The Spanish Ambassador and Samuel Daniel's Vision of the Twelve Goddesses: A New Document [with text]

The performance of Samuel Daniel's masque The Vision of the Twelve Goddesses at court on January 8, 1604 took place in the midst of the preliminary negotiations that would lead to the signing of the Anglo-Spanish peace at Somerset House the following August. Philip III sent a special ambassador to England to congratulate James on his accession, and a series of tussles between Juan de Tassis and his French counterpart ensued. As a recently-discovered document in the Archivo General de Simancas reveals, Anna of Denmark intervened personally to insure that de Tassis, and not the Frenchman, attended the masque. This was a clear signal of James and Anna's peace aims, which de Tassis conveyed to the King of Spain; moreover, he enclosed in his dispatch a text of Daniel's masque which he clearly considered both political intelligence and of interest to the theater-loving Hapsburg monarch. The Simancas text of the Daniel masque is a new version, hitherto unknown, which adds to our knowledge of the circumstances in which the first Stuart masque was performed. Here we present a transcription and annotated translation of both de Tassis' letter and the text of the masque he had compiled for Philip III. (B. C.-E. and M. H.)

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

Avaliação de Projetos de Investimento com Opções Reais: Cálculo de Valor de Opção de Espera de uma Unidade Separadora de Propeno

O tema central deste trabalho é a avaliação do valor da opção real de espera do investimento em uma Unidade Separadora de Propeno, em comparação com uma análise estática de Valor Presente Líquido. Para isso, foi exposta a teoria de opções reais, os processos estocásticos para a estimação das suas principais variáveis de incerteza (preço de produto e insumo), bem como a descrição das ferramentas de simulação a serem utilizadas. Com os instrumentos expostos, pretendemos demonstrar aos responsáveis por projetos de investimento que as incertezas podem ser medidas, levando a maior flexibilidade na tomada de decisões. Os resultados obtidos apontam para o exercício imediato da opção pela abordagem de ativos contingentes e resultados divergentes na análise de ativos contingentes em função do diferencial de preços, em função da taxa de dividendos adotada. A influência dos valores da volatilidade e da taxa de dividendos nos resultados também foi avaliada, levando à conclusão de que o primeiro gera impactos maiores no valor da opção do que o segundo.

Adrien-Marie Legendre (1752-1833) e suas obras em Teoria dos Números

The present thesis is an analysis of Adrien-Marie Legendre s works on Number Theory, with a certain emphasis on his 1830 edition of Theory of Numbers. The role played by these works in their historical context and their influence on the development of Number Theory was investigated. A biographic study of Legendre (1752-1833) was undertaken, in which both his personal relations and his scientific productions were related to certain historical elements of the development of both his homeland, France, and the sciences in general, during the 18th and 19th centuries This study revealed notable characteristics of his personality, as well as his attitudes toward his mathematical contemporaries, especially with regard to his seemingly incessant quarrels with Gauss about the priority of various of their scientific discoveries. This is followed by a systematic study of Lagrange s work on Number Theory, including a comparative reading of certain topics, especially that of his renowned law of quadratic reciprocity, with texts of some of his contemporaries. In this way, the dynamics of the evolution of his thought in relation to his semantics, the organization of his demonstrations and his number theoretical discoveries was delimited. Finally, the impact of Legendre s work on Number Theory on the French mathematical community of the time was investigated. This investigation revealed that he not only made substantial contributions to this branch of Mathematics, but also inspired other mathematicians to advance this science even further. This indeed is a fitting legacy for his Theory of Numbers, the first modern text on Higher Arithmetic, on which he labored half his life, producing various editions. Nevertheless, Legendre also received many posthumous honors, including having his name perpetuated on the Trocadéro face of the Eiffel Tower, which contains a list of 72 eminent scientists, and having a street and an alley in Paris named after him