EU Migration Policy in the wake of the Arab Spring. What prospects for EU-Southern Mediterranean Relations? MEDPRO Technical Report No. 15/August 2012

The outbreak of the Arab Spring and the unrest, revolution and war that followed during the course of 2011 have forced the EU to acknowledge the need to radically re-think its policy approach towards the Southern Mediterranean, including in the domain of migration. Migration and mobility now feature as key components of High Representative Catherine Ashton’s new framework for cooperation with the region (Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity), while the EU has declared its intention to strengthen its external migration policy by setting up “mutually beneficial” partnerships with third countries – so-called ‘Dialogues for Migration, Mobility and Security’ – now placed at the centre of the EU’s renewed Global Approach to Migration and Mobility (GAMM). However, the success of this approach and its potential to establish genuine cooperative partnerships that will support smooth economic and political transformation in North Africa hinge on the working arrangements and institutional configurations shaping the renewed GAMM at EU level which has long been marked by internal fragmentation, a lack of transparency and a predominance of home affairs and security actors. This paper investigates the development of the Dialogues for Migration, Mobility and Security with the Southern Mediterranean in a post-Lisbon Treaty institutional setting. It asks to what extent has the application of the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of an “EU Foreign Minister” in High Representative Ashton, supported by a European External Action Service (EEAS), remedied or re-invigorated the ideological and institutional struggles around the implementation of the Global Approach? Who are the principal agents shaping and driving the Dialogues for Migration, Mobility and Security? Who goes abroad to speak on the behalf of the EU in these Dialogues and what impact does this have on the effectiveness, legitimacy and accountability of the Dialogues under the renewed GAMM as well as the wider prospects for the Southern Mediterranean?

Manufactured Exports and FDI in Southern Mediterranean Countries: Evolution, determinants and prospects. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 14/April 2012

This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of manufactured exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in 11 southern Mediterranean countries over the period 1985–2009, as well as their prospects under different scenarios pertaining to the development of the determinants. The econometric analysis confirms the role of exchange rate depreciation, the openness of the economy and the quality of institutions and infrastructure in fostering manufactured exports and FDI inflows in the region. The assessment of the prospects suggests that a scenario of deeper integration with the EU entails superior performance for manufactured exports and FDI compared with either the status quo or less integration with the EU but greater integration within the region.

Determinants of Growth and Inflation in Southern Mediterranean Countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 10/March 2012

Despite significant economic reforms in many Southern Mediterranean EU neighbour countries, their growth performance has on average been subdued. This study analyses the differences in growth performance and macroeconomic stability across Mediterranean countries, to draw lessons for the future. The main findings are that Southern Mediterranean countries should benefit from closer ties with the EU that result in higher levels of trade and FDI inflows, once the turbulence of the ‘Arab Spring’ is resolved, and from the development of financial markets and infrastructure. They will also benefit in keeping inflation under control, which will depend in great part on their ability to maintain fiscal discipline and sustainable current accounts. One of the main challenges for the region will be to implement structural reforms that can help them absorb a large pool of unemployed without creating upward risks to inflation.

Distribution of planktonic foraminifera in surface sediments of the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean Sea is a partillay isolated ocean where excess evaporation over precipitation results in large east to west gradients in temperature and salinity. Recent planktonic foraminiferal distributions have been examined in 66 surface sediment samples from the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to mapping the frequency distribution of 16 species, the faunal data has been subjected to cluster analysis, factor analysis and species diversity analysis. The clustering of species yields assemblages that are clearly temperature related. A warm assemblage contains both tropical and subtropical elements, while the cool assemblage can be subdivided into cool-subtropical, transitional and polar-subpolar groupings. Factor analysis is used to delineate the geographic distribution of four faunal assemblages. Factor 1 is a tropical-subtropical assemblage dominated by Globigerinoiden ruber. It has its highest values in the warmer eastern basin. Transitional species (Globorotalia inflata and Globigerina bulloides) dominate factor 2 with highest values occurring in the cooler western basin. Factor 3 reflects the distribution of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei and is considered to be salinity dependent. Subpolar species dominate factor 4 (Neoglobuquadrina pachyderma and G. bulloides), with highest values occurring in the northern part of the western basin where cold bottom water is presently being formed. The Shannon-Weiner index of species diversity shows that high diversity exists over much of the western basin and immediately east of the Strait of Sicily. This region is marked by equitable environmental conditions and relatively even distribution of individuals among the species. Conversely, in areas where temperature and salinity values are more extreme, diversity values are lower and the assemblages are dominated by one or two species.

Heat flow in the Black and Mediterranean seas

Results of heat-flow measurements in the western Black Sea and within the African-Sicilian region of the Mediterranean Sea are presented. New data reveal a well-defined correlation with the deep-seated geologic structure of the regions examined. A heat-flow anomaly within the Pantelleria graben, in the authors' opinion, is a consequence of connective heat transfer along channels of disjunctive faults.

Sr and Nd composition, stable oxygen isotope record and lithogenic flux in eastern Mediterranean sediments

Isotopic ratios of Sr and Nd from lithogenic components of three isochronous core sections recovered from an east-west transect in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS) have been analyzed. The data are used for a quantitative estimate of the temporal and spatial variation of detrital flux to the EMS, assuming Saharan dust and Aegean/Nile particulate matter as dominant end members. It was established that the carbonate-free Saharan dust flux during deposition of the nonsapropel layers of marine oxygen isotope stage 5.4 (MIS 5.4) was similar to the present flux. During the deposition of sapropels S5 and S6, however, the Saharan dust input was drastically reduced and was not balanced by a change in the riverine influx at this time. Denser vegetation cover during more humid conditions may have reduced physical erosion and sediment removal in the source area. During marine oxygen isotope stage 6.2 (MIS 6.2) a pronounced increase of Saharan dust and detrital influx from the Aegean region is evident and implies more arid conditions in the southern and northern catchment areas. During this period, intersite variations are interpreted in terms of their geographic location relative to the seaways connecting the Aegean Sea and EMS. The width of the straits and hence the amount of sediment entering the eastern basins may have been affected by a low sea level that impeded interbasin sediment dispersal.

(Table 1) Heavy mineral content in sediments of the southern Mediterranean Ridge, Nile Cone and Egyptian Shelf

Petrographic analysis of Quaternary terrigenous sand layers in eastern Mediterranean cores reveals distinct mineralogical differences between the Egyptian Shelf-Nile Cone region and the southern part of the Mediterranean Ridge. A compositionally and texturally immature suite in Ridge cores, mixed with a Nile-derived assemblage, identifies a fresh non-recycled mineral component derived from proximal igneous and metamorphic surface or near-surface exposures, probably in the south-central Ridge area rather than from distal African sources. The presence of such basement terrains would be consistent with a compressive thrust-belt origin for this part of the Mediterranean Ridge.

Climatic regulation of seed dormancy and emergence of diverse Malva parviflora populations from a Mediterranean-type environment

Malva parviflora L. (Malvaceae) is rapidly becoming a serious weed of Australian farming systems. An understanding of the variability of its seed behaviour is required to enable the development of integrated weed management strategies. Mature M. parviflora seeds were collected from four diverse locations in the Mediterranean-type climatic agricultural region of Western Australia. All of the seeds exhibited physical dormancy at collection; manual scarification or a period of fluctuating summer temperatures (50/20 degrees C or natural) were required to release dormancy. When scarified and germinated soon (1 month) after collection, the majority of seeds were able to germinate over a wide range of temperatures (5-37 degrees C) and had no light requirement. Germination was slower for seeds stored for 2 months than seeds stored for 2 years, suggesting the presence of shallow physiological dormancy. Seed populations from regions with similar annual rainfall exhibited similar dormancy release patterns; seeds from areas of low rainfall (337-344mm) were more responsive to fluctuating temperatures, releasing physical dormancy earlier than those from areas of high rainfall (436-444mm). After 36 months, maximum seedling emergence from soil in the field was 60%, with buried seeds producing 13-34% greater emergence than seeds on the surface. Scanning electron microscopy of the seed coat revealed structural differences in the chalazal region of permeable and impermeable seeds, suggesting the importance of this region in physical dormancy breakdown of M. parviflora seeds. The influence of rainfall during plant growth in determining dormancy release, and hence, germination and emergence timing, must be considered when developing management strategies for M. parviflora.

Beyond securitisation : Western Mediterranean international relations from a security perspective 1989-2002

Following the end of the Cold War and the ensuing changes to the international landscape, thinking about security has tended to become more discursive and interpretative in nature. What counts as security has increasingly derived from security discourses (that is, 'securitisation') and uncertainty about the multi-faceted future facing various countries and regions. Within this post-Cold War discourse, the Western Mediterranean has emerged as a region fraught with latent and manifest threats in the economic, political, societal and military sectors. Improved access to EU markets for Maghrebi exports; the security of energy supplies to the EU from Algeria and Libya; lack of democracy and the advance of political Islam; the flow of northward migration and worries about law and order in France, Italy and Spain; the growth in military expenditure and weapons proliferation in the Maghreb; all have been central to the securitisation agenda. However, this agenda has often lacked credibility especially when inter-linkages have purportedly been established between economic underdevelopment and political instability, between the advance of political Islam and the threat to energy supplies, or between immigration and the threat to national identity. Such inter-sectoral linkages distract from the credibility of those 'securitisation instances' which correspond to reality; the former linkages have often been exploited by extremist politicians in south-west European countries as well as by regimes in the Maghreb to advance their respective interests. Thus, securitisation may defeat its main purpose; it may generate responses out of keeping with the aims proclaimed at the outset, aims centred on the countering of real threats and the ensuring of greater stability.

(Table 2) Radiocarbon dating on cold-water corals collected in the Mediterranean Sea

This study presents newly obtained coral ages of the cold-water corals Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata collected in the Alboran Sea and the Strait of Sicily (Urania Bank). These data were combined with all available Mediterranean Lophelia and Madrepora ages compiled from literature to conduct a basin-wide assessment of the spatial and temporal occurrence of these prominent framework-forming scleractinian species in the Mediterranean realm and to unravel the palaeo-environmental conditions that controlled their proliferation or decline. For the first time special focus was placed on a closer examination of potential differences occurring between the eastern and western Mediterranean sub-basins. Our results clearly demonstrate that cold-water corals occurred sparsely in the entire Mediterranean during the last glacial before becoming abundant during the Bølling-Allerød warm interval, pointing to a basin-wide, almost concurrent onset in (re-)colonisation after ~13.5 ka. This time coincides with a peak in meltwater discharge originating from the northern Mediterranean borderlands which caused a major reorganisation of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. During the Younger Dryas and Holocene, some striking differences in coral proliferation were identified between the sub-basins such as periods of highly prolific coral growth in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Younger Dryas and in the western basin during the Early Holocene, whereas a temporary pronounced coral decline during the Younger Dryas was exclusively affecting coral sites in the Alboran Sea. Comparison with environmental and oceanographic data revealed that the proliferation of the Mediterranean corals is linked with enhanced productivity conditions. Moreover, corals thrived in intermediate depths and showed a close relationship with intermediate water mass circulation in the Mediterranean sub-basins. For instance, reduced Levantine Intermediate Water formation hampered coral growth in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during sapropel S1 event as reduced Winter Intermediate Water formation did in the westernmost part of the Mediterranean (Alboran Sea) during the Mid-Holocene. Overall, this study clearly demonstrates the importance to consider region-specific environmental changes as well as species-specific environmental preferences in interpreting coral chronologies. Moreover, it highlights that the occurrence or decline of cold-water corals is not controlled by one key parameter but rather by a complex interplay of various environmental variables.

Table 2: Water stable isotope results and sampling site information of samples taken between 2003 and 2009 on the island of Corsica (western Mediterranean)

The Mediterranean is regarded as a region of intense climate change. To better understand future climate change, this area has been the target of several palaeoclimate studies which also studied stable isotope proxies that are directly linked to the stable isotope composition of water, such as tree rings, tooth enamel or speleothems. For such work, it is also essential to establish an isotope hydrology framework of the region of interest. Surface waters from streams and lakes as well as groundwater from springs on the island of Corsica were sampled between 2003 and 2009 for their oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions. Isotope values from lake waters were enriched in heavier isotopes and define a local evaporation line (LEL). On the other hand, stream and spring waters reflect the isotope composition of local precipitation in the catchment. The intersection of the LEL and the linear fit of the spring and stream waters reflect the mean isotope composition of the annual precipitation (dP) with values of -8.6(±0.2) per mil for d18O and -58(±2) per mil for d2H. This value is also a good indicator of the average isotope composition of the local groundwater in the island. Surface water samples reflect the altitude isotope effect with a value of -0.17(±0.02) per mil per 100 m elevation for oxygen isotopes. At Vizzavona Pass in central Corsica, water samples from two catchments within a lateral distance of only a few hundred metres showed unexpected but systematic differences in their stable isotope composition. At this specific location, the direction of exposure seems to be an important factor. The differences were likely caused by isotopic enrichment during recharge in warm weather conditions in south-exposed valley flanks compared to the opposite, north-exposed valley flanks.

Upper-Pleistocene terrace deposits in Mediterranean climate: geomorphological and source-rock control on mineral and geochemical signatures (Betic Cordillera, SE Spain)

Mineral and chemical composition of alluvial Upper-Pleistocene deposits from the Alto Guadalquivir Basin (SE Spain) were studied as a tool to identify sedimentary and geomorphological processes controlling its formation. Sediments located upstream, in the north-eastern sector of the basin, are rich in dolomite, illite, MgO and KB2BO. Downstream, sediments at the sequence base are enriched in calcite, smectite and CaO, whereas the upper sediments have similar features to those from upstream. Elevated rare-earth elements (REE) values can be related to low carbonate content in the sediments and the increase of silicate material produced and concentrated during soil formation processes in the neighbouring source areas. Two mineralogical and geochemical signatures related to different sediment source areas were identified. Basal levels were deposited during a predominantly erosive initial stage, and are mainly composed of calcite and smectite materials enriched in REE coming from Neogene marls and limestones. Then the deposition of the upper levels of the alluvial sequences, made of dolomite and illitic materials depleted in REE coming from the surrounding Sierra de Cazorla area took place during a less erosive later stage of the fluvial system. Such modification was responsible of the change in the mineralogical and geochemical composition of the alluvial sediments.