Volatility forecasting with range models: An evaluation of new alternatives to the CARR model

The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting ability of the CARR model proposed by Chou (2005) using the S&P 500. We extend the data sample, allowing for the analysis of different stock market circumstances and propose the use of various range estimators in order to analyze their forecasting performance. Our results show that there are two range-based models that outperform the forecasting ability of the GARCH model. The Parkinson model is better for upward trends and volatilities which are higher and lower than the mean while the CARR model is better for downward trends and mean volatilities.

Educational characteristics of adult students in portuguese technological schools

Despite a massive expansion of education in Portugal, since the 1970’s, educational attainment of the adult population in the country remains low. The numbers of working-age people in some form of continuing education are among the lowest, according to the OECD and EU-27 statistics. Technological Schools(TS), initially created in the 1990’s, under the umbrella of the Ministry of Economy in partnership with industry and industrial associations, aimed to prepare qualified staff for industries and services in the country, particularly in the engineering sector, through the provision of post secondary non-university programmes of studies, the CET (Technological Specialization Courses). Successful CET students are awarded a DET(Diploma of Technological Specialization), which corresponds to Vocational Qualification level IV of the EU, according to the latest alteration (2005) of the Education Systems Act (introduced in 1986). In this, CET’s are also clearly defined as one of the routes for access to Higher Education (HE), in Portugal. The PRILHE (Promoting Reflective and Independent Learning in Higher Education) multinational project, funded by the European Socrates Grundtvig Programme, aimed to identify the learning processes which enable adult students in higher education to become autonomous reflective learners and search best practices to support these learning processes. During this research, both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to determine how students organise their studies and develop their learning skills. The Portuguese partner in the project’ consortium used a two case studies approach, one with students of Higher Education Institutions and other with students of TS. This paper only applies to students of TS, as these have a predominant bias towards engineering. Results show that student motivation and professional teaching support contribute equally to the development of an autonomous and reflective approach to learning in adult students; this is essential for success in a knowledge economy, where lifelong learning is the key to continuous employment.

Teaching with Moodle in higher education

Nowadays, with the use of technology and the Internet, education is undergoing significant changes, contemplating new ways of teaching and learning. One of the widely methods of teaching used to promote knowledge, consists in the use of virtual environments available in various formats, taking as example the teaching-learning platforms, which are available online. The Internet access and use of Laptops have created the technological conditions for teachers and students can benefit from the diversity of online information, communication, collaboration and sharing with others. The integration of Internet services in the teaching practices can provide thematic, social and digital enrichment for the agents involved. In this paper we will talk about the advantages of LMS (Learning Management Systems) such as Moodle, to support the presential lectures in higher education. We also will analyse its implications for student support and online interaction, leading educational agents to a mixing of different learning environments, where they can combine face-to-face instruction with computer-mediated instruction, blended-learning, and increases the options for better quality and quantity of human interaction in a learning environment. We also will present some tools traditionally used in online assessment and that are part of the functionalities of Moodle. These tools can provide interesting alternatives to promote a more significant learning and contribute to the development of flexible and customized models of an evaluation which we want to be more efficient.

The condensation and ordering of models of empty liquids

We consider a simple model consisting of particles with four bonding sites ("patches"), two of type A and two of type B, on the square lattice, and investigate its global phase behavior by simulations and theory. We set the interaction between B patches to zero and calculate the phase diagram as the ratio between the AB and the AA interactions, epsilon(AB)*, varies. In line with previous work, on three-dimensional off-lattice models, we show that the liquid-vapor phase diagram exhibits a re-entrant or "pinched" shape for the same range of epsilon(AB)*, suggesting that the ratio of the energy scales - and the corresponding empty fluid regime - is independent of the dimensionality of the system and of the lattice structure. In addition, the model exhibits an order-disorder transition that is ferromagnetic in the re-entrant regime. The use of low-dimensional lattice models allows the simulation of sufficiently large systems to establish the nature of the liquid-vapor critical points and to describe the structure of the liquid phase in the empty fluid regime, where the size of the "voids" increases as the temperature decreases. We have found that the liquid-vapor critical point is in the 2D Ising universality class, with a scaling region that decreases rapidly as the temperature decreases. The results of simulations and theoretical analysis suggest that the line of order-disorder transitions intersects the condensation line at a multi-critical point at zero temperature and density, for patchy particle models with a re-entrant, empty fluid, regime. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3657406]

Implications of the LHC two-photon signal for two-Higgs-doublet models

We study the implications for two-Higgs-doublet models of the recent announcement at the LHC giving a tantalizing hint for a Higgs boson of mass 125 GeV decaying into two photons. We require that the experimental result be within a factor of 2 of the theoretical standard model prediction, and analyze the type I and type II models as well as the lepton-specific and flipped models, subject to this requirement. It is assumed that there is no new physics other than two Higgs doublets. In all of the models, we display the allowed region of parameter space taking the recent LHC announcement at face value, and we analyze the W+W-, ZZ, (b) over barb, and tau(+)tau(-) expectations in these allowed regions. Throughout the entire range of parameter space allowed by the gamma gamma constraint, the numbers of events for Higgs decays into WW, ZZ, and b (b) over bar are not changed from the standard model by more than a factor of 2. In contrast, in the lepton-specific model, decays to tau(+)tau(-) are very sensitive across the entire gamma gamma-allowed region.

As conceções e as práticas dos gestores de topo na escola pública e privada : convergências e divergências

O papel crucial da escola na sociedade e o exercício da atividade profissional como docente, com um olhar atento sobre o traçar das políticas educativas, motivou a elaboração deste trabalho de investigação, que tem como objeto de estudo os papéis desempenhados pelos diretores das escolas estatais e não estatais e como objetivos específicos estudar o impacto da legislação emanada pela tutela, nas escolas públicas e privadas e analisar as convergências e divergências nas conceções e práticas dos seus diretores. As dimensões analíticas exploradas no estudo abrangem as conceções gestionárias dos diretores quanto aos modelos de gestão, às práticas de autonomia, ao serviço educativo e à prestação de contas. Este trabalho de natureza qualitativa foca o olhar sobre um grupo restrito de atores educativos que foram escolhidos devido ao papel que desempenham na organização educativa e porque a publicação do Decreto- Lei 75/ 2008 de 22 de abril, trouxe alterações à escola pública. A tradição de direção colegial que vigorava nas organizações educativas estatais foi quebrada. O presidente do conselho diretivo é doravante substituído pelo diretor que passa a delegar competências, a designar equipas e a prestar contas à tutela e comunidade educativa à semelhança do diretor da escola privada. O estudo de caso apresentado foi realizado em três escolas públicas e em três colégios privados com recurso a entrevistas semiestruturadas e à análise documental. As conclusões deste trabalho remetem para a existência de muitos pontos de convergência entre a opinião dos diretores da escola pública e privada. As temáticas relativas à autonomia, escolha do pessoal docente e prestação de contas, são olhadas pela mesma perspetiva. A autonomia é vista como “uma miragem”; uma “terra prometida” (Lima e Afonso, 1995). A prestação de contas é exigida aos diretores do ensino estatal e do privado através de instrumentos próximos. As principais divergências situam-se ao nível do menor interesse demonstrado, por parte da direção da escola privada, pela oferta de cursos profissionais e pelo menor investimento em estratégias para a prevenção do abandono escolar, que é considerado pouco significativo na escola não estatal. A defesa da escolha de escola e da modalidade de cheque ensino são outros dos pontos que marcam a divergência entre estes diretores. Abstract: This investigative paper - whose objective is the study of the role of the school directors, both State and non-state, and the impact of legislation on both State and private schools, as well as the analysis of the convergent and divergent conceptions and practices of these directors – is motivated by the crucial role played by schools in our society and by the professional activity of the teacher, with an attentive look at the educational practices. The analytical dimension explored in this study includes the various concepts of management of the school director as models of management, as well as practices in self-sufficiency, budget control and educational service to the community. This study has a qualitative nature and focuses on a small group of individuals who were chosen for the role they play in the whole educational structure, considering that the Decree nº 75/2008, published on April the 22nd, determined alterations to the public school system. The traditional method of control of the public school system has, henceforth, been changed. The headmaster is now substituted by a director who delegates his functions, makes up work teams and elaborates the school budget which is presented to the respective governmental ministry and the community, much like as what happens in private schools. The present study encompasses three public schools and three private schools, the methods of study being semi-structured interviews as well as the consultation of documentation. The conclusions point to many convergent opinions of the school directors of both the public and the private sector. The school directors of both public and private schools used in this study share the same opinion as to the factors involved in the selection of teachers, the elaboration of the school budget and the implementation of self-sufficiency policies. These self-sufficiency policies are seen as a “mirage” or a “promised land” (Lima and Afonso, 1995). The school budget and its management practices are implemented in both public and private schools through similar instruments. The principal differences are noted on smaller, less interesting points, on the part of the direction of the private schools, and result from the elaboration of professional courses and minor investment in the strategies, oriented to the prevention of school drop-outs, which is considered of little significance in the private school sector. The other factors of divergence result from the right to choose the type of school desired and the type of teaching implemented.

Supporting leadership development by exposure to role models: two case studies

The idiomatic expression “In Rome be a Roman” can be applied to leadership training and development as well. Leaders who can act as role models inspire other future leaders in their behaviour, attitudes and ways of thinking. Based on two examples of current leaders in the fields of Politics and Public Administration, I support the idea that exposure to role models during their training was decisive for their career paths and current activities as prominent characters in their profession. Issues such as how students should be prepared for community or national leadership as well as cross-cultural engagement are raised here. The hypothesis of transculturalism and cross-cultural commitment as a factor of leadership is presented. Based on current literature on Leadership as well as the presented case studies, I expect to raise a debate focusing on strategies for improving leaders’ training in their cross-cultural awareness.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Perspetivas dos professores do 1º ciclo sobre a supervisão no processo de avaliação de desempenho e os seus efeitos no desenvolvimento profissional

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de mestre em Ciências da Educação, especialização Supervisão em Educação

O desenvolvimento da leitura em função de diferentes métodos

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa no âmbito do Mestrado em Ensino Especial

Learning objects recommendation in an adaptive educational hypermedia system

The aim of this paper is presenting the modules of the Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System PCMAT, responsible for the recommendation of learning objects. PCMAT is an online collaborative learning platform with a constructivist approach, which assesses the user’s knowledge and presents contents and activities adapted to the characteristics and learning style of students of mathematics in basic schools. The recommendation module and search and retrieval module choose the most adequate learning object, based on the user's characteristics and performance, and in this way contribute to the system’s adaptability.

Epidemiology of physiotherapy utilization among adults and elderly

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence of physiotherapy utilization and to explore the variables associated to its utilization. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study, including 3,100 subjects aged 20 years or more living in the urban area of Pelotas, southern Brazil, was carried out. The sample was selected following a multiple-stage protocol; the census tracts delimited by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) were the primary sample units. Following descriptive and crude analyses, Poisson regression models taking the clustering of the sample into account were carried out. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using a standardized and pre-tested questionnaire. RESULTS: The lifetime utilization of physiotherapy was 30.2%; and physiotherapy utilization in the 12 months prior to the interview was reported by 4.9%. Women, elderly subjects, and those from higher socioeconomic levels were more likely to use physiotherapy. Restricting analysis to subjects who attended physiotherapy, 66% used public health services, 25% used insurance health services and 9% had private sessions. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first population-based study on physiotherapy utilization carried out in Brazil. Utilization of physio therapy was lower than reported in both developed and developing countries. The study findings might help public health authorities to organize healthcare service in terms of this important demand.

Dynamical analysis in growth models: Blumberg’s equation

We present a new dynamical approach to the Blumberg's equation, a family of unimodal maps. These maps are proportional to Beta(p, q) probability densities functions. Using the symmetry of the Beta(p, q) distribution and symbolic dynamics techniques, a new concept of mirror symmetry is defined for this family of maps. The kneading theory is used to analyze the effect of such symmetry in the presented models. The main result proves that two mirror symmetric unimodal maps have the same topological entropy. Different population dynamics regimes are identified, when the intrinsic growth rate is modified: extinctions, stabilities, bifurcations, chaos and Allee effect. To illustrate our results, we present a numerical analysis, where are demonstrated: monotonicity of the topological entropy with the variation of the intrinsic growth rate, existence of isentropic sets in the parameters space and mirror symmetry.

A produção de educação nos Açores: a nota de matemática

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais (Desenvolvimento Económico e Social e Economia Pública), 16 de Janeiro de 2014, Universidade dos Açores.

An Extension of Gompertzian Growth Dynamics Weibull and Frechet Models

In this work a new probabilistic and dynamical approach to an extension of the Gompertz law is proposed. A generalized family of probability density functions, designated by Beta* (p, q), which is proportional to the right hand side of the Tsoularis-Wallace model, is studied. In particular, for p = 2, the investigation is extended to the extreme value models of Weibull and Frechet type. These models, described by differential equations, are proportional to the hyper-Gompertz growth model. It is proved that the Beta* (2, q) densities are a power of betas mixture, and that its dynamics are determined by a non-linear coupling of probabilities. The dynamical analysis is performed using techniques of symbolic dynamics and the system complexity is measured using topological entropy. Generally, the natural history of a malignant tumour is reflected through bifurcation diagrams, in which are identified regions of regression, stability, bifurcation, chaos and terminus.