Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Bayesian ranking and selection of fishing boat efficiencies

The steadily accumulating literature on technical efficiency in fisheries attests to the importance of efficiency as an indicator of fleet condition and as an object of management concern. In this paper, we extend previous work by presenting a Bayesian hierarchical approach that yields both efficiency estimates and, as a byproduct of the estimation algorithm, probabilistic rankings of the relative technical efficiencies of fishing boats. The estimation algorithm is based on recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods—Gibbs sampling, in particular—which have not been widely used in fisheries economics. We apply the method to a sample of 10,865 boat trips in the US Pacific hake (or whiting) fishery during 1987–2003. We uncover systematic differences between efficiency rankings based on sample mean efficiency estimates and those that exploit the full posterior distributions of boat efficiencies to estimate the probability that a given boat has the highest true mean efficiency.

Estimation following selection of the largest of two normal means

This paper considers the problem of estimation when one of a number of populations, assumed normal with known common variance, is selected on the basis of it having the largest observed mean. Conditional on selection of the population, the observed mean is a biased estimate of the true mean. This problem arises in the analysis of clinical trials in which selection is made between a number of experimental treatments that are compared with each other either with or without an additional control treatment. Attempts to obtain approximately unbiased estimates in this setting have been proposed by Shen [2001. An improved method of evaluating drug effect in a multiple dose clinical trial. Statist. Medicine 20, 1913–1929] and Stallard and Todd [2005. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 135, 402–419]. This paper explores the problem in the simple setting in which two experimental treatments are compared in a single analysis. It is shown that in this case the estimate of Stallard and Todd is the maximum-likelihood estimate (m.l.e.), and this is compared with the estimate proposed by Shen. In particular, it is shown that the m.l.e. has infinite expectation whatever the true value of the mean being estimated. We show that there is no conditionally unbiased estimator, and propose a new family of approximately conditionally unbiased estimators, comparing these with the estimators suggested by Shen.

Agonist-dependent internalization of D2 receptors: imaging quantification by confocal microscopy

In positron emission tomography and single photon emission computed tomography studies using D2 dopamine (DA) receptor radiotracers, a decrease in radiotracer binding potential (BP) is usually interpreted in terms of increased competition with synaptic DA. However, some data suggest that this signal may also reflect agonist (DA)-induced increases in D2 receptor (D2R) internalization, a process which would presumably also decrease the population of receptors available for binding to hydrophilic radioligands. To advance interpretation of alterations in D2 radiotracer BP, direct methods of assessment of D2R internalization are required. Here, we describe a confocal microscopy-based approach for the quantification of agonist-dependent receptor internalization. The method relies upon double-labeling of the receptors with antibodies directed against intracellular as well as extracellular epitopes. Following agonist stimulation, DA D2R internalization was quantified by differentiating, in optical cell sections, the signal due to the staining of the extracellular from intracellular epitopes of D2Rs. Receptor internalization was increased in the presence of the D2 agonists DA and bromocriptine, but not the D1 agonist SKF38393. Pretreatment with either the D2 antagonist sulpiride, or inhibitors of internalization (phenylarsine oxide and high molarity sucrose), blocked D2-agonist induced receptor internalization, thus validating this method in vitro. This approach therefore provides a direct and streamlined methodology for investigating the pharmacological and mechanistic aspects of D2R internalization, and should inform the interpretation of results from in vivo receptor imaging studies.

High throughput, high resolution selection of polymorphic microsatellite loci for multiplex analysis

Background Large-scale genetic profiling, mapping and genetic association studies require access to a series of well-characterised and polymorphic microsatellite markers with distinct and broad allele ranges. Selection of complementary microsatellite markers with non-overlapping allele ranges has historically proved to be a bottleneck in the development of multiplex microsatellite assays. The characterisation process for each microsatellite locus can be laborious and costly given the need for numerous, locus-specific fluorescent primers. Results Here, we describe a simple and inexpensive approach to select useful microsatellite markers. The system is based on the pooling of multiple unlabelled PCR amplicons and their subsequent ligation into a standard cloning vector. A second round of amplification utilising generic labelled primers targeting the vector and unlabelled locus-specific primers targeting the microsatellite flanking region yield allelic profiles that are representative of all individuals contained within the pool. Suitability of various DNA pool sizes was then tested for this purpose. DNA template pools containing between 8 and 96 individuals were assessed for the determination of allele ranges of individual microsatellite markers across a broad population. This helped resolve the balance between using pools that are large enough to allow the detection of many alleles against the risk of including too many individuals in a pool such that rare alleles are over-diluted and so do not appear in the pooled microsatellite profile. Pools of DNA from 12 individuals allowed the reliable detection of all alleles present in the pool. Conclusion The use of generic vector-specific fluorescent primers and unlabelled locus-specific primers provides a high resolution, rapid and inexpensive approach for the selection of highly polymorphic microsatellite loci that possess non-overlapping allele ranges for use in large-scale multiplex assays.

An in situ time-dependent study of the photodimerisation of chloro-derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid using infrared microspectroscopy with a synchrotron radiation source

The photodimerisation of single crystals of substituted cinnamic acid has been monitored continuously by infrared microscopy using a synchrotron source. The beta-form of 2,4-dichloro-trans-cinnamic acid dimerises under ultraviolet irradiation to form the corresponding beta-truxinic acid derivative in a reaction which follows strictly first order kinetics. By contrast the corresponding reactions in single crystals of beta-2-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid and beta-4-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid deviate somewhat from first order kinetics as a result of solid-state effects. In all three cases the reactions proceed smoothly from monomer to dimer with no hint of any reaction intermediate.

4,4 '-Dipyridyl-N,N '-dioxide complexes of metal-thiocyanate/selenocyanate: pi-stacked molecular rods as three-dimensional support for two-dimensional polymeric sheets and intra/interchain S center dot center dot center dot S interaction dependent architecture of the R-2(2)(8) synthon driven assembly of one-dimensional polymeric chains

Three supramolecular complexes of Co(II) using SCN-/SeCN- in combination with 4,4'-dipyridyl-N,N'-dioxide (dpyo), i.e., {[Co(SCN)(2)(dpyo)(2)].(dpyo)}(n) ( 1), {[Co(SCN)(2)(dpyo)(H2O)(2)].(H2O)}(n) ( 2), {[Co(SeCN)(2)(dpyo)(H2O)(2)]center dot(H2O)}(n) ( 3), have been synthesized and characterized by single-crystal X-ray analysis. Complex 1 is a rare example of a dpyo bridged two-dimensional (2D) coordination polymer, and pi-stacked dpyo supramolecular rods are generated by the lattice dpyo, passing through the rhombic grid of stacked layers, resulting in a three-dimensional (3D) superstructure. Complexes 2 and 3 are isomorphous one-dimensional (1D) coordination polymers [-Co-dpyo-Co-] that undergo self-assembly leading to a bilayer architecture derived through an R-2(2)(8) H-bonding synthon between coordinated water and dpyo oxygen. A reinvestigation of coordination polymers [Mn(SCN)(2)(dpyo)( H2O)(MeOH)](n) ( 4) and {[Fe(SCN)(2)(dpyo)(H2O)(2)]center dot(H2O)}(n) ( 5) reported recently by our group [ Manna et al. Indian J. Chem. 2006, 45A, 1813] reveals brick wall topology rather than bilayer architecture is due to the decisive role of S center dot center dot center dot S/Se center dot center dot center dot Se interactions in determining the helical nature in 4 and 5 as compared to zigzag polymeric chains in 2 and 3, although the same R-2(2)(8) synthon is responsible for supramolecular assembly in these complexes.

2D parallel interpenetration of [M-2(bpp)(4)X-4] [M, Fe(II)/Co(II); bpp, 4,4 '-trimethylenedipyridine; X, SCN-SeCN- and N-3(-)] complexes: pseudohalide-dependent conformation of bpp

Three coordination complexes of Co(II)/Fe(II) with 4,4'-trimethylenedipyridine (bpp) and pseudohalides (SCN-, SeCN- and N-3(-)) have been synthesized. The complexes have been characterized by X-ray single crystal structure determination. They are isomorphous having 2D layers in which two independent wavy nets display parallel interwoven structures. Pseudohalide binds metal centers through N terminal and occupies the trans axial positions of the octahedral metal coordination environment. Pseudohalide remains pendant on both sides of the polymeric layer and help the stacking through hydrogen bonding. The conformation of bpp in the interpenetrated nets is observed to be dependent on the choice of pseudohalide. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structure dependent rearrangement of the cyclopropylmethyl cation - isolation of a bicyclo[3.2.0]heptene

Access to 7-allyl substituted norbornene derivatives for tandem olefin metathesis via cationic rearrangement of cyclopropylmethanol substituted norbornenes is shown to be structure dependent. In some cases products that arise from cationic rearrangement of a cyclopropylmethyl cation are furnished. Thionyl chloride is shown to be superior to silica for inducing the desired rearrangement. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agonist-dependent internalization of D2 receptors: Imaging quantification by confocal microscopy

In positron emission tomography and single photon emission computed tomography studies using D2 dopamine (DA) receptor radiotracers, a decrease in radiotracer binding potential (BP) is usually interpreted in terms of increased competition with synaptic DA. However, some data suggest that this signal may also reflect agonist (DA)-induced increases in D2 receptor (D2R) internalization, a process which would presumably also decrease the population of receptors available for binding to hydrophilic radioligands. To advance interpretation of alterations in D2 radiotracer BP, direct methods of assessment of D2R internalization are required. Here, we describe a confocal microscopy-based approach for the quantification of agonist-dependent receptor internalization. The method relies upon double-labeling of the receptors with antibodies directed against intracellular as well as extracellular epitopes. Following agonist stimulation, DA D2R internalization was quantified by differentiating, in optical cell sections, the signal due to the staining of the extracellular from intracellular epitopes of D2Rs. Receptor internalization was increased in the presence of the D2 agonists DA and bromocriptine, but not the D1 agonist SKF38393. Pretreatment with either the D2 antagonist sulpiride, or inhibitors of internalization (phenylarsine oxide and high molarity sucrose), blocked D2-agonist induced receptor internalization, thus validating this method in vitro. This approach therefore provides a direct and streamlined methodology for investigating the pharmacological and mechanistic aspects of D2R internalization, and should inform the interpretation of results from in vivo receptor imaging studies.

Energy-dependent cancellation of diffraction spots due to surface roughening

The low-energy electron diffraction (LEED) pattern of the step-kinked Pt{531} surface at 200 K shows energy-dependent cancellation of diffraction spots over unusually large energy ranges, up to 100 eV. This cannot be reproduced theoretically when a flat surface geometry is assumed. A relatively simple model of roughening, however, involving 0.25 ML of vacancies and adatoms leads to very good agreement with the experiment. The cancellation of intensities within a very narrow range of adatom or vacancy coverages is caused by the interference of electrons emerging from different heights but similar local environments. This is a rare example where the energy dependence of integrated LEED spot intensities is dramatically affected by the long-range arrangement of atoms.

Temporal regulation of expression of immediate early and second phase transcripts by endothelin-1 in cardiomyocytes

Background: Endothelin-1 stimulates Gq protein-coupled receptors to promote proliferation in dividing cells or hypertrophy in terminally differentiated cardiomyocytes. In cardiomyocytes, endothelin-1 rapidly (within minutes) stimulates protein kinase signaling, including extracellular-signal regulated kinases 1/2 (ERK1/2; though not ERK5), with phenotypic/physiological changes developing from approximately 12 h. Hypertrophy is associated with changes in mRNA/protein expression, presumably consequent to protein kinase signaling, but the connections between early, transient signaling events and developed hypertrophy are unknown. Results: Using microarrays, we defined the early transcriptional responses of neonatal rat cardiomyocytes to endothelin-1 over 4 h, differentiating between immediate early gene (IEG) and second phase RNAs with cycloheximide. IEGs exhibited differential temporal and transient regulation, with expression of second phase RNAs within 1 h. Of transcripts upregulated at 30 minutes encoding established proteins, 28 were inhibited >50% by U0126 (which inhibits ERK1/2/5 signaling), with 9 inhibited 25-50%. Expression of only four transcripts was not inhibited. At 1 h, most RNAs (approximately 67%) were equally changed in total and polysomal RNA with approximately 17% of transcripts increased to a greater extent in polysomes. Thus, changes in expression of most protein-coding RNAs should be reflected in protein synthesis. However, approximately 16% of transcripts were essentially excluded from the polysomes, including some protein-coding mRNAs, presumably inefficiently translated. Conclusion: The phasic, temporal regulation of early transcriptional responses induced by endothelin-1 in cardiomyocytes indicates that, even in terminally differentiated cells, signals are propagated beyond the primary signaling pathways through transcriptional networks leading to phenotypic changes (that is, hypertrophy). Furthermore, ERK1/2 signaling plays a major role in this response.

Selection of funding schemes by a borrowing decision model: a Hong Kong case study

In financial decision-making, a number of mathematical models have been developed for financial management in construction. However, optimizing both qualitative and quantitative factors and the semi-structured nature of construction finance optimization problems are key challenges in solving construction finance decisions. The selection of funding schemes by a modified construction loan acquisition model is solved by an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) approach. The basic objectives of the model are to optimize the loan and to minimize the interest payments for all projects. Multiple projects being undertaken by a medium-size construction firm in Hong Kong were used as a real case study to demonstrate the application of the model to the borrowing decision problems. A compromise monthly borrowing schedule was finally achieved. The results indicate that Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS) was first identified as the source of external financing. Selection of sources of funding can then be made to avoid the possibility of financial problems in the firm by classifying qualitative factors into external, interactive and internal types and taking additional qualitative factors including sovereignty, credit ability and networking into consideration. Thus a more accurate, objective and reliable borrowing decision can be provided for the decision-maker to analyse the financial options.