Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

1.Commercial fishing is an important socio-economic activity in coastal regions of the UK and Ireland. Ocean–atmospheric changes caused by greenhouse gas emissions are likely to affect future fish and shellfish production, and lead to increasing challenges in ensuring long-term sustainable fisheries management. 2.The paper reviews existing knowledge and understanding of the exposure of marine ecosystems to ocean-atmospheric changes, the consequences of these changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, and the adaptability of the UK and Irish fisheries sector. 3.Ocean warming is resulting in shifts in the distribution of exploited species and is affecting the productivity of fish stocks and underlying marine ecosystems. In addition, some studies suggest that ocean acidification may have large potential impacts on fisheries resources, in particular shell-forming invertebrates. 4.These changes may lead to loss of productivity, but also the opening of new fishing opportunities, depending on the interactions between climate impacts, fishing grounds and fleet types. They will also affect fishing regulations, the price of fish products and operating costs, which in turn will affect the economic performance of the UK and Irish fleets. 5.Key knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of the implications of climate and ocean chemistry changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, particularly on the social and economic responses of the fishing sectors to climate change. However, these gaps should not delay climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions, particularly those measures that clearly have other ‘co-benefits’.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Spatio-temporal Bayesian network models with latent variables for revealing trophic dynamics and functional networks in fisheries ecology

Ecosystems consist of complex dynamic interactions among species and the environment, the understanding of which has implications for predicting the environmental response to changes in climate and biodiversity. However, with the recent adoption of more explorative tools, like Bayesian networks, in predictive ecology, few assumptions can be made about the data and complex, spatially varying interactions can be recovered from collected field data. In this study, we compare Bayesian network modelling approaches accounting for latent effects to reveal species dynamics for 7 geographically and temporally varied areas within the North Sea. We also apply structure learning techniques to identify functional relationships such as prey–predator between trophic groups of species that vary across space and time. We examine if the use of a general hidden variable can reflect overall changes in the trophic dynamics of each spatial system and whether the inclusion of a specific hidden variable can model unmeasured group of species. The general hidden variable appears to capture changes in the variance of different groups of species biomass. Models that include both general and specific hidden variables resulted in identifying similarity with the underlying food web dynamics and modelling spatial unmeasured effect. We predict the biomass of the trophic groups and find that predictive accuracy varies with the models' features and across the different spatial areas thus proposing a model that allows for spatial autocorrelation and two hidden variables. Our proposed model was able to produce novel insights on this ecosystem's dynamics and ecological interactions mainly because we account for the heterogeneous nature of the driving factors within each area and their changes over time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for additional sources of variation, by combining structure learning from data and experts' knowledge in the model architecture, has the potential for gaining deeper insights into the structure and stability of ecosystems. Finally, we were able to discover meaningful functional networks that were spatially and temporally differentiated with the particular mechanisms varying from trophic associations through interactions with climate and commercial fisheries.

Assessing the sensitivity and specificity of fish community indicators to management action

We assessed ten trophodynamic indicators of ecosystem status for their sensitivity and specificity to fishing management using a size-resolved multispecies fish community model. The responses of indicators to fishing depended on effort and the size selectivity (sigmoid or Gaussian) of fishing mortality. The highest specificity against sigmoid (trawl-like) size selection was seen from inverse fishing pressure and the large fish indicator, but for Gaussian size selection, the large species indicator was most specific. Biomass, mean trophic level of the community and of the catch, and fishing in balance had the lowest specificity against both size selectivities. Length-based indicators weighted by biomass, rather than abundance, were more sensitive and specific to fishing pressure. Most indicators showed a greater response to sigmoid than Gaussian size selection. Indicators were generally more sensitive at low levels of effort because of nonlinear sensitivity in trophic cascades to fishing mortality. No single indicator emerged as superior in all respects, so given available data, multiple complementary indicators are recommended for community monitoring in the ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

Integration of Indicator Alarm Signals for Ecosystem‐Based Fishery Management

We consider the problem of regulating the rate of harvesting a natural resource, taking account of the wider system represented by a set of ecological and economic indicators, given differing stakeholder priorities. This requires objective and transparent decision making to show how indicators impinge on the resulting regulation decision. We offer a new scheme for combining indicators, derived from assessing the suitability of lowering versus not lowering the harvest rate based on indicator values relative to their predefined reference levels. Using the practical example of fisheries management under an “ecosystem approach,” we demonstrate how different stakeholder views can be quantitatively represented by weighting sets applied to these comparisons. Using the scheme in an analysis of historical data from the Celtic Sea fisheries, we find great scope for negotiating agreement among disparate stakeholders.

Planning and management of marine protected areas : methodological approaches to cope with data scarcity

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Marinha e Aquacultura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

Socio-Economic Issues and Sustainable Fishery Management .A Case Study of Kerala

Department of Applied Economics, Cochin University of Science and Technology.

The Impact of Integrated Marine Fisheries ‘Development Project Among the Artisanal Fishermen in Kerala

Despite various intervensions, artisanal fishermen remain one of the weaker sections in Kerala's society. Host of the welfare and developmental programmes introduced for them had produced very little impact on their living conditions. Further, they are unable to compete with mechanised sector for fishing. Host of the technological development which had taken place after Indo-Norvegean Project favoured the growth of mechanised sector. As a consequence of this, fishing become unviable for artisanal fishermen who propagate the idea of ” sustainable development” in the fishing industry. It is commonly believed that an integrated approach may help them to improve their living conditions substantially. In the light of the above background the scholar has made an attempt to study the impact of Integrated Marine Fisheries Development Project among artisanal fishermen in Kerala It is realised from the findings of the study that the most important needs of artisanal fishermen arecredit facilities and marketing support. Without marketing linkages effective credit management is not possible. Marketing activities and credit management are interdependent

Artisanal fisheries in urban reservoirs: a case study from Brazil (Billings Reservoir, São Paulo Metropolitan Region)

Billings Reservoir is an urban reservoir located in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region. Tt supports 101 active artisanal fishermen. To describe this fishery, landings were recorded daily between February 1996 and January 1997 at Colonia (23 degrees 50' 57 S; 46 degrees 40' 02 W). In every landing, a data collector recorded catch, effort, fishing gears and fishing grounds. A total of 147 593 kg of fish were recorded in 3515 fishing trips. The exotic Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (L.), was the main species exploited (81.4% of the annual catches). Five other species were also targeted: the characid Astyanax eigenmaniorum (Cope) (13.0% of the annual catches); the erythrinid Hoplias aff malabaricus (Block) (2.1%); the exotic cyprinid Cyprinus carpio L. (Campos & Fernandez-Yepez) (2.4%); the curimatid Cyphocharax modestus L. (1.1%); and the pimelodid Rhamdia sp. (0.1%). Two main groups of fishermen were discriminated using Principal Components Analysis; these were associated with the type of fishing gear and fishing strategies, i.e. those who exploited Nile tilapia with cast nets and beating gill nets, and those who exploited other species with set gill nets. Management and maintenance of this fishery should consider the positive top-down effects that Nile tilapia could have in controlling eutrophication and also the social benefits.

Social and financial aspects of the artisanal fisheries of Middle Sao Francisco River, Minas Gerais, Brazil

The presence or absence of motorized boats, partnerships and multispecies catches characterize the fisheries of Sao Francisco River, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Fishing activity based on 109 interviews, carried out in the wet (high water: February and March) and dry (low water: July and August) seasons, with professional fishermen are described. Aiming to identify the fishery income components, a covariance model was proposed, with the income as the response variable, related to the factors: fishing ground, use of motorized or paddle boat; seasonality; presence of fishing assistant, and the following covariates: capture in weight in the week Frier to the interview, fisherman experience in yrs; and distance (km) travelled for fishing. The results indicated that the main contributions to income were the absence of an engine (because of high price of the fuel), the absence of a partner (because of low capture) and the amount of fish caught by the fishermen.

Small-scale fisheries in the middle River Tocantins, Imperatriz (MA), Brazil

The description of the small-scale fisheries in the middle River Tocantins and their dynamics, in a full year cycle, was made out using questionnaires when interviewing fishermen at Imperatriz market. The landed fish exhibited a seasonal pattern related to the hydrological cycle, fishing effort and species diversity. Curimata, Prochilodus nigricans Agassiz, is the most important commercial fish. The fishing gears used in the area are castnets, gillnets, longlines and beach seines. Thirty-six percent of fish landed were caught exclusively by beach seine which mainly targets curimata. Alterations in the physical and biological characteristics of the middle River Tocantins due to the building of the Tucurui dam (2850 km(2) total area) allowed the mapara, Hipophthalmus marginatus Valenciennes, to colonise this area. During the closed season for nets, Siluriformes are the target of the fisheries, caught exclusively by longlining.

Fisheries in large tropical reservoirs in South America

The present status of large reservoir fisheries and their management in large reservoirs in South America are reviewed. There is a brief discussion about reservoir typology, and how most of it is inappropriate to fish. Fish in reservoirs and their introduction from other habitats are described, together with comparative yields. The main impacts due to damming are described, including social aspects. Four case studies are presented for the largest reservoirs in South America: Sobradinho, Tucuruí and Itaipu in Brazil, and El Guri in Venezuela.

Comparing river basins world-wide and contrasting inland fisheries in Africa and Central Amazonia

An analysis of covariance relating basin area (A, km2) to river length (L, km) and discharge rate (D, m3 s-1) was performed for two continents and showed that the two covariates (L and D) were highly significant and that the strength of the relationship changed between continents. For comparison, D was excluded but the result remained the same. Although geomorphological models are useful for establishing global levels of production, these regressions should be applied with caution. Historically, simple statistical models were developed to predict fish catches in rivers. These, based upon regression of catches on channel length or basin area for Africa and Central Amazonia, are contrasted in this paper because of their generally similar approach.