Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

Adesão de Cabo Verde à Organização Mundial do Comércio - Problemas, Desafios e Perspectivas

A dinâmica de desenvolvimento de Cabo Verde vem sendo uma constante, com ganhos significativos para o país, como atestam a recente adesão à Organização Mundial do Comércio, a graduação a País de Rendimento Médio e a Parceria Especial com a União Europeia. No dia 23 de Julho de 2008, Cabo Verde tornou-se no 153º Estado membro da Organização Mundial do Comércio, sendo que nesta conquista foi o primeiro país Africano e o terceiro País Menos Avançado a conseguir este importante marco via negocial. As vantagens advenientes desta adesão são muitas, sendo de destacar a maior confiança dos investidores no país ao propiciar-se a expansão do mercado e a realização de negócios num ambiente mais seguro e estável, e ainda a possibilidade de melhoria da qualidade de prestação de serviços, uma vez que tudo passou a ser norteado por padrões e regras do comércio internacional. Este trabalho foi elaborado com base em pesquisa bibliográfica e exploratória necessária à construção de um referencial teórico sobre o assunto em questão, tendo como base artigos, livros, revistas e consultas em websites. Finalizando, para avaliação, apresentamos uma componente prática com base num questionário aplicado ao tecido empresarial, com perguntas abertas e de múltipla escolha, onde os inquiridos puderam fazer a sua apreciação relativa ao processo de adesão, e às expectativas advenientes. Os resultados obtidos no final do trabalho mostraram de forma clara e inequívoca a necessidade de Cabo Verde se reorganizar, reforçar o sector privado e a competitividade das empresas, através de, designadamente: melhoria do ambiente fiscal das empresas, fomento e apoio às pequenas e médias empresas. Outrossim, há que dar seguimento as reformas no sector comercial, capacitando e formando quadros nacionais uma vez que estes desempenham um papel essencial no crescimento económico do país e permitem dar maior previsibilidade aos investidores, sendo este último um dos pilares decisivos no requisito do investimento externo. The dynamics of the development of Cape Verde is becoming a constant, with significant gains to the country, as attests the recent adhesion to the World Trade Organization, the graduation to Country of Medium Revenue, as well as the Special Partnership with the European Union. On July 23, 2008, Cape Verde became the 153rd State member of the World Trade Organization, and in this conquest it was the first African country and the third Less Advanced Country to get this mark through negotiable way. The advantages proceeding from this adhesion are many, highlighting the investors' largest trust in the country when propitiating the expansion of the market and the accomplishment of business in a safer and stable atmosphere, and still the possibility of improvement of the quality of installment of services, once everything started being guided by patterns and rules of the international trade. This work was elaborated based on bibliographical and exploratory researches necessary to the construction of the theoretical referential about the subject in question, based on articles, books, magazines and website researches. Concluding, for evaluation, we presented a practical component based on a questionnaire applied to the managerial stuff, with open and multiple choice questions, where the inquired could make his appreciation related to the adhesion process, and the proceeding expectations. The results obtained at the end of the work, showed in a clear way the need of Cape Verde to organize, to reinforce the private sector and the competitiveness of the companies, through, namely: the improvement of the fiscal atmosphere of the companies, fomentation and support of the small and medium companies. Meanwhile, it is important to continue the reforms in the commercial sector, qualifying and forming national staff once they play an essential part in the economic growth of the country and allow giving a larger previsibility to the investors, being this last one, one of the decisive pillars in the requirement of the external investment.

A subsampling approach to estimating the distribution of diversing statistics with application to assessing financial market risks

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution ofstatistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying timeseries in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results weprovide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statisticswith dependent data and present two applications to assessing financialmarket risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk andprovides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizingSafety First portofolio selection.

The effects of structural reforms on productivity and profitability enhancing reallocation: Evidence from Colombia

Estimates for the U.S. suggest that at least in some sectors productivity enhancing reallocationis the dominant factor in accounting for producitivity growth. An open question, particularlyrelevant for developing countries, is whether reallocation is always productivity enhancing. Itmay be that imperfect competition or other barriers to competitive environments imply that thereallocation process is not fully e?cient in these countries. Using a unique plant-levellongitudinal dataset for Colombia for the period 1982-1998, we explore these issues byexamining the interaction between market allocation, and productivity and profitability.Moreover, given the important trade, labor and financial market reforms in Colombia during theearly 1990's, we explore whether and how the contribution of reallocation changed over theperiod of study. Our data permit measurement of plant-level quantities and prices. Takingadvantage of the rich structure of our price data, we propose a sequential mehodology to estimateproductivity and demand shocks at the plant level. First, we estimate total factor productivity(TFP) with plant-level physical output data, where we use downstream demand to instrumentinputs. We then turn to estimating demand shocks and mark-ups with plant-level price data, usingTFP to instrument for output in the inversedemand equation. We examine the evolution of thedistributions of TFP and demand shocks in response to the market reforms in the 1990's. We findthat market reforms are associated with rising overall productivity that is largely driven byreallocation away from low- and towards highproductivity businesses. In addition, we find thatthe allocation of activity across businesses is less driven by demand factors after reforms. Wefind that the increase in aggregate productivity post-reform is entirely accounted for by theimproved allocation of activity.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

Do market conditions affect preferences? Evidence from experimental markets with excess supply and excess demand

We study whether people's preferences in an unbalanced market are affected by whether they are on the excess supply side or the excess demand side of the market. Our analysis is based on the comparison of behavior between two types of experimental gift exchange markets, which vary only with respect to whether first or second movers are on the long side of the market. The direction of market imbalance could influence subjects' motivation, as second movers, workers, might react differently to favorable actions by first movers, firms, in the two cases. Our data show strong deviations from the standard game-theoretic prediction. However, we only find secondary treatment effects. First movers are not more generous when they are in excess supply and second movers do not respond less favorably when they are in excess demand. Competition has only minor psychological effects in our data.

Generic entry into a regulated pharmaceutical market

The aim of this paper is to analyse empirically entry decisions by generic firms intomarkets with tough regulation. Generic drugs might be a key driver of competitionand cost containment in pharmaceutical markets. The dynamics of reforms ofpatents and pricing across drug markets in Spain are useful to identify the impact ofregulations on generic entry. Estimates from a count data model using a panel of 86active ingredients during the 1999 2005 period show that the drivers of genericentry in markets with price regulations are similar to less regulated markets: genericfirms entries are positively affected by the market size and time trend, and negativelyaffected by the number of incumbent laboratories and the number of substitutesactive ingredients. We also find that contrary to what policy makers expected, thesystem of reference pricing restrains considerably the generic entry. Short run brandname drug price reductions are obtained by governments at the cost of long runbenefits from fostering generic entry and post-patent competition into the markets.

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

The impact of generic reference pricing interventions in the statin market

The objective of this study was to evaluate the intended and unintended impact on pharmaceutical use and sales of three public financing reforms applied to the prescription of statins: a Spanish generic reference pricing (RP) system for lovastatin and simvastatin, and two competing policies introduced by the Andalusian Public Health Service (APHS) for all statins, first a maximum consumer price (MCP) and then a so called quality prescribing incentive for general practitioners (MCP plus PI).This study is designed as an observational, retrospective, interrupted time series analysis with comparison series (APHS and the rest of Spain) of 46 monthly drug use and sales ratios from January 2001 to October 2004 for each active ingredient in the group of statins.RP has been effective at reducing the volume of sales growth of the off-patent statins, yet its overall impact on sales of all statins has been relatively modest. The quantity and volume of sales impact heavily depends on regulatory RP details such as when the system is introduced, how often it is updated, and how the reference price is calculated.

Incentives and pharmaceutical reimbursement reforms in Spain

The aim of this paper is to assess whether cost-containment has beenaffected by recent pharmaceutical reimbursement reforms that have beenintroduced in the Spanish health care system over the period 1996-2002,under the conservative Popular Party government. Four main reimbursementpolicies can be observed in the Spanish pharmaceutical market after1996, each of them largely unintegrated with the other three. First, asecond supplementary negative list of excluded pharmaceutical productswas introduced in 1998. Second, a reference pricing system wasintroduced in December 2000, with annual updating and enlargement.Third, the pharmacies payment system has moved from the traditionalset margin on the consumer price to a margin that varies according tothe consumer price of the product, the generic status of the product,and the volume of sales by pharmacies. And fourth, general agreementsbetween the government and the industry have been reached with costcontainment objectives. In the final section of this paper we presentan overall assessment of the impact of these pharmaceuticalreimbursement policies on the behaviour of the agents in thepharmaceutical market.

Protective or counter-productive? Labor market institutions and the effect of immigration on EU natives

We estimate the effect of immigrant flows on native employment in WesternEurope, and then ask whether the employment consequences of immigrationvary with institutions that affect labor market flexibility. Reducedflexibility may protect natives from immigrant competition in the nearterm, but our theoretical framework suggests that reduced flexibility islikely to increase the negative impact of immigration on equilibriumemployment. In models without interactions, OLS estimates for a panel ofEuropean countries in the 1980s and 1990s show small, mostly negativeimmigration effects. To reduce bias from the possible endogeneity ofimmigration flows, we use the fact that many immigrants arriving after1991 were refugees from the Balkan wars. An IV strategy based onvariation in the number of immigrants from former Yugoslavia generateslarger though mostly insignificant negative estimates. We then estimatemodels allowing interactions between the employment response toimmigration and institutional characteristics including business entrycosts. These results, limited to the sample of native men, generallysuggest that reduced flexibility increases the negative impact ofimmigration. Many of the estimated interaction terms are significant,and imply a significant negative effect on employment in countrieswith restrictive institutions.

Understanding and Fighting the Medicine Counterfeit Market

Medicine counterfeiting is a serious worldwide issue, involving networks of manufacture and distribution that are an integral part of industrialized organized crime. Despite the potentially devastating health repercussions involved, legal sanctions are often inappropriate or simply not applied. The difficulty in agreeing on a definition of counterfeiting, the huge profits made by the counterfeiters and the complexity of the market are the other main reasons for the extent of the phenomenon. Above all, international cooperation is needed to thwart the spread of counterfeiting. Moreover effort is urgently required on the legal, enforcement and scientific levels. Pharmaceutical companies and agencies have developed measures to protect the medicines and allow fast and reliable analysis of the suspect products. Several means, essentially based on chromatography and spectroscopy, are now at the disposal of the analysts to enable the distinction between genuine and counterfeit products. However the determination of the components and the use of analytical data for forensic purposes still constitute a challenge. The aim of this review article is therefore to point out the intricacy of medicine counterfeiting so that a better understanding can provide solutions to fight more efficiently against it.

Transnational authority in the knowledge-based economy: Who sets the standards of ICT training and certification?

This article examines the extent and limits of nonstate forms of authority in international relations. It analyzes how the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure for the tradability of services in a global knowledge-based economy relies on informal regulatory practices for the adjustment of ICT-related skills. By focusing on the challenge that highly volatile and short-lived cycles of demands for this type of knowledge pose for ensuring the right qualification of the labor force, the article explores how companies and associations provide training and certification programs as part of a growing market for educational services setting their own standards. The existing literature on non-conventional forms of authority in the global political economy has emphasized that the consent of actors, subject to informal rules and some form of state support, remains crucial for the effectiveness of those new forms of power. However, analyses based on a limited sample of actors tend toward a narrow understanding of the issues concerned and fail to fully explore the differentiated space in which non state authority is emerging. This article develops a three-dimensional analytical framework that brings together the scope of the issues involved, the range of nonstate actors concerned, and the spatial scope of their authority. The empirical findings highlight the limits of these new forms of nonstate authority and shed light on the role of the state and international governmental organizations in this new context.

Changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after withdrawal of cefepime from the market: an interrupted time series analysis

Background and objective: Cefepime was one of the most used broad-spectrum antibiotics in Swiss public acute care hospitals. The drug was withdrawn from market in January 2007, and then replaced by a generic since October 2007. The goal of the study was to evaluate changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after the withdrawal of the cefepime original product. Design: A generalized regression-based interrupted time series model incorporating autocorrelated errors assessed how much the withdrawal changed the monthly use of other broad-spectrum antibiotics (ceftazidime, imipenem/cilastin, meropenem, piperacillin/ tazobactam) in defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days from January 2004 to December 2008 [1, 2]. Setting: 10 Swiss public acute care hospitals (7 with\200 beds, 3 with 200-500 beds). Nine hospitals (group A) had a shortage of cefepime and 1 hospital had no shortage thanks to importation of cefepime from abroad. Main outcome measures: Underlying trend of use before the withdrawal, and changes in the level and in the trend of use after the withdrawal. Results: Before the withdrawal, the average estimated underlying trend (coefficient b1) for cefepime was decreasing by -0.047 (95% CI -0.086, -0.009) DDD/100 bed-days per month and was significant in three hospitals (group A, P\0.01). Cefepime withdrawal was associated with a significant increase in level of use (b2) of piperacillin/tazobactam and imipenem/cilastin in, respectively, one and five hospitals from group A. After the withdrawal, the average estimated trend (b3) was greatest for piperacillin/tazobactam (+0.043 DDD/100 bed-days per month; 95% CI -0.001, 0.089) and was significant in four hospitals from group A (P\0.05). The hospital without drug shortage showed no significant change in the trend and the level of use. The hypothesis of seasonality was rejected in all hospitals. Conclusions: The decreased use of cefepime already observed before its withdrawal from the market could be explained by pre-existing difficulty in drug supply. The withdrawal of cefepime resulted in change in level for piperacillin/tazobactam and imipenem/cilastin. Moreover, an increase in trend was found for piperacillin/tazobactam thereafter. As these changes generally occur at the price of lower bacterial susceptibility, a manufacturers' commitment to avoid shortages in the supply of their products would be important. As perspectives, we will measure the impact of the changes in cost and sensitivity rates of these antibiotics.

The work of Spanish men. A quantitative analysis based on census data, 1900-1970

This paper presents a historical examination of employment in old age in Spain, in order to characterize this labour segment and identify and analyse its specific problems. One of these problems is the life-cycle deskilling process, already shown for certain national cases. This study explores whether this hypothesis also holds in Spain. The perspective used is essentially quantitative, as our analysis is based on the age-profession tables in Spanish population censuses from 1900 to 1970.