The 2006 Eiger rockslide, European Alps

In July 2006, approximately 2 million m3 of massive limestone began to move on the east flank of the Eiger in central Switzerland. For more than two years after the initial failure, the rock mass moved at rates of up to 70 cm per day. A detailed analysis of the structures and velocities of the different moving blocks was conducted with the aid of terrestrial laser scanning. The moving rock mass included a rear block that subsided, pushing a frontal block forward. Movement directions were controlled by discontinuity sets that formed wedges bounded on one side by sub-vertical bedding planes. The instability was, until recently, buttressed by a glacier. Slope observations and results of continuum and discontinuum modeling indicate that the structure of the rock mass and topography were the main causes of the instability. Progressive weathering and mechanical fatigue of the rock mass appear to have led to the failure. A dynamic analytical model further indicates that the rockslide was primarily controlled by a reduction in the strength of discontinuities, the effects of ice deformation, and ? to a limited extent ? groundwater flow. This study shows that realistic and simple instability models can be constructed for rock-slope failures if high-resolution data are available.

Extreme times in financial markets.

We apply the theory of continuous time random walks (CTRWs) to study some aspects involving extreme events in financial time series. We focus our attention on the mean exit time (MET). We derive a general equation for this average and compare it with empirical results coming from high-frequency data of the U.S. dollar and Deutsche mark futures market. The empirical MET follows a quadratic law in the return length interval which is consistent with the CTRW formalism.

Minimal analytical characterisation of engineered nanomaterials need for hazard assessment in biological matrices

The safe and responsible development of engineered nanomaterials (ENM), nanotechnology-based materials and products, together with the definition of regulatory measures and implementation of "nano"-legislation in Europe require a widely supported scientific basis and sufficient high quality data upon which to base decisions. At the very core of such a scientific basis is a general agreement on key issues related to risk assessment of ENMs which encompass the key parameters to characterise ENMs, appropriate methods of analysis and best approach to express the effect of ENMs in widely accepted dose response toxicity tests. The following major conclusions were drawn: Due to high batch variability of ENMs characteristics of commercially available and to a lesser degree laboratory made ENMs it is not possible to make general statements regarding the toxicity resulting from exposure to ENMs. 1) Concomitant with using the OECD priority list of ENMs, other criteria for selection of ENMs like relevance for mechanistic (scientific) studies or risk assessment-based studies, widespread availability (and thus high expected volumes of use) or consumer concern (route of consumer exposure depending on application) could be helpful. The OECD priority list is focussing on validity of OECD tests. Therefore source material will be first in scope for testing. However for risk assessment it is much more relevant to have toxicity data from material as present in products/matrices to which men and environment are be exposed. 2) For most, if not all characteristics of ENMs, standardized methods analytical methods, though not necessarily validated, are available. Generally these methods are only able to determine one single characteristic and some of them can be rather expensive. Practically, it is currently not feasible to fully characterise ENMs. Many techniques that are available to measure the same nanomaterial characteristic produce contrasting results (e.g. reported sizes of ENMs). It was recommended that at least two complementary techniques should be employed to determine a metric of ENMs. The first great challenge is to prioritise metrics which are relevant in the assessment of biological dose response relations and to develop analytical methods for characterising ENMs in biological matrices. It was generally agreed that one metric is not sufficient to describe fully ENMs. 3) Characterisation of ENMs in biological matrices starts with sample preparation. It was concluded that there currently is no standard approach/protocol for sample preparation to control agglomeration/aggregation and (re)dispersion. It was recommended harmonization should be initiated and that exchange of protocols should take place. The precise methods used to disperse ENMs should be specifically, yet succinctly described within the experimental section of a publication. 4) ENMs need to be characterised in the matrix as it is presented to the test system (in vitro/ in vivo). 5) Alternative approaches (e.g. biological or in silico systems) for the characterisation of ENMS are simply not possible with the current knowledge. Contributors: Iseult Lynch, Hans Marvin, Kenneth Dawson, Markus Berges, Diane Braguer, Hugh J. Byrne, Alan Casey, Gordon Chambers, Martin Clift, Giuliano Elia1, Teresa F. Fernandes, Lise Fjellsbø, Peter Hatto, Lucienne Juillerat, Christoph Klein, Wolfgang Kreyling, Carmen Nickel1, and Vicki Stone.

Crystallization and resolution of the lipoxygenase of Pseudomonas aeruginosa 42A2 and phylogenetic study of the subfamilies of the lipoxygenases

Lipoxygenases are non-heme iron enzymes essential in eukaryotes, where they catalyze the formation of the fatty acid hydroperoxides that are required by a large diversity of biological and pathological processes. In prokaryotes, most of them totally lacking in polyunsaturated fatty acids, the possible biological roles oflipoxygenases have remained obscure. In this study, it is reported the crystallization of a lipoxygenase of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa_LOX), the first from a prokaryote. High resolution data has been acquired which is expected to yield structural clues to the questions adressed. Besides, a preliminar phylogenetic analysis using 14 sequences has confirmed the existence of this subfamily of bacterial lipoxygenases, on one side, and a greater diversity than in the corresponding eukaryotic ones, on the other. Finally, an evolutionary study of bacteriallipoxygenases on the same set of lipoxygenases, show a selection pressure of a basically purifying or neutral character except for a single aminoacid, which would have been selected after a positive selection event.

Crystallization and resolution of the lipoxygenase of Pseudomonas aeruginosa 42A2 and phylogenetic study of the subfamilies of the lipoxygenases

Lipoxygenases are non-heme iron enzymes essential in eukaryotes, where they catalyze the formation of the fatty acid hydroperoxides that are required by a large diversity of biological and pathological processes. In prokaryotes, most of them totally lacking in polyunsaturated fatty acids, the possible biological roles oflipoxygenases have remained obscure. In this study, it is reported the crystallization of a lipoxygenase of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa_LOX), the first from a prokaryote. High resolution data has been acquired which is expected to yield structural clues to the questions adressed. Besides, a preliminar phylogenetic analysis using 14 sequences has confirmed the existence of this subfamily of bacterial lipoxygenases, on one side, and a greater diversity than in the corresponding eukaryotic ones, on the other. Finally, an evolutionary study of bacteriallipoxygenases on the same set of lipoxygenases, show a selection pressure of a basically purifying or neutral character except for a single aminoacid, which would have been selected after a positive selection event.

Minimal analytical characterization of engineered nanomaterials needed for hazard assessment in biological matrices.

Abstract This paper presents the outcomes from a workshop of the European Network on the Health and Environmental Impact of Nanomaterials (NanoImpactNet). During the workshop, 45 experts in the field of safety assessment of engineered nanomaterials addressed the need to systematically study sets of engineered nanomaterials with specific metrics to generate a data set which would allow the establishment of dose-response relations. The group concluded that international cooperation and worldwide standardization of terminology, reference materials and protocols are needed to make progress in establishing lists of essential metrics. High quality data necessitates the development of harmonized study approaches and adequate reporting of data. Priority metrics can only be based on well-characterized dose-response relations derived from the systematic study of the bio-kinetics and bio-interactions of nanomaterials at both organism and (sub)-cellular levels. In addition, increased effort is needed to develop and validate analytical methods to determine these metrics in a complex matrix.

Comparative modular analysis of gene expression in vertebrate development

The focus of my PhD research was the concept of modularity. In the last 15 years, modularity has become a classic term in different fields of biology. On the conceptual level, a module is a set of interacting elements that remain mostly independent from the elements outside of the module. I used modular analysis techniques to study gene expression evolution in vertebrates. In particular, I identified ``natural'' modules of gene expression in mouse and human, and I showed that expression of organ-specific and system-specific genes tends to be conserved between such distance vertebrates as mammals and fishes. Also with a modular approach, I studied patterns of developmental constraints on transcriptome evolution. I showed that none of the two commonly accepted models of the evolution of embryonic development (``evo-devo'') are exclusively valid. In particular, I found that the conservation of the sequences of regulatory regions is highest during mid-development of zebrafish, and thus it supports the ``hourglass model''. In contrast, events of gene duplication and new gene introduction are most rare in early development, which supports the ``early conservation model''. In addition to the biological insights on transcriptome evolution, I have also discussed in detail the advantages of modular approaches in large-scale data analysis. Moreover, I re-analyzed several studies (published in high-ranking journals), and showed that their conclusions do not hold out under a detailed analysis. This demonstrates that complex analysis of high-throughput data requires a co-operation between biologists, bioinformaticians, and statisticians.

Multifractal portrayal of the distribution of the Swiss population

The present research studies the spatial patterns of the distribution of the Swiss population (DSP). This description is carried out using a wide variety of global spatial structural analysis tools such as topological, statistical and fractal measures, which enable the estimation of the spatial degree of clustering of a point pattern. A particular attention is given to the analysis of the multifractality to characterize the spatial structure of the DSP at different scales. This will be achieved by measuring the generalized q-dimensions and the singularity spectrum. This research is based on high quality data of the Swiss Population Census of the Year 2000 at a hectometric resolution (grid 100 x 100 m) issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

ABS: a database of Annotated regulatory Binding Sites from orthologous promoters

Information about the genomic coordinates and the sequence of experimentally identified transcription factor binding sites is found scattered under a variety of diverse formats. The availability of standard collections of such high-quality data is important to design, evaluate and improve novel computational approaches to identify binding motifs on promoter sequences from related genes. ABS (http://genome.imim.es/datasets/abs2005/index.html) is a public database of known binding sites identified in promoters of orthologous vertebrate genes that have been manually curated from bibliography. We have annotated 650 experimental binding sites from 68 transcription factors and 100 orthologous target genes in human, mouse, rat or chicken genome sequences. Computational predictions and promoter alignment information are also provided for each entry. A simple and easy-to-use web interface facilitates data retrieval allowing different views of the information. In addition, the release 1.0 of ABS includes a customizable generator of artificial datasets based on the known sites contained in the collection and an evaluation tool to aid during the training and the assessment of motif-finding programs.

Approximate polytope ensemble for one-class classification

In this work, a new one-class classification ensemble strategy called approximate polytope ensemble is presented. The main contribution of the paper is threefold. First, the geometrical concept of convex hull is used to define the boundary of the target class defining the problem. Expansions and contractions of this geometrical structure are introduced in order to avoid over-fitting. Second, the decision whether a point belongs to the convex hull model in high dimensional spaces is approximated by means of random projections and an ensemble decision process. Finally, a tiling strategy is proposed in order to model non-convex structures. Experimental results show that the proposed strategy is significantly better than state of the art one-class classification methods on over 200 datasets.

Design and methodology of the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS): a comprehensive prospective nationwide long-term follow-up cohort.

In Switzerland, organ procurement is well organized at the national-level but transplant outcomes have not been systematically monitored so far. Therefore, a novel project, the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS), was established. The STCS is a prospective multicentre study, designed as a dynamic cohort, which enrolls all solid organ recipients at the national level. The features of the STCS are a flexible patient-case system that allows capturing all transplant scenarios and collection of patient-specific and allograft-specific data. Beyond comprehensive clinical data, specific focus is directed at psychosocial and behavioral factors, infectious disease development, and bio-banking. Between May 2008 and end of 2011, the six Swiss transplant centers recruited 1,677 patients involving 1,721 transplantations, and a total of 1,800 organs implanted in 15 different transplantation scenarios. 10 % of all patients underwent re-transplantation and 3% had a second transplantation, either in the past or during follow-up. 34% of all kidney allografts originated from living donation. Until the end of 2011 we observed 4,385 infection episodes in our patient population. The STCS showed operative capabilities to collect high-quality data and to adequately reflect the complexity of the post-transplantation process. The STCS represents a promising novel project for comparative effectiveness research in transplantation medicine.

Genome-wide transcriptional responses to shade: Linking shade avoidance and auxin

Plants have the ability to use the composition of incident light as a cue to adapt development and growth to their environment. Arabidopsis thaliana as well as many crops are best adapted to sunny habitats. When subjected to shade, these plants exhibit a variety of physiological responses collectively called shade avoidance syndrome (SAS). It includes increased growth of hypocotyl and petioles, decreased growth rate of cotyledons and reduced branching and crop yield. These responses are mainly mediated by phytochrome photoreceptors, which exist either in an active, far-red light (FR) absorbing or an inactive, red light (R) absorbing isoform. In direct sunlight, the R to FR light (R/FR) ratio is high and converts the phytochromes into their physiologically active state. The phytochromes interact with downstream transcription factors such as PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR (PIF), which are subsequently degraded. Light filtered through a canopy is strongly depleted in R, which result in a low R/FR ratio and renders the phytochromes inactive. Protein levels of downstream transcription factors are stabilized, which initiates the expression of shade-induced genes such as HFR1, PIL1 or ATHB-2. In my thesis, I investigated transcriptional responses mediated by the SAS in whole Arabidopsis seedlings. Using microarray and chromatin immunoprecipitation data, we identified genome-wide PIF4 and PIF5 dependent shade regulated gene as well as putative direct target genes of PIF5. This revealed evidence for a direct regulatory link between phytochrome signaling and the growth promoting phytohormone auxin (IAA) at the level of biosynthesis, transport and signaling. Subsequently, it was shown, that free-IAA levels are upregulated in response to shade. It is assumed that shade-induced auxin production takes predominantly place in cotyledons of seedlings. This implies, that IAA is subsequently transported basipetally to the hypocotyl and enhances elongation growth. The importance of auxin transport for growth responses has been established by chemical and genetic approaches. To gain a better understanding of spatio-temporal transcriptional regulation of shade-induce auxin, I generated in a second project, an organ specific high throughput data focusing on cotyledon and hypocotyl of young Arabidopsis seedlings. Interestingly, both organs show an opposite growth regulation by shade. I first investigated the spatio-transcriptional regulation of auxin re- sponsive gene, in order to determine how broad gene expression pattern can be explained by the hypothesized movement of auxin from cotyledons to hypocotyls in shade. The analysis suggests, that several genes are indeed regulated according to our prediction and others are regulated in a more complex manner. In addition, analysis of gene families of auxin biosynthetic and transport components, lead to the identification of essential family members for shade-induced growth re- sponses, which were subsequently experimentally confirmed. Finally, the analysis of expression pattern identified several candidate genes, which possibly explain aspects of the opposite growth response of the different organs.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Physiological noise in human cerebellar fMRI.

OBJECTIVES: To compare physiological noise contributions in cerebellar and cerebral regions of interest in high-resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired at 7T, to estimate the need for physiological noise removal in cerebellar fMRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Signal fluctuations in high resolution (1 mm isotropic) 7T fMRI data were attributed to one of the following categories: task-induced BOLD changes, slow drift, signal changes correlated with the cardiac and respiratory cycles, signal changes related to the cardiac rate and respiratory volume per unit of time or other. [Formula: see text] values for all categories were compared across regions of interest. RESULTS: In this high-resolution data, signal fluctuations related to the phase of the cardiac cycle and cardiac rate were shown to be significant, but comparable between cerebellar and cerebral regions of interest. However, respiratory related signal fluctuations were increased in the cerebellar regions, with explained variances that were up to 80 % higher than for the primary motor cortex region. CONCLUSION: Even at a millimetre spatial resolution, significant correlations with both cardiac and respiratory RETROICOR components were found in all healthy volunteer data. Therefore, physiological noise correction is highly likely to improve the temporal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for cerebellar fMRI at 7T, even at high spatial resolution.

Error models in hydrogeology applications

Notre consommation en eau souterraine, en particulier comme eau potable ou pour l'irrigation, a considérablement augmenté au cours des années. De nombreux problèmes font alors leur apparition, allant de la prospection de nouvelles ressources à la remédiation des aquifères pollués. Indépendamment du problème hydrogéologique considéré, le principal défi reste la caractérisation des propriétés du sous-sol. Une approche stochastique est alors nécessaire afin de représenter cette incertitude en considérant de multiples scénarios géologiques et en générant un grand nombre de réalisations géostatistiques. Nous rencontrons alors la principale limitation de ces approches qui est le coût de calcul dû à la simulation des processus d'écoulements complexes pour chacune de ces réalisations. Dans la première partie de la thèse, ce problème est investigué dans le contexte de propagation de l'incertitude, oú un ensemble de réalisations est identifié comme représentant les propriétés du sous-sol. Afin de propager cette incertitude à la quantité d'intérêt tout en limitant le coût de calcul, les méthodes actuelles font appel à des modèles d'écoulement approximés. Cela permet l'identification d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations représentant la variabilité de l'ensemble initial. Le modèle complexe d'écoulement est alors évalué uniquement pour ce sousensemble, et, sur la base de ces réponses complexes, l'inférence est faite. Notre objectif est d'améliorer la performance de cette approche en utilisant toute l'information à disposition. Pour cela, le sous-ensemble de réponses approximées et exactes est utilisé afin de construire un modèle d'erreur, qui sert ensuite à corriger le reste des réponses approximées et prédire la réponse du modèle complexe. Cette méthode permet de maximiser l'utilisation de l'information à disposition sans augmentation perceptible du temps de calcul. La propagation de l'incertitude est alors plus précise et plus robuste. La stratégie explorée dans le premier chapitre consiste à apprendre d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations la relation entre les modèles d'écoulement approximé et complexe. Dans la seconde partie de la thèse, cette méthodologie est formalisée mathématiquement en introduisant un modèle de régression entre les réponses fonctionnelles. Comme ce problème est mal posé, il est nécessaire d'en réduire la dimensionnalité. Dans cette optique, l'innovation du travail présenté provient de l'utilisation de l'analyse en composantes principales fonctionnelles (ACPF), qui non seulement effectue la réduction de dimensionnalités tout en maximisant l'information retenue, mais permet aussi de diagnostiquer la qualité du modèle d'erreur dans cet espace fonctionnel. La méthodologie proposée est appliquée à un problème de pollution par une phase liquide nonaqueuse et les résultats obtenus montrent que le modèle d'erreur permet une forte réduction du temps de calcul tout en estimant correctement l'incertitude. De plus, pour chaque réponse approximée, une prédiction de la réponse complexe est fournie par le modèle d'erreur. Le concept de modèle d'erreur fonctionnel est donc pertinent pour la propagation de l'incertitude, mais aussi pour les problèmes d'inférence bayésienne. Les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov (MCMC) sont les algorithmes les plus communément utilisés afin de générer des réalisations géostatistiques en accord avec les observations. Cependant, ces méthodes souffrent d'un taux d'acceptation très bas pour les problèmes de grande dimensionnalité, résultant en un grand nombre de simulations d'écoulement gaspillées. Une approche en deux temps, le "MCMC en deux étapes", a été introduite afin d'éviter les simulations du modèle complexe inutiles par une évaluation préliminaire de la réalisation. Dans la troisième partie de la thèse, le modèle d'écoulement approximé couplé à un modèle d'erreur sert d'évaluation préliminaire pour le "MCMC en deux étapes". Nous démontrons une augmentation du taux d'acceptation par un facteur de 1.5 à 3 en comparaison avec une implémentation classique de MCMC. Une question reste sans réponse : comment choisir la taille de l'ensemble d'entrainement et comment identifier les réalisations permettant d'optimiser la construction du modèle d'erreur. Cela requiert une stratégie itérative afin que, à chaque nouvelle simulation d'écoulement, le modèle d'erreur soit amélioré en incorporant les nouvelles informations. Ceci est développé dans la quatrième partie de la thèse, oú cette méthodologie est appliquée à un problème d'intrusion saline dans un aquifère côtier. -- Our consumption of groundwater, in particular as drinking water and for irrigation, has considerably increased over the years and groundwater is becoming an increasingly scarce and endangered resource. Nofadays, we are facing many problems ranging from water prospection to sustainable management and remediation of polluted aquifers. Independently of the hydrogeological problem, the main challenge remains dealing with the incomplete knofledge of the underground properties. Stochastic approaches have been developed to represent this uncertainty by considering multiple geological scenarios and generating a large number of realizations. The main limitation of this approach is the computational cost associated with performing complex of simulations in each realization. In the first part of the thesis, we explore this issue in the context of uncertainty propagation, where an ensemble of geostatistical realizations is identified as representative of the subsurface uncertainty. To propagate this lack of knofledge to the quantity of interest (e.g., the concentration of pollutant in extracted water), it is necessary to evaluate the of response of each realization. Due to computational constraints, state-of-the-art methods make use of approximate of simulation, to identify a subset of realizations that represents the variability of the ensemble. The complex and computationally heavy of model is then run for this subset based on which inference is made. Our objective is to increase the performance of this approach by using all of the available information and not solely the subset of exact responses. Two error models are proposed to correct the approximate responses follofing a machine learning approach. For the subset identified by a classical approach (here the distance kernel method) both the approximate and the exact responses are knofn. This information is used to construct an error model and correct the ensemble of approximate responses to predict the "expected" responses of the exact model. The proposed methodology makes use of all the available information without perceptible additional computational costs and leads to an increase in accuracy and robustness of the uncertainty propagation. The strategy explored in the first chapter consists in learning from a subset of realizations the relationship between proxy and exact curves. In the second part of this thesis, the strategy is formalized in a rigorous mathematical framework by defining a regression model between functions. As this problem is ill-posed, it is necessary to reduce its dimensionality. The novelty of the work comes from the use of functional principal component analysis (FPCA), which not only performs the dimensionality reduction while maximizing the retained information, but also allofs a diagnostic of the quality of the error model in the functional space. The proposed methodology is applied to a pollution problem by a non-aqueous phase-liquid. The error model allofs a strong reduction of the computational cost while providing a good estimate of the uncertainty. The individual correction of the proxy response by the error model leads to an excellent prediction of the exact response, opening the door to many applications. The concept of functional error model is useful not only in the context of uncertainty propagation, but also, and maybe even more so, to perform Bayesian inference. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms are the most common choice to ensure that the generated realizations are sampled in accordance with the observations. Hofever, this approach suffers from lof acceptance rate in high dimensional problems, resulting in a large number of wasted of simulations. This led to the introduction of two-stage MCMC, where the computational cost is decreased by avoiding unnecessary simulation of the exact of thanks to a preliminary evaluation of the proposal. In the third part of the thesis, a proxy is coupled to an error model to provide an approximate response for the two-stage MCMC set-up. We demonstrate an increase in acceptance rate by a factor three with respect to one-stage MCMC results. An open question remains: hof do we choose the size of the learning set and identify the realizations to optimize the construction of the error model. This requires devising an iterative strategy to construct the error model, such that, as new of simulations are performed, the error model is iteratively improved by incorporating the new information. This is discussed in the fourth part of the thesis, in which we apply this methodology to a problem of saline intrusion in a coastal aquifer.