John Birks: Pioneer in quantitative palaeoecology

We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data.

Calibration of time of flight detectors using laser-driven neutron source

Calibration of three scintillators (EJ232Q, BC422Q, and EJ410) in a time-of-flight arrangement using a laser drive-neutron source is presented. The three plastic scintillator detectors were calibrated with gamma insensitive bubble detector spectrometers, which were absolutely calibrated over a wide range of neutron energies ranging from sub-MeV to 20 MeV. A typical set of data obtained simultaneously by the detectors is shown, measuring the neutron spectrum emitted from a petawatt laser irradiated thin foil.

Slow Release Drug Dissolution Profile Prediction in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing: a Multivariate and Machine Learning Approach

Slow release drugs must be manufactured to meet target specifications with respect to dissolution curve profiles. In this paper we consider the problem of identifying the drivers of dissolution curve variability of a drug from historical manufacturing data. Several data sources are considered: raw material parameters, coating data, loss on drying and pellet size statistics. The methodology employed is to develop predictive models using LASSO, a powerful machine learning algorithm for regression with high-dimensional datasets. LASSO provides sparse solutions facilitating the identification of the most important causes of variability in the drug fabrication process. The proposed methodology is illustrated using manufacturing data for a slow release drug.

Refinements to the IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon calibration curves

Radiocarbon dating forms the basis for many Late Quaternary chronologies but, due to the fluctuations in atmospheric levels of 14C, radiocarbon dates require calibration before they can be compared and/or combined with date estimates derived from other dating techniques. New and recently published 14C measurements on independently dated material, such as speleothems, foraminifera, coral and tree-rings, allow the IntCal Working Group to make new estimates of the radiocarbon calibration curves and provide the opportunity to evaluate the offsets observed between records. In addition floating tree-ring 14C chronologies, which are not absolutely dendro-dated, provide evidence for the magnitude of atmospheric 14C variations in different time periods which can be used to refine the calibration curves.

The determination of optimal processing conditions for PLA and PLA/CaCO3 in twin screw extrusion using DoE and multivariate analysis

Biodegradable polymers, such as PLA (Polylactide), come from renewable resources like corn starch and if disposed of correctly, degrade and become harmless to the ecosystem making them attractive alternatives to petroleum based polymers. PLA in particular is used in a variety of applications including medical devices, food packaging and waste disposal packaging. However, the industry faces challenges in melt processing of PLA due to its poor thermal stability which is influenced by processing temperatures and shearing.
Identification and control of suitable processing conditions is extremely challenging, usually relying on trial and error, and often sensitive to batch to batch variations. Off-line assessment in a lab environment can result in high scrap rates, long lead times and lengthy and expensive process development. Scrap rates are typically in the region of 25-30% for medical grade PLA costing between €2000-€5000/kg.
Additives are used to enhance material properties such as mechanical properties and may also have a therapeutic role in the case of bioresorbable medical devices, for example the release of calcium from orthopaedic implants such as fixation screws promotes healing. Additives can also reduce the costs involved as less of the polymer resin is required.
This study investigates the scope for monitoring, modelling and optimising processing conditions for twin screw extrusion of PLA and PLA w/calcium carbonate to achieve desired material properties. A DAQ system has been constructed to gather data from a bespoke measurement die comprising melt temperature; pressure drop along the length of the die; and UV-Vis spectral data which is shown to correlate to filler dispersion. Trials were carried out under a range of processing conditions using a Design of Experiments approach and samples were tested for mechanical properties, degradation rate and the release rate of calcium. Relationships between recorded process data and material characterisation results are explored.

Calibration of BAS-TR image plate response to high energy (3-300 MeV) carbon ions

The paper presents the calibration of Fuji BAS-TR image plate (IP) response to high energy carbon ions of different charge states by employing an intense laser-driven ion source, which allowed access to carbon energies up to 270 MeV. The calibration method consists of employing a Thomson parabola spectrometer to separate and spectrally resolve different ion species, and a slotted CR-39 solid state detector overlayed onto an image plate for an absolute calibration of the IP signal. An empirical response function was obtained which can be reasonably extrapolated to higher ion energies. The experimental data also show that the IP response is independent of ion charge states.

An age-activity calibration for old low-mass stars

Low-mass stars are highly interesting targets: we are able to detect planets in their habitable zones, and upcoming searches for biomarkers in exoplanet atmospheres will focus on low-mass star systems due to their ubiquity and proximity. We aim to develop an age-activity calibration for old low-mass stars, using wide binary systems consisting of an M or K dwarf and a white dwarf. The age of the system is determined by the WD cooling time plus its progenitor lifetime, yielding reliable ages in the regime >1 Gyr. For an exploratory sample of 7 systems where we have already derived ages, we propose to perform Chandra ACIS-S observations to determine the X-ray luminosities of the M dwarfs and correlate their stellar activity with age. We ask for a total observing time of 110 ks.

Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon (Portugal)

Ria deAveiro is a very complex shallow water coastal lagoon located on the northwest of Portugal. Important issues would be left unanswered without a good understanding of hydrodynamic and transport processes occurring in the lagoon. Calibration and validation of hydrodynamic, salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro lagoon are presented. The calibration of the hydrodynamic model was performed adjusting the bottom friction coefficient, through the comparison between measured and predicted time series of sea surface elevation for 22 stations. Harmonic analysis was performed in order to evaluate the model's accuracy. To validate the hydrodynamic model measured and predicted SSE values were compared for 11 stations, as well as main flow direction velocities for 10 stations. The salt and heat transport models were calibrated comparing measured and predicted time series of salinity and water temperature for 7 stations, and the RMS of the difference between the series was determined. These models were validated comparing the model results with an independent field data set. The hydrodynamic and the salt and heat transport models for Ria de Aveiro were successfully calibrated and validated. They reproduce accurately the barotropic flows and can therefore adequately represent the salt and heat transport and the heat transfer processes occurring in Ria deAveiro.

Development of infrared spectroscopy for assessing bacterial quality in foods

Rapid and specific detection of foodborne bacteria that can cause food spoilage or illness associated to its consumption is an increasingly important task in food industry. Bacterial detection, identification, and classification are generally performed using traditional methods based on biochemical or serological tests and the molecular methods based on DNA or RNA fingerprints. However, these methodologies are expensive, time consuming and laborious. Infrared spectroscopy is a reliable, rapid, and economic technique which could be explored as a tool for bacterial analysis in the food industry. In this thesis it was evaluated the potential of IR spectroscopy to study the bacterial quality of foods. In Chapter 2, it was developed a calibration model that successfully allowed to predict the bacterial concentration of naturally contaminated cooked ham samples kept at refrigeration temperature during 8 days. In this part, it was developed the methodology that allowed the best reproducibility of spectra from bacteria colonies with minimal sample preparation, which was used in the subsequent work. Several attempts trying different resolutions and number of scans in the IR were made. A spectral resolution of 4 cm-1, with 32 scans were the settings that allowed the best results. Subsequently, in Chapter 3, it was made an attempt to identify 22 different foodborne bacterial genera/species using IR spectroscopy coupled with multivariate analysis. The principal component analysis, used as an exploratory technique, allowed to form distinct groups, each one corresponding to a different genus, in most of the cases. Then, a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to further analyse the group formation and the possibility of distinction between species of the same bacterial genus. It was observed that IR spectroscopy not only is suitable to the distinction of the different genera, but also to differentiate species of the same genus, with the simultaneous use of principal component analysis and cluster analysis techniques. The utilization of IR spectroscopy and multivariate statistical analysis were also investigated in Chapter 4, in order to confirm the presence of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. isolated from contaminated foods, after growth in selective medium. This would allow to substitute the traditional biochemical and serological methods that are used to confirm these pathogens and that delay the obtainment of the results up to 2 days. The obtained results allowed the distinction of 3 different Listeria species and the distinction of Salmonella spp. from other bacteria that can be mistaken with them. Finally, in chapter 5, high pressure processing, an emerging methodology that permits to produce microbiologically safe foods and extend their shelf-life, was applied to 12 foodborne bacteria to determine their resistance and the effects of pressure in cells. A treatment of 300 MPa, during 15 minutes at room temperature was applied. Gram-negative bacteria were inactivated to undetectable levels and Gram-positive showed different resistances. Bacillus cereus and Staphylococcus aureus decreased only 2 logs and Listeria innocua decreased about 5 logs. IR spectroscopy was performed in bacterial colonies before and after HPP in order to investigate the alterations of the cellular compounds. It was found that high pressure alters bands assigned to some cellular components as proteins, lipids, oligopolysaccharides, phosphate groups from the cell wall and nucleic acids, suggesting disruption of the cell envelopes. In this work, bacterial quantification and classification, as well as assessment of cellular compounds modification with high pressure processing were successfully performed. Taking this into account, it was showed that IR spectroscopy is a very promising technique to analyse bacteria in a simple and inexpensive manner.

Three-way multivariate methods in the evaluation of patterns of stability and change in the eurozone countries

Tese de doutoramento, Métodos Quantitativos Aplicados à Economia e à Gestão, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

Electronic Journal of Applied Multivariate Statistics

The ecological sciences have experienced immense growth over the course of this century, and chances are that they will continue to grow well on into the next millennium. There are some good reasons for this – ecology encompasses some of the most pressing concerns facing humanity. With recent advances in data collection technology and ambitious field research, ecologists are increasingly calling upon multivariate statistics to explore and test for patterns in their data. The goal of FISH 560 (Applied Multivariate Statistics for Ecologists) at the University of Washington is to introduce graduate students to the multivariate statistical techniques necessary to carry out sophisticated analyses and to critically evaluate scientific papers using these approaches. It is a practical, hands-on course emphasizing the analysis and interpretation of multivariate analysis, and covers the majority of approaches in common use by ecologists. To celebrate the hard work of past students, I am pleased to announce the creation of the Electronic Journal of Applied Multivariate Statistics (EJAMS). Each year, students in FISH 560 are required to write a final paper consisting of a statistical analysis of their own multivariate data set. These papers are submitted to EJAMS at the end of quarter and are peer reviewed by two other class members. A decision on publication is based on the reviewers’ recommendations and my own reading the paper. In closing, there is a need for the rapid dissemination of ecological research using multivariate statistics at the University of Washington. EJAMS is committed to this challenge.

A Community-Level, Mesoscale Analysis of Fish Assemblage Structure in Shoreline Habitats of a Large River Using Multivariate Regression Trees.

The mesoscale (100–102 m) of river habitats has been identified as the scale that simultaneously offers insights into ecological structure and falls within the practical bounds of river management. Mesoscale habitat (mesohabitat) classifications for relatively large rivers, however, are underdeveloped compared with those produced for smaller streams. Approaches to habitat modelling have traditionally focused on individual species or proceeded on a species-by-species basis. This is particularly problematic in larger rivers where the effects of biological interactions are more complex and intense. Community-level approaches can rapidly model many species simultaneously, thereby integrating the effects of biological interactions while providing information on the relative importance of environmental variables in structuring the community. One such community-level approach, multivariate regression trees, was applied in order to determine the relative influences of abiotic factors on fish assemblages within shoreline mesohabitats of San Pedro River, Chile, and to define reference communities prior to the planned construction of a hydroelectric power plant. Flow depth, bank materials and the availability of riparian and instream cover, including woody debris, were the main variables driving differences between the assemblages. Species strongly indicative of distinctive mesohabitat types included the endemic Galaxias platei. Among other outcomes, the results provide information on the impact of non-native salmonids on river-dwelling Galaxias platei, suggesting a degree of habitat segregation between these taxa based on flow depth. The results support the use of the mesohabitat concept in large, relatively pristine river systems, and they represent a basis for assessing the impact of any future hydroelectric power plant construction and operation. By combing community classifications with simple sets of environmental rules, the multivariate regression trees produced can be used to predict the community structure of any mesohabitat along the reach.

Regional collaborations and indigenous innovation capabilities in China: A multivariate method for the analysis of regional innovation systems

In this study we analyse the emerging patterns of regional collaboration for innovation projects in China, using official government statistics of 30 Chinese regions. We propose the use of Ordinal Multidimensional Scaling and Cluster analysis as a robust method to study regional innovation systems. Our results show that regional collaborations amongst organisations can be categorised by means of eight dimensions: public versus private organisational mindset; public versus private resources; innovation capacity versus available infrastructures; innovation input (allocated resources) versus innovation output; knowledge production versus knowledge dissemination; and collaborative capacity versus collaboration output. Collaborations which are aimed to generate innovation fell into 4 categories, those related to highly specialised public research institutions, public universities, private firms and governmental intervention. By comparing the representative cases of regions in terms of these four innovation actors, we propose policy measures for improving regional innovation collaboration within China.