Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

Can a Halo CME from the limb be geoeffective?

The probability for a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) to be geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer the CME launch site is located to the solar central meridian. However, events far from the central meridian may produce severe geomagnetic storms, like the case in April 2000. In this work, we study the possible geoeffectiveness of full halo CMEs with the source region situated at solar limb. For this task, we select all limb full halo (LFH) CMEs that occurred during solar cycle 23, and we search for signatures of geoeffectiveness between 1 and 5 days after the first appearance of each CME in the LASCO C2 field of view. When signatures of geomagnetic activity are observed in the selected time window, interplanetary data are carefully analyzed in order to look for the cause of the geomagnetic disturbance. Finally, a possible association between geoeffective interplanetary signatures and every LFH CME in solar cycle 23 is checked in order to decide on the CME's geoeffectiveness. After a detailed analysis of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic data, we conclude that of the 25 investigated events, there are only four geoeffective LFH CMEs, all coming from the west limb. The geoeffectiveness of these events seems to be moderate, turning to intense in two of them as a result of cumulative effects from previous mass ejections. We conclude that ejections from solar locations close to the west limb should be considered in space weather, at least as sources of moderate disturbances.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Integro-difference equations for interacting species and the Neolithic transition

We introduce a set of sequential integro-difference equations to analyze the dynamics of two interacting species. Firstly, we derive the speed of the fronts when a species invades a space previously occupied by a second species, and check its validity by means of numerical random-walk simulations. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the predictions of the model are consistent with the archaeological data for the front speed, provided that the interaction parameter is low enough. Secondly, an equation for the coexistence time between the invasive and the invaded populations is obtained for the first time. It agrees well with the simulations, is consistent with observations of the Neolithic transition, and makes it possible to estimate the value of the interaction parameter between the incoming and the indigenous populations

Meteo Andorra : Dades meteorològiques del Principat d'Andorra

Projecte per recuperar les dades d'una estació meteorològica i desenvolupar una sèrie d'aplicacions i serveis en diferents tecnologies per consultar l'evolució d'aquestes dades en temps real.

Linear and nonlinear terrain deformation maps from a reduced set of interferometric SAR images

In this paper, an advanced technique for the generation of deformation maps using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is presented. The algorithm estimates the linear and nonlinear components of the displacement, the error of the digital elevation model (DEM) used to cancel the topographic terms, and the atmospheric artifacts from a reduced set of low spatial resolution interferograms. The pixel candidates are selected from those presenting a good coherence level in the whole set of interferograms and the resulting nonuniform mesh tessellated with the Delauney triangulation to establish connections among them. The linear component of movement and DEM error are estimated adjusting a linear model to the data only on the connections. Later on, this information, once unwrapped to retrieve the absolute values, is used to calculate the nonlinear component of movement and atmospheric artifacts with alternate filtering techniques in both the temporal and spatial domains. The method presents high flexibility with respect to the required number of images and the baselines length. However, better results are obtained with large datasets of short baseline interferograms. The technique has been tested with European Remote Sensing SAR data from an area of Catalonia (Spain) and validated with on-field precise leveling measurements.

Sea state effect on the sea surface emissivity at L-band

In May 1999, the European Space Agency (ESA) selected the Earth Explorer Opportunity Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to obtain global and frequent soil moisture and ocean salinity maps. SMOS' single payload is the Microwave Imaging Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS), an L-band two-dimensional aperture synthesis radiometer with multiangular observation capabilities. At L-band, the brightness temperature sensitivity to the sea surface salinity (SSS) is low, approximately 0.5 K/psu at 20/spl deg/C, decreasing to 0.25 K/psu at 0/spl deg/C, comparable to that to the wind speed /spl sim/0.2 K/(m/s) at nadir. However, at a given time, the sea state does not depend only on local winds, but on the local wind history and the presence of waves traveling from far distances. The Wind and Salinity Experiment (WISE) 2000 and 2001 campaigns were sponsored by ESA to determine the impact of oceanographic and atmospheric variables on the L-band brightness temperature at vertical and horizontal polarizations. This paper presents the results of the analysis of three nonstationary sea state conditions: growing and decreasing sea, and the presence of swell. Measured sea surface spectra are compared with the theoretical ones, computed using the instantaneous wind speed. Differences can be minimized using an "effective wind speed" that makes the theoretical spectrum best match the measured one. The impact on the predicted brightness temperatures is then assessed using the small slope approximation/small perturbation method (SSA/SPM).

A two-dimensional doppler-radiometer for earth observation

Compared to synthetic aperture radars (SARs), the angular resolution of microwave radiometers is quite poor. Traditionally, it has been limited by the physical size of the antenna. However, the angular resolution can be improved by means of aperture synthesis interferometric techniques. A narrow beam is synthesized during the image formation processing of the cross-correlations measured at zero-lag between pairs of signals collected by an array of antennas. The angular resolution is then determined by the maximum antenna spacing normalized to the wavelength (baseline). The next step in improving the angular resolution is the Doppler-Radiometer, somehow related to the super-synthesis radiometers and the Radiometer-SAR. This paper presents the concept of a three-antenna Doppler-Radiometer for 2D imaging. The performance of this instrument is evaluated in terms of angular/spatial resolution and radiometric sensitivity, and an L-band illustrative example is presented.

A model of the wind direction signature in the Stokes emission vector from the ocean surface at microwave frequencies

This paper presents a model of the Stokes emission vector from the ocean surface. The ocean surface is described as an ensemble of facets with Cox and Munk's (1954) Gram-Charlier slope distribution. The study discusses the impact of different up-wind and cross-wind rms slopes, skewness, peakedness, foam cover models and atmospheric effects on the azimuthal variation of the Stokes vector, as well as the limitations of the model. Simulation results compare favorably, both in mean value and azimuthal dependence, with SSM/I data at 53° incidence angle and with JPL's WINDRAD measurements at incidence angles from 30° to 65°, and at wind speeds from 2.5 to 11 m/s.

Polarimetric radar interferometry for improved mine detection and surface clutter rejection

A recently developed technique, polarimetric radar interferometry, is applied to tackle the problem of the detection of buried objects embedded in surface clutter. An experiment with a fully polarimetric radar in an anechoic chamber has been carried out using different frequency bands and baselines. The processed results show the ability of this technique to detect buried plastic mines and to measure their depth. This technique enables the detection of plastic mines even if their backscatter response is much lower than that of the surface clutter.

Particle transport method for convection-diffusion-reaction problems

Convective transport, both pure and combined with diffusion and reaction, can be observed in a wide range of physical and industrial applications, such as heat and mass transfer, crystal growth or biomechanics. The numerical approximation of this class of problemscan present substantial difficulties clue to regions of high gradients (steep fronts) of the solution, where generation of spurious oscillations or smearing should be precluded. This work is devoted to the development of an efficient numerical technique to deal with pure linear convection and convection-dominated problems in the frame-work of convection-diffusion-reaction systems. The particle transport method, developed in this study, is based on using rneshless numerical particles which carry out the solution along the characteristics defining the convective transport. The resolution of steep fronts of the solution is controlled by a special spacial adaptivity procedure. The serni-Lagrangian particle transport method uses an Eulerian fixed grid to represent the solution. In the case of convection-diffusion-reaction problems, the method is combined with diffusion and reaction solvers within an operator splitting approach. To transfer the solution from the particle set onto the grid, a fast monotone projection technique is designed. Our numerical results confirm that the method has a spacial accuracy of the second order and can be faster than typical grid-based methods of the same order; for pure linear convection problems the method demonstrates optimal linear complexity. The method works on structured and unstructured meshes, demonstrating a high-resolution property in the regions of steep fronts of the solution. Moreover, the particle transport method can be successfully used for the numerical simulation of the real-life problems in, for example, chemical engineering.

MeteoCAT : Visor web SIG de dades meteorològiques

El projecte consisteix en la creació d'un visor web SIG de dades meteorològiques. Esta eina permetrà els usuaris accedir a una web on podran consultar i visualitzar diferents dades cartogràfiques i meteorològiques. A més a més, podran superposar en un mapa diferents conjunts de dades a analitzar, facilitant per tant la feina dels meteoròlegs. Es podrà també accedir a dades de diferents dates i visualitzar un històric de la situació del clima, facilitant la tasca de crear models històrics i permetent veure com ha evolucionat el clima al llarg del temps.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Characteristics of 2D convective structures in Catalonia (NE Spain): an analysis using radar data and GIS

Flood simulation studies use spatial-temporal rainfall data input into distributed hydrological models. A correct description of rainfall in space and in time contributes to improvements on hydrological modelling and design. This work is focused on the analysis of 2-D convective structures (rain cells), whose contribution is especially significant in most flood events. The objective of this paper is to provide statistical descriptors and distribution functions for convective structure characteristics of precipitation systems producing floods in Catalonia (NE Spain). To achieve this purpose heavy rainfall events recorded between 1996 and 2000 have been analysed. By means of weather radar, and applying 2-D radar algorithms a distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation is made. These data are introduced and analyzed with a GIS. In a first step different groups of connected pixels with convective precipitation are identified. Only convective structures with an area greater than 32 km2 are selected. Then, geometric characteristics (area, perimeter, orientation and dimensions of the ellipse), and rainfall statistics (maximum, mean, minimum, range, standard deviation, and sum) of these structures are obtained and stored in a database. Finally, descriptive statistics for selected characteristics are calculated and statistical distributions are fitted to the observed frequency distributions. Statistical analyses reveal that the Generalized Pareto distribution for the area and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution for the perimeter, dimensions, orientation and mean areal precipitation are the statistical distributions that best fit the observed ones of these parameters. The statistical descriptors and the probability distribution functions obtained are of direct use as an input in spatial rainfall generators.