Estimation utilisant les polynômes de Bernstein

Ce mémoire porte sur la présentation des estimateurs de Bernstein qui sont des alternatives récentes aux différents estimateurs classiques de fonctions de répartition et de densité. Plus précisément, nous étudions leurs différentes propriétés et les comparons à celles de la fonction de répartition empirique et à celles de l'estimateur par la méthode du noyau. Nous déterminons une expression asymptotique des deux premiers moments de l'estimateur de Bernstein pour la fonction de répartition. Comme pour les estimateurs classiques, nous montrons que cet estimateur vérifie la propriété de Chung-Smirnov sous certaines conditions. Nous montrons ensuite que l'estimateur de Bernstein est meilleur que la fonction de répartition empirique en terme d'erreur quadratique moyenne. En s'intéressant au comportement asymptotique des estimateurs de Bernstein, pour un choix convenable du degré du polynôme, nous montrons que ces estimateurs sont asymptotiquement normaux. Des études numériques sur quelques distributions classiques nous permettent de confirmer que les estimateurs de Bernstein peuvent être préférables aux estimateurs classiques.

Essays on bootstrap in econometrics

Ma thèse est composée de trois essais sur l'inférence par le bootstrap à la fois dans les modèles de données de panel et les modèles à grands nombres de variables instrumentales #VI# dont un grand nombre peut être faible. La théorie asymptotique n'étant pas toujours une bonne approximation de la distribution d'échantillonnage des estimateurs et statistiques de tests, je considère le bootstrap comme une alternative. Ces essais tentent d'étudier la validité asymptotique des procédures bootstrap existantes et quand invalides, proposent de nouvelles méthodes bootstrap valides. Le premier chapitre #co-écrit avec Sílvia Gonçalves# étudie la validité du bootstrap pour l'inférence dans un modèle de panel de données linéaire, dynamique et stationnaire à effets fixes. Nous considérons trois méthodes bootstrap: le recursive-design bootstrap, le fixed-design bootstrap et le pairs bootstrap. Ces méthodes sont des généralisations naturelles au contexte des panels des méthodes bootstrap considérées par Gonçalves et Kilian #2004# dans les modèles autorégressifs en séries temporelles. Nous montrons que l'estimateur MCO obtenu par le recursive-design bootstrap contient un terme intégré qui imite le biais de l'estimateur original. Ceci est en contraste avec le fixed-design bootstrap et le pairs bootstrap dont les distributions sont incorrectement centrées à zéro. Cependant, le recursive-design bootstrap et le pairs bootstrap sont asymptotiquement valides quand ils sont appliqués à l'estimateur corrigé du biais, contrairement au fixed-design bootstrap. Dans les simulations, le recursive-design bootstrap est la méthode qui produit les meilleurs résultats. Le deuxième chapitre étend les résultats du pairs bootstrap aux modèles de panel non linéaires dynamiques avec des effets fixes. Ces modèles sont souvent estimés par l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance #EMV# qui souffre également d'un biais. Récemment, Dhaene et Johmans #2014# ont proposé la méthode d'estimation split-jackknife. Bien que ces estimateurs ont des approximations asymptotiques normales centrées sur le vrai paramètre, de sérieuses distorsions demeurent à échantillons finis. Dhaene et Johmans #2014# ont proposé le pairs bootstrap comme alternative dans ce contexte sans aucune justification théorique. Pour combler cette lacune, je montre que cette méthode est asymptotiquement valide lorsqu'elle est utilisée pour estimer la distribution de l'estimateur split-jackknife bien qu'incapable d'estimer la distribution de l'EMV. Des simulations Monte Carlo montrent que les intervalles de confiance bootstrap basés sur l'estimateur split-jackknife aident grandement à réduire les distorsions liées à l'approximation normale en échantillons finis. En outre, j'applique cette méthode bootstrap à un modèle de participation des femmes au marché du travail pour construire des intervalles de confiance valides. Dans le dernier chapitre #co-écrit avec Wenjie Wang#, nous étudions la validité asymptotique des procédures bootstrap pour les modèles à grands nombres de variables instrumentales #VI# dont un grand nombre peu être faible. Nous montrons analytiquement qu'un bootstrap standard basé sur les résidus et le bootstrap restreint et efficace #RE# de Davidson et MacKinnon #2008, 2010, 2014# ne peuvent pas estimer la distribution limite de l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance à information limitée #EMVIL#. La raison principale est qu'ils ne parviennent pas à bien imiter le paramètre qui caractérise l'intensité de l'identification dans l'échantillon. Par conséquent, nous proposons une méthode bootstrap modifiée qui estime de facon convergente cette distribution limite. Nos simulations montrent que la méthode bootstrap modifiée réduit considérablement les distorsions des tests asymptotiques de type Wald #$t$# dans les échantillons finis, en particulier lorsque le degré d'endogénéité est élevé.

A Study on the Transport and Distribution of Atmospheric Aerosols and its Influence on Regional Meteorological Parameters over the Indian Subcontinent

This doctoral thesis addresses the growing concern about the significant changes in the climatic and weather patterns due to the aerosol loading that have taken place in the Indo Gangetic Plain(IGP)which includes most of the Northern Indian region. The study region comprises of major industrial cities in India (New Delhi, Kanpur, Allahabad, Jamshedpur and Kolkata). Northern and central parts of India are one of the most thickly populated areas in the world and have the most intensely farmed areas. Rapid increase in population and urbanization has resulted in an abrupt increase in aerosol concentrations in recent years. The IGP has a major source of coal; therefore most of the industries including numerous thermal power plants that run on coal are located around this region. They inject copious amount of aerosols into the atmosphere. Moreover, the transport of dust aerosols from arid locations is prevalent during the dry months which increase the aerosol loading in theatmosphere. The topography of the place is also ideal for the congregation of aerosols. It is bounded by the Himalayas in the north, Thar Desert in the west, the Vindhyan range in the south and Brahmaputra ridge in the east. During the non‐monsoon months (October to May) the weather in the location is dry with very little rainfall. Surface winds are weak during most of the time in this dry season. The aerosols that reach the location by means of long distance transport and from regional sources get accumulated under these favourable conditions. The increase in aerosol concentration due to the complex combination of aerosol transport and anthropogenic factors mixed with the contribution from the natural sources alters the optical properties and the life time of clouds in the region. The associated perturbations in radiative balance have a significant impact on the meteorological parameters and this in turn determines the precipitation forming process. Therefore, any change in weather which disturbs the normal hydrological pattern is alarming in the socio‐economic point of view. Hence, the main focus of this work is to determine the variation in transport and distribution of aerosols in the region and to understand the interaction of these aerosols with meteorological parameters and cloud properties.

Ecotoxic Metal Records and its Degree of Geochemical Symphony in the Niche of Cochin Estuarine System- A Theraptic Perspective

The heavy metal contamination in the environment may lead to circumstances like bioaccumulation and inturn biomagnification. Hence cheaper and effective technologies are needed to protect the precious natural resources and biological lives. A suitable technique is the one which meets the technical and environmental criteria for dealing with a particular remediation problem and should be site-specific due to spatial and climatic variations and it may not economically feasible everywhere. The search for newer technologies for the environmental therapy, involving the removal of toxic metals from wastewaters has directed attention to adsorption, based on metal binding capacities of various adsorbent materials. Therefore, the present study aim to identify and evaluate the most current mathematical formulations describing sorption processes. Although vast amount of research has been carried out in the area of metal removal by adsorption process using activated carbon few specific research data are available in different scientific institutions. The present work highlights the seasonal and spatial variations in the distribution of some selected heavy metals among various geochemical phases of Cochin Estuarine system and also looked into an environmental theraptic/remedial approach by adsorption technique using activated charcoal and chitosan, to reduce and thereby controlling metallic pollution. The thesis has been addressed in seven chapters with further subdivisions. The first chapter is introductory, stating the necessity of reducing or preventing water pollution due to the hazardous impact on environment and health of living organisms and drawing it from a careful review of literature relevant to the present study. It provides a constricted description about the study area, geology, and general hydrology and also bears the major objectives and scope of the present study.

Distribution, extracellular virulence factors and antibiogram of motile aeromonads in fresh water ornamental fishes and immune response of Cyprinus carpio against Aeromonas hydrophila infection

The thesis deals with the prevalence and distribution of motile aeromonads in selected ornamental fishes. The presence of motile aeromonads in ornamental fishes and associated carriage water is well documented. Though aeromonads are a part of autochthonous flora of natural waters, disease outbreak occurs as a result of environmental stress on the cultured species and virulence of the pathogens. While ornamental aquaculture in many parts of the world is highly organized and practiced scientifically, it is highly unorganized in India. The culture ponds/tanks are often maintained in very poor manner and the fishes are subjected to high degree of stress during transportation from the production facility to retail vendors. The situation is no better at retail outlets, where fishes are maintained in crowded condition without proper aeration or food. All these could result in high prevalence of diseases caused by motile aeromonads. No systematic study has been carried out to understand the prevalence of motile aeromonads in ornamental fishes and carriage water . It also gives an account of the production of extracellular virulence factors and the antibiogram of the different species of motile aeromonads isolated. The growth characteristics and virulence potential of a representative strain of Aeromonas hydrophila is also studied. The nucleotide sequencing of the strain was carried out and sequences deposited in Genbank. Survival and immune response of Cyprinus carpio under different stress conditions and on probiotic treatment with Bacillus NL110, when challenged with A. hydrophila is also dealt within this thesis.

A generalization of Student’s t-distribution from the viewpoint of special functions

Student’s t-distribution has found various applications in mathematical statistics. One of the main properties of the t-distribution is to converge to the normal distribution as the number of samples tends to infinity. In this paper, by using a Cauchy integral we introduce a generalization of the t-distribution function with four free parameters and show that it converges to the normal distribution again. We provide a comprehensive treatment of mathematical properties of this new distribution. Moreover, since the Fisher F-distribution has a close relationship with the t-distribution, we also introduce a generalization of the F-distribution and prove that it converges to the chi-square distribution as the number of samples tends to infinity. Finally some particular sub-cases of these distributions are considered.

Meaning of the λ parameter of skew–normal and log–skew normal distributions in fluid geochemistry

The literature related to skew–normal distributions has grown rapidly in recent years but at the moment few applications concern the description of natural phenomena with this type of probability models, as well as the interpretation of their parameters. The skew–normal distributions family represents an extension of the normal family to which a parameter (λ) has been added to regulate the skewness. The development of this theoretical field has followed the general tendency in Statistics towards more flexible methods to represent features of the data, as adequately as possible, and to reduce unrealistic assumptions as the normality that underlies most methods of univariate and multivariate analysis. In this paper an investigation on the shape of the frequency distribution of the logratio ln(Cl−/Na+) whose components are related to waters composition for 26 wells, has been performed. Samples have been collected around the active center of Vulcano island (Aeolian archipelago, southern Italy) from 1977 up to now at time intervals of about six months. Data of the logratio have been tentatively modeled by evaluating the performance of the skew–normal model for each well. Values of the λ parameter have been compared by considering temperature and spatial position of the sampling points. Preliminary results indicate that changes in λ values can be related to the nature of environmental processes affecting the data

Presión arterial en preescolares de la localidad de Usaquén en Bogotá

Introducción: La hipertensión arterial es un problema de salud pública tanto en países industrializados como en vía de desarrollo. Su prevalencia en la infancia viene en aumento por lo que es relevante determinarla en niños preescolares a nivel local. Objetivo: Determinar la prevalencia de hipertensión arterial en niños de tres a cinco años de una cohorte de 14 hogares infantiles del ICBF de la localidad de Usaquén en Bogotá. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio de corte transversal analítico, utilizando la base de datos de un ensayo aleatorizado y controlado del año 200913, y se evaluaron las cifras de tensión arterial de acuerdo a sexo, edad, talla y su correlación con el IMC con un nivel de confianza del 95% y precisión del 1%. Se calcularon las medias, desviaciones estándar, percentiles y prevalencia. Resultados: Se obtuvo una muestra de 1035 casos, encontrándose una prevalencia de 4,5% de HTA sistólica, 10,4% de diastólica, ambas en estadio I; teniendo en cuenta tanto sistólica como diastólica, fue de 11,6% en estadio I. Se determinaron los valores de presión arterial sistólica y diastólica en cuartiles de acuerdo a edad, sexo y talla. El coeficiente de correlación entre el IMC y los niveles de presión arterial sistólica y diastólica fueron de 0.0992 y 0.0362 respectivamente. Conclusión: La prevalencia de HTA general fue de 11,6%, predominando la diastólica en estadio I en niños preescolares. No se encontró correlación entre el IMC y las cifras de tensión arterial sistólica y diastólica.

Plasmodium vivax lineages: geographical distribution, tandem repeat polymorphism, and phylogenetic relationship

Background: Multi-drug resistance and severe/ complicated cases are the emerging phenotypes of vivax malaria, which may deteriorate current anti-malarial control measures. The emergence of these phenotypes could be associated with either of the two Plasmodium vivax lineages. The two lineages had been categorized as Old World and New World, based on geographical sub-division and genetic and phenotypical markers. This study revisited the lineage hypothesis of P. vivax by typing the distribution of lineages among global isolates and evaluated their genetic relatedness using a panel of new mini-satellite markers. Methods: 18S SSU rRNA S-type gene was amplified from 420 Plasmodium vivax field isolates collected from different geographical regions of India, Thailand and Colombia as well as four strains each of P. vivax originating from Nicaragua, Panama, Thailand (Pak Chang), and Vietnam (ONG). A mini-satellite marker panel was then developed to understand the population genetic parameters and tested on a sample subset of both lineages. Results: 18S SSU rRNA S-type gene typing revealed the distribution of both lineages (Old World and New World) in all geographical regions. However, distribution of Plasmodium vivax lineages was highly variable in every geographical region. The lack of geographical sub-division between lineages suggests that both lineages are globally distributed. Ten mini-satellites were scanned from the P. vivax genome sequence; these tandem repeats were located in eight of the chromosomes. Mini-satellites revealed substantial allelic diversity (7-21, AE = 14.6 +/- 2.0) and heterozygosity (He = 0.697-0.924, AE = 0.857 +/- 0.033) per locus. Mini-satellite comparison between the two lineages revealed high but similar pattern of genetic diversity, allele frequency, and high degree of allele sharing. A Neighbour-Joining phylogenetic tree derived from genetic distance data obtained from ten mini-satellites also placed both lineages together in every cluster. Conclusions: The global lineage distribution, lack of genetic distance, similar pattern of genetic diversity, and allele sharing strongly suggested that both lineages are a single species and thus new emerging phenotypes associated with vivax malaria could not be clearly classified as belonging to a particular lineage on basis of their geographical origin.

Estudio comparativo sobre la influencia del adulto en la actividad cognitiva del niño trisómico-niño normal entre 11 meses a 18 meses.

Conocer las bases y organización de la estructura intelectual defectuosa, comparativamente con la normal. Conocer cúal es la incidencia del adulto en dicha construcción, acentuando su papel en la elaboración de la deficiencia. 3 bebés normales observados desde los 8 meses hasta los 18 meses y 3 bebés con síndrome de Down, observados desde la edad madurativa equivalente a los 11 meses. Plantea un marco teórico basado en un punto de vista constructivista e interaccionista centrado en el eje inteligencia-acción-interacción. El marco explicativo respecto al desarrollo defectuoso es el de la teoría de la deficiencia, y el del desarrollo normal se basa en la teoría piagetiana. Plantea dos hipótesis de trabajo. Elige una muestra compuesta por seis casos de manera no aleatoria. Obtiene los datos a partir de la observación sistematizada y longitudinal de los dos grupos de la muestra (normales y trisómicos). Registra su actividad espontánea resultante de jugar con material cerrado, durante 10 minutos y en presencia de dos adultos. Realiza un análisis de datos cualitativo y cuantitativo a tres niveles : intra-sujeto, intra-grupo e inter-grupo. Observación sistemática (funcional, natural, longitudinal, comparativa). Material de juego de tipo no figurativo, favorecedor de actividades lógicas. Análisis cualitativo: codificación y categorización del material y acciones. Análisis cuantitativo: coeficiente de consistencia intra-observador de Knippendorf. Análisis log-linear mediante el paquete estadístico BMDP/4F. Concordancias entre los dos grupos: necesidad del feed-back acción niño-modelo, adulto- respuesta niño. Necesidad de la adecuación del modelo adulto a la actividad del niño. Necesidad de la intersubjetividad adulto-niño. Diferencias entre grupos respecto a: la generación del proyecto de acción y la significación conferida así como a la intersubjetividad, mostrando mayor dificultad el grupo trisómico. La regulación mutua, necesaria pero difícilmente observado en el grupo de trisómicos. La intervención del adulto en la actividad cognitiva del niño es positiva o negativa en función de la existencia o no de un proyecto de acción infantil, significación compartida, intersubjetividad, adecuación mutua adulto-niño y el feed-back entre ellos.

Effect of type and timing of oil supplements to sows during pregnancy on the growth performance and endocrine profile of low and normal birth weight offspring

Eighty-eight multiparous sows were used to evaluate whether type and timing of oil supplementation during gestation influences the incidence of low birth weight (LBW). Sows were allocated (eight per treatment) commercial sow pellets (3 kg/d; control diet) or an experimental diet consisting of control diet plus 10 % extra energy in the form of excess pellets, palm oil, olive oil (OO), sunflower oil (SO) or fish oil; experimental diets were fed during either the first half (G1) or second half (G2) of gestation. Growth performance and endocrine profile of LBW ( < 1·09 kg) and normal birth weight (NBW; 1·46–1·64 kg) offspring were compared. Maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution curve for piglet birth weight. SOG1 sows had a greater proportion of LBW piglets (P < 0·05), whilst it was reduced in the OOG1 group (P < 0·05). Growth rate of LBW piglets was lower compared with their NBW siblings (P < 0·05) when dietary supplementation was offered in G2 but were similar for G1. At birth, LBW offspring of supplemented animals possessed more fat compared with the control group (P < 0·05); LBW offspring of control animals exhibited a more rapid decline in fat free mass/kg prior to weaning. Plasma metabolites and insulin concentrations were influenced by maternal diet and birth weight. In conclusion, maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution of piglet birth weights and improved the energy status of LBW piglets. Supplementation with MUFA during G1 reduced the incidence of LBW, whereas PUFA had the reverse effect.

Linking bees and flowers: How do floral communities structure pollinator communities?

Pollinators provide essential ecosystem services, and declines in some pollinator communities around the world have been reported. Understanding the fundamental components defining these communities is essential if conservation and restoration are to be successful. We examined the structure of plant-pollinator communities in a dynamic Mediterranean landscape, comprising a mosaic of post-fire regenerating habitats, and which is a recognized global hotspot for bee diversity. Each community was characterized by a highly skewed species abundance distribution, with a few dominant and many rare bee species, and was consistent with a log series model indicating that a few environmental factors govern the community. Floral community composition, the quantity and quality of forage resources present, and the geographic locality organized bee communities at various levels: (1) The overall structure of the bee community (116 species), as revealed through ordination, was dependent upon nectar resource diversity (defined as the variety of nectar volume-concentration combinations available), the ratio of pollen to nectar energy, floral diversity, floral abundance, and post-fire age. (2) Bee diversity, measured as species richness, was closely linked to floral diversity (especially of annuals), nectar resource diversity, and post-fire age of the habitat. (3) The abundance of the most common species was primarily related to post-fire age, grazing intensity, and nesting substrate availability. Ordination models based on age-characteristic post-fire floral community structure explained 39-50% of overall variation observed in bee community structure. Cluster analysis showed that all the communities shared a high degree of similarity in their species composition (27-59%); however, the geographical location of sites also contributed a smaller but significant component to bee community structure. We conclude that floral resources act in specific and previously unexplored ways to modulate the diversity of the local geographic species pool, with specific disturbance factors, superimposed upon these patterns, mainly affecting the dominant species.

Comparison of sample size formulae for 2x2 cross-over designs applied to bioequivalence studies

We consider the comparison of two formulations in terms of average bioequivalence using the 2 × 2 cross-over design. In a bioequivalence study, the primary outcome is a pharmacokinetic measure, such as the area under the plasma concentration by time curve, which is usually assumed to have a lognormal distribution. The criterion typically used for claiming bioequivalence is that the 90% confidence interval for the ratio of the means should lie within the interval (0.80, 1.25), or equivalently the 90% confidence interval for the differences in the means on the natural log scale should be within the interval (-0.2231, 0.2231). We compare the gold standard method for calculation of the sample size based on the non-central t distribution with those based on the central t and normal distributions. In practice, the differences between the various approaches are likely to be small. Further approximations to the power function are sometimes used to simplify the calculations. These approximations should be used with caution, because the sample size required for a desirable level of power might be under- or overestimated compared to the gold standard method. However, in some situations the approximate methods produce very similar sample sizes to the gold standard method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new study on the power distribution of OFDMA, SC-FDMA and CP-CDMA signals

This paper explores a new technique to calculate and plot the distribution of instantaneous transmit envelope power of OFDMA and SC-FDMA signals from the equation of Probability Density Function (PDF) solved numerically. The Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF) of Instantaneous Power to Average Power Ratio (IPAPR) is computed from the structure of the transmit system matrix. This helps intuitively understand the distribution of output signal power if the structure of the transmit system matrix and the constellation used are known. The distribution obtained for OFDMA signal matches complex normal distribution. The results indicate why the CCDF of IPAPR in case of SC-FDMA is better than OFDMA for a given constellation. Finally, with this method it is shown again that cyclic prefixed DS-CDMA system is one case with optimum IPAPR. The insight that this technique provides may be useful in designing area optimised digital and power efficient analogue modules.

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.