The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

“No fim não vai ficar nada”: exploração dos recursos florestais em Cabo Delgado relatório do trabalho de campo em Namiune, Nkonga e 5º Congresso: Relatório do trabalho de campo nas concessões COMADEL e a FMJ, Cabo Delgado, Novembro de 2010

This report focuses on forest product users in the COMADEL and FMJ forest concessions, Cabo Delgado, as well as the effects of their combined strategies and activities on sustainable use of natural resources and sustainable socio-economic development of the region. The aim is to contribute to understanding the effects of these strategies and activities on forest regeneration, ecosystem services and on resource sustainability. The study examines the role played by the Committees of Natural Resources in forest exploitation. Data obtained from interviews and observations were used to complement and update a variety of existing data from oral and written sources dealing with forest regeneration in Cabo Delgado. These existing materials originate from previous studies conducted in the context of the ESAPP project that started more than two years ago. They include results from Learning for Sustainability workshops (LforS, http://www.cde.unibe.ch/Pages/Project/2/14/Learningfor- Sustainability-Extension-Approach.aspx), as well as field reports, academic studies, management plans used by concessionaires, and others. The interviews and observations took place more or less continuously from the beginning of this phase of the project in 2008. Interviews were systematically conducted with owners of concessions operating in the region, employees of logging companies, residents of villages within the existing concessions, government officials and others. It was not possible to collect information directly from poachers in part due to the illegal nature of their work. Information on these activities was obtained indirectly through members of the Committees of Natural Resources, the concessionaire, and its workers, as well as by observing the traces of extraction – traps, bones and parts of slaughtered animals, tree stumps, material ready for transportation, etc. The main results indicate that extraction by the logging company MITI Ltd. and others acting in the region, by poachers and by other actors – e.g. sawyers using manual saws – put a lot of pressure on marketable species, particularly Millettia stuhlmannii, Afzelia quanzensis and Swartzia madagascariensis. Natural regeneration of forests in northern Cabo Delgado is being compromised by the combination of various extracting activities and uncontrolled fires. MITI Ltd. continued the pattern of exploitation of forest resources that was characteristic of companies operating in the region earlier, such as COMADEL. MITI Ltd. failed to implement the broad range of development and conservation activities encouraged by the new legislation on forest concessions that was created to promote sustainable use of resources.

“Se querem que façamos algo pela floresta tem que nos pagar”: As lógicas da participação dos camponeses nos Comités de Gestão dos Recursos Naturais nos distritos de Palma e Mocimboa da Praia em 2009: Relatório do trabalho de campo em Namiune, Nkonga e 5º Congresso, Maputo, Dezembro de 2010

Our study considers the natural resources of the Miombo forests in Cabo Delgado from a broad ecosystems perspective. Thus, our view goes beyond the disciplinary approaches of forestry, agronomy, biology or zoology, and also of the social sciences, namely anthropology, history, sociology, political science or economics. The present study aims to establish a dialogue and create synergies between Miti Ltd. – the logging company and owner of the forest concessions – as well as government and state structures at the various levels and the communities – through the Committees on Natural Resources – in order to promote the sustainable use of resources and ecosystems. The research methodology we used can broadly be described as moderated transdisciplinary interaction for action-research based on the approach known as Learning for Sustainability (LforS, http://www.cde.unibe.ch/Pages/Project/2/14/Learning-for-Sustainability-Extension-Approach.aspx). The research methods used include: LforS seminars; field work; forests observations focusing, among others, on ecosystems, trees, wildlife, and burned areas; visits to farms; and interviews. We conducted both collective interviews and individual interviews, including with key informants. The main results indicate that members of the Committee on Natural Resources have a dual attitude: their statements defend the paradigm of sustainable use of natural resources as well as their own immediate monetary gain. They are willing to apply the values, concepts and theories of sustainable development that underpin the establishment of Committees on Natural Resources if they are paid for their work or if they can derive direct benefits from it, i.e. if they can earn a salary or allowance. If this does not happen, however, they are willing to allow actors to engage in illegal hunting or logging activities. This dual attitude also exists in relation to forestry operators. If the concession workers pay the committee members in cash or provide goods, they can run their business even if they violate the law. Natural forest regeneration in Nkonga and Namiune already shows the impact of such use. Although there are many saplings that could basically ensure continuous regeneration under sustainable management, repeated burning is damaging the young trees, deforming them and killing a great number of them. Campaigns against uncontrolled fires are ineffective because the administrative and political authorities have a dual attitude as well and are also part of the group that uses resources to their own profit and benefit. There are institutional structures within the administration, populations, and communities to perform regulating functions, create and implement rules, punish offenders, and oversee resource use. However, they feel that since they are not paid for performing these functions, they do not have to do so. This attitude shows a lack of awareness, but also indicates a situation where everyone seeks to derive maximum benefits from existing resource use patterns. Anything goes.

Long-term hydrological dynamics and fire history over the last 2000 years in CE Europe reconstructed from a high-resolution peat archive

Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland are currently influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors that lead to peat desiccation and susceptibility to fire. Little is known about the response of Sphagnum peatland testate amoebae (TA) to the combined effects of drought and fire. To understand the relationships between hydrology and fire dynamics, we used high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological data to reconstruct 2000 years of mire history in northern Poland. We employed a new approach for Polish peatlands – joint TA-based water table depth and charcoal-inferred fire activity reconstructions. In addition, the response of most abundant TA hydrological indicators to charcoal-inferred fire activity was assessed. The results show four hydrological stages of peatland development: moderately wet (from ∼35 BC to 800 AD), wet (from ∼800 to 1390 AD), dry (from ∼1390 to 1700 AD) and with an instable water table (from ∼1700 to 2012 AD). Fire activity has increased in the last millennium after constant human presence in the mire surroundings. Higher fire activity caused a rise in the water table, but later an abrupt drought appeared at the onset of the Little Ice Age. This dry phase is characterized by high ash contents and high charcoal-inferred fire activity. Fires preceded hydrological change and the response of TA to fire was indirect. Peatland drying and hydrological instability was connected with TA community changes from wet (dominance of Archerella flavum, Hyalosphenia papilio, Amphitrema wrightianum) to dry (dominance of Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda); however, no clear fire indicator species was found. Anthropogenic activities can increase peat fires and cause substantial hydrology changes. Our data suggest that increased human fire activity was one of the main factors that influenced peatland hydrology, though the mire response through hydrological changes towards drier conditions was delayed in relation to the surrounding vegetation changes.

Fire ecology north and south of the Alps since the last ice age

Wildfires are very rare in central Europe, which is probably why fire effects on vegetation have been neglected by most central European ecologists and palaeoecologists. Presently, reconstructions of fire history and fire ecology are almost absent. We analysed sediment cores from lakes on the Swiss Plateau (Lobsigensee and Soppensee) for pollen and charcoal to investigate the relationship between vegetation and fire. Microscopic charcoal evidence suggests increasing regional fire frequencies during the Neolithic (7350-4150 cal. BP, 5400-2200 BC) and the subsequent prehistoric epochs at Lobsigensee, whereas at Soppensee burnings remained rather rare until modern times. Neolithic peaks of charcoal at 6200 and 5500 cal. BP (4250 and 3550 BC) coincided with declines of pollen of fire-sensitive taxa at both sites (e.g., Ulmus, Tilia, Hedera, Fagus), suggesting synchronous vegetational responses to fire at regional scales. However, correlation analysis between charcoal and pollen for the period 6600-4400 cal. BP (4650-2650 BC) revealed no significant link between fire and vegetation at Soppensee, whereas at Lobsigensee increases of Corylus and decreases of Fagus were related to fire events. Fire impact on vegetation increased during the subsequent epochs at both sites. Correlation analyses of charcoal and pollen data for the period 4250-1150 cal. BP (2300 BC -AD 800) suggest that fires were intentionally set to disrupt forests and to provide open areas for arable and pastoral farming (e.g., significant positive correlations between charcoal and Cerealia, Plantago lanceolata, Asteroideae). These results are compared with southern European records (Lago di Origlio, Lago di Muzzano), which are situated in particularly fire-prone environments. After the Mesolithic period (I1 200-7350 cal. BP, 9250-5400 BC), charcoal influx was higher by an order of magnitude in the south, suggesting more frequent fires. Neolithic fires caused similar though more pronounced responses of vegetation in the south (e.g., expansions of Corylus). Post-Neolithic land-use practices involving (controlled) burning culminated in both regions at about 2550 cal. BP (c. 600 BC). However, fire-caused disappearances of entire forest communities were confined to the southern sites. Such differences in fire effects among the sites are explained by the dissimilar importance of fire as a result of different climatic conditions and cultural activities. Our results imply that the remaining (fire-sensitive) fragments of central European vegetation north of the Alps are especially endangered by increasing fire frequencies resulting from predicted climatic change.

Long-term forest fire ecology and dynamics in southern Switzerland

1 Pollen and charcoal analysis at two lakes in southern Switzerland revealed that fire has had a prominent role in changing the woodland composition of this area for more than 7000 years. 2 The sediment of Lago di Origlio for the period between 5100 and 3100 bc cal. was sampled continuously with a time interval of about 10 years. Peaks of charcoal particles were significantly correlated with repeated declines in pollen of Abies, Hedera, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior t., Fagus and Vitis and with increases in Alnus glutinosa t., shrubs (e.g. Corylus, Salix and Sambucus nigra t.) and several herbaceous species. The final disappearance of the lowland Abies alba stands at around 3150 bc cal. may be an example of a fire-caused local extinction of a fire-intolerant species. 3 Forest fires tended to diminish pollen diversity. The charcoal peaks were preceded by pollen types indicating human activity. Charcoal minima occurred during periods of cold humid climate, when fire susceptibility would be reduced. 4 An increase of forest fires at about 2100 bc cal. severely reduced the remaining fire-sensitive plants: the mixed-oak forest was replaced by a fire-tolerant alder–oak forest. The very strong increase of charcoal influx, and the marked presence of anthropogenic indicators, point to principally anthropogenic causes. 5 We suggest that without anthropogenic disturbances Abies alba would still form lowland forests together with various deciduous broadleaved tree taxa.

Reactive Co-Radicalization: Religious Extremism as Mutual Dicontent

Extremist rhetoric and behaviour, including violence, emanating from those fearing and opposed to Islamic extremism—and typically generalising that to Islam or Muslims—is undeniable. Equally, there is evidence of Muslim rhetoric that fires up fears of a threatening West and antipathy to religious ‘others’ as damned infidels, including Christians and Jews who are otherwise regarded as co-religionists—as ‘peoples of the Book’. Mutual discontent and antipathy abound. On the one hand, Islamic extremism provokes a reactionary extremism from parts, at least, of the non-Muslim world; on the other hand, Muslim extremism appears often in response to the perception of an aggressive and impositional colonising non-Muslim world. ‘Reactive Co-Radicalization’, I suggest, names this mutual rejection and exclusionary circle currently evident, in particular, with respect to many Muslim and non-Muslim communities. This article discusses reactive co-radicalization as a hermeneutical perspective on religious extremism with particular reference to two European cases.

Abies – Circum-Mediterranean firs in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Most European firs occur predominantly in small to medium-sized populations in the Mediterranean region, sometimes with fragmented and limited distributions, except for silver fir (Abies alba). They all are genetically closely related and can easily hybridise, perhaps as a consequence of late speciation during the late Quaternary. Circum-Mediterranean firs occur principally in mountain areas with medium to high precipitations rates which are mostly concentrated during the winter period. The species are able to tolerate long droughts in summer and tend to form pure stands when in optimal habitats. In the past firs have been extensively logged for construction and fire wood and their stands were replaced by other more disturbance adapted species or converted into rural areas. Nowadays with the exception of silver fir and Caucasian fir (Abies nordmanniana), circum-Mediterranean firs do not have a wide commercial interest. In Turkey they are still exploited for timber wood, while other firs have an ornamental use in gardening. Great importance is given to their preservation, especially to those populations which have very limited areas and specimens, with the creation of protected reserves and conservation programmes. Wild fires, livestock grazing and genetic drift represent actually their main threats.

Computer Simulation of Crowd Dynamics and Destructive Crowd Behavior

The social processes that lead to destructive behavior in celebratory crowds can be studied through an agent-based computer simulation. Riots are an increasingly common outcome of sports celebrations, and pose the potential for harm to participants, bystanders, property, and the reputation of the groups with whom participants are associated. Rioting cannot necessarily be attributed to the negative emotions of individuals, such as anger, rage, frustration and despair. For instance, the celebratory behavior (e.g., chanting, cheering, singing) during UConn’s “Spring Weekend” and after the 2004 NCAA Championships resulted in several small fires and overturned cars. Further, not every individual in the area of a riot engages in violence, and those who do, do not do so continuously. Instead, small groups carry out the majority of violent acts in relatively short-lived episodes. Agent-based computer simulations are an ideal method for modeling complex group-level social phenomena, such as celebratory gatherings and riots, which emerge from the interaction of relatively “simple” individuals. By making simple assumptions about individuals’ decision-making and behaviors and allowing actors to affect one another, behavioral patterns emerge that cannot be predicted by the characteristics of individuals. The computer simulation developed here models celebratory riot behavior by repeatedly evaluating a single algorithm for each individual, the inputs of which are affected by the characteristics of nearby actors. Specifically, the simulation assumes that (a) actors possess 1 of 5 distinct social identities (group memberships), (b) actors will congregate with actors who possess the same identity, (c) the degree of social cohesion generated in the social context determines the stability of relationships within groups, and (d) actors’ level of aggression is affected by the aggression of other group members. Not only does this simulation provide a systematic investigation of the effects of the initial distribution of aggression, social identification, and cohesiveness on riot outcomes, but also an analytic tool others may use to investigate, visualize and predict how various individual characteristics affect emergent crowd behavior.

Propiedades químicas del suelo en bosques de Nothofagus antarctica y Austrocedrus chilensis afectados por fuego

Este estudio tuvo por objetivo caracterizar la fertilidad química del suelo superficial nueve meses después de la ocurrencia de fuegos en dos tipos de formaciones del bosque andino patagónico: Nothofagus antarctica y Austrocedrus chilensis. El área de estudio se centró en un sector de suelos de ceniza volcánica que fue afectado por el incendio denominado La Colisión (Chubut, Argentina, febrero 2008) y posteriormente cubierto por ceniza volcánica proveniente del volcán Chaitén (mayo 2008). Se tomaron muestras compuestas de suelo mineral a dos profundidades (0-5 cm y 5-10 cm) en un sector de bosque de N. antarctica y un sector de bosque de A. chilensis, considerando tres niveles de afectación por fuego (control no quemado, poco quemado, muy quemado). En las muestras más superficiales (i.e., 0-5 cm) hubo aumentos significativos de pH y conductividad eléctrica, y disminución de los contenidos de materia orgánica, nitrógeno total, CIC y sodio, como consecuencia del fuego. Las muestras de 5-10 cm evidenciaron disminución de materia orgánica y nitrógeno total y aumento de azufre. El mayor contenido de azufre en los bosques quemados y el aumento observado de fósforo en suelos alofanizados con bajo grado de afectación por fuego, podrían ser beneficiosos para la recuperación de la vegetación.

Landsat derived percent vegetation cover of Israel (as of 2003)

Wildfires are part of the Mediterranean ecosystem, however, in Israel all wildfires are human caused, either intentionally or un-intentionally. In this study we aimed to develop and test a new method for mapping fire scars from MODIS imagery, to examine the temporal and spatial patterns of wildfires in Israel in the 2000s and to examine the factors controlling Israel's wildfire regime. To map the fires we used two 'off-the-shelf' MODIS fire products as our basis-the 1 km MODIS Collection 5 fire hotspots, the 500 m MCD45A1 burnt areas-and we created a new set of fire scar maps from the 250 m MOD13Q1 product. We carried out a cross comparison of the three MODIS based wildfire scar maps and evaluated them independently against the wild fire scars mapped from 30 m Landsat TM imagery. To examine the factors controlling wildfires we used GIS layers of rainfall, land use, and a Landsat-based national vegetation map. Wildfires occurred in areas where annual rainfall was above 250 mm, mostly in areas with herbaceous vegetation. Wildfire frequency was especially high in the Golan Heights and in the foothills of the Judean mountains, and a high correspondence was found between military training zones and the spatial distribution of fire scars. The use of MODIS satellite images enabled us to map wildfires at a national scale due to the high temporal resolution of the sensor. Our MOD13Q1 based mapping of fire scars adequately mapped large (>1 km**2) fires with accuracies above 80%. Such large fires account for a large proportion of all fires, and pose the greatest threats. This database can aid managers in determining wildfire risks in space and in time.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.