Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India

Climate change vulnerability profiles are developed at the district level for agriculture, water and forest sectors for the North East region of India for the current and projected future climates. An index-based approach was used where a set of indicators that represent key sectors of vulnerability (agriculture, forest, water) is selected using the statistical technique principal component analysis. The impacts of climate change on key sectors as represented by the changes in the indicators were derived from impact assessment models. These impacted indicators were utilized for the calculation of the future vulnerability to climate change. Results indicate that majority of the districts in North East India are subject to climate induced vulnerability currently and in the near future. This is a first of its kind study that exhibits ranking of districts of North East India on the basis of the vulnerability index values. The objective of such ranking is to assist in: (i) identifying and prioritizing the most vulnerable sectors and districts; (ii) identifying adaptation interventions, and (iii) mainstreaming adaptation in development programmes.

Environmental Management

Environmental Management has become one of the most used terms in recent times. But, what exactly does the term mean and entail? Environmental management helps to investigate and manage the environment within the context of human influences, incorporating an examination of economics, culture, political structure, and social equity, as well as natural processes and systems. This book discusses in detail the various issues relating to environmental management, including the fundamentals; the various environmental policies, legislations and international treaties; the concept of environmental impact assessment; environmental auditing; life cycle assessment; various environmental management system standards; issues and techniques, and environmental design and economics has become one of the most used terms in recent times. But, what exactly does the term mean and entail? Environmental management helps to investigate and manage the environment within the context of human influences, incorporating an examination of economics, culture, political structure, and social equity, as well as natural processes and systems. This book discusses in detail the various issues relating to environmental management, including the fundamentals; the various environmental policies, legislations and international treaties; the concept of environmental impact assessment; environmental auditing; life cycle assessment; various environmental management system standards; issues and techniques, and environmental design and economics.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Assessing GCM Convergence for India Using the Variable Convergence Score

General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact-assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.

Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

Tropical river fisheries valuation: background papers to a global synthesis

This report is a compilation of five regional reviews that document the global status of tropical rivers and inland fisheries in three continents: Latin America, Africa and Asia. It explores the role of ‘valuation’ methods and their contribution to policy-making and river fishery management. From the compilation, the best estimate of the global value of inland fisheries for those three continents is US$ 5.58 billion (gross market value), which is equivalent to 19 percent of the current value of annual fish exports from developing countries (US$ 29 billion) for 2004. The compilation shows that there is a general shortage of information on inland fisheries, especially derived from conventional economic valuation methods, though information from economic impact assessment methods and socio-economic and livelihood analysis methods is more widely available. The status of knowledge about the impact of changes in river management on the value of tropical river fisheries is weak and patchy. Although the impacts of large dams on the hydrology, ecology and livelihood support attributes of tropical rivers are well-recognized, there have been only few valuation studies of these issues. The document highlights the need for further valuation studies of tropical river and inland fisheries in developing countries. It underlines how vital it is for policy-makers and other stakeholders to understand the importance of these natural resources in order to make appropriate decisions concerning their role in development policy and illustrates why capacity building in valuation should become a major priority for agencies concerned with fisheries management and policy-making.

STREAM Journal, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp 1-18. January-March 2004

CONTENTS: Creating understanding and ownership of collaborative research results through ‘learning by doing,’ by Robert Arthur and Caroline Garaway. Fish culture, farming, markets and promotion: an integrated, sustainable approach to aquaculture and rural development, by Pen Rotha and Brendan Boucher. Fisheries policy reform impact assessment in Cambodia: understanding policy and poor people, by Philip Townsley and Sem Viryak. “Shrimp Hero” Phan The Phuong, by Ngo Minh Khoi. Coral farming in Vietnam, by Nguyen Viet Vinh. The global fisheries market: can rural poor people benefit? Issues raised by STREAM Media Monitoring Reports, by Paul Bulcock.

Biology, Oceanography, and Fisheries of the North Pacific Transition Zone and Subarctic Frontal Zone: Papers from the North Pacific Transition Zone Workshop, Honolulu, Hawaii, 9-11 May 1988

In the past few years, large-scale, high-seas driftnet fishing has sparked intense debate and political conflict in many oceanic regions. In the Pacific Ocean the driftnet controversy first emerged in the North Pacific transition zone and subarctic frontal zone, where driftnet vessels from Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan pursue their target species of neon flying squid. Other North Pacific driftnet fleets from Japan and Taiwan target stocks of tunas and billfishes. Both types of driftnet fishing incidentally kill valued non-target species of marine life, including fish, mammals, birds, and turtles. In response to public concerns about driftnet fishing, government scientists began early on to assemble available information and consider what new data were required to assess impacts on North Pacific marine resources and the broader pelagic ecosystem. Accordingly, a workshop was convened at the NMFS Honolulu Laboratory in May 1988 to review current information on the biology, oceanography, and fisheries of the North Pacific transition zone and subarctic frontal zone. The workshop participants, from the United States and Canada, also developed a strategic plan to guide NMFS in developing a program of driftnet fishery research and impact assessment. This volume contains a selection of scientific review papers presented at the 1988 Honolulu workshop. The papers represent part of the small kernel of information available then, prior to the expansion of cooperative international scientific programs. Subsequent driftnet fishery monitoring and research by the United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have added much new data. Nevertheless, this collection of papers provides a historical perspective and contains useful information not readily available elsewhere. (PDF file contains 118 pages.)

Test von Fanggeräten zur Untersuchung von Grundfischfaunen in Windparkgebieten der Ostsee

With respect to future environmental impact assessment different bottom trawls are presently investigated for their suitability for sampling the fish fauna in potential windpark areas asses. For this purpose the international Baltic Sea Trawl, the Box trawl, two different small beam trawls and small eel fykes were compared on a research cutter in June 2002. The best catchability with the highest abundance of demersal fish species and widest length distribution was obtained with the Box trawl. During another cruise in December 2002 the Box trawl was again compared with the Windpark trawl. As a result the Box trawl performed best, with regard to the overall catchability. However the Windpark Trawl is easier to handle under the conditions onboard small fishing cutters.

Radio broadcasting for fisheries development in Nigeria: Kainji Lake experience

The impact of radio as a medium of communication in all human endeavours cannot be over emphasized. It is the cheapest means of reaching large number of people in illiterate society. Thus, the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project used radio in reaching fishers around Kainji Lake basin (Nigeria). Two radio stations namely Radio Niger (Koro station in New Bussa) and Federal Radio Corporation (FRCN), Kaduna were used. Open broadcast using Hausa language, which is commonly spoken among the target group, was used for the broadcast.A total of 152 programmes were produced and broadcasted 720 times.After five years of broadcast, impact assessment studies were carried out using focus group discussion method in 25 randomly selected fishing villages out of 309 villages. The paper reports the result of the impact of the radio broadcast on fishing and related activities and how this affects management strategies adopted by the Project

The DICER Model: Methodological Issues and Initial Results

31 p.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.