NASH/fibrosis or result in abnormalities in serum lipids or glycemic and anthropometric traits, suggesting genetic heterogeneity in the pathways influencing these traits.

Impacts of deforestation on water balance components of a watershed on the Brazilian East Coast

The Brazilian East coast was intensely affected by deforestation, which drastically cut back the original biome. The possible impacts of this process on water resources are still unknown. The purpose of this study was an evaluation of the impacts of deforestation on the main water balance components of the Galo creek watershed, in the State of Espírito Santo, on the East coast of Brazil. Considering the real conditions of the watershed, the SWAT model was calibrated with data from 1997 to 2000 and validated for the period between 2001 and 2003. The calibration and validation processes were evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and by the statistical parameters (determination coefficient, slope coefficient and F test) of the regression model adjusted for estimated and measured flow data. After calibration and validation of the model, new simulations were carried out for three different land use scenarios: a scenario in compliance with the law (C1), assuming the preservation of PPAs (permanent preservation areas); an optimistic scenario (C2), which considers the watershed to be almost entirely covered by native vegetation; and a pessimistic scenario (C3), in which the watershed would be almost entirely covered by pasture. The scenarios C1, C2 and C3 represent a soil cover of native forest of 76, 97 and 0 %, respectively. The results were compared with the simulation, considering the real scenario (C0) with 54 % forest cover. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.65 and 0.70 for calibration and validation, respectively, indicating satisfactory results in the flow simulation. A mean reduction of 10 % of the native forest cover would cause a mean annual increase of approximately 11.5 mm in total runoff at the watershed outlet. Reforestation would ensure minimum flows in the dry period and regulate the maximum flow of the main watercourse of the watershed.

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world.This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007.For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisisThis book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America.The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress.Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market.The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Regular population monotonic allocation schemes and the core

A subclass of games with population monotonic allocation schemes is studied, namelygames with regular population monotonic allocation schemes (rpmas). We focus on theproperties of these games and we prove the coincidence between the core and both theDavis-Maschler bargaining set and the Mas-Colell bargaining set

Coalitionally monotonic set-solutions for cooperative TU games

A static comparative study on set-solutions for cooperative TU games is carried out. The analysis focuses on studying the compatibility between two classical and reasonable properties introduced by Young (1985) in the context of single valued solutions, namely core-selection and coalitional monotonicity. As the main result, it is showed that coalitional monotonicity is not only incompatible with the core-selection property but also with the bargaining-selection property. This new impossibility result reinforces the tradeoff between these kinds of interesting and intuitive economic properties. Positive results about compatibility between desirable economic properties are given replacing the core selection requirement by the core-extension property.

Union power, minimum wage legislation endogenous labor supplies and production

The objective of this work is to study the impact of the unions' bargaining power on production and wages. We present a model where a competitive final good is produced through two substitutable intermediate goods, one produced by unskilled labor and the other by skilled labor. Potential workers decide at their cost to become skilled or unskilled and, thus, labor supplies are determined endogenously. We find that the reallocation of the labor supplies due to changes in the unskilled (or skilled) unions¿ bargaining power may have a positive impact on the final goods production. At the same time, total labor earnings increase with the unskilled unions¿ bargaining power if the final goods production increases too. We also show that the minimum wage legislation has efects similar to an increase in the bargaining power of the unskilled unions.

Congrés Internacional: "De la dictadura a la democràcia : les dones en l'Europa mediterrània, central i de l'est"

El mes de setembre de 1993, el departament d'Història Contemporània de la Universitat de Barcelona i l'european Network for Women's Studies (ENWS) del Consell d'Europa van organitzar el congrés internacional "De la dictadura a la democràcia: les dones en l'Europa mediterrània central i de l'est". Lóbjectiu del congrés va ser desenvolupar una reflexió entorn de la trajectòria de les dones en les crisis dels antics règims dictatorials i en la transició democràtica.

Identitat cultural de gènere, discurs de la domesticitat i definició del treball de les dones a l'Espanya del segle XIX

Aquest article argumenta que la construcció histbrica de la feminitat va ser crucial en la conceptualització i definició del treball remunerat de les dones. En el context de la Catalunya de finals del segle dinou i comentaments del vint, examina la construcció sociocultural de gtnere i se centra en el discurs de la conceptualització del treball femení al mateix temps que 6s examinat des de la perspectiva de la diversitat de classe. A més, I'estudi analitza el desenvolupament d'una cultura del treball en el context del moviment de la classe treballadora i planteja el problema del context de la classe treballadora per generar una visió alternativa del treball remunerat de les dones que reconegui el paper de les treballadores. Demostra que, malgrat la visió radical i10 revolucionAria de la societat, les relacions de gknere en gran mesura no han estat qüestionades en els circuits de la classe treballadora. Aquest article considera el discurs de la domesticitat com a crucial en el desenvolupament de I'actitud de la classe treballadora catalana cap al treball assalariat femení i examina les implicacions que aixb va tenir en la continua discriminació i en la manca del reconeixement social del treball assalariat de les dones.

The structure of Mediterranean rocky reef ecosystems across environmental and human gradients, and conservation implications

Historical exploitation of the Mediterranean Sea and the absence of rigorous baselines makes it difficult to evaluate the current health of the marine ecosystems and the efficacy of conservation actions at the ecosystem level. Here we establish the first current baseline and gradient of ecosystem structure of nearshore rocky reefs at the Mediterranean scale. We conducted underwater surveys in 14 marine protected areas and 18 open access sites across the Mediterranean, and across a 31-fold range of fish biomass (from 3.8 to 118 g m22). Our data showed remarkable variation in the structure of rocky reef ecosystems. Multivariate analysis showed three alternative community states: (1) large fish biomass and reefs dominated by non-canopy algae, (2) lower fish biomass but abundant native algal canopies and suspension feeders, and (3) low fish biomass and extensive barrens, with areas covered by turf algae. Our results suggest that the healthiest shallow rocky reef ecosystems in the Mediterranean have both large fish and algal biomass. Protection level and primary production were the only variables significantly correlated to community biomass structure. Fish biomass was significantly larger in well-enforced no-take marine reserves, but there were no significant differences between multi-use marine protected areas (which allow some fishing) and open access areas at the regional scale. The gradients reported here represent a trajectory of degradation that can be used to assess the health of any similar habitat in the Mediterranean, and to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas.

Experimental evidence that intra-specific competition in seagrass meadows reduces reproductive potential in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck)

To better understand the biological controls that regulate sea urchin dynamics, we studied the effects of potential inter- and intra-specific competition for food on several biological variables of the main sea urchin in the Mediterranean (Paracentrotus lividus). We carried out a caging experiment in which we manipulated sea urchin density (natural vs. high density) and herbivorous fish (Sarpa salpa) accessibility (free access vs. exclusion) in a Posidonia oceanica meadow. No evidence of competition between fish and urchins was detected. Neither density-dependent mortality nor changes in the somatic variables were found; however, we detected that intra-specific competition affected the reproductive potential of P. lividus. The gonad index of urchins at high population densities was ca. 30% lower than that of urchins at natural densities. As a spawning event had just occurred when urchins were collected, these differences probably reflect differences in reserve content, which may compromise the following reproductive period and decrease survival in the long term, as the gonads are also used as storage organs. For the time period studied, mortality rates appeared to be independent of local densities. The results indicate that a long-term negative feedback mechanism appears to take place in P. lividus in response to increased population density.