Racionalidade limitada na decisão de consumo de etanol no Brasil: um estudo para o período de 2001 até 2011

Os estudos sobre consumo de etanol para veículos leves no Brasil geram bastante interesse para pesquisadores de diversas partes do mundo, dada a possibilidade de investigar características chaves sobre o comportamento do consumidor desse produto. Esta dissertação propõe um estudo que estima a equação de demanda de etanol no Brasil com o objetivo de investigar a existência de inércia na decisão de consumo, que neste trabalho chamaremos de hábito. Foi ajustado um modelo econométrico em dois estágios com dados mensais da ANP, utilizando-se variáveis instrumentais que controlaram a endogeneidade dos preços, para procurar evidências empíricas sobre a influência da inércia na decisão de consumo. Os estados foram classificados em termos das paridades de preço etanol-gasolina (próximos ou distantes do valor de 70%) e em termos de renda (ricos ou pobres). A análise foi dividida em dois períodos para se capturar a influência da entrada da frota flex-fuel na economia brasileira. Por fim foram construídos cenários baseados em médias móveis (para o cálculo das paridades de preço dos combustíveis) para investigar a influência do hábito na decisão de consumo. Concluiu-se que há diferenças significativas nos valores das elasticidades-preço próprias e cruzadas entre os dois períodos estudados e para as diferentes faixas de paridades de preços e classificação de renda. Evidências da influência da inércia na decisão do consumo foram encontradas apenas para os estados classificados como ricos, pois se encontrou diferenças nas magnitudes das elasticidades de preços entre faixas de paridade apenas ao se considerar os critérios de maior estabilidade no tempo, fornecendo indícios de que consumidores desses estados são capazes de adotar uma opção menos vantajosa (em termos de rendimento) como consequência da inércia na decisão de consumo. Para os estados classificados como pobre isto não foi evidenciado.

Essays in taxation and savings

Esta tese é composta por três artigos. Dois deles investigam assuntos afeitos a tributação e o terceiro é um artigo sobre o tema “poupança”'. Embora os objetos de análise sejam distintos, os três possuem como característica comum a aplicação de técnicas de econometria de dados em painel a bases de dados inéditas. Em dois dos artigos, utiliza-se estimação por GMM em modelos dinâmicos. Por sua vez, o artigo remanescente é uma aplicação de modelos de variável dependente latente. Abaixo, apresenta-se um breve resumo de cada artigo, começando pelos dois artigos de tributação, que dividem uma seção comum sobre o ICMS (o imposto estadual sobre valor adicionado) e terminando com o artigo sobre poupança. O primeiro artigo analisa a importância da fiscalização como instrumento para deter a evasão de tributos e aumentar a receita tributária, no caso de um imposto sobre valor adicionado, no contexto de um país em desenvolvimento. O estudo é realizado com dados do estado de São Paulo. Para tratar questões relativas a endogeneidade e inércia na série de receita tributária, empregam-se técnicas de painel dinâmico. Utiliza-se como variáveis de controle o nível do PIB regional e duas proxies para esforço fiscal: a quantidade e o valor das multas tributárias. Os resultados apontam impacto significativo do esforço fiscal nas receitas tributárias. O artigo evidencia, indiretamente, a forma como a evasão fiscal é afetada pela penalidade aplicada aos casos de sonegação. Suas conclusões também são relevantes no contexto das discussões sobre o federalismo fiscal brasileiro, especialmente no caso de uma reforma tributária potencial. O segundo artigo examina uma das principais tarefas das administrações tributárias: a escolha periódica de contribuintes para auditoria. A melhora na eficiência dos mecanismos de seleção de empresas tem o potencial de impactar positivamente a probabilidade de detecção de fraudes fiscais, provendo melhor alocação dos escassos recursos fiscais. Neste artigo, tentamos desenvolver este mecanismo calculando a probabilidade de sonegação associada a cada contribuinte. Isto é feito, no universo restrito de empresas auditadas, por meio da combinação “ótima” de diversos indicadores fiscais existentes e de informações dos resultados dos procedimentos de auditoria, em modelos de variável dependente latente. Após calculados os coeficientes, a probabilidade de sonegação é calculada para todo o universo de contribuintes. O método foi empregado em um painel com micro-dados de empresas sujeitas ao recolhimento de ICMS no âmbito da Delegacia Tributária de Guarulhos, no estado de São Paulo. O terceiro artigo analisa as baixas taxas de poupança dos países latino-americanos nas últimas décadas. Utilizando técnicas de dados em painel, identificam-se os determinantes da taxa de poupança. Em seguida, faz-se uma análise contrafactual usando a China, que tem apresentado altas taxas de poupança no mesmo período, como parâmetro. Atenção especial é dispensada ao Brasil, que tem ficado muito atrás dos seus pares no grupo dos BRICs neste quesito. O artigo contribui para a literatura existente em vários sentidos: emprega duas amplas bases de dados para analisar a influência de uma grande variedade de determinantes da taxa de poupança, incluindo variáveis demográficas e de previdência social; confirma resultados previamente encontrados na literatura, com a robustez conferida por bases de dados mais ricas; para alguns países latino-americanos, revela que as suas taxas de poupança tenderiam a aumentar se eles tivessem um comportamento mais semelhante ao da China em outras áreas, mas o incremento não seria tão dramático.

What causes violent crime?

This study uses a new data set of crime ratesfor a large sample of countriesfor the period 1970- 1994, based on information from the United Nations World Crime Surveys, to ana/yze the determinants ofnational homicide and robbery rates. A simple model of the incentives to commit crimes is proposed, which explicit/y considers possible causes of the persistence of crime over time (criminal inertia). Several econometric mode/s are estimated, attempting to capture the . determinonts of crime rates across countries and over time. The empirical mode/s are first run for cross-sections and then applie'd to panel data. The former focus on erplanatory variables that do not change markedly over time, while the panel data techniques consider both the eflect of the business cyc1e (i.e., GDP growth rate) on the crime rate and criminal inertia (accountedfor by the inclusion of the /agged crime rate as an explanatory variable). The panel data techniques a/so consider country-specific eflects, the joint endogeneity of some of the erplanatory variables, and lhe existence of some types of measurement e"ors aJjlicting the crime data. The results showthat increases in income inequality raise crime rates, dete"ence eflects are significant, crime tends to be counter-cyclical, and criminal inertia is significant even after controlling for other potential determinants of homicide and robbery rates.

"Desesperança de vida: homicídio em Minas Gerais , Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo: 1981 a 1997"

This paper studies the male homicide rate and its relation to economic variables in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro between 1981 and 1997. The novelty of our approach is the construction of homicide rates specific for each age between 15 and 40 years old. The economic variables' coefficients are significant1y different from zero for the population between 15 and 19 years old. As expected, an increase in real wage and a decrease in inequality reduce the rate of homicide. Surprisingly, a decrease in the unemployment rate seems to increase the rate ofhomicide. Most coefficients, however, converge to zero as a generation gets older, becoming non-significant for the population aged 20 years old or more. We also identify an inertia component in the homicide rate: generations with higher homicide rates when young also tend to have higher homicide rates over the remain of their life cycle. Therefore, if economic variables induce a high rate of homicide among young people in a certain year, this high rate tend to persist over the generation life cycle independent1y of the economy later behavior. Regressions are performed using a reformulation of the standard Logit model that incorporates a lagged dependent variable.

A regulação da previdência complementar fechada sob a perspectiva da economia comportamental: e a adesão automática como proposta para a mitigação de vieses cognitivos

A presente dissertação investiga a utilização de medidas como a adesão automática pela regulação da previdência complementar fechada a partir da flexibilização do conceito de racionalidade, tendo como base a Análise Econômica e Comportamental do Direito. Inicia-se o trabalho pela evolução histórica da regulação da previdência no Brasil, avaliando os impactos sistêmicos das alterações ocorridas no primeiro pilar previdenciário (regimes básicos). Em virtude dessas alterações e do crescimento da relevância do segundo pilar de previdência social (Previdência Complementar Fechada) para a manutenção do bem-estar, analisa-se a possibilidade de ocorrência de vieses cognitivos que implicam desvios de racionalidade dos indivíduos nas decisões relativas à previdência complementar. Esses vieses cognitivos podem fazer com que indivíduos escolham alternativas que não maximizam seu bem-estar, por razões como inércia, procrastinação e superotimismo, ao contrário do que aponta o pressuposto de racionalidade da Economia Neoclássica. Os resultados analisados conduzem à necessidade de adoção de medidas regulatórias capazes de mitigar esses desvios de racionalidade, na forma de adoção de arquitetura de escolhas que induzam à maximização do bem-estar individual, sem limitar a liberdade individual dos envolvidos. Essas medidas, entretanto, especialmente a adesão automática aos planos de benefícios, destinam-se à mitigação de vieses cognitivos, sendo criticável sua adoção em planos de previdência onde observa-se predominância de outras razões para baixos níveis de adesão, como desconfiança em relação à gestão do plano. Ademais, faz-se necessário respeitar certos critérios para sua implementação, a fim de garantir que esse instrumento somente seja utilizado quando se observar vieses cognitivos que prejudiquem significativamente o bem-estar, bem como que a opção à qual os indivíduos estão sendo induzidos é vantajosa, ao menos na grande maioria das vezes. Ao final, verifica-se a juridicidade dessas medidas, à luz da proporcionalidade, norma que permite identificar os limites para a intensidade regulatória.

Conselho Municipal de Saúde de Pedras de Fogo - PB: um estudo sobre participação

The present study aims to understand the process of Participation of the Health Council- CMS in the formularization, implementation and control of the Municipal health plan of Pedras de Fogo, through four criteria of quality of participation considered by Demo (1993): representation, legitimacy, base participation, and self-responsibility. The criteria of representation is related to the quality of politics of the representative over the representings. Legitimacy is related to the politics` quality of the process of participation based on norms and rules that stipulate the participation, the base participation is a necessary political support so that the power authorization directed to the representings can be effective and the self-responsibility refers to the capacity of being responsible when it concerns to the public service or property. Through the descriptive and exploratory study a qualitative method was adopted to consider the conditions of the participation of the twelve council members of the City council of Health of Pedras de Fogo, through a formulated Instrument based on the criteria of DEMO (1993). It was concluded that the quality of the participation of the council members of the CMS of Pedras de Fogo understands essential aspects of the criteria of quality considered by Demo (1993) but it shows fragilities as unfamiliarity with the norms that legitimize the performance of the council; unfamiliarity of its condition of being an agent and the importance of the participation of the base for the reinforcement of its participation, as well as inertia related to the check and rendering of accounts on its performance. This way it makes sense that the participation of the council in the four criteria of quality of politics considered in this paper needs to improve

UBS RN-7: proposta arquitetônica para um padrão flexível de unidade básica de saúde para a zona bioclimática 7 do RN, com ênfase na sustentabilidade ambiental

Standardization and sustainability: these two apparently antagonistic words find the challenge of uniting in a flexible architectonic proposal. This was the idea that motivated the proposal of this assignment, whose appearing is bound up with the necessity of thinking about standardized spaces that attend on functional criterias and environmental sustainability, in reply to an existing real demand. The assignment consists of an architectonic proposal for a flexible standard of a Basic Unit of Health for the bioclimatic zone 7 of RN (UBS RN-7), with emphasis in the environmental sustainability. The project contemplates innumerable involved variables, such as: obedience to the current law of the Health Ministry for the UBSs; formal/aesthetic aspects; criterias of expansiveness of the UBS I for the UBS II; relative aspects to the constructive rationality and, mainly, sustainability aspects. With the intention to unite the variables and, also, glimpsing a proposal that could reach a good functional performance, aesthetic, of environment comfort and energetic efficiency, it was also necessary to consider concepts about the flexibility of the envelopment. The elaboration of the architecture first draft was based on bibliographical research, conceptual studies and references, elaboration of the architectonic program and the draft development for the UBS port I and the UBS port II. To the end, an implantation data sheet for the project is proposed for the UBS standard project, where strategies of thermal isolation, shadowing and thermal inertia are adopted and combined to three possible types of lot, resulting in 24 possibilities of implantation

Estudo da zircônia reforçado com alumina

Ceramics materials have good properties including chemical stability, high hardness and wear resistance. Moreover, due to its fragility, can suffer failure under relatively low levels of tension. Actually zirconia is the material of choice in metal free dental prostheses used in dentistry due its inertia in physiological environment, good bending strength, hardness and fracture toughness. The alumina and mixed tungsten and titanium carbides additions, acting as reinforcement elements in the zirconia matrix, have as their main objective the improvement of mechanical properties of this material. In this work, samples of zirconia, zirconia with 30% wt of alumina and zirconia with 30% wt mixed carbides were analyzed. The samples were sintered by uniaxial hot pressing on 30 MPa pressure, for 1 hour in an argon atmosphere. They were physically characterized by porosity and density measurements, and mechanically by 3-points bending strength and Vickers microhardness. The X-ray diffraction was used for the phase identifications and microstructure was examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The addition of mixed carbides as reinforcement elements in zirconia matrix provides improvements in all properties analyzed in this work. The alumina addition has dropped the zirconia strength, although it caused improvement in other properties

Ecologia trófica em uma taxocenose de anfíbios: estrutura, filogenia e especialização individual

Historically, ever since the pre-Darwinian naturalists interspecific competition was considered the main force responsible for structuring ecological communities. This interpretation lost strength in the late 70s and throughout the 80s giving room for other views, which consider other factors such as predation, parasitism and the phylogenetic inertia more important. Studies on changes in the trophic niche of a species are still uncommon in general and especially in amphibians. Species considered generalist might actually be a group of individual specialists, or individuals that specialize in a particular category of prey during a period of scarcity of resources, thus reducing intraspecific competition. This work studied the community structure of litter amphibians and trophic variation along the dry and rainy seasons in a population of Leptodactylus macrosternum. Sixteen-litter frog species were studied for their diet. Two central assumptions were tested: 1a) if the community is structured in the niche trophic level, and 1b) if there is a significant difference in the use of food resources by different species (i.e. if the community is structured), the observed structure is the result of ecological interactions or just the current phylogenetic inertia of species. Finally, 2) if there is variation in food resource use between seasons for L. macrosternum. The community showed a structure with respect to the use of food resources, and this structure persisted after taking into account the phylogenetic relationships among species. The diet of Leptodactylus macrosternum varied with the seasons, with a significant degree of individual specialization for the dry season. Patterns of a local community are important to understand its dynamics, and this may play a role in larger- scale processes. Therefore, the studies in community ecology are fundamental to understand and eventually restoring degraded areas

Embryology of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus (Brachyura : Ocypodidae)

Ovigerous females of Ucides cordatus were collected at different mangrove areas in Iguape, SP, Brazil, and reared in the laboratory in order to describe each embryonic stage. Accounts of the biometry, internal morphology, and coloration of the eggs were taken. The embryonic development took 19 +/- 1d (27degreesC, 12:12 h) with eight well-defined stages. A salinity test on embryonic development was conducted, and a better result was obtained in a rearing at 15parts per thousand. Eggs are slightly ellipsoid through development and undergo an increase of 13.9% in diameter to 91.7% in volume. Cluster analysis revealed three different groups for diameter (Stages I-II, III-VI, and VII-VIII) and volume (Stages I-III, IV-V, and VI-VIII), supporting the classification of embryos into initial, intermediate, and final stages, which are currently used in studies on the reproductive biology of decapod crustaceans. In this species, the identification of the different embryonic stages can be achieved only if biometric data are combined with information on the internal morphology of embryos and coloration of the eggs.

Metodologia de implantação da construção enxuta: estudo de caso em construtora de porte médio

In recent years, the Brazilian construction industry has gone by changes like currency stability, increasing competition, shortage of skilled labor and increasing quality importance required by the customer, who made the sector companies seek solutions through new management practices in order to become more efficient. A alternative to these management practices is known as Lean Construction which is derived from the Toyota System Production. Lean Construction main goals are to reduce parts of activities that do not add value, increase product value by considering customer needs, reduce variability and production cycle time, simplify process by reducing the number of parts or steps, increase the flexibility in the product execution and transparency process, focus the control on overall process, introduce continuous improvement process, maintain a balance between improvements in flows and conversions and seek to learn from practices adopted by competitors. However, the construction industry is characterized by having nomadic activity, which undertakes an unique product with high cost of production and big inertia for behavioral change, making it difficult to implement the philosophy of lean construction in companies. In this sense, the main objective of this study is to develop a methodology for implementation of the principles of Lean Construction. The method of implementing the proposed management system was designed with the aid of 5W2H tool, and the implementation process is divided into three phases. The first one aims to know in a macro way the current operation of construction, identify who is its target audience and what are the products and services offered to the Market. The second phase aims to describe what actions should be taken and which documents are needed to be created or modified; finally, the third step goal consists in how to control and monitor established processes, where through Strategic Planning the company goals would be set along with their respective targets and indicators in order to keep the system working, aiming for continuous improvement with focus on the customer. This methodology was conceived as a case study analyzing a medium size construction with more than 18 years of activity and certified for almost 10 years with ISO9001 and level A in PBQP-H. We also conclude that this implementation process can be used in any developer and / or builder

Estabilidade e robustez de um controlador adaptativo indireto por um modelo de referência e estrutura variável

In this thesis, it is developed the robustness and stability analysis of a variable structure model reference adaptive controller considering the presence of disturbances and unmodeled dynamics. The controller is applied to uncertain, monovariable, linear time-invariant plants with relative degree one, and its development is based on the indirect adaptive control. In the direct approach, well known in the literature, the switching laws are designed for the controller parameters. In the indirect one, they are designed for the plant parameters and, thus, the selection of the relays upper bounds becomes more intuitive, whereas they are related to physical parameters, which present uncertainties that can be known easier, such as resistances, capacitances, inertia moments and friction coefficients. Two versions for the controller algorithm with the stability analysis are presented. The global asymptotic stability with respect to a compact set is guaranteed for both cases. Simulation results under adverse operation conditions in order to verify the theoretical results and to show the performance and robustness of the proposed controller are showed. Moreover, for practical purposes, some simplifications on the original algorithm are developed

Uma abordagem indireta para o Controlador em Modo Dual Adaptativo Robusto

In this work is proposed an indirect approach to the DualMode Adaptive Robust Controller (DMARC), combining the typicals transient and robustness properties of Variable Structure Systems, more specifically of Variable Structure Model Reference Adaptive Controller (VS-MRAC), with a smooth control signal in steady-state, typical of conventional Adaptive Controllers, as Model Reference Adaptive Controller (MRAC). The goal is to provide a more intuitive controller design, based on physical plant parameters, as resistances, inertia moments, capacitances, etc. Furthermore, with the objective to follow the evolutionary line of direct controllers, it will be proposed an indirect version for the Binary Model Reference Adaptive Controller (B-MRAC), that was the first controller attemptting to act as MRAC as well as VS-MRAC, depending on a pre-defined fixed parameter

Uma abordagem histórica para o ensino do princípio da inércia

Placed in the field of Didactic of Science, this paper proposes an approach to the introduction of the History of Science in science education, at high school level. It was designed and implemented a series of activities regarding the history of the Principle of Inertia. The aim of this approach was to give more meaning to scientific education, while opening new avenues for a better understanding of the processes of construction of scientific knowledge. The preparation of the activities involved a study of the historical development of the concept of motion, from the Aristotelian physics through physical movement concepts at medieval period, from Galileo, Gassendi, Descartes, until the first law of Newton. The strategy of teaching was applied to three classes of high school (night period) of a state public school at the city of Natal (RN). The results indicated the difficulty of overcoming alternative conceptions about movement by students. Nevertheless, we consider that the implementation of this strategy of teaching both represented gains for the learning of students, and contributed to the resizing of pedagogical practices of the teacher-researcher