On the Informational Role of Term Structure in the U.S. Monetary Policy Rule

This paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new Keynesian monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered. More importantly, the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real-time data are not well behaved.

The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.

How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? an Indirect Inference Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model under alternative specifications of the monetary policy rule using U.S. and Eurozone data. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical method based on the indirect inference principle. An unrestricted VAR is considered as the auxiliary model. On the one hand, the estimation method proposed overcomes some of the shortcomings of using a structural VAR as the auxiliary model in order to identify the impulse response that defines the minimum distance estimator implemented in the literature. On the other hand, by following a classical approach we can further assess the estimation results found in recent papers that follow a maximum-likelihood Bayesian approach. The estimation results show that some structural parameter estimates are quite sensitive to the specification of monetary policy. Moreover, the estimation results in the U.S. show that the fit of the NKM under an optimal monetary plan is much worse than the fit of the NKM model assuming a forward-looking Taylor rule. In contrast to the U.S. case, in the Eurozone the best fit is obtained assuming a backward-looking Taylor rule, but the improvement is rather small with respect to assuming either a forward-looking Taylor rule or an optimal plan.

The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Annual report 2004 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Thirteenth meeting, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A., October 14-24, 2004

Report of Opening Session (pdf 0.07 Mb) Report of Governing Council (pdf 0.2 Mb) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 0.08 Mb) Reports of Science Board and Committees Science Board inter-sessional meeting (pdf 0.05 Mb) Science Board (pdf 0.1 Mb) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 0.1 Mb) Fishery Science Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Sections, Working and Study Groups Harmful Algal Blooms Section (pdf 0.03 Mb) Working Group 17 on Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis (pdf 0.03 Mb) Working Group 18 on Mariculture in the 21st century - The intersection between ecology, socio-economics and production (pdf 0.06 Mb) Study Group on Ecosystem-based management science and its application to the North Pacific (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 0.04 Mb) BASS Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) CFAME Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MODEL Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 0.03 Mb) REX Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Advisory Panels Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific (pdf 0.4 Mb) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean (pdf 0.03 Mb) Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals (pdf 0.04 Mb) Advisory Panel on Micronekton Sampling Inter-Calibration experiment (pdf 0.04 Mb) Summary of Scientific Sessions and Workshops (pdf 0.2 Mb) Membership List (pdf 0.07 Mb) List of Participants (pdf 0.09 Mb) List of Acronyms (pdf 0.03 Mb)

Annual report 1998 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Seventh meeting, Fairbanks, Alaska, U.S.A., October 14-25, 1998

Report of Opening Session (pdf 68 KB) Report of Governing Council Meetings (pdf 61 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 56 KB) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 64 KB) Working Group 14: Effective sampling of micronekton to estimate ecosystem carrying capacity Working Group 11: Consumption of Marine Resources by Marine Birds and Mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 55 KB) Working Group 12: Crabs and Shrimps Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 104 KB) Working Group 8: Practical Assessment Methodology Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 44KB) Working Group 13: CO2 in the North Pacific Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 37 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 54 KB) Finance and Administration: Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 31 KB) Assets on 31st of December, 1997 Income and Expenditures for 1997 Budget for 1999 Composition of the Organization (pdf 27 KB) List of Participants (pdf 48 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 13 KB)

Annual report 1993 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Second meeting, Seattle, WA, U.S.A., October 25-30, 1993

Report of Opening Session Report of Governing Council Meetings Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board Biological Oceanography Committee Fishery Science Committee Marine Environmental Quality Committee Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee Finance and Administration: Report of the Finance and Administration Committee Assets on 31st of December, 1992 Income and Expenditures for 1992 Budget for 1994 Composition of the Organization List of Participants (Document has 78 pages.)

First U.S. battleships through Panama Canal: Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin (postcard ca 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

U.S.S. Ohio, Panama Canal (ca. 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

U.S. Favorite, Pedro Miguel Lock - Old Timers Trip through the Canal, Jan. 20, 1928

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Views of Panama and the Canal. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

80 C 143 U.S. Aeroplane carrier "Saratoga" in Guillard Cut- Panama Canal - Feb. 7, 1928

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Views of Panama and the Canal. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.