883 resultados para Fractional regression models


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Ths report addresses the following two questions: 1) What are the loads (flux) of nutrients transported from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico, and where do they come from within the basin? 2) What is the relative importance of specific human activities, such as agriculture, point-source discharges, and atmospheric deposition in contributing to these loads? These questions were addressed by first estimating the flux of nutrients from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin and about 50 interior basins in the Mississippi River system using measured historical streamflow and water quality data. Annual nutrient inputs and outputs to each basin were estimated using data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, National Atmospheric Deposition Program, and point-source data provided by the USEPA. Next, a nitrogen mass balance was developed using agricultural statistics, estimates of nutrient cycling in agricultural systems, and a geographic information system. Finally, multiple regression models were developed to estimate the relative contributions of the major input sources to the flux of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Gulf of Mexico.

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Prey-size selectivity by Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) is relevant for understanding the foraging behavior of this declining predator, but studies have been problematic because of the absence and erosion of otoliths usually used to estimate fish length. Therefore, we developed regression formulae to estimate fish length from seven diagnostic cranial structures of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius). For both species, all structure measurements were related with fork length of prey (r2 range: 0.78−0.99). Fork length (FL) of walleye pollock and Atka mackerel consumed by Steller sea lions was estimated by applying these regression models to cranial structures recovered from scats (feces) collected between 1998 and 2000 across the range of the Alaskan western stock of Steller sea lions. Experimentally derived digestion correction factors were applied to take into account loss of size due to digestion. Fork lengths of walleye pollock consumed by Steller sea lions ranged from 3.7 to 70.8 cm (mean=39.3 cm, SD=14.3 cm, n=666) and Atka mackerel ranged from 15.3 to 49.6 cm (mean=32.3 cm, SD=5.9 cm, n=1685). Although sample sizes were limited, a greater proportion of juvenile (≤20 cm) walleye pollock were found in samples collected during the summer (June−September) on haul-out sites (64% juveniles, n=11 scats) than on summer rookeries (9% juveniles, n=132 scats) or winter (February−March) haul-out sites (3% juveniles, n=69 scats). Annual changes in the size of Atka mackerel consumed by Steller sea lions corresponded to changes in the length distribution of Atka mackerel resulting from exceptionally strong year classes. Considerable overlap (>51%) in the size of walleye pollock and Atka mackerel taken by Steller sea lions and the sizes of these species caught by the commercial trawl fishery were demonstrated.

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I simulated somatic growth and accompanying otolith growth using an individual-based bioenergetics model in order to examine the performance of several back-calculation methods. Four shapes of otolith radius-total length relations (OR-TL) were simulated. Ten different back-calculation equations, two different regression models of radius length, and two schemes of annulus selection were examined for a total of 20 different methods to estimate size at age from simulated data sets of length and annulus measurements. The accuracy of each of the twenty methods was evaluated by comparing the back-calculated length-at-age and the true length-at-age. The best back-calculation technique was directly related to how well the OR-TL model fitted. When the OR-TL was sigmoid shaped and all annuli were used, employing a least squares linear regression coupled with a log-transformed Lee back-calculation equation (y-intercept corrected) resulted in the least error; when only the last annulus was used, employing a direct proportionality back-calculation equation resulted in the least error. When the OR-TL was linear, employing a functional regression coupled with the Lee back-calculation equation resulted in the least error when all annuli were used, and also when only the last annulus was used. If the OR-TL was exponentially shaped, direct substitution into the fitted quadratic equation resulted in the least error when all annuli were used, and when only the last annulus was used. Finally, an asymptotically shaped OR-TL was best modeled by the individually corrected Weibull cumulative distribution function when all annuli were used, and when only the last annulus was used.

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The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop building stock models. This research proposes an engineering-based bottom-up stock model in a probabilistic manner to address these issues. School buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. Two sampling-based global sensitivity methods are used to identify key factors affecting building energy performance. The sensitivity analysis methods can also create statistical regression models for inverse analysis, which are used to estimate input information for building stock energy models. The effects of different energy saving measures are analysed by changing these building stock input distributions.

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Resting metabolism was measured in immature mandarin fish Siniperca chuatsi weighing 42.1-510.2 g and Chinese snakehead Channa argus weighing 41.5-510.3 g at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 degreesC. Heat increment of feeding was measured in mandarin fish weighing 202.0 (+/-14.0) g and snakehead weighing 200.8 (+/-19.3) g fed swamp leach Misgurnus anguillicaudatus at 1% body weight per day at 28 degreesC. In both species, weight exponent in the power relationship between resting metabolism and body weight was not affected by temperature. The relationship between resting metabolism and temperature could be described by a power function. The temperature exponent was 1.39 in mandarin fish and 2.10 in snakehead (P < 0.05), indicating that resting metabolism in snakehead increased with temperature at a faster rate than in mandarin fish. Multiple regression models were used to describe the effects of body weight (W, g) and temperature (T, C) on the resting metabolism (R-s, mg O-2/h): In R-s = - 5.343 + 0.772 In W + 1.387 In T for the mandarin fish and In R-s = -7.863 + 0.801 ln W + 2.104 In T for the Chinese snakehead. The proportion of food energy channelled to heat increment was 8.7% in mandarin fish and 6.8% in snakehead. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

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The soil respiration and net ecosystem productivity of Kobresia littledalei meadow ecosystem was investigated at Dangxiong grassland station, one grassland field station of Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station. Soil respiration and soil heterotrophic respiration were measured at the same time by using Li6400-09 chamber in growing season of year 2004. The response of soil respiration and its components, i.e. microbial heterotrophic respiration and root respiration to biotic and abiotic factors were addressed. We studied the daily and seasonal variation on Net Ecosystem carbon Exchange (NEE) measured by eddy covariance equipments and then the regression models between the NEE and the soil temperature. Based on the researches, we analyzed the seasonal variation in grass biomass and estimated NEE combined the Net Ecosystem Productivity with heterogeneous respiration and then assessed the whether the area is carbon source or carbon sink. 1.Above-ground biomass was accumulated since the grass growth started from May; On early September the biomass reached maximum and then decreased. The aboveground net primary production (ANPP) was 150.88 g m~" in 2004. The under-ground biomass reached maximum when the aboveground start to die back. Over 80% of the grass root distributed at the soil depth from 0 to 20cm. The underground NPP was 1235.04 g m"2.. Therefore annual NPP wasl.385X103kg ha"1, i.e.6236.6 kg C ha"1. 2. The daily variation of soil respiration showed single peak curve with maximum mostly at noon and minimum 4:00-6:00 am. Daily variations were greater in June, July and August than those in September and October. Soil respiration had strong correlation with soil temperature at 5cm depth while had weaker correlation with soil moisture, air temperature, surface soil temperature, and so on. But since early September the soil respiration had a obviously correlation with soil moisture at 5cm depth. Biomass had a obviously linearity correlation with soil respiration at 30th June, 20th August, and the daytime of 27th September except at 23lh October and at nighttime of 27th September. We established the soil respiration responding to the soil temperature and to estimate the respiration variation during monsoon season (from June through August) and dry season (May, September and October). The regression between soil respiration and 5cm soil temperature were: monsoon season (June through August), Y=0.592expfl()932\ By estimating , the soil daily respiration in monsoon season is 7.798gCO2m"2 and total soil respiration is 717.44 gCC^m" , and the value of Cho is 2.54; dry season (May, September and October), Y=0.34exp°'085\ the soil daily respiration is 3.355gCO2m~2 and total soil respiration is 308.61 gCC^m", and the value of Cho is 2.34. So the total soil respiration in the grown season (From May to October) is 1026.1 g CO2IT1"2. 3. Soil heterogeneous respiration had a strong correlation with soil temperature especially with soil temperature at 5cm depth. The variation range in soil heterogeneous respiration was widely. The regression between soil heterogeneous respiration and 5cm soil temperature is: monsoon season, Y=0.106exp ' 3x; dry season, Y=0.18exp°"0833x.By estimating total soil heterotrophic respiration in monsoon season is 219.6 gCC^m"2, and the value of Cho is 3.78; While total soil heterogeneous respiration in dry season is 286.2 gCCbm"2, and the value of Cho is 2.3. The total soil heterotrophic respiration of the year is 1379.4kg C ha"1. 4. We estimated the root respiration through the balance between soil respiration and the soil heterotrophic respiration. The contribution of root respiration to total respiration was different during different period: re-greening period 48%; growing period 69%; die-back period 48%. 5. The Ecosystem respiration was relatively strong from May to October, and of which the proportion in total was 97.4%.The total respiration of Ecosystem was 369.6 g CO2 m" .we got the model of grass respiration respond to the soil temperature at 5cm depth and then estimated the daytime grass respiration, plus the nighttime NEE and daytime soil respiration. But when we estimated the grass respiration, we found the result was negative, so the estimating value in this way was not close. 6. The estimating of carbon pool or carbon sink. The NPP minus the soil heterogeneous respiration was the NEE, and it was 4857.3kg C o ha"1, which indicated that the area was the carbon sink.

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Self-regulation has recently become an important topic in cognitive and developmental domain. According to previous theories and experimental studies, it is shown that self-regulation consist of both a personality (or social) aspect and a behavioral cognitive aspect of psychology. Self-regulation can be divided into self-regulation personality and self-regulation ability. In the present study researches have been carried out from two perspectives: child development and individual differences. We are eager to explore the characteristics of self-regulation in terms of human cognitive development. In the present study, we chose two groups of early adolescences one with high intelligence and the other with normal intelligence. In Study One Questionnaires were used to compare whether the highly intelligent group had had better self-regulation personality than the normal group. In Study Two experimental psychology tasks were used to compare whether highly intelligent children had had better self-regulation cognitive abilities than their normal peers. Finally, in Study Three we combined the results of Study One and Study Two to further explore the neural mechanisms for highly intelligent children with respect to their good self-regulation abilities. Some main results and conclusions are as follows: (1) Questionnaire results showed that highly intelligent children had better self-regulation personalities, and they got higher scores on the personalities related to self-regulation such as, self-reliance, stability, rule-consciousness. They also got higher scores on self-consciousness which meant that they could know their own self better than the normal children. (2) Among the three levels of cognitive difficulties in self-regulation abilities, the highly intelligent children had faster reaction speed than normal children in the primary self-regulation tasks. In the intermediate self-regulation tasks, highly intelligent children’s inhibition processing and executive processing were both better than their normal peers. In the advanced self-regulation tasks, highly intelligent children again had faster reaction speed and more reaction accuracy than their normal peers when facing with conflict and inconsistency experimental conditions,. Regression model’s results showed that primary and advanced self-regulation abilites had larger predictive power than intermediate self-regualation ability. (3) Our neural experiments showed that highly intelligent children had more efficient neural automatic processing ability than normal children. They also had better, faster and larger neural reaction to novel stimuli under pre-attentional condition which made good and firm neural basis for self-regualation. Highly intelligent children had more mature frontal lobe and pariental functions for inhibition processing and executive processing. P3 component in ERP was closely related to executive processing which mainly activated pariental function. There were two time-periods for inhibition processing—first it was the pariental function and later it was the coordination function of frontal and pariental lobes. While conflict control task had pariental N2 and frontal-pariental P3 neural sources, highly intelligent children had much smaller N2 and shorter P3 latency than normal children. Inconsistency conditions induced larger N2 than conditions without inconsistency, and conditions without inconsistency (or Conflict) induced higher P3 amplitudes than with Inconsistency (or Conflict) conditions. In conclusion, the healthy development of self-regulation was very important for children’s personality and cognition maturity, and self-regulation had its own specific characteristics in ways of presentation and ways of development. Better understanding of self-regulation can further help the exploration of the nature of human intelligence and consciousness.

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Objectives. This paper explores the use of regression models for estimating health status of schizophrenic patients, from a Bayesian perspective. Our aims are: 1- To obtain a set of values of health states of the EQ-5D based on self-assessed health from a sample of schizophrenic patients. 2- To analyse the differences in the health status and in patients’ perceptions of their health status between four mental-health districts in Spain. Methods. We develop two linear models with dummy variables. The first model seeks to obtain an index of the health status of the patients using a VAS as a dependent variable and the different dimensions of EQ-5D as regressors. The second model allows to analyse the differences between the self-assessed health status in the different geographic areas and also the differences between the patients’ self-assessed health states, irrespective of their actual health state, in the different geographic areas. The analysis is done using Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling (computer program WinBUGS 1.4). Data concerning self-assessed EQ-5D with VAS from four geographic areas of schizophrenic patients were obtained for the purposes of this analysis. Results. We obtained the health status index for this sample and analysed the differences for this index between the four geographic areas. Our study reveals variables that explain the differences in patients’ health status and differences in their health states assessment. We consider four possible scenarios.

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Tese apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências Sociais, especialidade em Psicologia

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The global proportion of older persons is increasing rapidly. Diet and the intestinal microbiota independently and jointly contribute to health in the elderly. The habitual dietary patterns and functional microbiota components of elderly subjects were investigated in order to identify specific effector mechanisms. A study of the dietary intake of Irish community-dwelling elderly subjects showed that the consumption of foods high in fat and/or sugar was excessive, while consumption of dairy foods was inadequate. Elderly females typically had a more nutrient- dense diet than males and a considerable proportion of subjects, particularly males, had inadequate intakes of calcium, magnesium, vitamin D, folate, zinc and vitamin C. The association between dietary patterns, glycaemic index and cognitive function was also investigated. Elderly subjects consuming ‘prudent’ dietary patterns had better cognitive function compared to those consuming ‘Western’ dietary patterns. Furthermore, fully-adjusted regression models revealed that a high glycaemic diet was associated with poor cognitive function, demonstrating a new link between nutrition and cognition. An extensive screening study of the elderly faecal-derived microbiota was also undertaken to examine the prevalence of antimicrobial production by intestinal bacteria. A number of previously characterised bacteriocins were isolated (gassericin T, ABP-118, mutacin II, enterocin L-50 and enterocin P) in this study. Interestingly, a Lactobacillus crispatus strain was found to produce a potentially novel antimicrobial compound. Full genome sequencing of this strain revealed the presence of three loci which exhibited varying degrees of homology with the genes responsible for helveticin J production in Lb. helveticus. An additional study comparing the immunomodulatory capacity of ‘viable’ and ‘non-viable’ Bifidobacterium strains found that Bifidobacterium-fermented milks (BFMs) containing ‘non-viable’ cells could stimulate levels of IL-10 and TNF-α in a manner similar to those stimulated by BFMs containing ‘viable’ cells in vitro.

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Background: With cesarean section rates increasing worldwide, clarity regarding negative effects is essential. This study aimed to investigate the rate of subsequent stillbirth, miscarriage, and ectopic pregnancy following primary cesarean section, controlling for confounding by indication. Methods and Findings: We performed a population-based cohort study using Danish national registry data linking various registers. The cohort included primiparous women with a live birth between January 1, 1982, and December 31, 2010 (n = 832,996), with follow-up until the next event (stillbirth, miscarriage, or ectopic pregnancy) or censoring by live birth, death, emigration, or study end. Cox regression models for all types of cesarean sections, sub-group analyses by type of cesarean, and competing risks analyses for the causes of stillbirth were performed. An increased rate of stillbirth (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.01, 1.28) was found in women with primary cesarean section compared to spontaneous vaginal delivery, giving a theoretical absolute risk increase (ARI) of 0.03% for stillbirth, and a number needed to harm (NNH) of 3,333 women. Analyses by type of cesarean section showed similarly increased rates for emergency (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01, 1.31) and elective cesarean (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.91, 1.35), although not statistically significant in the latter case. An increased rate of ectopic pregnancy was found among women with primary cesarean overall (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04, 1.15) and by type (emergency cesarean, HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03, 1.15, and elective cesarean, HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.03, 1.21), yielding an ARI of 0.1% and a NNH of 1,000 women for ectopic pregnancy. No increased rate of miscarriage was found among women with primary cesarean, with maternally requested cesarean section associated with a decreased rate of miscarriage (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60, 0.85). Limitations include incomplete data on maternal body mass index, maternal smoking, fertility treatment, causes of stillbirth, and maternally requested cesarean section, as well as lack of data on antepartum/intrapartum stillbirth and gestational age for stillbirth and miscarriage. Conclusions: This study found that cesarean section is associated with a small increased rate of subsequent stillbirth and ectopic pregnancy. Underlying medical conditions, however, and confounding by indication for the primary cesarean delivery account for at least part of this increased rate. These findings will assist women and health-care providers to reach more informed decisions regarding mode of delivery.

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BACKGROUND: The care and protection of the estimated 143,000,000 orphaned and abandoned children (OAC) worldwide is of great importance to global policy makers and child service providers in low and middle income countries (LMICs), yet little is known about rates of child labour among OAC, what child and caregiver characteristics predict child engagement in work and labour, or when such work infers with schooling. This study examines rates and correlates of child labour among OAC and associations of child labour with schooling in a cohort of OAC in 5 LMICs. METHODS: The Positive Outcomes for Orphans (POFO) study employed a two-stage random sampling survey methodology to identify 1480 single and double orphans and children abandoned by both parents ages 6-12 living in family settings in five LMICs: Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Tanzania. Regression models examined child and caregiver associations with: any work versus no work; and with working <21, 21-27, and 28+ hours during the past week, and child labour (UNICEF definition). RESULTS: The majority of OAC (60.7%) engaged in work during the past week, and of those who worked, 17.8% (10.5% of the total sample) worked 28 or more hours. More than one-fifth (21.9%; 13% of the total sample) met UNICEF's child labour definition. Female OAC and those in good health had increased odds of working. OAC living in rural areas, lower household wealth and caregivers not earning an income were associated with increased child labour. Child labour, but not working fewer than 28 hours per week, was associated with decreased school attendance. CONCLUSIONS: One in seven OAC in this study were reported to be engaged in child labour. Policy makers and social service providers need to pay close attention to the demands being placed on female OAC, particularly in rural areas and poor households with limited income sources. Programs to promote OAC school attendance may need to focus on the needs of families as well as the OAC.

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BACKGROUND: In the face of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that has contributed to the dramatic increase in orphans and abandoned children (OAC) worldwide, caregiver attitudes about HIV, and HIV-related stigma, are two attributes that may affect caregiving. Little research has considered the relationship between caregiver attributes and caregiver-reported HIV-related stigma. In light of the paucity of this literature, this paper will describe HIV-related stigma among caregivers of OAC in five less wealthy nations. METHODS: Baseline data were collected between May 2006 through February 2008. The sample included 1,480 community-based and 192 institution-based caregivers. Characteristics of the community-based and institution-based caregivers are described using means and standard deviations for continuous variables or counts and percentages for categorical variables. We fit logistic regression models, both for the full sample and separately for community-based and institution-based caregivers, to explore predictors of acceptance of HIV. RESULTS: Approximately 80% of both community-based and institution-based caregivers were female; and 84% of institution-based caregivers, compared to 66% of community-based caregivers, said that they would be willing to care for a relative with HIV. Similar proportions were reported when caregivers were asked if they were willing to let their child play with an HIV-infected child. In a multivariable model predicting willingness to care for an HIV-infected relative, adjusted for site fixed effects, being an institution-based caregiver was associated with greater willingness (less stigma) than community-based caregivers. Decreased willingness was reported by older respondents, while willingness increased with greater formal education. In the adjusted models predicting willingness to allow one's child to play with an HIV-infected child, female gender and older age was associated with less willingness. However, willingness was positively associated with years of formal education. CONCLUSIONS: The caregiver-child relationship is central to a child's development. OAC already face stigma as a result of their orphaned or abandoned status; the addition of HIV-related stigma represents a double burden for these children. Further research on the prevalence of HIV-related acceptance and stigma among caregivers and implications of such stigma for child development will be critical as the policy community responds to the global HIV/AIDS orphan crisis.

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BACKGROUND: Optimally, expanded HIV testing programs should reduce barriers to testing while attracting new and high-risk testers. We assessed barriers to testing and HIV risk among clients participating in mobile voluntary counseling and testing (MVCT) campaigns in four rural villages in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. METHODS: Between December 2007 and April 2008, 878 MVCT participants and 506 randomly selected community residents who did not access MVCT were surveyed. Gender-specific logistic regression models were used to describe differences in socioeconomic characteristics, HIV exposure risk, testing histories, HIV related stigma, and attitudes toward testing between MVCT participants and community residents who did not access MVCT. Gender-specific logistic regression models were used to describe differences in socioeconomic characteristics, HIV exposure risk, testing histories, HIV related stigma, and attitudes toward testing, between the two groups. RESULTS: MVCT clients reported greater HIV exposure risk (OR 1.20 [1.04 to 1.38] for males; OR 1.11 [1.03 to 1.19] for females). Female MVCT clients were more likely to report low household expenditures (OR 1.47 [1.04 to 2.05]), male clients reported higher rates of unstable income sources (OR 1.99 [1.22 to 3.24]). First-time testers were more likely than non-testers to cite distance to testing sites as a reason for not having previously tested (OR 2.17 [1.05 to 4.48] for males; OR 5.95 [2.85 to 12.45] for females). HIV-related stigma, fears of testing or test disclosure, and not being able to leave work were strongly associated with non-participation in MVCT (ORs from 0.11 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: MVCT attracted clients with increased exposure risk and fewer economic resources; HIV related stigma and testing-related fears remained barriers to testing. MVCT did not disproportionately attract either first-time or frequent repeat testers. Educational campaigns to reduce stigma and fears of testing could improve the effectiveness of MVCT in attracting new and high-risk populations.

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BACKGROUND: More than 153 million children worldwide have been orphaned by the loss of one or both parents, and millions more have been abandoned. We investigated relationships between the health of orphaned and abandoned children (OAC) and child, caregiver, and household characteristics among randomly selected OAC in five countries. METHODOLOGY: Using a two-stage random sampling strategy in 6 study areas in Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Tanzania, the Positive Outcomes for Orphans (POFO) study identified 1,480 community-living OAC ages 6 to 12. Detailed interviews were conducted with 1,305 primary caregivers at baseline and after 6 and 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression models describe associations between the characteristics of children, caregivers, and households and child health outcomes: fair or poor child health; fever, cough, or diarrhea within the past two weeks; illness in the past 6 months; and fair or poor health on at least two assessments. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Across the six study areas, 23% of OAC were reported to be in fair or poor health; 19%, 18%, and 2% had fever, cough, or diarrhea, respectively, within the past two weeks; 55% had illnesses within the past 6 months; and 23% were in fair or poor health on at least two assessments. Female gender, suspected HIV infection, experiences of potentially traumatic events, including the loss of both parents, urban residence, eating fewer than 3 meals per day, and low caregiver involvement were associated with poorer child health outcomes. Particularly strong associations were observed between child health measures and the health of their primary caregivers. CONCLUSIONS: Poor caregiver health is a strong signal for poor health of OAC. Strategies to support OAC should target the caregiver-child dyad. Steps to ensure food security, foster gender equality, and prevent and treat traumatic events are needed.