The Mirage of the State: Why the West has failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 15, July 2014

The state still matters. However, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community may be misinterpreting this crucial baseline prior launching their military interventions since 2001. The latest violence and collapse of the state of Iraq after the invasion of Northern Iraq by a radical Sunni Muslim terrorist group, so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), demonstrate once again the centrality and requirement of a functioning state in order to maintain violent forces to disrupt domestic and regional stability. Since 2001, the US and its European allies have waged wars against failed-states in order to increase this security and national interests, and then have been involved in some type of state-building.1 This has been the case in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, and Central African Republic (CAR). France went into Mali (2012) and CAR (2013), which preceded two European Union military and civilian Common Security and Defense Policy missions (CSDP), in order to avoid the collapse of these two states. The threat of the collapse of both states was a concern for the members of the Euro-Atlantic community as it could have spread to the region and causing even greater instabilities. In Mali, the country was under radical Islamic pressures coming from the North after the collapse of Libya ensuing the 2011 Western intervention, while in CAR it was mainly an ethno-religious crisis. Failed states are a real concern, as they can rapidly become training grounds for radical groups and permitting all types of smuggling and trafficking.2 In Mali, France wanted to protect its large French population and avoid the fall of Mali in the hands of radical Islamic groups directly or indirectly linked to Al-Qaeda. A fallen Mali could have destabilized the region of the Sahel and ultimately affected the stability of Southern European borders. France wanted to avoid the development of a safe haven across the Sahel where movements of people and goods are uncontrolled and illegal.3 Since the end of the Cold War, Western powers have been involved in stabilizing neighborhoods and regions, like the Balkans, Africa, and Middle East, which at the exceptions of the Balkans, have led to failed policies. 9/11 changes everything. The US, under President George W. Bush, started to wage war against terrorism and all states link to it. This started a period of continuous Western interventions in this post-9/11 era in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and CAR. If history has demonstrated one thing, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community are struggling and will continue to struggle to stabilize Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic (CAR) for one simple reason: no clear endgame. Is it the creation of a state à la Westphalian in order to permit these states to operate as the sole guarantor of security? Or is the reestablishment of status quo in these countries permitting to exit and end Western operations? This article seeks to analyze Western interventions in these five countries in order to reflect on the concept of the state and the erroneous starting point for each intervention.4 In the first part, the political status of each country is analyzed in order to understand the internal and regional crisis. In a second time, the concept of the state, framed into the Buzanian trinity, is discussed and applied to the cases. In the last part the European and American civilian-military doctrines are examined in accordance with their latest military interventions and in their broader spectrum.

The European Union’s Response to Piracy: Are the Lessons Learned in the Horn of Africa a Model for the Gulf of Guinea? EU Diplomacy Paper/2015

The European Union (EU) is seen as the leading actor in successfully fighting piracy around the Horn of Africa. As a global trade power with strong economic interests, the EU is also challenged by similar maritime security threats in the Gulf of Guinea. To date, there has been no comprehensive analysis to assess the potential transfer of successful EU instruments from the Horn of Africa to the piracy situation in West African waters. This paper examines to what extent the EU can draw on its experience made in the Horn of Africa to deter piracy in West African waters. Based on qualitative research interviews, lessons learned from East Africa are identified and subsequently applied to the situation in the Gulf of Guinea. The results show that the EU is only partially drawing on its experience made in the Horn of Africa. One the one hand, it is rather reluctant to use crisis management instruments such as naval operations. On the other hand, the EU is drawing on its successful leadership in international political and military cooperation from around the Horn of Africa in order to make more effective use of available resources in the Gulf of Guinea.

Sea surface temperatures derived from alkenones from Late Quaternary sediments of the East Equatorial South Atlantic

Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge records of past sea surface temperatures (SST) derived from the alkenone Uk 37 index are used to reconstruct the surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic for the last 200,000 years. Comparison of SST estimates from surface sediments between 5° and 20°S with modern SST data suggests that the alkenone temperatures represent annual mean values of the surface mixed layer. Alkenone-derived temperatures for the warm climatic maxima of the Holocene and the penultimate interglacial are 1 to 4°C higher than latest Holocene values. All records show glacial to interglacial differences of about 3.5°C in annual mean SST, which is about 1.5°C greater than the difference estimated by CLIMAP (1981) for the eastern Angola Basin. At the Walvis Ridge, significant SST variance is observed at all of the Earth's orbital periodicities. SST records from the Angola Basin vary predominantly at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. For the precessional cycle, SST changes at the Walvis Ridge correspond to variations of boreal summer insolation over Africa and lead ice volume changes, suggesting that the east equatorial South Atlantic is sensitive to African monsoon intensity via trade-wind zonality. Angola Basin SST records lag those from the Walvis Ridge and the equatorial Atlantic by about 3 kyr. The comparison of Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge SST records implies that the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF) (currently at about 14-16°S) has remained fairly stationary between 12° and 20°S (the limits of our cores) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The temperature contrast associated with the ABF exhibits a periodic 23-kyr variability which is coherent with changes in boreal summer insolation over Africa. These observations suggest that surface waters north of the present ABF have not directly responded to monsoon-modulated changes in the trade-wind vector, that the central field of zonally directed trades in the southern hemisphere was not shifted or extended northward by several degrees of latitude during glacials, and that a cyclonic gyre circulation has existed in the east equatorial South Atlantic over the last 200,000 years. This scenario contradicts former assumptions of glacial intensification of the Benguela Current into the eastern Angola Basin and increased coastal upwelling off Angola.

Rock magnetic records and geochemical methods of sediment cores off NW Africa

Two gravity cores retrieved off NW Africa at the border of arid and subtropical environments (GeoB 13602-1 and GeoB 13601-4) were analyzed to extract records of Late Quaternary climate change and sediment export. We apply End Member (EM) unmixing to 350 acquisition curves of isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM). Our approach enables to discriminate rock magnetic signatures of aeolian and fluvial material, to determine biomineralization and reductive diagenesis. Based on the occurrence of pedogenically formed magnetic minerals in the fluvial and aeolian EMs, we can infer that goethite formed in favor to hematite in more humid climate zones. The diagenetic EM dominates in the lower parts of the cores and within a thin near-surface layer probably representing the modern Fe**2+/Fe**3+ redox boundary. Up to 60% of the IRM signal is allocated to a biogenic EM underlining the importance of bacterial magnetite even in siliciclastic sediments. Magnetosomes are found well preserved over most of the record, indicating suboxic conditions. Temporal variations of the aeolian and fluvial EMs appear to faithfully reproduce and support trends of dry and humid conditions on the continent. The proportion of aeolian to fluvial material was dramatically higher during Heinrich Stadials, especially during Heinrich Stadial 1. Dust export from the Arabian-Asian corridor appears to vary contemporaneous to increased dust fluxes on the continental margin of NW Africa emphasizing that melt-water discharge in the North Atlantic had an enormous impact on atmospheric dynamics.

Pollen abundance in Late Quaternary sediment cores off West Africa

The pollen record of three marine late Quaternary cores off Senegal shows a juxtaposition of Mediterranean, Northern Saharan, Central Saharan elements, which are considered transported by the trade winds from a winter-rainfall area, and Sahelian, Soudanese, Soudano-Guinean elements, considered transported both by winds and mostly by the Senegal River, and coming from the monsoonal, summer tropical rainfall area of southern West Africa. Littoral vegetation is either the edaphically dry and saline Chenopodiaceae from sebkhas at the time of the main regression, or the warm tropical humid mangrove with Rhizophora during the humid optimum period. Four stratigraphic zones reflect, from basis to top: Zone 4. A semi-arid period with a balanced pollen input. Zone 3. A very arid period with the disappearance of monsoonal pollen, probably from the disappearance of the Senegal River, a very saline littoral plain with Chenopodiaceae, a larger input of northern Saharan pollen from intensified trade winds. Zone 2. A quite humid period, much more so than today, very suddenly established, with a northward extension of the monsoonal areas, a rich littoral mangrove, and weakening of the trade winds. Zone l. A slow and steady evolution toward the present semi-humid conditions with regression of the mangrove, and of the monsoonal areas toward the south. Tentative datations and correlations with the Tchad area suggested: zone 4: 22,500 to 19,000 years BP; zone 3: 19,000 to 12,500 years BP; zone 2: 12,500 to 5,500 years BP; zone 1: 5,500 years BP to top of core. Dinoflagellate cysts display a tropical assemblage with mostly estuarine neritic elements and also a weak oceanic component, mostly in the lower slope core 47. Cosmopolitan taxa dominate the assemblage and only a few species point to more specialized environments. Quantitative variations of the assemblage are the basis of stratigraphy which is not similar to the pollen stratigraphy, and an inshore-outshore gradient has to be taken into account to correlate the three cores.

Benthic foraminifera of surface samples and sediment cores off Senegal and Gambia, West Africa

Water depth zonation of fifty nine benthonic foraminiferal species in marine sediment surfaces has been described. Some species are combined to groups which mark particular depth zones: an upper and lower shelf-fauna, an upper and lower slope fauna, and a shelf-slope fauna. Dependence on latitude could be ascertained for Textularia panamensis, and submergence effects for Hyalinea balthica.

Pollen analysis of surface sediments from the Gulf of Guinea and offshore NW-Africa

The areas of marine pollen deposition are related to the pollen source areas by aeolian and fluvial transport regimes, whereas wind transport is much more important than river transport. Pollen distribution patterns of Pinus, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, and Asteraceae Tubuliflorae trace atmospheric transport by the northeast trades. Pollen transport by the African Easterly Jet is reflected in the pollen distribution patterns of Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Asteraceae Tubuliflorae, and Mitracarpus. Grass pollen distribution registers the latitudinal extension of Sahel, savannas and dry open forests. Marine pollen distribution patterns of Combretaceae-Melastomataceae, Alchornea, and Elaeis reflect the extension of wooded grasslands and transitional forests. Pollen from the Guinean-Congolian/Zambezian forest and from the Sudanian/Guinean vegetation zones mark the northernmost extension of the tropical rain forest. Rhizophora pollen in marine sediments traces the distribution of mangrove swamps. Only near the continent, pollen of Rhizophora, Mitracarpus, Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, and pollen from the Sudanian and Guinean vegetation zones are transported by the Upwelling Under Current and the Equatorial Under Current, where those currents act as bottom currents. The distribution of pollen in marine sediments, reflecting the position of major climatic zones (desert, dry tropics, humid tropics), can be used in tracing climatic changes in the past.

Mass fluxes and organic carbon fluxes at four stations off Cape Blanc, NW Africa (Mauritania)

Vertical carbon fluxes between the surface and 2500 m depth were estimated from in situ profiles of particle size distributions and abundances me/asured off Cape Blanc (Mauritania) related to deep ocean sediment traps. Vertical mass fluxes off Cape Blanc were significantly higher than recent global estimates in the open ocean. The aggregates off Cape Blanc contained high amounts of ballast material due to the presence of coccoliths and fine-grained dust from the Sahara desert, leading to a dominance of small and fast-settling aggregates. The largest changes in vertical fluxes were observed in the surface waters (<250 m), and, thus, showing this site to be the most important zone for aggregate formation and degradation. The degradation length scale (L), i.e. the fractional degradation of aggregates per meter settled, was estimated from vertical fluxes derived from the particle size distribution through the water column. This was compared with fractional remineralization rate of aggregates per meter settled derived from direct ship-board measurements of sinking velocity and small-scale O2 fluxes to aggregates measured by micro-sensors. Microbial respiration by attached bacteria alone could not explain the degradation of organic matter in the upper ocean. Instead, flux feeding from zooplankton organisms was indicated as the dominant degradation process of aggregated carbon in the surface ocean. Below the surface ocean, microbes became more important for the degradation as zooplankton was rare at these depths.