Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

NLRP3 inflammasome activation: The convergence of multiple signalling pathways on ROS production?

The NLR family, pyrin domain-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome is a multiprotein complex that activates caspase 1, leading to the processing and secretion of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) and IL-18. The NLRP3 inflammasome is activated by a wide range of danger signals that derive not only from microorganisms but also from metabolic dysregulation. It is unclear how these highly varied stress signals can be detected by a single inflammasome. In this Opinion article, we review the different signalling pathways that have been proposed to engage the NLRP3 inflammasome and suggest a model in which one of the crucial elements for NLRP3 activation is the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS).

A metapopulation model for the introgression from genetically modified plants into their wild relatives

Most models on introgression from genetically modified (GM) plants have focused on small spatial scales, modelling gene flow from a field containing GM plants into a single adjacent population of a wild relative. Here, we present a model to study the effect of introgression from multiple plantations into the whole metapopulation of the wild relative. The most important result of the model is that even very low levels of introgression and selection can lead to a high probability that the transgene goes to fixation in the metapopulation. Furthermore, the overall frequency of the transgene in the metapopulation, after a certain number of generations of introgression, depends on the population dynamics. If there is a high rate of migration or a high rate of population turnover, the overall transgene frequency is much higher than with lower rates. However, under an island model of population structure, this increased frequency has only a very small effect on the probability of fixation of the transgene. Considering these results, studies on the potential ecological risks of introgression from GM plants should look not only at the rate of introgression and selection acting on the transgene, but also at the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative.

Fronts from two-dimensional dispersal kernels: Beyond the nonoverlapping-generations model

Most integrodifference models of biological invasions are based on the nonoverlapping-generations approximation. However, the effect of multiple reproduction events overlapping generations on the front speed can be very important especially for species with a long life spam . Only in one-dimensional space has this approximation been relaxed previously, although almost all biological invasions take place in two dimensions. Here we present a model that takes into account the overlapping generations effect or, more generally, the stage structure of the population , and we analyze the main differences with the corresponding nonoverlappinggenerations results

Runaway Greenhouse Effect in a Semigray Radiative-Convective Model

The effects of the nongray absorption (i.e., atmospheric opacity varying with wavelength) on the possible upper bound of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) emitted by a planetary atmosphere have been examined. This analysis is based on the semigray approach, which appears to be a reasonable compromise between the complexity of nongray models and the simplicity of the gray assumption (i.e., atmospheric absorption independent of wavelength). Atmospheric gases in semigray atmospheres make use of constant absorption coefficients in finite-width spectral bands. Here, such a semigray absorption is introduced in a one-dimensional (1D) radiative– convective model with a stratosphere in radiative equilibrium and a troposphere fully saturated with water vapor, which is the semigray gas. A single atmospheric window in the infrared spectrum has been assumed. In contrast to the single absolute limit of OLR found in gray atmospheres, semigray ones may also show a relative limit. This means that both finite and infinite runaway effects may arise in some semigray cases. Of particular importance is the finding of an entirely new branch of stable steady states that does not appear in gray atmospheres. This new multiple equilibrium is a consequence of the nongray absorption only. It is suspected that this new set of stable solutions has not been previously revealed in analyses of radiative–convective models since it does not appear for an atmosphere with nongray parameters similar to those for the earth’s current state

Minocycline Promotes Remyelination in an In Vitro Model of Demyelination

Brain inflammation plays a central role in numerous brain pathologies, including multiple sclerosis (MS). Microglial cells and astrocytes are the effector cells of neuroinflammation. They can be activated by agents such as interferon-g (IFN-g) and lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Aggregating brain cultures exposed to a repeated treatment (3 fold) with IFN-g (50 U/ml) and LPS (5 ug/ml) were used as an in vitro model of demyelination. Demyelination could be due to either the direct effect of IFN-g and LPS on oligodendrocytes or the IFN-g and LPS-induced inflammatory response. We investigated the involvement of microglial reactivity in demylination and remyelination by using minocycline, an antibiotic known to block microglial reactivity. Changes in myelination were examined by measuring the expression of myelin basic protein (MBP) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) at the mRNA level by quantitative RT-PCR and at the protein level by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry. To evaluate brain inflammatory reactions, microglia were stained with isolectin B4 (IB4), quantitative RT-PCR was used to determine the expression of tumor necrosis factor-a (TNF-a), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and inducible NO synthase (iNOS). The repeated treatment with IFN-g and LPS caused demyelination, as indicated by a decrease in MBP and MOG expression. It also activated microglial cells, and up-regulated TNF-a, IL-6, and iNOS expression. Although minocycline did not affect the IFN-g- and LPS-induced upregulation of TNF-a, IL-6, it decreased the number of IB4-labeled microglial cells. Furthermore, minocycline did not prevent demyelination, whereas it strongly increased MBP expression one week after the end of the demyelinating treatment. In conclusion, the present results show that minocycline promoted remyelination after IFN-g- and LPS-induced demyelination, presumably due to its effects on microglial cells.

A generalized mechanistic codon model.

Models of codon evolution have attracted particular interest because of their unique capabilities to detect selection forces and their high fit when applied to sequence evolution. We described here a novel approach for modeling codon evolution, which is based on Kronecker product of matrices. The 61 × 61 codon substitution rate matrix is created using Kronecker product of three 4 × 4 nucleotide substitution matrices, the equilibrium frequency of codons, and the selection rate parameter. The entities of the nucleotide substitution matrices and selection rate are considered as parameters of the model, which are optimized by maximum likelihood. Our fully mechanistic model allows the instantaneous substitution matrix between codons to be fully estimated with only 19 parameters instead of 3,721, by using the biological interdependence existing between positions within codons. We illustrate the properties of our models using computer simulations and assessed its relevance by comparing the AICc measures of our model and other models of codon evolution on simulations and a large range of empirical data sets. We show that our model fits most biological data better compared with the current codon models. Furthermore, the parameters in our model can be interpreted in a similar way as the exchangeability rates found in empirical codon models.

Origin and outcome of multiple pregnancies in Bern, Switzerland, 1995-2006 and the current proposal of the Swiss parliament to revise the Swiss law of reproductive medicine: Switzerland quo vadis?

INTRODUCTION: Infertility treatments are a major source of the increase in multiple pregnancies (MPs). AIMS: The aims of the present study were (1.) to investigate the origin and maternal/neonatal outcomes of MP and (2.) to review the different measures that can be adopted to reduce these serious complications. METHODS: The study included all women with multiple births between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2006 at the University Hospital of Bern, Switzerland. The outcomes associated with the various origins of MP (natural conception, ovarian stimulation [OS] ‒ in-vitro fertilisation [IVF-ICSI]) were analysed using a multinomial logistic regression model. An analysis of the Swiss law on reproductive medicine and its current proposed revision, as well as a literature review using Pubmed, was carried out. RESULTS: A total of 592 MP were registered, 91% (n = 537) resulted in live births. There was significantly more neonatal/maternal morbidity in MP after OS compared with natural conception and even with the IVF-ICSI group. With a policy of elective single embryo transfer (eSET), twin rates after IVF-ICSI can be reduced to <5% and triplets to <1%. CONCLUSIONS: After OS, more triplets are found and the outcome of MP is worse. MP is known to be associated with morbidity, mortality, and economic and social risks. To counteract these complications (1.) better training for physicians performing OS should be encouraged and (2.) the Swiss law on reproductive medicine needs to be changed, with the introduction of eSET policies. This would lead to a dramatic decrease in neonatal and maternal morbidity/mortality as well as significant cost reductions for the Swiss healthcare system.

A bi-dimensional genome scan for prolificacy traits in pigs shows the existence of multiple epistatic QTL

Background: Prolificacy is the most important trait influencing the reproductive efficiency of pig production systems. The low heritability and sex-limited expression of prolificacy have hindered to some extent the improvement of this trait through artificial selection. Moreover, the relative contributions of additive, dominant and epistatic QTL to the genetic variance of pig prolificacy remain to be defined. In this work, we have undertaken this issue by performing one-dimensional and bi-dimensional genome scans for number of piglets born alive (NBA) and total number of piglets born (TNB) in a three generation Iberian by Meishan F2 intercross. Results: The one-dimensional genome scan for NBA and TNB revealed the existence of two genome-wide highly significant QTL located on SSC13 (P < 0.001) and SSC17 (P < 0.01) with effects on both traits. This relative paucity of significant results contrasted very strongly with the wide array of highly significant epistatic QTL that emerged in the bi-dimensional genome-wide scan analysis. As much as 18 epistatic QTL were found for NBA (four at P < 0.01 and five at P < 0.05) and TNB (three at P < 0.01 and six at P < 0.05), respectively. These epistatic QTL were distributed in multiple genomic regions, which covered 13 of the 18 pig autosomes, and they had small individual effects that ranged between 3 to 4% of the phenotypic variance. Different patterns of interactions (a × a, a × d, d × a and d × d) were found amongst the epistatic QTL pairs identified in the current work.Conclusions: The complex inheritance of prolificacy traits in pigs has been evidenced by identifying multiple additive (SSC13 and SSC17), dominant and epistatic QTL in an Iberian × Meishan F2 intercross. Our results demonstrate that a significant fraction of the phenotypic variance of swine prolificacy traits can be attributed to first-order gene-by-gene interactions emphasizing that the phenotypic effects of alleles might be strongly modulated by the genetic background where they segregate.

Mass casualty incidents with multiple burn victims: rationale for a Swiss burn plan.

INTRODUCTION: Mass casualty incidents involving victims with severe burns pose difficult and unique problems for both rescue teams and hospitals. This paper presents an analysis of the published reports with the aim of proposing a rational model for burn rescue and hospital referral for Switzerland. METHODS: Literature review including systematic searches of PubMed/Medline, reference textbooks and journals as well as landmark articles. RESULTS: Since hospitals have limited surge capacities in the event of burn disasters, a special approach to both prehospital and hospital management of these victims is required. Specialized rescue and care can be adequately met and at all levels of needs by deploying mobile burn teams to the scene. These burn teams can bring needed skills and enhance the efficiency of the classical disaster response teams. Burn teams assist with both primary and secondary triage, contribute to initial patient management and offer advice to non-specialized designated hospitals that provide acute care for burn patients with Total Burn Surface Area (TBSA) <20-30%. The main components required for successful deployments of mobile burn teams include socio-economic feasibility, streamlined logistical implementation as well as partnership coordination with other agencies including subsidiary military resources. CONCLUSIONS: Disaster preparedness plans involving burn specialists dispatched from a referral burn center can upgrade and significantly improve prehospital rescue outcome, initial resuscitation care and help prevent an overload to hospital surge capacities in case of multiple burn victims. This is the rationale behind the ongoing development and implementation of the Swiss burn plan.

An adult thymic stromal-cell suspension model for in vitro positive selection.

Presented here is a cell-suspension model for positive selection using thymocytes from alphabeta-TCR (H-2Db-restricted) transgenic mice specific to the lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) on a nonselecting MHC background (H-2d or TAP-1 -/-), cocultured with freshly isolated adult thymus stromal cells of the selecting MHC type. The thymic stromal cells alone induced positive selection of functional CD4- CD8+ cells whose kinetics and efficiency were enhanced by nominal peptide. Fibroblasts expressing the selecting MHC alone did not induce positive selection; however, together with nonselecting stroma and nominal peptide, there was inefficient positive. These results suggest multiple signaling in positive selection with selection events able to occur on multiple-cell types. The ease with which this model can be manipulated should greatly facilitate the resolution of the mechanisms of positive selection in normal and pathological states.

Trait decoupling promotes evolutionary diversification of the trophic and acoustic system of damselfishes.

Trait decoupling, wherein evolutionary release of constraints permits specialization of formerly integrated structures, represents a major conceptual framework for interpreting patterns of organismal diversity. However, few empirical tests of this hypothesis exist. A central prediction, that the tempo of morphological evolution and ecological diversification should increase following decoupling events, remains inadequately tested. In damselfishes (Pomacentridae), a ceratomandibular ligament links the hyoid bar and lower jaws, coupling two main morphofunctional units directly involved in both feeding and sound production. Here, we test the decoupling hypothesis by examining the evolutionary consequences of the loss of the ceratomandibular ligament in multiple damselfish lineages. As predicted, we find that rates of morphological evolution of trophic structures increased following the loss of the ligament. However, this increase in evolutionary rate is not associated with an increase in trophic breadth, but rather with morphofunctional specialization for the capture of zooplanktonic prey. Lineages lacking the ceratomandibular ligament also shows different acoustic signals (i.e. higher variation of pulse periods) from others, resulting in an increase of the acoustic diversity across the family. Our results support the idea that trait decoupling can increase morphological and behavioural diversity through increased specialization rather than the generation of novel ecotypes.

Weak and Strong Altruism in Trait Groups: Reproductive Suicide, Personal Fitness, and Expected Value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as the mechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductive suicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness while augmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingent suicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphic with a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition to contingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibit continuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usually thought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however, support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs before life history events associated with effective altruism; reproductive suicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu West Eberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuously expressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpreted as probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, without benefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive" suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter space relative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

Time Series Input Selection using Multiple Kernel Learning

In this paper we study the relevance of multiple kernel learning (MKL) for the automatic selection of time series inputs. Recently, MKL has gained great attention in the machine learning community due to its flexibility in modelling complex patterns and performing feature selection. In general, MKL constructs the kernel as a weighted linear combination of basis kernels, exploiting different sources of information. An efficient algorithm wrapping a Support Vector Regression model for optimizing the MKL weights, named SimpleMKL, is used for the analysis. In this sense, MKL performs feature selection by discarding inputs/kernels with low or null weights. The approach proposed is tested with simulated linear and nonlinear time series (AutoRegressive, Henon and Lorenz series).

Interferon-gamma impacts at multiple points during the progression of autoimmune diabetes.

The role of interferon-gamma in autoimmune diabetes was assessed by breeding a null mutation of the interferon-gamma receptor alpha chain into the nonobese diabetic mouse strain, as well as into a simplified T cell receptor transgenic model of diabetes. In contrast to a previous report on abrogation of the interferon-gamma gene, mutation of the gene encoding its receptor led to drastic effects on disease in both mouse lines. Nonobese diabetic mice showed a marked inhibition of insulitis-both the kinetics and penetrance-and no signs of diabetes; the transgenic model exhibited near-normal insulitis, but this never evolved into diabetes, either spontaneously or after experimental provocation. This failure could not be explained by perturbations in the ratio of T helper cell phenotypes; rather, it reflected a defect in antigen-presenting cells or in the islet beta cell targets.