Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Beyond belief : Strategic taboos and organizational identity in strategic agenda setting

A comprehensive strategic agenda matters for fundamental strategic change. Our study seeks to explore and theorize how organizational identity beliefs influence the judgment of strategic actors when setting an organization's strategic agenda. We offer the notion of "strategic taboo" as those strategic options initially disqualified and deemed inconsistent with the organizational identity beliefs of strategic actors. Our study is concerned with how strategic actors confront strategic taboos in the process of setting an organization's strategic agenda. Based on a revelatory inductive case study, we find that strategic actors engage in assessing the concordance of the strategic taboos with organizational identity beliefs and, more specifically, that they focus on key identity elements (philosophy; priorities; practices) when doing so. We develop a typology of three reinterpretation practices that are each concerned with a key identity element. While contextualizing assesses the potential concordance of a strategic taboo with an organization's overall philosophy and purpose, instrumentalizing assesses such concordance with respect to what actors deem an organization's priorities to be. Finally, normalizing explores concordance with respect to compatibility and fit with the organization's practices. We suggest that assessing concordance of a strategic taboo with identity elements consists in reinterpreting collective identity beliefs in ways that make them consistent with what organizational actors deem the right course of action. This article discusses the implications for theory and research on strategic agenda setting, strategic change, a practice-based perspective on strategy, and on organizational identity.

Anticipating intended users - Prospective sensemaking in technology development

How do developers and designers of a new technology make sense of intended users? The critical groundwork for user-centred technology development begins not by involving actual users' exposure to the technological artefact but much earlier, with designers' and developers' vision of future users. Thus, anticipating intended users is critical to technology uptake. We conceptualise the anticipation of intended users as a form of prospective sensemaking in technology development. Employing a narrative analytical approach and drawing on four key communities in the development of Grid computing, we reconstruct how each community anticipated the intended Grid user. Based on our findings, we conceptualise user anticipation in Terms of two key dimensions, namely the intended possibility to inscribe user needs into the technological artefact as well as the intended scope of the application domain. In turn, these dimensions allow us to develop an initial typology of intended user concepts that in turn might provide a key building block towards a generic typology of intended users.

On the Edge of the Primeval Forest. Accounts and reflections of a medical Doctor in French Equatorial Africa

Reading for 4th-year students

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 636 - "The Relation between Philosophy and Sociology in the Work of Wilhelm Dilthey" und "Autoritärer Staat" (p. IX 12.1-7-IX 13.1-7)

"The Relation between Psychology and Sociology in the Work of Wilhelm Dilthey" (GS 4, S. 352-370), veröffentlicht in Studies in Philosophy and Social Science VIII, 1939/40, S. 430-443, Vortragstext englische Fassung, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 18 Blatt, deutsche Fassung, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 20 Blatt; Vorlage zur Eröffnung der Vortragsveranstaltung, Typoskript, 1 Blatt; Über das Verhältnis Diltheys zu Max Weber; über die Widersprüche bei Dilthey; zur Logik geisteswissenschaftlichen Verstehens (= Vorarbeiten zum Vortrag? Vorbereitungen zu Diskussionsbeiträgen?), a) englische Fassung, Typoskript, 5 Blatt, b) deutsche Fassung, Typoskript, 6 Blatt; N.N.: handschriftliche Notiz für die Diskussion, 1 Blatt; Exzerpte zum Werk Wilhelm Diltheys, Typoskripte, 12 Blatt; Zitate aus Schriften Wilhelm Diltheys, Typoskripte, 12 Blatt; Deutsche Übersetzung des Aufsatzes von Kurt Jürgen Huch und Alfred Schmidt, mit dem Titel: "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Psychologie und Soziologie im Werk Wilhelm Diltheys", veröffentlicht in: Max Horkheimer, "Kritische Theorie", Bd. II, 1968, S.273-291, Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 29 Blatt; "Autoritärer Staat" (GS 5, S. 293-319), Aufsatz, datiert: Frühjahr 1940, veröffentlicht als vervielfältigtes Typoskript in "Walter Benjamin zum Gedächtnis", herausgegeben vom Institut für Sozialforschung, Los Angeles 1942, S. 123-161;

Laser Processes for Contact Optimization in c-Si Solar Cells

Solid State Lasers (SSL) have been used in microelectronic and photovoltaic (PV) industry for decades but, currently, laser technology appears as a key enabling technology to improve efficiency and to reduce production costs in high efficiency solar cells fabrication. Moreover, the fact that the interaction between the laser radiation and the device is normally localized and restricted to a controlled volume makes SSL a tool of choice for the implementation of low temperature concepts in PV industry. Specifically, SSL are ideally suited to improve the electrical performance of the contacts further improving the efficiency of these devices. Advanced concepts based on standard laser firing or advanced laser doping techniques are optimal solutions for the back contact of a significant number of structures of growing interest in the c-Si PV industry, and a number of solutions has been proposed as well for emitter formation, to reduce the metallization optical losses or even to remove completely the contacts from the front part of the cell. In this work we present our more recent results of SSL applications for contact optimization in c-Si solar cell technology, including applications on low temperature processes demanding devices, like heterojunction solar cells.

Fundamental finite key limits for information reconciliation in quantum key distribution

The security of quantum key distribution protocols is guaranteed by the laws of quantum mechanics. However, a precise analysis of the security properties requires tools from both classical cryptography and information theory. Here, we employ recent results in non-asymptotic classical information theory to show that information reconciliation imposes fundamental limitations on the amount of secret key that can be extracted in the finite key regime. In particular, we find that an often used approximation for the information leakage during one-way information reconciliation is flawed and we propose an improved estimate.

Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain

Improving the knowledge of demand evolution over time is a key aspect in the evaluation of transport policies and in forecasting future investment needs. It becomes even more critical for the case of toll roads, which in recent decades has become an increasingly common device to fund road projects. However, literature regarding demand elasticity estimates in toll roads is sparse and leaves some important aspects to be analyzed in greater detail. In particular, previous research on traffic analysis does not often disaggregate heavy vehicle demand from the total volume, so that the specific behavioral patternsof this traffic segment are not taken into account. Furthermore, GDP is the main socioeconomic variable most commonly chosen to explain road freight traffic growth over time. This paper seeks to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of heavy vehicle demand in toll roads over time. To that end, we present a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables that explain the behavior of road freight traffic throughout the years. The results show that, despite the usual practice, GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. Rather, considering only the GDP of those sectors with a high impact on transport demand, such as construction or industry, leads to more consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990?2011 period. This is an interesting case in the international context, as road freight demand has experienced an even greater reduction in Spain than elsewhere, since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.

Análisis de algoritmos para posicionamiento de aeronaves mediante respuestas SSR utilizando recepción omnidireccional

El transporte aéreo constituye un sector estratégico para el crecimiento económico de cualquier país. El sistema de gestión de tráfico aéreo ATM tiene como objetivo el movimiento seguro y eficiente de las aeronaves dentro del espacio aéreo y de los aeropuertos, siendo la seguridad, en la fase táctica, gestionada por el servicio de control de la circulación aérea. Mediante los procesos de control el tráfico aéreo es vigilado a través de sensores, regulado y guiado de forma organizada y segura. Es precisamente sobre la vigilancia donde se enfoca el contenido de la tesis, en el desarrollo de nuevos conceptos que proporcionen información de vigilancia de ‘bajo coste’ basados en las señales existentes proporcionadas por la infraestructura actual de radar secundario y por los sistemas de posicionamiento basados en satélite que utiliza la ADS-B. El conocimiento y acceso en tiempo real a las trayectorias de las aeronaves es un elemento de valor añadido no sólo para la provisión de los servicios de control de tránsito aéreo, sino para todos los actores del transporte aéreo o de la investigación, siendo uno de los elementos clave en el concepto operacional de los dos grandes proyectos tecnológicos, SESAR en Europa y NextGen en EE.UU.. En las últimas décadas el control de la circulación aérea en espacios aéreos de media y alta densidad de tráfico se ha basado en tecnologías complejas que requieren importantes infraestructuras como son el radar primario de vigilancia (PSR) y el radar secundario de vigilancia (SSR). La filosofía de los programas SESAR y NextGen siguiendo las directrices de la OACI es la de alejarse de las tecnologías basadas en tierra para evolucionar hacia nuevas tecnologías más dinámicas basadas en satélite como la ADS-B. Pero hasta que la implementación y operación de la ADS-B sea completa, existirá un período de transición que implica la coexistencia de aeronaves equipadas o no con ADS-B. El objetivo de la presente Tesis es determinar las metodologías y algoritmos más adecuados para poder hibridar las dos tecnologías descritas anteriormente, utilizando para ello un receptor de bajo coste con antena estática omnidireccional, que analice todas las señales presentes en el canal que comparten el SSR y ADS-B. Mediante esta hibridación se podrá obtener la posición de cualquier aeronave que transmita respuestas a interrogaciones SSR, en cualquiera de sus modos de trabajo, o directamente mensajes de posición ADS-B. Para desarrollar los algoritmos propuestos, además del hardware correspondiente, se han utilizado las aplicaciones LabVIEW para funciones de adquisición de datos reales, y el software MATLAB® para el desarrollo de algoritmos y análisis de datos. La validación de resultados se ha realizado mediante los propios mensajes de posición ADS-B y a través de las trazas radar proporcionadas por la entidad pública empresarial ENAIRE. La técnica desarrollada es autónoma, y no ha requerido de ninguna otra entrada que no sea la recepción omnidireccional de las señales. Sin embargo para la validación de resultados se ha utilizado información pública de las ubicaciones de la red de estaciones SSR desplegadas sobre territorio español y portugués y trazas radar. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran, que con técnicas basadas en superficies de situación definidas por los tiempos de llegada de las respuestas, es posible determinar con una precisión aceptable la posición de las estaciones SSR y la posición de cualquier aeronave que responda mediante el Modo A a éstas. ABSTRACT Air transport is a strategic sector for the economic growth of any country. The air traffic management system (ATM) aims at the safe and efficient movement of aircraft while operating within the airspace and airports, where safety, in the tactical phase, is managed by the air traffic control services. Through the air traffic control processes, aircraft are monitored by sensors, regulated and guided in an organized and safe manner. It is precisely on surveillance where this thesis is focused, developing new concepts that provide a 'low cost' surveillance information based on existing signals provided by currently secondary radar infrastructure and satellite-based positioning systems used by ADS-B. Having a deeper knowledge and a real-time access to the trajectories of the aircraft, is an element of added value not only for the provision of air traffic control services, but also for all air transport or research actors. This is one of the key elements in the operational concept proposed by the two large scale existing technological projects, SESAR in Europe and NextGen in the US. In recent decades, air traffic control in medium and high traffic density areas has been based on complex technologies requiring major infrastructures, such as the primary surveillance radar (PSR) and secondary surveillance radar (SSR). The philosophy of SESAR and NextGen programs, both following the guidelines of ICAO, is to move away from land-based technologies and evolving into some new and more dynamic satellite-based technologies such as ADS-B. Nevertheless, until the ADS-B implementation and operation is fully achieved, there will be a transitional period where aircraft with and without ADS-B equipment will have to coexist. The main objective of this thesis is to determine those methodologies and algorithms which are considered more appropriate to hybridize those two technologies, by using a low cost omnidirectional receiver, which analyzes all signals on the SSR and ADS-B shared channel. Through this hybridization, it is possible to obtain the position of any aircraft answering the SSR interrogations, in any of its modes of operation, or through the emission of ADS-B messages. To develop the proposed algorithms, LabVIEW application has been used for real-time data acquisition, as well as MATLAB software for algorithm development and data analysis, together with the corresponding hardware. The validation of results was performed using the ADS-B position messages and radar tracks provided by the Public Corporate Entity ENAIRE The developed technique is autonomous, and it does not require any other input other than the omnidirectional signal reception. However, for the validation of results, not only radar records have been used, but also public information regarding the position of SSR stations spread throughout the Spanish and Portuguese territory. The results show that using techniques based in the definition of positioning surfaces defined by the responses’ times of arrival, it is possible to determine with an acceptable level of accuracy both the position of the SSR stations as well as the position of any aircraft which transmits Mode A responses.

La unidad de lo dual : tradición y modernidad en la obra de Tadao Ando y Toyo Ito

La referencia a la tradición como una fuerza capaz de aportar unidad, al abarcar tanto la continuidad como los cambios en las expresiones al margen de la época o las técnicas empleadas, ha sido siempre un componente muy importante de las manifestaciones artísticas de Japón y es la sutil ligazón que las conecta desde el pasado hasta la actualidad. Se entiende aquí que tradición no equivale simplemente a preservación, sino que se trata de una transmisión con una vertiente dual, pues permite una constante evolución sin que se altere su esencia básica. Es de esta forma que la cultura japonesa de la era Edo (1600-1868), con su alto grado de innovación, riqueza y sofisticación, pero además como epílogo histórico previo a la Restauración Meiji de 1868, ha sido la referencia clave en lo relativo a esa mirada a la tradición nipona para el desarrollo de esta tesis. A partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XIX, todas estas características tan genuinas del período Edo quedaron en suspenso y, desde entonces, Japón ha seguido la vía de la modernización (que en muchos aspectos ha sido también la de la occidentalización). Los entrelazamientos de otras dualidades provocados en Japón por los ataques nucleares de 1945 condujeron a una inevitable fusión de aquel mundo físico con el mundo metafísico, de aquella terrible presencia con un tremendo sentimiento de ausencia y, en definitiva, de Oriente con Occidente. El consiguiente impacto sobre la cultura de la nación tuvo una especial repercusión en el ámbito arquitectónico. En este sentido, el pensamiento francés ha desempeñado un papel fundamental en el replanteamiento radical de muchos supuestos esenciales, de muchos conceptos y valores de la cultura occidental, incluyendo los procedentes de la Ilustración, en este mundo contemporáneo que es cada vez más complejo y plural. Éstos y otros hechos otorgan a la cultura japonesa tradicional una cualidad multidimensional (frente a la marcada bidimensionalidad que suele caracterizar a las culturas occidentales) que, tal y como esta tesis doctoral pretende poner de manifiesto, podría revelarse como una «síntesis de contradicciones» en la obra de los arquitectos japoneses Tadao Ando (Osaka, 1941-) y Toyo Ito (Keijo, actual Seúl, 1941-). En el pensamiento oriental una dualidad es entendida como la complementariedad entre dos polos, sólo en apariencia opuestos, que integra dos vertientes de un único concepto. Al igual que la idea de «parejas» budista, concebida según esta doctrina como una unidad entre dos extremos inevitablemente interrelacionados, el objetivo principal sería el de poner de manifiesto cómo la obra de ambos arquitectos trata de resolver los mismos conflictos partiendo de puntos de vista polarizados. ABSTRACT The reference to tradition as a force for unity, encompassing both continuity and changes in expressions regardless of the time or techniques used, has always been a very important component of the artistic manifestations of Japan and it is the subtle link that connects them from the past to the present. It is understood here that tradition does not mean simply preservation, but it is a transmission with a dual aspect, because it allows a constant evolution without altering its basic essence. It is thus that the Japanese culture of the Edo era (1600-1868), with its high degree of innovation, wealth and sophistication, but also as a historical epilogue prior to the Meiji Restoration of 1868 has been the key reference concerning that look to the Japanese tradition for the development of this thesis. From the second half of the 19th century, all these as genuine features of the Edo period remained at a standstill and, since then, Japan has followed the path of modernization (which has also been that of Westernization in many ways). The interlacements of other dualities caused in Japan by the 1945 nuclear attacks led to an inevitable fusion of the physical with the metaphysical world, of that terrible presence with a tremendous sense of absence and, eventually, of East with West. The resulting impact on the culture of the nation had a special repercussion on the architectural field. In this sense, the French thought has played a key role in the radical rethinking of many core assumptions, many concepts and values of Western thought, including those from the Age of Enlightenment, in this contemporary world that is increasingly complex and plural. These and other facts give the traditional Japanese culture a multidimensional quality (opposed to the marked two-dimensionality that usually characterizes Western cultures). As this thesis aims to highlight, this could prove to be a «synthesis of contradictions» in the work of Japanese architects Tadao Ando (Osaka, 1941-) and Toyo Ito (Keijo, current Seoul, 1941-). In the Eastern thought a duality is understood as the complementarity between two poles, only apparently opposite, which integrates two aspects of a single concept. Like the Buddhist notion of «couples» (conceived according to this doctrine as a unity between two inevitably interlinked extremes) the main objective would be to show how the work of both architects tries to resolve the same conflicts starting with polarized viewpoints.

O DISCURSO AMBIENTAL JORNALÍSTICO, POLÍTICO E EMPRESARIAL EM ÂMBITO LOCAL: uma proposta de análise

Esta tese tem como tema principal o discurso ambiental local. Trata-se de uma proposta de análise, que pode ser aplicada a este tipo de discurso em qualquer localidade, e um estudo de caso, que aplicou a análise proposta na tese. O objetivo geral desta pesquisa foi analisar a informação local sobre meio ambiente veiculada por meio dos discursos jornalístico, político e empresarial, estabelecendo relações históricas, sociais e ideológicas do discurso ambiental que permeiam as três áreas em questão. A metodologia incluiu três fases: pesquisa bibliográfica e revisão de literatura sobre os principais conceitos levantados no trabalho; levantamento de discursos locais disponíveis na mídia para análise no estudo de caso; análise dos discursos a partir de protocolo elaborado com base na Análise do Discurso de linha francesa. O estudo de caso traz a análise do discurso ambiental no município de Frutal-MG, onde hoje estão em andamento várias pesquisas e projetos na área ambiental. A principal conclusão do trabalho confirma a hipótese da pesquisa de que a informação ambiental fruto dos discursos político, jornalístico e empresarial em âmbito local tem caráter predominantemente situacional, mercadológico e propagandístico, pouco focada em conscientizar e educar e com ênfase em interesses comerciais e eleitorais e na resolução de problemas emergenciais.

Genetic control of abscisic acid biosynthesis in maize

Abscisic acid (ABA), an apocarotenoid synthesized from cleavage of carotenoids, regulates seed maturation and stress responses in plants. The viviparous seed mutants of maize identify genes involved in synthesis and perception of ABA. Two alleles of a new mutant, viviparous14 (vp14), were identified by transposon mutagenesis. Mutant embryos had normal sensitivity to ABA, and detached leaves of mutant seedlings showed markedly higher rates of water loss than those of wild type. The ABA content of developing mutant embryos was 70% lower than that of wild type, indicating a defect in ABA biosynthesis. vp14 embryos were not deficient in epoxy-carotenoids, and extracts of vp14 embryos efficiently converted the carotenoid cleavage product, xanthoxin, to ABA, suggesting a lesion in the cleavage reaction. vp14 was cloned by transposon tagging. The VP14 protein sequence is similar to bacterial lignostilbene dioxygenases (LSD). LSD catalyzes a double-bond cleavage reaction that is closely analogous to the carotenoid cleavage reaction of ABA biosynthesis. Southern blots indicated a family of four to six related genes in maize. The Vp14 mRNA is expressed in embryos and roots and is strongly induced in leaves by water stress. A family of Vp14-related genes evidently controls the first committed step of ABA biosynthesis. These genes are likely to play a key role in the developmental and environmental control of ABA synthesis in plants.

Identifying student and teacher difficulties in interpreting atomic spectra using a quantum model of emission and absorption of radiation

Our study sets out to identify the difficulties that high school students, teachers, and university students encounter when trying to explain atomic spectra. To do so, we identify the key concepts that any quantum model for the emission and absorption of electromagnetic radiation must include to account for the gas spectra and we then design two questionnaires, one for teachers and the other for students. By analyzing the responses, we conclude that (i) teachers lack a quantum model for the emission and absorption of electromagnetic radiation capable of explaining the spectra, (ii) teachers and students share the same difficulties, and (iii) these difficulties concern the model of the atom, the model of radiation, and the model of the interaction between them.

Human creation, imagination and autonomy: a brief introduction to Castoriadis’ social and psychoanalytical philosophy

During the last decade Castoriadis’ questioning has become a reference point in contemporary social theory. In this article I examine some of the key notions in Castoriadis’ work and explore how he strives to develop a theory on the irreducible creativity in the radical imagination of the individual and in the institution of the social-historical sphere. Firstly, I briefly discuss his conception of modern capitalism as bureaucratic capitalism, a view initiated by his criticism of the USSR regime. The following break up with Marxist theory and his psychoanalytic interests empowered him to criticize Lacan and read Freud in an imaginative, though unorthodox, fashion. I argue that this critical enterprise assisted greatly Castoriadis in his conception of the radical imaginary and in his unveiling of the political aspects of psychoanalysis. On the issue of the radical imaginary and its methodological repercussions, I’m focusing mainly on the radical imagination of the subject and its importance in the transition from the ‘‘psychic’’ to the ‘‘subject’’. Taking up the notion of “Being” as a starting point, I examine the notion of autonomy, seeking its roots in the ancient Greek world. By looking at notions such as “praxis”, “doing”, “project” and “elucidation”, I show how Castoriadis sought to redefine revolution as a means for social and individual autonomy. Finally I attempt to clarify the meaning of “democracy” and “democratic society” in the context of the social imaginary and its creations, the social imaginary significations.

The Legal Status and Influence of Decisions of International Organizations and other Bodies in the European Union. College of Europe Research Paper in Law 01/2014

Introduction. The European Union’s external action is not only defined by its influence on international developments, but also by its ability and the need to respond to those developments. While traditionally many have stressed the EU’s ‘autonomy’, over the years its ‘dependence’ on global developments has become more clear.2 International law has continued to play a key role in, not only in the EU’s external relations, but also in the Union’s own legal order.3 The purpose of this paper is not to assess the role or performance of the EU in international institutions.4 Rather it purports to reverse the picture and focus on a somewhat under-researched topic: the legal status of decisions of international organizations in the EU’s legal order.5 While parts of the status of these decisions relate to the status of international agreements and international customary law, it can be argued that decisions of international organizations and other international bodies form a distinct category. In fact, it has been observed that “this phenomenon has added a new layer of complexity to the already complex law of external relations of the European Union”.6 Emerging questions relate to the possible difference between decisions of international organizations of which the EU is a member (such as the FAO) and decisions of organizations where it is not (irrespective of existing competences in that area – such as in the ILO). Questions also relate to the hierarchical status of these decisions in the EU’s legal order and to the possibility of them being invoked in direct or indirect actions before the Court of Justice. This contribution takes a broad perspective on decisions of international organizations by including decisions taken in other international institutions which do not necessarily comply with the standard definition of international organizations,7 be it bodies set-up by multilateral conventions or informal (transnational / regulatory) bodies. Some of these bodies are relatively close to the EU (such as the Councils established by Association Agreements – see further Section 5 below); others operate at a certain distance. Limiting the analysis to formal international organizations will not do justice to the manifold relationships between the European Union and various international bodies and to the effects of the norms produced by these bodies. The term ‘international decisions’ is therefore used to refer to any normative output of international institutional arrangements.