975 resultados para Global Solar-radiation


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The Earth receives annually 1,5.1018 kWh of solar energy, which corresponds to 1000 times the world energy consumption in this period. This fact comes out that, besides being responsible for the maintenance of life on Earth, the solar radiation is in an inexhaustible energy source, with an enormous potential for use by systems capture and conversion into another form of energy. In many applications of low power systems that convert light directly into electricity, called photovoltaic advantageously replace other means of production processes, where its distribution is very significant. The determination of the power generated by such a system is of paramount importance for the design energy of its implementation and evaluation of the system itself. This study aims to determine a relationship between the maximum power generated by solar photovoltaic and characteristic parameters of the generator. This relationship allows to evaluate the performance of such a system. For simulations of the developed equations were used 3 photovoltaic modules with an output of 100 Wp each, and data collection was performed during one year by enrolling in addition to meteorological data, solar irradiance incident on the modules.

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This work presents an analysis of the pattern variation of the sky conditions in Botucatu/SP. The classification was based on the clarness index KT. It was used in the classification a database of global solar irradiance in the horizontal, measured at Radiometric Station of UNESP in Botucatu (latitude 22.85°S, longitude 48.43°W, altitude 786 m) from 1996 to 2005. We analyzed the variations in frequency, during the photoperiod and over the year, of the sky conditions: I - Cloudy (KT < 0.35); II - party cloudy with dominance for the diffuse (0.35 < 0.55 < KT)) III - party cloudy with dominance for the clear (0.55 < KT < 0.65) and IV - clear (KT > 0.65). The frequency of sky conditions I and II are higher during the rainy season of the year and in hours close to sunrise and sunset. And it is lower during the dry season an in hours near noon, in wich there is a predominance of sky conditions III and IV. The monthly hourly frequency of sky condition I ranged from 46,91% of the photoperiod in January to 25.27% in August. And the frequency monthly daily ranged from nine days in January to three days in August. To the sky condition IV, the frequency monthly hourly ranged from 38.81% of the photoperiod in August to 18.17% im January. And the frequency monthly daily ranged from 17 days in August to three days in January.

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Evaluated statistical equations estimates (based on radiometric fractions) of the hourly diffuse radiation incident on inclined surfaces for the North to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85°, the climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. The database was generated from April/1998 to December/2007, with measures in the three tilted surfaces in different periods, but concomitant to the horizontal plane. In the validation of the equations were used indicative statistics MBE (mean absolute error), RMSE (square root mean square error) and index adjustment (d) for three inclinations and conditions of sky coverage. The increased angle of inclination of the surface led to increased scattering of hourly values for the coefficient of atmospheric transmissivity of diffuse radiation for inclined and horizontal surfaces. Estimates of diffuse radiation on the basis of hourly tilted horizontal global radiation occur for quadratic polynomial models, which adjust K'Dβ maximum values of between 0.14 and 0.30 for winter and summer when KTH varies between 0.40 and 0.66, indicating that energy, the highest values of diffuse radiation occur in partly cloudy sky conditions and / or partially open. The increase in atmospheric transmissivity decreases the performance of annual and monthly equations at all inclinations.

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Abstract Yellowstone National Park is located over a hot spot under the North American tectonic plate and holds a potentially explosive super-volcano that has the ability to cause deadly consequences on the North American continent. After an eruption the surrounding region would see the greatest devastation, covered by pyroclastic deposits and thick ash fall exterminating most all life and destroying all structures in its path. In landscapes of greater distance from the event the consequences will be less dramatic yet still substantial. Records of previous eruption data from the Yellowstone super-volcano show that the ash fall out from the eruption can cover areas as large as one million square kilometers and could leave Nebraska covered in ash up to 10 centimeters thick. This would cause destruction of agriculture, extensive damage to structures, decreased temperatures, and potential respiratory hazards. The effects of volcanic ash on the human respiratory system have been shown to cause acute symptoms from heavy exposure. Symptoms include nasal irritation, throat irritation, coughing, and if preexisting conditions are present some can develop bronchial symptoms, which can last for a few days. People with bronchitis and asthma are shown to experience airway irritation and uncomfortable breathing. In most occurrences, exposure of volcanic ash is too short to cause long-term health hazards. Wearing facial protection can alleviate much of the symptoms. Most of the long-term ramifications of the eruption will be from the atmospheric changes caused from disruption of solar radiation, which will affect much of the global population. The most pertinent concerns for Nebraska citizens are from the accumulation of ash deposits over the landscape and the climatic perturbations. Potential mitigation procedures are essential to prepare our essentially unaware population of the threat that they may soon face if the volcano continues on its eruption cycle.

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The main goal of this work is to describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of the radiation balance components at the surface in the city of So Paulo based on observations carried out during 2004. Monthly average hourly values indicate that the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles of net radiation (Q*), downwelling and upwelling shortwave radiation (SW(DW), SW(UP)), and longwave radiations (LW(DW), LW(UP)) in February were, respectively, 37%, 14%, 19%, 11%, and 5% larger than they were in August. The monthly average daily values indicate a variation of 60% for Q*, with a minimum in June and a maximum in December; 45% for SW(DW), with a minimum in May and a maximum in September; 50% for SW(UP), with a minimum in June and a maximum in September; 13% for LW(DW), with a minimum in July and a maximum in January; and 9% for LW(UP), with a minimum in July and a maximum in February. It was verified that the atmospheric broadband transmissivity varied from 0.36 to 0.57; the effective albedo of the surface varied from 0.08 to 0.10; and the atmospheric effective emissivity varied from 0.79 to 0.92. The surface effective emissivity remained approximately constant and equal to 0.96. The albedo and surface effective emissivity for So Paulo agreed with those reported for urban areas in Europe and North America cities. This indicates that material and geometric effects on albedo and surface emissivity in So Paulo are similar to ones observed in typical middle latitudes cities. On the other hand, it was found that So Paulo city induces an urban heat island with daytime maximum intensity varying from 2.6A degrees C in July (16:00 LT) to 5.5A degrees C in September (15:00 LT). The analysis of the radiometric properties carried out here indicate that this daytime maximum is a primary response to the seasonal variation of daily values of net solar radiation at the surface.

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Photoprotection of the agarophyte red alga Gracilaria tenuistipitata against ultraviolet radiation (UVR) was investigated in algae submitted for 1 week to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 260 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1)) or PAR + UVR (UV-A, 8.13 W m(-2) and UV-B, 0.42 W m(-2)) under different nitrogen concentrations: 0, 0.1, and 0.5 mM of NO3-. Photosynthetic pigments decreased during the time of the experiment mainly under low nitrogen supply and UVR. Incubation under high nitrogen supply (0.5 mM) sustained the photosynthetic levels over time. In contrast, mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) increased up to eightfold in the presence of UVR and 0.5 mM NO3-. Under PAR + UVR, maximal quantum yield was positively correlated to MAA abundance, whereas under PAR no correlation was found. The photosynthetic yield of algae cultivated during seven days under PAR + UVR was less affected by a 30-min exposure of high UVR (16 W m(-2)) and fully recovered after transferring to low PAR irradiances, whereas algae kept under PAR were more affected by UV exposure and no full recovery was observed. Growth rates decreased after three days in the presence of UVR and under low nitrate supply. However, these rates were similar when compared with treatments of PAR and PAR + UVR after seven days, with the exception of samples in 0 mM NO3-, indicating that the acclimation after one week's exposure is related to nitrate supply. In conclusion, the lowest negative effect of UVR on photosynthesis and growth rate in high N-supply-grown algae could be explained by the stimulation of photoprotection mechanisms, such as accumulation of MAAs. Photostimulation of MAA accumulation by UVR under high N supply was observed in G. tenuistipitata even after 20 years in culture without the induction of this photomorphogenic light signal.

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Programa de doctorado de Gestión de recursos vivos marinos y medioambiente

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- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG:Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit der Bestimmung der chemischen und physikalischen Eigenschaften von Aerosolpartikeln im Amazonasbecken, die während Zeiten mit Biomasseverbrennung und bei Hintergrundbedingungen bestimmt wurden. Die Messungen wurden während zwei Kampagnen im Rahmen des europäischen Beitrags zum LBA-EUSTACH Experiment in Amazonien. Die Daten umfassen Messungen der Anzahlkonzentrationen, Größenverteilungen, optischen Eigenschaften sowie Elementzusammensetzungen und Kohlenstoffgehalte der gesammelten Aerosole. Die Zusammensetzung des Aerosols wies auf folgende drei Quellen hin: natürlichen biogenen, Mineralstaub, und pyrogenes Aerosol. Aller drei Komponenten trugen signifikant zur Extinktion des Sonnenlichts bei. Insgesamt ergab sich eine Steigerung der Meßwerte um ca. das Zehnfache während der Trockenzeit im Vergleich zur Regenzeit, was auf eine massive Einbringung von Rauchpartikeln im Submikrometerbereich in die Atmosphäre während der Trockenzeit zurückzuführen ist. Dementsprechend sank die Einzelstreualbedo von ca. 0,97 auf 0,91. Der Brechungsindex der Aerosolpartikel wurde mit einer neuen iterative Methoden, basierend auf der Mie-Theorie berechnet. Es ergaben sich durchschnittliche Werte von 1,42 – 0,006i für die Regenzeit und 1,41 – 0,013i für die Trockenperiode. Weitere klimatisch relevante Parameterergaben für Hintergrundaerosole und für Aerosole aus Biomasseverbrennung folgende Werte: Asymmetrieparameter von 0,63 ± 0,02 bzw. 0,70 ± 0,03 und Rückstreuungsverhältnisse von 0,12 ± 0,01 bzw. 0,08 ± 0,01. Diese Veränderungen haben das Potential, das regionale und globale Klima über die Variierung der Extinktion der Sonneneinstrahlung als auch der Wolkeneigenschaften zu beeinflussen.

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Sekundäres organisches Aerosol (SOA) ist ein wichtiger Bestandteil von atmosphärischen Aerosolpartikeln. Atmosphärische Aerosole sind bedeutsam, da sie das Klima über direkte (Streuung und Absorption von Strahlung) und indirekte (Wolken-Kondensationskeime) Effekte beeinflussen. Nach bisherigen Schätzungen ist die SOA-Bildung aus biogenen Kohlenwasserstoffen global weit wichtiger als die SOA-Bildung aus anthropogenen Kohlenwasserstoffen. Reaktive Kohlenwasserstoffe, die in großen Mengen von der Vegetation emittiert werden und als die wichtigsten Vorläufersubstanzen für biogenes SOA gelten, sind die Terpene. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde eine Methode entwickelt, welche die Quantifizierung von aciden Produkten der Terpen-Oxidation ermöglicht. Die Abscheidung des größenselektierten Aerosols (PM 2.5) erfolgte auf Quarzfilter, die unter Zuhilfenahme von Ultraschall mittels Methanol extrahiert wurden. Nach Aufkonzentrierung und Lösungsmittelwechsel auf Wasser sowie Standardaddition wurden die Proben mit einer Kapillar-HPLC-ESI-MSn-Methode analysiert. Das verwendete Ionenfallen-Massenspektrometer (LCQ-DECA) bietet die Möglichkeit, Strukturaufklärung durch selektive Fragmentierung der Qasimolekülionen zu betreiben. Die Quantifizierung erfolgte teilweise im MS/MS-Modus, wodurch Selektivität und Nachweisgrenze verbessert werden konnten. Um Produkte der Terpen-Oxidation zu identifizieren, die nicht als Standards erhältlich waren, wurden Ozonolysexperimente durchgeführt. Dadurch gelang die Identifizierung einer Reihe von Oxidationsprodukten in Realproben. Neben schon bekannten Produkten der Terpen-Oxidation konnten einige Produkte erstmals in Realproben eindeutig als Produkte des α Pinens nachgewiesen werden. In den Proben der Ozonolyseexperimente konnten auch Produkte mit hohem Molekulargewicht (>300 u) nachgewiesen werden, die Ähnlichkeit zeigen zu den als Dimeren oder Polymeren in der Literatur bezeichneten Substanzen. Sie konnten jedoch nicht in Feldproben gefunden werden. Im Rahmen von 5 Messkampagnen in Deutschland und Finnland wurden Proben der atmosphärischen Partikelphase genommen. Die Quantifizierung von Produkten der Oxidation von α-Pinen, β-Pinen, 3-Caren, Sabinen und Limonen in diesen Proben ergab eine große zeitliche und örtliche Variationsbreite der Konzentrationen. Die Konzentration von Pinsäure bewegte sich beispielsweise zwischen etwa 0,4 und 21 ng/m³ während aller Messkampagnen. Es konnten stets Produkte verschiedener Terpene nachgewiesen werden. Produkte einiger Terpene eignen sich sogar als Markersubstanzen für verschiedene Pflanzenarten. Sabinen-Produkte wie Sabinsäure können als Marker für die Emissionen von Laubbäumen wie Buchen oder Birken verwendet werden, während Caren-Produkte wie Caronsäure als Marker für Nadelbäume, speziell Kiefern, verwendet werden können. Mit den quantifizierten Substanzen als Marker wurde unter zu Hilfenahme von Messungen des Gehaltes an organischem und elementarem Kohlenstoff im Aerosol der Anteil des sekundären organischen Aerosols (SOA) errechnet, der von der Ozonolyse der Terpene stammt. Erstaunlicherweise konnten nur 1% bis 8% des SOA auf die Ozonolyse der Terpene zurückgeführt werden. Dies steht im Gegensatz zu der bisherigen Meinung, dass die Ozonolyse der Terpene die wichtigste Quelle für biogenes SOA darstellt. Gründe für diese Diskrepanz werden in der Arbeit diskutiert. Um die atmosphärischen Prozesse der Bildung von SOA vollständig zu verstehen, müssen jedoch noch weitere Anstrengungen unternommen werden.

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This dissertation focuses on characterizing the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from grasses and young trees, and the burning of biomass mainly from Africa and Indonesia. The measurements were performed with a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS). The biogenic emissions of tropical savanna vegetation were studied in Calabozo (Venezuela). Two field campaigns were carried out, the first during the wet season (1999) and the second during the dry season (2000). Three grass species were studied: T. plumosus, H. rufa and A. canescens, and the tree species B. crassifolia, C. americana and C. vitifolium. The emission rates were determined with a dynamic plant enclosure system. In general, the emissions increased exponentially with increasing temperature and solar radiation. Therefore, the emission rates showed high variability. Consequently, the data were normalized to a standard temperature of 30°C, and standard emission rates thus determined allowed for interspecific and seasonal comparisons. The range of average daytime (10:00-16:00) emission rates of total VOCs measured from green (mature and young) grasses was between 510-960 ngC/g/h. Methanol was the primary emission (140-360 ngC/g/h), followed by acetaldehyde, butene and butanol and acetone with emission rates between 70-200 ngC/g/h. The emissions of propene and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) were <80 ngC/g/h, and those of isoprene and C5-alcohols were between 10-130 ngC/g/h. The oxygenated species represented 70-75% of the total. The emission of VOCs was found to vary by up to a factor of three between plants of the same species, and by up to a factor of two between the different species. The annual source of methanol from savanna grasses worldwide estimated in this work was 3 to 4.4 TgC, which could represent up to 12% of the current estimated global emission from terrestrial vegetation. Two of the studied tree species, were isoprene emitters, and isoprene was also their primary emission (which accounted for 70-94% of the total carbon emitted) followed by methanol and butene + butanol. The daytime average emission rate of isoprene measured in the wet season was 27 mgC/g/h for B. crassifolia, and 123 mgC/g/h for C. vitifolium. The daytime emissions of methanol and butene + butanol were between 0.3 and 2 mgC/g/h. The total sum of VOCs emission measured during the day in the wet season was between 30 and 130 mgC/g/h. In the dry season, in contrast, the methanol emissions from C. vitifolium saplings –whose leaves were still developing– were an order of magnitude higher than in the wet season (15 mgC/g/h). The isoprene emission from B. crassifolia in the dry season was comparable to the emission in the wet season, whereas isoprene emission from C. vitifolium was about a factor of three lower (~43 mgC/g/h). Biogenic emission inventories show that isoprenoids are the most prominent and best-studied compounds. The standard emission rates of isoprene and monoterpenes of the measured savanna trees were in the lower end of the range found in the literature. The emission of other biogenic VOCs has been sparsely investigated, but in general, the standard emissions from trees studied here were within the range observed in previous investigations. The biomass burning study comprised the measurement of VOCs and other trace-gas emissions of 44 fires from 15 different fuel types, primarily from Africa and Indonesia, in a combustion laboratory. The average sum of emissions (excluding CO2, CO and NO) from African fuels was ~18 g(VOC)/kg. Six of the ten most important emissions were oxygenated VOCs. Acetic acid was the major emission, followed by methanol and formaldehyde. The emission of methane was of the same order as the methanol emission (~5 g/kg), and that of nitrogen-containing compounds was ~1 g/kg. An estimate of the VOC source from biomass burning of savannas and grasslands worldwide suggests that the sum of emissions is about 56 Tg/yr, of which 34 Tg correspond to oxygenated VOCs, 14 Tg to unsaturated and aromatic compounds, 5 Tg to methane and 3 Tg to N-compounds. The estimated emissions of CO, CO2 and NO are 216, 5117 and 9.4 Tg/yr, respectively. The emission factors reported here for Indonesian fuels are the first results of laboratory fires using Indonesian fuels. Acetic acid was the highest organic emission, followed by acetol, a compound not previously reported in smoke, methane, mass 97 (tentatively identified as furfural, dimethylfuran and ethylfuran), and methanol. The sum of total emissions of Indonesian fuels was 91 g/kg, which is 5 times higher than the emissions from African fuels. The results of this study reinforces the importance of oxygenated compounds. Due to the vast area covered by tropical savannas worldwide, the biogenic and biomass burning emission of methanol and other oxygenated compounds may be important for the regional and even global tropospheric chemistry.

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The interaction between atmosphere–land–ocean–biosphere systems plays a prominent role on the atmospheric dynamics and on the convective rainfall distribution over the West Africa monsoon area during the boreal summer. In particular, the initialization of convective systems in the Sub – Sahelian region has been directly linked to soil moisture heterogeneities identified as the major triggering, development and propagation of convective systems. The present study aims at investigating African monsoon large scale convective dynamics and rainfall diurnal cycle through an exploration of the hypothesis behind the mechanisms of a monsoon phenomenon as an emergence of a collective dynamics of many propagating convective systems. Such hypothesis is based on the existence of an internal self – regulation mechanism among the various components. To achieve these results a multiple analysis was performed based on remote sensed rainfall dataset, and global and regional modelling data for a period of 5 seasons: 2004 - 2008. Satellite rainfall data and convective occurrence variability were studied for assessing typical spatio – temporal signatures and characteristics with an emphasis to the diurnal cycle footprint. A global model and regional model simulation datasets, specifically developed for this analysis and based on Regional Atmospheric Modelling System – RAMS, have been analysed. Results from numerical model datasets highlight the evidence of a synchronization between the destabilization of the convective boundary layer and rainfall occurrence due to the solar radiation forcing through the latent heat release. This supports the conclusion that the studied interacting systems are associated with a process of mutual adjustment of rhythms. Furthermore, this rainfall internal coherence was studied in relation to the West African Heat Low pressure system, which has a prominent role in the large scale summer variability over the Mediterranean area since it is acting as one of dynamic link between sub tropical and midlatitudes variability.

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Iodine chemistry plays an important role in the tropospheric ozone depletion and the new particle formation in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL). The sources, reaction pathways, and the sinks of iodine are investigated using lab experiments and field observations. The aims of this work are, firstly, to develop analytical methods for iodine measurements of marine aerosol samples especially for iodine speciation in the soluble iodine; secondly, to apply the analytical methods in field collected aerosol samples, and to estimate the characteristics of aerosol iodine in the MBL. Inductively Coupled Plasma – Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) was the technique used for iodine measurements. Offline methods using water extraction and Tetra-methyl-ammonium-hydroxide (TMAH) extraction were applied to measure total soluble iodine (TSI) and total insoluble iodine (TII) in the marine aerosol samples. External standard calibration and isotope dilution analysis (IDA) were both conducted for iodine quantification and the limits of detection (LODs) were both 0.1 μg L-1 for TSI and TII measurements. Online couplings of Ion Chromatography (IC)-ICP-MS and Gel electrophoresis (GE)-ICP-MS were both developed for soluble iodine speciation. Anion exchange columns were adopted for IC-ICP-MS systems. Iodide, iodate, and unknown signal(s) were observed in these methods. Iodide and iodate were separated successfully and the LODs were 0.1 and 0.5 μg L-1, respectively. Unknown signals were soluble organic iodine species (SOI) and quantified by the calibration curve of iodide, but not clearly identified and quantified yet. These analytical methods were all applied to the iodine measurements of marine aerosol samples from the worldwide filed campaigns. The TSI and TII concentrations (medians) in PM2.5 were found to be 240.87 pmol m-3 and 105.37 pmol m-3 at Mace Head, west coast of Ireland, as well as 119.10 pmol m-3 and 97.88 pmol m-3 in the cruise campaign over the North Atlantic Ocean, during June – July 2006. Inorganic iodine, namely iodide and iodate, was the minor iodine fraction in both campaigns, accounting for 7.3% (median) and 5.8% (median) in PM2.5 iodine at Mace Head and over the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Iodide concentrations were higher than iodate in most of the samples. In the contrast, more than 90% of TSI was SOI and the SOI concentration was correlated significantly with the iodide concentration. The correlation coefficients (R2) were both higher than 0.5 at Mace Head and in the first leg of the cruise. Size fractionated aerosol samples collected by 5 stage Berner impactor cascade sampler showed similar proportions of inorganic and organic iodine. Significant correlations were obtained in the particle size ranges of 0.25 – 0.71 μm and 0.71 – 2.0 μm between SOI and iodide, and better correlations were found in sunny days. TSI and iodide existed mainly in fine particle size range (< 2.0 μm) and iodate resided in coarse range (2.0 – 10 μm). Aerosol iodine was suggested to be related to the primary iodine release in the tidal zone. Natural meteorological conditions such as solar radiation, raining etc were observed to have influence on the aerosol iodine. During the ship campaign over the North Atlantic Ocean (January – February 2007), the TSI concentrations (medians) ranged 35.14 – 60.63 pmol m-3 among the 5 stages. Likewise, SOI was found to be the most abundant iodine fraction in TSI with a median of 98.6%. Significant correlation also presented between SOI and iodide in the size range of 2.0 – 5.9 μm. Higher iodate concentration was again found in the higher particle size range, similar to that at Mace Head. Airmass transport from the biogenic bloom region and the Antarctic ice front sector was observed to play an important role in aerosol iodine enhancement. The TSI concentrations observed along the 30,000 km long cruise round trip from East Asia to Antarctica during November 2005 – March 2006 were much lower than in the other campaigns, with a median of 6.51 pmol m-3. Approximately 70% of the TSI was SOI on average. The abundances of inorganic iodine including iodine and iodide were less than 30% of TSI. The median value of iodide was 1.49 pmol m-3, which was more than four fold higher than that of iodate (median, 0.28 pmol m-3). Spatial variation indicated highest aerosol iodine appearing in the tropical area. Iodine level was considerably lower in coastal Antarctica with the TSI median of 3.22 pmol m-3. However, airmass transport from the ice front sector was correlated with the enhance TSI level, suggesting the unrevealed source of iodine in the polar region. In addition, significant correlation between SOI and iodide was also shown in this campaign. A global distribution in aerosol was shown in the field campaigns in this work. SOI was verified globally ubiquitous due to the presence in the different sampling locations and its high proportion in TSI in the marine aerosols. The correlations between SOI and iodide were obtained not only in different locations but also in different seasons, implying the possible mechanism of iodide production through SOI decomposition. Nevertheless, future studies are needed for improving the current understanding of iodine chemistry in the MBL (e.g. SOI identification and quantification as well as the update modeling involving organic matters).

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Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

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Time series of geocenter coordinates were determined with data of two global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), namely the U.S. GPS (Global Positioning System) and the Russian GLONASS (Global’naya Nawigatsionnaya Sputnikowaya Sistema). The data was recorded in the years 2008–2011 by a global network of 92 permanently observing GPS/GLONASS receivers. Two types of daily solutions were generated independently for each GNSS, one including the estimation of geocenter coordinates and one without these parameters. A fair agreement for GPS and GLONASS was found in the geocenter x- and y-coordinate series. Our tests, however, clearly reveal artifacts in the z-component determined with the GLONASS data. Large periodic excursions in the GLONASS geocenter z-coordinates of about 40 cm peak-to-peak are related to the maximum elevation angles of the Sun above/below the orbital planes of the satellite system and thus have a period of about 4 months (third of a year). A detailed analysis revealed that the artifacts are almost uniquely governed by the differences of the estimates of direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) in the two solution series (with and without geocenter estimation). A simple formula is derived, describing the relation between the geocenter z-coordinate and the corresponding parameter of the SRP. The effect can be explained by first-order perturbation theory of celestial mechanics. The theory also predicts a heavy impact on the GNSS-derived geocenter if once-per-revolution SRP parameters are estimated in the direction of the satellite’s solar panel axis. Specific experiments using GPS observations revealed that this is indeed the case. Although the main focus of this article is on GNSS, the theory developed is applicable to all satellite observing techniques. We applied the theory to satellite laser ranging (SLR) solutions using LAGEOS. It turns out that the correlation between geocenter and SRP parameters is not a critical issue for the SLR solutions. The reasons are threefold: The direct SRP is about a factor of 30–40 smaller for typical geodetic SLR satellites than for GNSS satellites, allowing it in most cases to not solve for SRP parameters (ruling out the correlation between these parameters and the geocenter coordinates); the orbital arc length of 7 days (which is typically used in SLR analysis) contains more than 50 revolutions of the LAGEOS satellites as compared to about two revolutions of GNSS satellites for the daily arcs used in GNSS analysis; the orbit geometry is not as critical for LAGEOS as for GNSS satellites, because the elevation angle of the Sun w.r.t. the orbital plane is usually significantly changing over 7 days.