A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP on chromosome 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance.

BackgroundBipolar disorder is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for bipolar disorder in the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain.AimsWe sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on bipolar disorder risk by combining data from both bipolar disorder genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and brain eQTL.MethodTo detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with bipolar disorder, we jointly analysed data from a bipolar disorder GWAS (7481 cases and 9250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (n = 5775) and cognitive performance (n = 342) among healthy individuals.ResultsIntegrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 on chromosome 20q11.22 and bipolar disorder (log Bayes factor = 5.48; bipolar disorder P = 5.85×10(-5)). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and bipolar disorder susceptibility (P = 3.54×10(-8)). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy individuals.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for bipolar disorder; they also highlight the informative value of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex disorders, such as bipolar disorder.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Behavioural characteristics in phylogenetics : a case study using black fly (Diptera: Simuliidae) cocoon spinning behaviour

1-1 is torically, the predominan t method of reconstructing phylogenies has been through the use of morphological characters. There are new techniques now gaining acceptance, including molecular techniques al1d chromosomal information. Altl10ugh the study of behaviour has been used in a comparative framework, these analyses have, historically, been based on intuition. Hennig (1966) devised a neV\' method of reconstructing phylogenies which provided a 110ncircular method for formulating, testing and refining phylogenies. Subsequent s)Tstematists had virtually abandoned ecological and beha\lioural data as primary indicators of phylogenetic relationships (Brooks and McLennan 1991). Therefore, in a modern cladistic framework (sensu Hennig) the analysis of behavioural traits remains underrepresented as a method of reconstructing phylogenies. This thesis will reconstruct the phylogeny for species of black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae), using two steps. The first step is to thoroughl)' understand and explain the cocoon spinning in black fly larvae. There have bee115 previous descriptions of cocoon spinning, but all were incomplete or erroneous. The advances in technology, including video recorders and VCRs, have allowed this behaviour to be analyzed in great detail in 20 different species. A complete description of the cocoon spinning of Simulium \littatum is given. This description will be used as a template for the other species observed. The description and understanding of cococ)n spinning was the first step in undertaking a phylogenetic analysis using this behaviour. The behaviour was then broken down and analyzed, revealing 23 characters, 3 either qualitative and quantitative in nature. These characters were assessed in a cladistic framework (sensu Hennig) and a phylogenetic tree was reconstructed with a e.I of 0.91 and an R.I. of 0.96. This phylogenetic tree closely resembles a previously established pllylogenetic tree produced from morphological and cytological information. The importance of this result is the indication that, contrary to some authors, behavioural characters, if used properly, can add very informative characters to a data set.

Fast atom bombardment mass spectrometry of the coordination complexes of the ligand 5, 5, 7, 12, 12, 14- hexamenthyl-1, 4, 8, 11-tetraazacycloteradecane

A number of metal complexes containing the ligand 5,5,7,12,12,14-hexamethyl-l,4,8,11-tetra-azatetradecane were synthesized and analyzed using electron impact (EI) and fast atom bombardment (FAB). The FAB mass spectra were obtained in positive and negative ion mode. FAB in the positive ion mode proved to be the most successful technique for the identification of these compounds. In the majority of cases the spectra obtained using positive ion FAB were structurally informative, although not all showed molecular (M+) or quasimolecular ([M+H]+) ions. The fragmentations observed were characteristic of the ligands, and were interpreted based on the chemistry of these compounds.

Expanding the research horizon in higher education : master's students' perceptions of research assistantships

This study explores how effectively current research assistantships impart research methods, skills, and attitudes; and how well those experiences prepare the next generation of researchers to meet the evolving needs of an ever-expanding, knowledge- based economy and society. Through personal interviews, 7 graduate student research assistants expressed their perceptions regarding their research assistantships. The open- ended interview questions emphasized (a) what research knowledge and skills the graduate students acquired; (b) what other lessons they took away from the experience; and (c) how the research assistantships influenced their graduate studies and future academic plans. After participants were interviewed, the data were transcribed, memberchecked, and then analyzed using a grounded theory research design. The findings show that research assistantships are valuable educational venues that can not only promote research learning but also benefit research assistants' master's studies and stimulate reflection regarding their future educational and research plans. Although data are limited to the responses of 7 students, findings can contribute to the enhancement of research assistantship opportunities as a means of developing skilled future researchers that in tum will benefit Canada as an emerging leader in research and development. The study is meant to serve as an informative source for (a) experienced researchers who have worked with research assistants; (b) researchers who are planning to hire research assistants; and (c) experienced and novice research assistants. Further, the study has the potential to inform future research training initiatives as well as related policies and practices.

The light and dark sides of perfectionism : implications for health and well-being

The present work presents two studies that examined the association of perfectionism, operationally defined by Hewi t t and Fl e t t ' s (1991) multidimensional mode l of perfectionism, with health and subjective well-being (SWB). The underlying question of this research was whether perfectionism could be beneficial as well as detrimental to health and well-being, as this is one of the mos t highly debated questions in the current literature. In samples of relatively healthy university students (n = 538) and community adults suffering from various chronic illnesses (n = 772), results from Study One indicated that socially prescribed perfectionism (SPP) is directly associated wi th poor e r he a l th and well-being. Results further showed f rom a personcentered perspective that there is a l a rge group of individuals wi th high levels of SPP and that i t is indeed these individuals who reported the poorest health and lowe s t levels of well-being. Other-oriented perfectionism was found to be unrelated to health and SWB. Findings revealed that when perfectionism is self-imposed (i.e., self-oriented perfectionism; SOP), i t is neither healthy nor unhealthy in an absolute sense. From the variable-centered perspective, this conclusion was supported by the f a c t tha t SOP was associated wi th both positive (e.g., be t t e r mental health and highe r levels of SWB in the student sample), and nega t ive correlates (e.g., higher levels of negative affect, stress, and neuroticism in both samples). Evidence f rom the chronically-ill sample further substantiated this conclusion by showing that there may be an optimal level of SOP, because mode r a t e levels of SOP we r e found to be associated with be t t e r health and highe r levels of SWB, whereas levels tha t we r e too low or too high we r e found to be associated with poor e r health and lowe r levels of SWB. Findings f rom the person-centered approach we r e particularly informative, in that they not only demonstrated tha t unique profiles of

The Informational Value of Corporate Credit Ratings

This thesis examines the quality of credit ratings issued by the three major credit rating agencies - Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch. If credit ratings are informative, then prices of underlying credit instruments such as fixed-income securities and credit default insurance should change to reflect the new credit risk information. Using data on 246 different major fixed income securities issuers and spanning January 2000 to December 2011, we find that credit default swaps (CDS) spreads do not react to changes in credit ratings. Hence credit ratings for all three agencies are not price informative. CDS prices are mostly determined by historical CDS prices while ratings are mostly determined by historical ratings. We find that credit ratings are marginally more sensitive to CDS than CDS are sensitive to ratings.

Foster Children in Education: Resource Handbook for Elementary Educators

This project is aligned with examining the role of the education system and the foster care context on the learning experiences of young children in the classroom. This project is a study of the literature and research conducted on the life experiences, adverse effects of these experiences (such as attachment disorder), socioemotional development, and resiliency of foster care children. Furthermore, the project explores the literature on how the experiences of these foster children traverse contexts and impact the education setting. This study also outlines specific strategies and practices for teachers and school staff in order to promote students’ resiliency, competency, behaviour management, and overall educational success and positive academic experience. These strategies resulted from a critical review of the literature and translated into the development of an informative handbook intended for teachers. The handbook developed in this study focuses on the understanding of the lives of foster care children, their histories, adverse experiences, socioemotional development, strategies to manage behaviour, unique needs, and encouraging their resiliency and success in school. To ensure the soundness of the handbook, 2 education liaisons at a Family and Child Services agency within Ontario and a former child and service social worker from Manitoba reviewed the first draft and provided comments on the validity of the content and the potential usability of the handbook for educators. Suggestions and comments provided by these experts were used to enhance the final product of the handbook.

Top-down and Bottom-up influences on ACC activation: Evaluation of a proposed model of the feedback-related negativity

The Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN) is thought to reflect the dopaminergic prediction error signal from the subcortical areas to the ACC (i.e., a bottom-up signal). Two studies were conducted in order to test a new model of FRN generation, which includes direct modulating influences of medial PFC (i.e., top-down signals) on the ACC at the time of the FRN. Study 1 examined the effects of one’s sense of control (top-down) and of informative cues (bottom-up) on the FRN measures. In Study 2, sense of control and instruction-based (top-down) and probability-based expectations (bottom-up) were manipulated to test the proposed model. The results suggest that any influences of medial PFC on the activity of the ACC that occur in the context of incentive tasks are not direct. The FRN was shown to be sensitive to salient stimulus characteristics. The results of this dissertation partially support the reinforcement learning theory, in that the FRN is a marker for prediction error signal from subcortical areas. However, the pattern of results outlined here suggests that prediction errors are based on salient stimulus characteristics and are not reward specific. A second goal of this dissertation was to examine whether ACC activity, measured through the FRN, is altered in individuals at-risk for problem-gambling behaviour (PG). Individuals in this group were more sensitive to the valence of the outcome in a gambling task compared to not at-risk individuals, suggesting that gambling contexts increase the sensitivity of the reward system to valence of the outcome in individuals at risk for PG. Furthermore, at-risk participants showed an increased sensitivity to reward characteristics and a decreased response to loss outcomes. This contrasts with those not at risk whose FRNs were sensitive to losses. As the results did not replicate previous research showing attenuated FRNs in pathological gamblers, it is likely that the size and time of the FRN does not change gradually with increasing risk of maladaptive behaviour. Instead, changes in ACC activity reflected by the FRN in general can be observed only after behaviour becomes clinically maladaptive or through comparison between different types of gain/loss outcomes.

Educational Technology Decision-Making: A Case Study on Technology Acquisition for 746,000 Ontario Students

Very little research has examined K–12 educational technology decision-making in Canada. This collective case study explores the technology procurement process in Ontario’s publicly funded school districts to determine if it is informed by the relevant research, grounded in best practices, and enhances student learning. Using a qualitative approach, 10 senior leaders (i.e., chief information officers, superintendents, etc.) were interviewed. A combination of open-ended and closed-ended questions were used to reveal the most important factors driving technology acquisition, research support, governance procedures, data use, and assessment and return on investment (ROI) measures utilized by school districts in their implementation of educational technology. After participants were interviewed, the data were transcribed, member checked, and then submitted to “Computer-assisted NCT analysis” (Friese, 2014) using ATLAS.ti. The findings show that senior leaders are making acquisitions that are not aligned with current scholarship and not with student learning as the focus. It was also determined that districts struggle to use data-driven decision-making to support the governance of educational technology spending. Finally, the results showed that districts do not have effective assessment measures in place to determine the efficacy or ROI of a purchased technology. Although data are limited to the responses of 10 senior leaders, findings represent the technology leadership for approximately 746,000 Ontario students. The study is meant to serve as an informative resource for senior leaders and presents strategic and research-validated approaches to technology procurement. Further, the study has the potential to refine technology decision-making, policies, and practices in K–12 education.

Examining Bullying Intervention Motivations Through a Cost/Benefit Analysis

The purpose of the present study was to examine the role of the bystander in bullying situations. A cost/benefit model was explored in researching factors adolescents consider in deciding whether to intervene when witnessing bullying. Adolescents in the present study (N = 101 (50.5% female), between the ages of 12 to 18, M = 15.37 years; SD = 1.71 years) completed self-report questionnaires, and also responded to bullying scenarios, stating how the bystander would react, while explaining potential personal costs and benefits. Adolescents were able to articulate various personal costs and benefits when making the decision to intervene. Conclusions of the present study include: 1) the evolutionary approach is quite informative in illuminating the decision process of the bystander, 2) adolescents’ beliefs about bullying and the role of bystanders are different from their teachers’, and 3) the rather explicit cost/benefit model could be used to develop more targeted anti-bullying programs.

Optimal and Robust Designs of Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments for Proportional Hazards Models

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to obtain reliability information about a product within a limited time frame. The Cox s proportional hazards (PH) model is often utilized for reliability prediction. My master thesis research focuses on designing accelerated life testing experiments for reliability estimation. We consider multiple step-stress ALT plans with censoring. The optimal stress levels and times of changing the stress levels are investigated. We discuss the optimal designs under three optimality criteria. They are D-, A- and Q-optimal designs. We note that the classical designs are optimal only if the model assumed is correct. Due to the nature of prediction made from ALT experimental data, attained under the stress levels higher than the normal condition, extrapolation is encountered. In such case, the assumed model cannot be tested. Therefore, for possible imprecision in the assumed PH model, the method of construction for robust designs is also explored.

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

On the Political Economy of Sequential Reforms

This paper proposes an explanation for why efficient reforms are not carried out when losers have the power to block their implementation, even though compensating them is feasible. We construct a signaling model with two-sided incomplete information in which a government faces the task of sequentially implementing two reforms by bargaining with interest groups. The organization of interest groups is endogenous. Compensations are distortionary and government types differ in the concern about distortions. We show that, when compensations are allowed to be informative about the government’s type, there is a bias against the payment of compensations and the implementation of reforms. This is because paying high compensations today provides incentives for some interest groups to organize and oppose subsequent reforms with the only purpose of receiving a transfer. By paying lower compensations, governments attempt to prevent such interest groups from organizing. However, this comes at the cost of reforms being blocked by interest groups with relatively high losses.