Collective Organization of Complex Networks: Emergent Scales, Vulnerability, and Targeting of Desired Dynamics

Cuando una colectividad de sistemas dinámicos acoplados mediante una estructura irregular de interacciones evoluciona, se observan dinámicas de gran complejidad y fenómenos emergentes imposibles de predecir a partir de las propiedades de los sistemas individuales. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es precisamente avanzar en nuestra comprensión de la relación existente entre la topología de interacciones y las dinámicas colectivas que una red compleja es capaz de mantener. Siendo este un tema amplio que se puede abordar desde distintos puntos de vista, en esta tesis se han estudiado tres problemas importantes dentro del mismo que están relacionados entre sí. Por un lado, en numerosos sistemas naturales y artificiales que se pueden describir mediante una red compleja la topología no es estática, sino que depende de la dinámica que se desarrolla en la red: un ejemplo son las redes de neuronas del cerebro. En estas redes adaptativas la propia topología emerge como consecuencia de una autoorganización del sistema. Para conocer mejor cómo pueden emerger espontáneamente las propiedades comúnmente observadas en redes reales, hemos estudiado el comportamiento de sistemas que evolucionan según reglas adaptativas locales con base empírica. Nuestros resultados numéricos y analíticos muestran que la autoorganización del sistema da lugar a dos de las propiedades más universales de las redes complejas: a escala mesoscópica, la aparición de una estructura de comunidades, y, a escala macroscópica, la existencia de una ley de potencias en la distribución de las interacciones en la red. El hecho de que estas propiedades aparecen en dos modelos con leyes de evolución cuantitativamente distintas que siguen unos mismos principios adaptativos sugiere que estamos ante un fenómeno que puede ser muy general, y estar en el origen de estas propiedades en sistemas reales. En segundo lugar, proponemos una medida que permite clasificar los elementos de una red compleja en función de su relevancia para el mantenimiento de dinámicas colectivas. En concreto, estudiamos la vulnerabilidad de los distintos elementos de una red frente a perturbaciones o grandes fluctuaciones, entendida como una medida del impacto que estos acontecimientos externos tienen en la interrupción de una dinámica colectiva. Los resultados que se obtienen indican que la vulnerabilidad dinámica es sobre todo dependiente de propiedades locales, por tanto nuestras conclusiones abarcan diferentes topologías, y muestran la existencia de una dependencia no trivial entre la vulnerabilidad y la conectividad de los elementos de una red. Finalmente, proponemos una estrategia de imposición de una dinámica objetivo genérica en una red dada e investigamos su validez en redes con diversas topologías que mantienen regímenes dinámicos turbulentos. Se obtiene como resultado que las redes heterogéneas (y la amplia mayora de las redes reales estudiadas lo son) son las más adecuadas para nuestra estrategia de targeting de dinámicas deseadas, siendo la estrategia muy efectiva incluso en caso de disponer de un conocimiento muy imperfecto de la topología de la red. Aparte de la relevancia teórica para la comprensión de fenómenos colectivos en sistemas complejos, los métodos y resultados propuestos podrán dar lugar a aplicaciones en sistemas experimentales y tecnológicos, como por ejemplo los sistemas neuronales in vitro, el sistema nervioso central (en el estudio de actividades síncronas de carácter patológico), las redes eléctricas o los sistemas de comunicaciones. ABSTRACT The time evolution of an ensemble of dynamical systems coupled through an irregular interaction scheme gives rise to dynamics of great of complexity and emergent phenomena that cannot be predicted from the properties of the individual systems. The main objective of this thesis is precisely to increase our understanding of the interplay between the interaction topology and the collective dynamics that a complex network can support. This is a very broad subject, so in this thesis we will limit ourselves to the study of three relevant problems that have strong connections among them. First, it is a well-known fact that in many natural and manmade systems that can be represented as complex networks the topology is not static; rather, it depends on the dynamics taking place on the network (as it happens, for instance, in the neuronal networks in the brain). In these adaptive networks the topology itself emerges from the self-organization in the system. To better understand how the properties that are commonly observed in real networks spontaneously emerge, we have studied the behavior of systems that evolve according to local adaptive rules that are empirically motivated. Our numerical and analytical results show that self-organization brings about two of the most universally found properties in complex networks: at the mesoscopic scale, the appearance of a community structure, and, at the macroscopic scale, the existence of a power law in the weight distribution of the network interactions. The fact that these properties show up in two models with quantitatively different mechanisms that follow the same general adaptive principles suggests that our results may be generalized to other systems as well, and they may be behind the origin of these properties in some real systems. We also propose a new measure that provides a ranking of the elements in a network in terms of their relevance for the maintenance of collective dynamics. Specifically, we study the vulnerability of the elements under perturbations or large fluctuations, interpreted as a measure of the impact these external events have on the disruption of collective motion. Our results suggest that the dynamic vulnerability measure depends largely on local properties (our conclusions thus being valid for different topologies) and they show a non-trivial dependence of the vulnerability on the connectivity of the network elements. Finally, we propose a strategy for the imposition of generic goal dynamics on a given network, and we explore its performance in networks with different topologies that support turbulent dynamical regimes. It turns out that heterogeneous networks (and most real networks that have been studied belong in this category) are the most suitable for our strategy for the targeting of desired dynamics, the strategy being very effective even when the knowledge on the network topology is far from accurate. Aside from their theoretical relevance for the understanding of collective phenomena in complex systems, the methods and results here discussed might lead to applications in experimental and technological systems, such as in vitro neuronal systems, the central nervous system (where pathological synchronous activity sometimes occurs), communication systems or power grids.

Assessing the impact of adaptive accessibility on the optimal transport policy implementation by using an integrated land-use/transport model for Madrid

Accessibility is an essential concept widely used to evaluate the impact of land-use and transport strategies in transport and urban planning. Accessibility is typically evaluated by using a transport model or a land-use model independently or successively without a feedback loop, thus neglecting the interaction effects between the two systems and the induced competition effects among opportunities due to accessibility improvements. More than a mere methodological curiosity, failure to account for land- use/transport interactions and the competition effect may result in large underestimation of the policy effects. With the recent development of land-use and transport interaction (LUTI) models, there is a growing interest in using these models to adequately measure accessibility and evaluate its impact. The current study joins this research stream by embedding an accessibility measure in a LUTI model with two main aims. The first aim is to account for adaptive accessibility, namely the adjustment of the potential accessibility due to the effect of competition among opportunities (e.g., workplaces) as a result of improved accessibility. LUTI models are particularly suitable for assessing adaptive accessibility because the competition factor is a function of the number of jobs, which is related to land-use attractiveness and the number of workers which is related, among other factors, to the transport demand. The second aim is to identify the optimal implementation scenario of policy measures on the basis of the potential and adaptive accessibility and analyse the results in terms of social welfare and accessibility. The metropolitan area of Madrid is used as a case-study and two transport policy instruments, namely a cordon toll and bus frequency increase, have been chosen for the simulation study in order to present the usefulness of the approach to urban planners and policy makers. The MARS model (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) calibrated for Madrid was employed as the analysis tool. The impact of accessibility is embedded in the model through a social welfare function that includes not only costs and benefits to both road users and transport operators, but also costs and benefits for the government and society in general (external costs). An optimisation procedure is performed by the MARS model for maximizing the value of objective function in order to find the best (optimal) policy imp lementations intensity (i.e., price, frequency). Last, the two policy strategies are evaluated in terms of their accessibility. Results show that the accessibility with competition factor influences the optimal policy implementation level and also generates different results in terms of social welfare. In addition, mapping the difference between the potential and the adaptive accessibility indicators shows that the main changes occur in areas where there is a strong competition among land-use opportunities.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Estudio de las dinámicas de pérdida de peso corporal en los programas de ejercicio físico y nutrición = Study of the dynamics of body weight loss in exercise and nutritional programs

Introducción. La obesidad puede definirse como una enfermedad metabólica crónica de origen multifactorial, lo que provoca trastornos o problemas físicos y psicológicos a la persona, con patologías asociadas que limitan la esperanza de vida y deterioran la calidad de la misma, siendo determinante para sus áreas sociales y laborales. Este trastorno metabólico crónico se caracteriza por una acumulación excesiva de energía en el cuerpo en forma de grasa, lo que lleva a un aumento de peso con respecto al valor esperado por sexo, edad y altura. La gestión y el tratamiento de la obesidad tienen objetivos más amplios que la pérdida de peso e incluyen la reducción del riesgo y la mejora de la salud. Estos pueden ser alcanzados por la pérdida modesta de peso (es decir, 10.5% del peso corporal inicial), la mejora del contenido nutricional de la dieta y un modesto incremento en la actividad física y condición física. La dieta es uno de los métodos más populares para perder peso corporal. El ejercicio es otra alternativa para perder peso corporal. El aumento de ejercicio provoca un desequilibrio cuando se mantiene la ingesta calórica. También tiene ventajas, como la mejora del tono muscular, la capacidad cardiovascular, fuerza y flexibilidad, aumenta el metabolismo basal y mejora el sistema inmunológico. Objetivos. El objetivo de esta tesis es contribuir en un estudio de intervención para aclarar la evolución del peso corporal durante una intervención de dieta y ejercicio. Para ello, se evaluaron los efectos de la edad, sexo, índice de masa corporal inicial y el tipo de tratamiento en las tendencias de pérdida de peso. Otro objetivo de la tesis era crear un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple capaz de predecir la pérdida de peso corporal después del periodo de intervención. Y, por último, determinar el efecto sobre la composición corporal (peso corporal, índice de masa corporal, la masa grasa, y la masa libre de grasa) de las diferentes intervenciones basadas en ejercicios (fuerza, resistencia, resistencia combinada con fuerza, y las recomendaciones de actividad física (grupo control)) en combinación con dieta de adultos con sobrepeso y obesidad, después de la intervención, así como los cambios de la composición corporal 3 años más tarde. Diseño de la investigación. Los datos empleados en el análisis de esta tesis son parte del proyecto “Programas de Nutrición y Actividad Física para el tratamiento de la obesidad” (PRONAF). El proyecto PRONAF es un estudio clínico sobre programas de nutrición y actividad física para el sobrepeso y la obesidad, desarrollado en España durante varios años de intervención. Fue diseñado, en parte, para comparar diferentes tipos de intervención, con el objetivo de evaluar su impacto en las dinámicas de pérdida de peso, en personas con sobrepeso y obesidad. Como diseño experimental, el estudio se basó en una restricción calórica, a la que, en algunos casos, se le añadió un protocolo de entrenamiento (fuerza, resistencia, o combinado, en igualdad de volumen e intensidad). Las principales variables para la investigación que comprende esta tesis fueron: el peso corporal y la composición corporal (masa grasa y masa libre de grasa). Conclusiones. En esta tesis, para los programas de pérdida de peso en personas con sobrepeso y obesidad con un 25-30% de la restricción calórica, el peso corporal se redujo significativamente en ambos sexos, sin tener en cuenta la edad y el tipo de tratamiento seguido. Según los resultados del estudio, la pérdida de peso realizada por un individuo (hombre o mujer) durante los seis meses puede ser representada por cualquiera de las cinco funciones (lineal, potencial, exponencial, logarítmica y cuadrática) en ambos sexos, siendo la cuadrática la que tiende a representarlo mejor. Además, se puede concluir que la pérdida de peso corporal se ve afectada por el índice de masa corporal inicial y el sexo, siendo mayor para las personas obesas que para las de sobrepeso, que muestran diferencias entre sexos sólo en la condición de sobrepeso. Además, es posible calcular el peso corporal final de cualquier participante involucrado en una intervención utilizando la metodología del proyecto PRONAF sólo conociendo sus variables iniciales de composición corporal. Además, los cuatro tipos de tratamientos tuvieron resultados similares en cambios en la composición corporal al final del período de intervención, con la única excepción de la masa libre de grasa, siendo los grupos de entrenamiento los que la mantuvieron durante la restricción calórica. Por otro lado, sólo el grupo combinado logra mantener la reducción de la masa grasa (%) 3 años después del final de la intervención. ABSTRACT Introduction. Obesity can be defined as a chronic metabolic disease from a multifactorial origin, which leads to physical and psychological impacts to the person, with associated pathologies that limit the life expectancy and deteriorate the quality of it, being determinant for the social and labor areas of the person. This chronic metabolic disorder is characterized by an excessive accumulation of energy in the body as fat, leading to increased weight relative to the value expected by sex, age and height. The management and treatment of obesity have wider objectives than weight loss alone and include risk reduction and health improvement. These may be achieved by modest weight loss (i.e. 5–10% of initial body weight), improved nutritional content of the diet and modest increases in physical activity and fitness. Weight loss through diet is one of the most popular approaches to lose body weight. Exercise is another alternative to lose body weight. The increase of exercise causes an imbalance when the caloric intake is maintained. It also has advantages such as improved muscle tone, cardiovascular fitness, strength and flexibility, increases the basal metabolism and improves immune system. Objectives. The aim of this thesis is to contribute with an interventional study to clarify the evolution of the body weight during a diet and exercise intervention. For this, the effects of age, sex, initial body mass index and type of treatment on weight loss tendencies were evaluated. Another objective of the thesis was to create a multiple linear regression model able to predict the body weight loss after the intervention period. And, finally, to determine the effect upon body composition (body weight, body mass index, fat mass, and fat-free mass of different exercise-based interventions (strength, endurance, combined endurance and strength, and physical activity recommendations group (control group)) combined with diet in overweight and obese adults, after intervention as well as body composition changes 3 years later. Research Design. The data used in the analysis of this thesis are part of the project "Programs of Nutrition and Physical Activity for the treatment of obesity" (PRONAF). The PRONAF project is a clinical trial program about nutrition and physical activity for overweight and obesity, developed in Spain for several years of intervention. It was designed, in part, to compare different types of intervention, in order to assess their impact on the dynamics of weight loss in overweight and obese people. As experimental design, the study was based on caloric restriction, which, in some cases, added a training protocol (strength, endurance, or combined in equal volume and intensity). The main research variables comprising this thesis were: body weight and body composition outcomes (fat mass and fat-free mass). Conclusions. In this thesis, for weight loss programs in overweight and obese people with 25-30% of caloric restriction, the body weight was significantly decreased in both sexes, regardless the age and type of followed treatment. According to the results of the study, the weight loss performed by an individual (male or female) during six months can be represented by any of the five functions (linear, power law, exponential, logarithmic and quadratic) in both sexes, being the quadratic one which tends to represent it better. In addition, it can be concluded that the body weight loss is affected by the initial body mass index and sex condition, being greater for the obese people than for the overweight one, showing differences between sexes only in the overweight condition. Moreover, it is possible to calculate the final body weight of any participant engaged in an intervention using the PRONAF Project methodology only knowing their initial body composition variables. Furthermore, the four types of treatments had similar results on body composition changes at the end of the intervention period, with the only exception of fat-free mass, being the training groups the ones that maintained it during the caloric restriction. On the other hand, only the combined group achieved to maintain the fat mass (%) reduced 3 years after the end of the intervention.

Analysis of Combined Bending and Punching Tests of Reinforced Concrete Slabs within IMPACT III Project

The paper reports on a collaborative effort between the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) and their consultants Principia and Stangenberg. As part of the IMPACT III project, reduced scale impact tests of reinforced concrete structures were carried out. The simulation of test X3 is presented here and the numerical results are compared with those obtained in the test, carried out in August 2013. The general object is to improve the safety of nuclear facilities and, more specifically, to demonstrate the capabilities of current simulation techniques to reproduce the behaviour of a reinforced concrete structure impacted by a soft missile. The missile is a steel tube with a mass of 50 kg and travelling at 140 m/s. The target is a 250 mm thick, 2,1 m by 2,1 m reinforced concrete wall, held in a stiff supporting frame. The reinforcement includes both longitudinal and transverse rebars. Calculations were carried out before and after the test with Abaqus (Principia) and SOFiSTiK (Stangenberg). In the Abaqus simulation the concrete is modelled using solid elements and a damaged plasticity formulation, the rebars with embedded beam elements, and the missile with shell elements. In SOFiSTiK the target is modelled with non-linear, layered shell elements for the reinforcement on both sides; non-linear shear deformations of shell/plate elements are approximately included. The results generally indicate a good agreement between calculations and measurements.

Long-term dynamics of fast rotating tethers around planetary satellites

We derive a semi-analytic formulation that enables the study of the long-term dynamics of fast-rotating inert tethers around planetary satellites. These equations take into account the coupling between the translational and rotational motion, which has a non-negligible impact on the dynamics, as the orbital motion of the tether center of mass strongly depends on the tether plane of rotation and its spin rate, and vice-versa. We use these governing equations to explore the effects of this coupling on the dynamics, the lifetime of frozen orbits and the precession of the plane of rotation of the tether.

Magnetic Attitude Control System for a Small Satellite. Impact on the Thermal Performance

El principal objetivo de la tesis es estudiar el acoplamiento entre los subsistemas de control de actitud y de control térmico de un pequeño satélite, con el fin de buscar la solución a los problemas relacionados con la determinación de los parámetros de diseño. Se considera la evolución de la actitud y de las temperaturas del satélite bajo la influencia de dos estrategias de orientación diferentes: 1) estabilización magnética pasiva de la orientación (PMAS, passive magnetic attitude stabilization), y 2) control de actitud magnético activo (AMAC, active magnetic attitude control). En primer lugar se presenta el modelo matemático del problema, que incluye la dinámica rotacional y el modelo térmico. En el problema térmico se considera un satélite cúbico modelizado por medio de siete nodos (seis externos y uno interno) aplicando la ecuación del balance térmico. Una vez establecido el modelo matemático del problema, se estudia la evolución que corresponde a las dos estrategias mencionadas. La estrategia PMAS se ha seleccionado por su simplicidad, fiabilidad, bajo coste, ahorrando consumo de potencia, masa coste y complejidad, comparado con otras estrategias. Se ha considerado otra estrategia de control que consigue que el satélite gire a una velocidad requerida alrededor de un eje deseado de giro, pudiendo controlar su dirección en un sistema inercial de referencia, ya que frecuentemente el subsistema térmico establece requisitos de giro alrededor de un eje del satélite orientado en una dirección perpendicular a la radiación solar incidente. En relación con el problema térmico, para estudiar la influencia de la velocidad de giro en la evolución de las temperaturas en diversos puntos del satélite, se ha empleado un modelo térmico linealizado, obtenido a partir de la formulación no lineal aplicando un método de perturbaciones. El resultado del estudio muestra que el tiempo de estabilización de la temperatura y la influencia de las cargas periódicas externas disminuye cuando aumenta la velocidad de giro. Los cambios de temperatura se reducen hasta ser muy pequeños para velocidades de rotación altas. En relación con la estrategia PMAC se ha observado que a pesar de su uso extendido entre los micro y nano satélites todavía presenta problemas que resolver. Estos problemas están relacionados con el dimensionamiento de los parámetros del sistema y la predicción del funcionamiento en órbita. Los problemas aparecen debido a la dificultad en la determinación de las características magnéticas de los cuerpos ferromagnéticos (varillas de histéresis) que se utilizan como amortiguadores de oscilaciones en los satélites. Para estudiar este problema se presenta un modelo analítico que permite estimar la eficiencia del amortiguamiento, y que se ha aplicado al estudio del comportamiento en vuelo de varios satélites, y que se ha empleado para comparar los resultados del modelo con los obtenidos en vuelo, observándose que el modelo permite explicar satisfactoriamente el comportamiento registrado. ABSTRACT The main objective of this thesis is to study the coupling between the attitude control and thermal control subsystems of a small satellite, and address the solution to some existing issues concerning the determination of their parameters. Through the thesis the attitude and temperature evolution of the satellite is studied under the influence of two independent attitude stabilization and control strategies: (1) passive magnetic attitude stabilization (PMAS), and (2) active magnetic attitude control (AMAC). In this regard the mathematical model of the problem is explained and presented. The mathematical model includes both the rotational dynamics and the thermal model. The thermal model is derived for a cubic satellite by solving the heat balance equation for 6 external and 1 internal nodes. Once established the mathematical model of the problem, the above mentioned attitude strategies were applied to the system and the temperature evolution of the 7 nodes of the satellite was studied. The PMAS technique has been selected to be studied due to its prevalent use, simplicity, reliability, and cost, as this strategy significantly saves the overall power, weight, cost, and reduces the complexity of the system compared to other attitude control strategies. In addition to that, another control law that provides the satellite with a desired spin rate along a desired axis of the satellite, whose direction can be controlled with respect to the inertial reference frame is considered, as the thermal subsystem of a satellite usually demands a spin requirement around an axis of the satellite which is positioned perpendicular to the direction of the coming solar radiation. Concerning the thermal problem, to study the influence of spin rate on temperature evolution of the satellite a linear approach of the thermal model is used, which is based on perturbation theory applied to the nonlinear differential equations of the thermal model of a spacecraft moving in a closed orbit. The results of this study showed that the temperature stabilization time and the periodic influence of the external thermal loads decreases by increasing the spin rate. However, the changes become insignificant for higher values of spin rate. Concerning the PMAS strategy, it was observed that in spite of its extended application to micro and nano satellites, still there are some issues to be solved regarding this strategy. These issues are related to the sizing of its system parameters and predicting the in-orbit performance. The problems were found to be rooted in the difficulties that exist in determining the magnetic characteristics of the ferromagnetic bodies (hysteresis rods) that are applied as damping devices on-board satellites. To address these issues an analytic model for estimating their damping efficiency is proposed and applied to several existing satellites in order to compare the results with their respective in-flight data. This model can explain the behavior showed by these satellites.

Proactive and reactive thermal aware optimization techniques to minimize the environmental impact of data centers

Los Centros de Datos se encuentran actualmente en cualquier sector de la economía mundial. Están compuestos por miles de servidores, dando servicio a los usuarios de forma global, las 24 horas del día y los 365 días del año. Durante los últimos años, las aplicaciones del ámbito de la e-Ciencia, como la e-Salud o las Ciudades Inteligentes han experimentado un desarrollo muy significativo. La necesidad de manejar de forma eficiente las necesidades de cómputo de aplicaciones de nueva generación, junto con la creciente demanda de recursos en aplicaciones tradicionales, han facilitado el rápido crecimiento y la proliferación de los Centros de Datos. El principal inconveniente de este aumento de capacidad ha sido el rápido y dramático incremento del consumo energético de estas infraestructuras. En 2010, la factura eléctrica de los Centros de Datos representaba el 1.3% del consumo eléctrico mundial. Sólo en el año 2012, el consumo de potencia de los Centros de Datos creció un 63%, alcanzando los 38GW. En 2013 se estimó un crecimiento de otro 17%, hasta llegar a los 43GW. Además, los Centros de Datos son responsables de más del 2% del total de emisiones de dióxido de carbono a la atmósfera. Esta tesis doctoral se enfrenta al problema energético proponiendo técnicas proactivas y reactivas conscientes de la temperatura y de la energía, que contribuyen a tener Centros de Datos más eficientes. Este trabajo desarrolla modelos de energía y utiliza el conocimiento sobre la demanda energética de la carga de trabajo a ejecutar y de los recursos de computación y refrigeración del Centro de Datos para optimizar el consumo. Además, los Centros de Datos son considerados como un elemento crucial dentro del marco de la aplicación ejecutada, optimizando no sólo el consumo del Centro de Datos sino el consumo energético global de la aplicación. Los principales componentes del consumo en los Centros de Datos son la potencia de computación utilizada por los equipos de IT, y la refrigeración necesaria para mantener los servidores dentro de un rango de temperatura de trabajo que asegure su correcto funcionamiento. Debido a la relación cúbica entre la velocidad de los ventiladores y el consumo de los mismos, las soluciones basadas en el sobre-aprovisionamiento de aire frío al servidor generalmente tienen como resultado ineficiencias energéticas. Por otro lado, temperaturas más elevadas en el procesador llevan a un consumo de fugas mayor, debido a la relación exponencial del consumo de fugas con la temperatura. Además, las características de la carga de trabajo y las políticas de asignación de recursos tienen un impacto importante en los balances entre corriente de fugas y consumo de refrigeración. La primera gran contribución de este trabajo es el desarrollo de modelos de potencia y temperatura que permiten describes estos balances entre corriente de fugas y refrigeración; así como la propuesta de estrategias para minimizar el consumo del servidor por medio de la asignación conjunta de refrigeración y carga desde una perspectiva multivariable. Cuando escalamos a nivel del Centro de Datos, observamos un comportamiento similar en términos del balance entre corrientes de fugas y refrigeración. Conforme aumenta la temperatura de la sala, mejora la eficiencia de la refrigeración. Sin embargo, este incremente de la temperatura de sala provoca un aumento en la temperatura de la CPU y, por tanto, también del consumo de fugas. Además, la dinámica de la sala tiene un comportamiento muy desigual, no equilibrado, debido a la asignación de carga y a la heterogeneidad en el equipamiento de IT. La segunda contribución de esta tesis es la propuesta de técnicas de asigación conscientes de la temperatura y heterogeneidad que permiten optimizar conjuntamente la asignación de tareas y refrigeración a los servidores. Estas estrategias necesitan estar respaldadas por modelos flexibles, que puedan trabajar en tiempo real, para describir el sistema desde un nivel de abstracción alto. Dentro del ámbito de las aplicaciones de nueva generación, las decisiones tomadas en el nivel de aplicación pueden tener un impacto dramático en el consumo energético de niveles de abstracción menores, como por ejemplo, en el Centro de Datos. Es importante considerar las relaciones entre todos los agentes computacionales implicados en el problema, de forma que puedan cooperar para conseguir el objetivo común de reducir el coste energético global del sistema. La tercera contribución de esta tesis es el desarrollo de optimizaciones energéticas para la aplicación global por medio de la evaluación de los costes de ejecutar parte del procesado necesario en otros niveles de abstracción, que van desde los nodos hasta el Centro de Datos, por medio de técnicas de balanceo de carga. Como resumen, el trabajo presentado en esta tesis lleva a cabo contribuciones en el modelado y optimización consciente del consumo por fugas y la refrigeración de servidores; el modelado de los Centros de Datos y el desarrollo de políticas de asignación conscientes de la heterogeneidad; y desarrolla mecanismos para la optimización energética de aplicaciones de nueva generación desde varios niveles de abstracción. ABSTRACT Data centers are easily found in every sector of the worldwide economy. They consist of tens of thousands of servers, serving millions of users globally and 24-7. In the last years, e-Science applications such e-Health or Smart Cities have experienced a significant development. The need to deal efficiently with the computational needs of next-generation applications together with the increasing demand for higher resources in traditional applications has facilitated the rapid proliferation and growing of data centers. A drawback to this capacity growth has been the rapid increase of the energy consumption of these facilities. In 2010, data center electricity represented 1.3% of all the electricity use in the world. In year 2012 alone, global data center power demand grew 63% to 38GW. A further rise of 17% to 43GW was estimated in 2013. Moreover, data centers are responsible for more than 2% of total carbon dioxide emissions. This PhD Thesis addresses the energy challenge by proposing proactive and reactive thermal and energy-aware optimization techniques that contribute to place data centers on a more scalable curve. This work develops energy models and uses the knowledge about the energy demand of the workload to be executed and the computational and cooling resources available at data center to optimize energy consumption. Moreover, data centers are considered as a crucial element within their application framework, optimizing not only the energy consumption of the facility, but the global energy consumption of the application. The main contributors to the energy consumption in a data center are the computing power drawn by IT equipment and the cooling power needed to keep the servers within a certain temperature range that ensures safe operation. Because of the cubic relation of fan power with fan speed, solutions based on over-provisioning cold air into the server usually lead to inefficiencies. On the other hand, higher chip temperatures lead to higher leakage power because of the exponential dependence of leakage on temperature. Moreover, workload characteristics as well as allocation policies also have an important impact on the leakage-cooling tradeoffs. The first key contribution of this work is the development of power and temperature models that accurately describe the leakage-cooling tradeoffs at the server level, and the proposal of strategies to minimize server energy via joint cooling and workload management from a multivariate perspective. When scaling to the data center level, a similar behavior in terms of leakage-temperature tradeoffs can be observed. As room temperature raises, the efficiency of data room cooling units improves. However, as we increase room temperature, CPU temperature raises and so does leakage power. Moreover, the thermal dynamics of a data room exhibit unbalanced patterns due to both the workload allocation and the heterogeneity of computing equipment. The second main contribution is the proposal of thermal- and heterogeneity-aware workload management techniques that jointly optimize the allocation of computation and cooling to servers. These strategies need to be backed up by flexible room level models, able to work on runtime, that describe the system from a high level perspective. Within the framework of next-generation applications, decisions taken at this scope can have a dramatical impact on the energy consumption of lower abstraction levels, i.e. the data center facility. It is important to consider the relationships between all the computational agents involved in the problem, so that they can cooperate to achieve the common goal of reducing energy in the overall system. The third main contribution is the energy optimization of the overall application by evaluating the energy costs of performing part of the processing in any of the different abstraction layers, from the node to the data center, via workload management and off-loading techniques. In summary, the work presented in this PhD Thesis, makes contributions on leakage and cooling aware server modeling and optimization, data center thermal modeling and heterogeneityaware data center resource allocation, and develops mechanisms for the energy optimization for next-generation applications from a multi-layer perspective.

Computational and Experimental Modelling of Mooring Lines Dynamics for Offshore Floating Wind Turbines

El cálculo de cargas de aerogeneradores flotantes requiere herramientas de simulación en el dominio del tiempo que consideren todos los fenómenos que afectan al sistema, como la aerodinámica, la dinámica estructural, la hidrodinámica, las estrategias de control y la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo. Todos estos efectos están acoplados entre sí y se influyen mutuamente. Las herramientas integradas se utilizan para calcular las cargas extremas y de fatiga que son empleadas para dimensionar estructuralmente los diferentes componentes del aerogenerador. Por esta razón, un cálculo preciso de las cargas influye de manera importante en la optimización de los componentes y en el coste final del aerogenerador flotante. En particular, el sistema de fondeo tiene gran impacto en la dinámica global del sistema. Muchos códigos integrados para la simulación de aerogeneradores flotantes utilizan modelos simplificados que no consideran los efectos dinámicos de las líneas de fondeo. Una simulación precisa de las líneas de fondeo dentro de los modelos integrados puede resultar fundamental para obtener resultados fiables de la dinámica del sistema y de los niveles de cargas en los diferentes componentes. Sin embargo, el impacto que incluir la dinámica de los fondeos tiene en la simulación integrada y en las cargas todavía no ha sido cuantificada rigurosamente. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo dinámico para la simulación de líneas de fondeo con precisión, validarlo con medidas en un tanque de ensayos e integrarlo en un código de simulación para aerogeneradores flotantes. Finalmente, esta herramienta, experimentalmente validada, es utilizada para cuantificar el impacto que un modelos dinámicos de líneas de fondeo tienen en la computación de las cargas de fatiga y extremas de aerogeneradores flotantes en comparación con un modelo cuasi-estático. Esta es una información muy útil para los futuros diseñadores a la hora de decidir qué modelo de líneas de fondeo es el adecuado, dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y de los resultados esperados. El código dinámico de líneas de fondeo desarrollado en esta investigación se basa en el método de los Elementos Finitos, utilizando en concreto un modelo ”Lumped Mass” para aumentar su eficiencia de computación. Los experimentos realizados para la validación del código se realizaron en el tanque del École Céntrale de Nantes (ECN), en Francia, y consistieron en sumergir una cadena con uno de sus extremos anclados en el fondo del tanque y excitar el extremo suspendido con movimientos armónicos de diferentes periodos. El código demostró su capacidad para predecir la tensión y los movimientos en diferentes posiciones a lo largo de la longitud de la línea con gran precisión. Los resultados indicaron la importancia de capturar la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo para la predicción de la tensión especialmente en movimientos de alta frecuencia. Finalmente, el código se utilizó en una exhaustiva evaluación del efecto que la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo tiene sobre las cargas extremas y de fatiga de diferentes conceptos de aerogeneradores flotantes. Las cargas se calcularon para tres tipologías de aerogenerador flotante (semisumergible, ”spar-buoy” y ”tension leg platform”) y se compararon con las cargas obtenidas utilizando un modelo cuasi-estático de líneas de fondeo. Se lanzaron y postprocesaron más de 20.000 casos de carga definidos por la norma IEC 61400-3 siguiendo todos los requerimientos que una entidad certificadora requeriría a un diseñador industrial de aerogeneradores flotantes. Los resultados mostraron que el impacto de la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo, tanto en las cargas de fatiga como en las extremas, se incrementa conforme se consideran elementos situados más cerca de la plataforma: las cargas en la pala y en el eje sólo son ligeramente modificadas por la dinámica de las líneas, las cargas en la base de la torre pueden cambiar significativamente dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y, finalmente, la tensión en las líneas de fondeo depende fuertemente de la dinámica de las líneas, tanto en fatiga como en extremas, en todos los conceptos de plataforma que se han evaluado. ABSTRACT The load calculation of floating offshore wind turbine requires time-domain simulation tools taking into account all the phenomena that affect the system such as aerodynamics, structural dynamics, hydrodynamics, control actions and the mooring lines dynamics. These effects present couplings and are mutually influenced. The results provided by integrated simulation tools are used to compute the fatigue and ultimate loads needed for the structural design of the different components of the wind turbine. For this reason, their accuracy has an important influence on the optimization of the components and the final cost of the floating wind turbine. In particular, the mooring system greatly affects the global dynamics of the floater. Many integrated codes for the simulation of floating wind turbines use simplified approaches that do not consider the mooring line dynamics. An accurate simulation of the mooring system within the integrated codes can be fundamental to obtain reliable results of the system dynamics and the loads. The impact of taking into account the mooring line dynamics in the integrated simulation still has not been thoroughly quantified. The main objective of this research consists on the development of an accurate dynamic model for the simulation of mooring lines, validate it against wave tank tests and then integrate it in a simulation code for floating wind turbines. This experimentally validated tool is finally used to quantify the impact that dynamic mooring models have on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads of floating wind turbines in comparison with quasi-static tools. This information will be very useful for future designers to decide which mooring model is adequate depending on the platform type and the expected results. The dynamic mooring lines code developed in this research is based in the Finite Element Method and is oriented to the achievement of a computationally efficient code, selecting a Lumped Mass approach. The experimental tests performed for the validation of the code were carried out at the `Ecole Centrale de Nantes (ECN) wave tank in France, consisting of a chain submerged into a water basin, anchored at the bottom of the basin, where the suspension point of the chain was excited with harmonic motions of different periods. The code showed its ability to predict the tension and the motions at several positions along the length of the line with high accuracy. The results demonstrated the importance of capturing the evolution of the mooring dynamics for the prediction of the line tension, especially for the high frequency motions. Finally, the code was used for an extensive assessment of the effect of mooring dynamics on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads for different floating wind turbines. The loads were computed for three platforms topologies (semisubmersible, spar-buoy and tension leg platform) and compared with the loads provided using a quasi-static mooring model. More than 20,000 load cases were launched and postprocessed following the IEC 61400-3 guideline and fulfilling the conditions that a certification entity would require to an offshore wind turbine designer. The results showed that the impact of mooring dynamics in both fatigue and ultimate loads increases as elements located closer to the platform are evaluated; the blade and the shaft loads are only slightly modified by the mooring dynamics in all the platform designs, the tower base loads can be significantly affected depending on the platform concept and the mooring lines tension strongly depends on the lines dynamics both in fatigue and extreme loads in all the platform concepts evaluated.

Understanding how to reduce road transport emissions : modelling the impact of eco-driving

Entre los problemas medioambientales más trascendentales para la sociedad, se encuentra el del cambio climático así como el de la calidad del aire en nuestras áreas metropolitanas. El transporte por carretera es uno de los principales causantes, y como tal, las administraciones públicas se enfrentan a estos problemas desde varios ángulos: Cambios a modos de transporte más limpios, nuevas tecnologías y combustibles en los vehículos, gestión de la demanda y el uso de tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (ICT) aplicadas al transporte. En esta tesis doctoral se plantea como primer objetivo el profundizar en la comprensión de cómo ciertas medidas ICT afectan al tráfico, las emisiones y la propia dinámica de los vehículos. El estudio se basa en una campaña de recogida de datos con vehículos flotantes para evaluar los impactos de cuatro medidas concretas: Control de velocidad por tramo, límites variables de velocidad, limitador de velocidad (control de crucero) y conducción eficiente (eco‐driving). Como segundo objetivo, el estudio se centra en la conducción eficiente, ya que es una de las medidas que más ahorros de combustible presenta a nivel individual. Aunque estas reducciones están suficientemente documentadas en la literatura, muy pocos estudios se centran en estudiar el efecto que los conductores eficientes pueden tener en el flujo de tráfico, y cuál sería el impacto si se fuera aumentando el porcentaje de este tipo de conductores. A través de una herramienta de microsimulación de tráfico, se han construido cuatro modelos de vías urbanas que se corresponden con una autopista urbana, una arteria, un colector y una vía local. Gracias a los datos recogidos en la campaña de vehículos flotantes, se ha calibrado el modelo, tanto el escenario base como el ajuste de parámetros de conducción para simular la conducción eficiente. En total se han simulado 72 escenarios, variando el tipo de vía, la demanda de tráfico y el porcentaje de conductores eficientes. A continuación se han calculado las emisiones de CO2 and NOx mediante un modelo de emisiones a nivel microscópico. Los resultados muestran que en escenarios con alto porcentaje de conductores eficientes y altas demandas de tráfico las emisiones aumentan. Esto se debe a que las mayores distancias de seguridad y las aceleraciones y frenadas suaves hacen que aumente la congestión, produciendo así mayores emisiones a nivel global. Climate change and the reduced air quality in our metropolitan areas are two of the main environmental problems that the society is addressing currently. Being road transportation one of the main contributors, public administrations are facing these problems from different points of view: shift to cleaner modes, new fuels and vehicle technologies, demand management and the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) applied to transportation. The first objective of this thesis is to understand how certain ICT measures affect traffic, emissions and vehicle dynamics. The study is based on a data collection campaign with floating vehicles to evaluate the impact of four specific measures: section speed control, variable speed limits, cruise control and eco‐driving. The second objective of the study focuses on eco‐driving, as it is one of the measures that present the largest fuel savings at an individual level. Although these savings are well documented in the literature, few studies focus on how ecodrivers affect the surrounding vehicles and the traffic, and what would be the impact in case of different eco‐drivers percentage. Using a traffic micro‐simulation tool, four models in urban context have been built, corresponding to urban motorway, urban arterial, urban collector and a local street. Both the base‐case and the parameters setting to simulate eco‐driving have been calibrated with the data collected through floating vehicles. In total 72 scenarios were simulated, varying the type of road, traffic demand and the percentage of eco‐drivers. Then, the CO2 and NOx emissions have been estimated through the use of an emission model at microscopic level. The results show that in scenarios with high percentage of co‐drivers and high traffic demand the emissions rise. Higher headways and smooth acceleration and decelerations increase congestion, producing higher emissions globally.

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations

This work was financially supported by the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), (2851ERA01J). FT and RPR were supported by FACCE MACSUR (3200009600) through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM). EC, HE and EL were supported by The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (220-2007-1218) and by the strategic funding ‘Soil-Water-Landscape’ from the faculty of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) and thank professor P-E Jansson (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm) for support. JC, HR and DW thank the INRA ACCAF metaprogramm for funding and Eric Casellas from UR MIAT INRA for support. CB was funded by the Helmholtz project “REKLIM—Regional Climate Change”. CK was funded by the HGF Alliance “Remote Sensing and Earth System Dynamics” (EDA). FH was funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG) under the Grant FOR1695. FE and SS acknowledge support by the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1). HH, GZ, SS, TG and FE thank Andreas Enders and Gunther Krauss (INRES, University of Bonn) for support. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Impact of artifact correction methods on R-R interbeat signals to quantifying heart rate variability (HRV) according to linear and nonlinear methods.

In the analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) are used temporal series that contains the distances between successive heartbeats in order to assess autonomic regulation of the cardiovascular system. These series are obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis, which can be affected by different types of artifacts leading to incorrect interpretations in the analysis of the HRV signals. Classic approach to deal with these artifacts implies the use of correction methods, some of them based on interpolation, substitution or statistical techniques. However, there are few studies that shows the accuracy and performance of these correction methods on real HRV signals. This study aims to determine the performance of some linear and non-linear correction methods on HRV signals with induced artefacts by quantification of its linear and nonlinear HRV parameters. As part of the methodology, ECG signals of rats measured using the technique of telemetry were used to generate real heart rate variability signals without any error. In these series were simulated missing points (beats) in different quantities in order to emulate a real experimental situation as accurately as possible. In order to compare recovering efficiency, deletion (DEL), linear interpolation (LI), cubic spline interpolation (CI), moving average window (MAW) and nonlinear predictive interpolation (NPI) were used as correction methods for the series with induced artifacts. The accuracy of each correction method was known through the results obtained after the measurement of the mean value of the series (AVNN), standard deviation (SDNN), root mean square error of the differences between successive heartbeats (RMSSD), Lomb\'s periodogram (LSP), Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), multiscale entropy (MSE) and symbolic dynamics (SD) on each HRV signal with and without artifacts. The results show that, at low levels of missing points the performance of all correction techniques are very similar with very close values for each HRV parameter. However, at higher levels of losses only the NPI method allows to obtain HRV parameters with low error values and low quantity of significant differences in comparison to the values calculated for the same signals without the presence of missing points.

The electron-furfural scattering dynamics for 63 energetically open electronic states

We report on integral-, momentum transfer-and differential cross sections for elastic and electronically inelastic electron collisions with furfural (C5H4O2). The calculations were performed with two different theoretical methodologies, the Schwinger multichannel method with pseudopotentials (SMCPP) and the independent atom method with screening corrected additivity rule (IAM-SCAR) that now incorporates a further interference (I) term. The SMCPP with N energetically open electronic states (N-open) at either the static-exchange (N-open ch-SE) or the static-exchange-plus-polarisation (N-open ch-SEP) approximation was employed to calculate the scattering amplitudes at impact energies lying between 5 eV and 50 eV, using a channel coupling scheme that ranges from the 1ch-SEP up to the 63ch-SE level of approximation depending on the energy considered. For elastic scattering, we found very good overall agreement at higher energies among our SMCPP cross sections, our IAM-SCAR+I cross sections and the experimental data for furan (a molecule that differs from furfural only by the substitution of a hydrogen atom in furan with an aldehyde functional group). This is a good indication that our elastic cross sections are converged with respect to the multichannel coupling effect for most of the investigated intermediate energies. However, although the present application represents the most sophisticated calculation performed with the SMCPP method thus far, the inelastic cross sections, even for the low lying energy states, are still not completely converged for intermediate and higher energies. We discuss possible reasons leading to this discrepancy and point out what further steps need to be undertaken in order to improve the agreement between the calculated and measured cross sections. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe. Impact of visa abolition. OSW Report, July 2014

This book is the result of one year of solid work among a multinational research team assembled from seven states (Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova). It aims at a detailed analysis of migration patterns and migration forecasts from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to the EU/V4. In particular, the nexus between EU visa policy and migration dynamics as well as the impact of economic, political and institutional factors on migration from Eastern Europe have been investigated. The importance of migration policy must be stressed here. Together with demand for the foreign labour force (labour market needs, level of wages, existing work opportunities) and migration networks (including ethnic links), migration policy has a powerful influence on the scale, directions and characteristics of human flows.

The Sustainability Impact of the EU Emissions Trading System on the European Industry. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 17/2007

This BEEP explains the mechanism of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) for the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and explore into its likely sustainability impact on European industry. In doing so, it focuses on energy-intensive industries like cement, steel and aluminium production as well as on the emerging hydrogen economy. The BEEP concludes that at the moment it is still very inconsistently implemented and has a fairly narrow scope regarding greenhouse gases and involved sectors. It may also give an incentive to relocate for energy-intensive industries. In its current format, the EU ETS does not yet properly facilitate long term innovation dynamics such as the transition to a hydrogen economy. Nevertheless, the EU ETS is foremost a working system that – with some improvements – has the potential to become a pillar for effective and efficient climate change policy that also gives incentives for investment into climate friendly policies.