The effective management of geological risk in long-term production scheduling of open pit mines

Investment in mining projects, like most business investment, is susceptible to risk and uncertainty. The ability to effectively identify, assess and manage risk may enable strategic investments to be sheltered and operations to perform closer to their potential. In mining, geological uncertainty is seen as the major contributor to not meeting project expectations. The need to assess and manage geological risk for project valuation and decision-making translates to the need to assess and manage risk in any pertinent parameter of open pit design and production scheduling. This is achieved by taking geological uncertainty into account in the mine optimisation process. This thesis develops methods that enable geological uncertainty to be effectively modelled and the resulting risk in long-term production scheduling to be quantified and managed. One of the main accomplishments of this thesis is the development of a new, risk-based method for the optimisation of long-term production scheduling. In addition to maximising economic returns, the new method minimises the risk of deviating from production forecasts, given the understanding of the orebody. This ability represents a major advance in the risk management of open pit mining.

Safety and health in mines: the rise of bureaucracy in the coal mining industry and its results as evidenced by the public enquiry into an accident at Houghton Main Colliery

This thesis is concerned with certain aspects of the Public Inquiry into the accident at Houghton Main Colliery in June 1975. It examines whether prior to the accident there existed at the Colliery a situation in which too much reliance was being placed upon state regulation and too Iittle upon personal responsibility. I study the phenomenon of state regulation. This is done (a) by analysis of selected writings on state regulation/intervention/interference/bureaucracy (the words are used synonymously) over the last two hundred years, specifically those of Marx on the 1866 Committee on Mines, and (b) by studying Chadwick and Tremenheere, leading and contrasting "bureaucrats" of the mid-nineteenth century. The bureaucratisation of the mining industry over the period 1835-1954 is described, and it is demonstrated that the industry obtained and now possesses those characteristics outlined by Max Weber in his model of bureaucracy. I analyse criticisms of the model and find them to be relevant, in that they facilitate understanding both of the circumstances of the accident and of the Inquiry . Further understanding of the circumstances and causes of the accident was gained by attendance at the lnquiry and by interviewing many of those involved in the Inquiry. I analyse many aspects of the Inquiry - its objectives. structure, procedure and conflicting interests - and find that, although the Inquiry had many of the symbols of bureaucracy, it suffered not from " too much" outside interference. but rather from the coal mining industry's shared belief in its ability to solve its own problems. I found nothing to suggest that, prior to the accident, colliery personnel relied. or were encouraged to rely, "too much" upon state regulation.