Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Extreme temperature events analyzed with Fast Fourier Transform

Extreme weather and climate events have received increased attention in the last few years, due to the often large loss of agriculture business and exponentially increasing costs associated with them and insurance planning. This increased attention raises the question as to whether extreme weather and climate events are truly increasing, whether this is only a perceived increase exacerbated by enhanced media coverage, or both. There are a number of ways extreme climate events can be defined, such as extreme daily temperatures, extreme daily rainfall amounts, and large areas experiencing unusually warm monthly temperatures, among others. In this study, we will focus our attention in frost and heatstroke events measuring it as the number of days under 0 ºC and number of days with daily maximum over 30ºC monthly respectively. We have studied the trends in these extreme events applying a Fast Fourier Transform to the series to clarify the tendency. Lack of long-term climate data suitable for analysis of extremes is the single biggest obstacle to quantifying whether extreme events have changed over the twentieth century, including high temporal and spatial resolution observations of temperatures. However, several series have been grouped in different ways: chosen the longest series independently, by provinces, by main watersheds and altitude. On the other hand, synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet) were also analyzed. The results obtained by different pooling data are discussed concluding the difficulties to assess the extreme events tendencies and high regional variation in the trends.

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.

Validation of the SenseWear armband in circuit resistance training with different loads

The use of the SenseWear™ armband (SWA), an objective monitor of physical activity, is a relatively new device used by researchers to measure energy expenditure. These monitors are practical, relatively inexpensive and easy-to-use. The aim of the present study was to assess the validity of SWAs for the measurement of energy expenditure (EE) in circuit resistance training (CRT) at three different intensities in moderately active, healthy subjects. The study subjects (17 females, 12 males) undertook CRT at 30, 50 and 70% of the 15 repetition maximum for each exercise component wearing an SWA as well as an Oxycon Mobile (OM) portable metabolic system (a gold standard method for measuring EE). The EE rose as exercise intensity increased, but was underestimated by the SWAs. For women, Bland-Altman plots showed a bias of 1.13 ± 1.48 METs and 32.1 ± 34.0 kcal in favour of the OM system, while for men values of 2.33 ± 1.82 METs and 75.8 ± 50.8 kcal were recorded.

Extreme flood abatement in large dams with fixed-crest spillways

This study characterises the abatement effect of large dams with fixed-crest spillways under extreme design flood conditions. In contrast to previous studies using specific hydrographs for flow into the reservoir and simplifications to obtain analytical solutions, an automated tool was designed for calculations based on a Monte Carlo simulation environment, which integrates models that represent the different physical processes in watersheds with areas of 150?2000 km2. The tool was applied to 21 sites that were uniformly distributed throughout continental Spain, with 105 fixed-crest dam configurations. This tool allowed a set of hydrographs to be obtained as an approximation for the hydrological forcing of a dam and the characterisation of the response of the dam to this forcing. For all cases studied, we obtained a strong linear correlation between the peak flow entering the reservoir and the peak flow discharged by the dam, and a simple general procedure was proposed to characterise the peak-flow attenuation behaviour of the reservoir. Additionally, two dimensionless coefficients were defined to relate the variables governing both the generation of the flood and its abatement in the reservoir. Using these coefficients, a model was defined to allow for the estimation of the flood abatement effect of a reservoir based on the available information. This model should be useful in the hydrological design of spillways and the evaluation of the hydrological safety of dams. Finally, the proposed procedure and model were evaluated and representative applications were presented

Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)

The study of pointer years of numerous tree-ring chronologies of the central Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Guadarrama) could provide complementary information about climate variability over the last 405 yr. In total, 64 pointer years have been identified: 30 negative (representing minimum growths) and 34 positive (representing maximum growths), the most significant of these being 1601, 1963 and 1996 for the negative ones, and 1734 and 1737 for the positive ones. Given that summer precipitation was found to be the most limiting factor for the growth of Pinus in the Sierra de Guadarrama in the second half of the 20th century, it is also an explanatory factor in almost 50% of the extreme growths. Furthermore, these pointer years and intervals are not evenly distributed throughout time. Both in the first half of the 17th and in the second half of 20th, they were more frequent and more extreme and these periods are the most notable for the frequency of negative pointer years in Central Spain. The interval 1600–1602 is of special significance, being one of the most unfavourable for tree growth in the centre of Spain, with 1601 representing the minimum index in the regional chronology. We infer that this special minimum annual increase was the effect of the eruption of Huaynaputina, which occurred in Peru at the beginning of 1600 AD. This is the first time that the effects of this eruption in the tree-ring records of Southern Europe have been demonstrated.

Discernment of bee pollen loads using computer vision and one-class classification techniques

In this paper, we propose a system for authenticating local bee pollen against fraudulent samples using image processing and classification techniques. Our system is based on the colour properties of bee pollen loads and the use of one-class classifiers to reject unknown pollen samples. The latter classification techniques allow us to tackle the major difficulty of the problem, the existence of many possible fraudulent pollen types. Also presented is a multi-classifier model with an ambiguity discovery process to fuse the output of the one-class classifiers. The method is validated by authenticating Spanish bee pollen types, the overall accuracy of the final system of being 94%. Therefore, the system is able to rapidly reject the non-local pollen samples with inexpensive hardware and without the need to send the product to the laboratory.

On the flexural vibration of cylinders under axial loads:Numerical and experimental study

The flexural vibration of a homogeneous isotropic linearly elastic cylinder of any aspect ratio is analysed in this paper. Natural frequencies of a cylinder under uniformly distributed axial loads acting on its bases are calculated numerically by the Ritz method with terms of power series in the coordinate directions as approximating functions. The effect of axial loads on the flexural vibration cannot be described by applying infinitesimal strain theory, therefore, geometrically nonlinear strain–displacement relations with second-order terms are considered here. The natural frequencies of free–free, clamped–clamped, and sliding–sliding cylinders subjected to axial loads are calculated using the proposed three-dimensional Ritz approach and are compared with those obtained with the finite element method and the Bernoulli–Euler theory. Different experiments with cylinders axially compressed by a hydraulic press are carried out and the experimental results for the lowest flexural frequency are compared with the numerical results. An approach based on the Ritz formulation is proposed for the flexural vibration of a cylinder between the platens of the press with constraints varying with the intensity of the compression. The results show that for low compressions the cylinder behaves similarly to a sliding–sliding cylinder, whereas for high compressions the cylinder vibrates as a clamped–clamped one.

Induced shock loads during the separation of the Ariane 5 VEB structure

Tests used to simulate the separation of the lower stage of the Ariane Vehicle Equipment Bay (VEB) were carried out on a flat full scale model. Theoretical studies carried out prior to testing are described. Three different mathematical methods, finite element, component element, and wave propagation, were used. Comparison of the predicted theoretical results with the actual test results is planned.

Extreme super-resolution using the spherical geodesic waveguide

Leonhardt demonstrated (2009) that the 2D Maxwell Fish Eye lens (MFE) can focus perfectly 2D Helmholtz waves of arbitrary frequency, i.e., it can transport perfectly an outward (monopole) 2D Helmholtz wave field, generated by a point source, towards a "perfect point drain" located at the corresponding image point. Moreover, a prototype with λ/5 superresolution (SR) property for one microwave frequency has been manufactured and tested (Ma et al, 2010). Although this prototype has been loaded with an impedance different from the "perfect point drain", it has shown super-resolution property. However, neither software simulations nor experimental measurements for a broad band of frequencies have yet been reported. Here we present steady state simulations for two cases, using perfect drain as suggested by Leonhardt and without perfect drain as in the prototype. All the simulations have been done using a device equivalent to the MFE, called the Spherical Geodesic Waveguide (SGW). The results show the super-resolution up to λ/3000, for the system loaded with the perfect drain, and up to λ/500 for a not perfect load. In both cases super-resolution only happens for discrete number of frequencies. Out of these frequencies, the SGW does not show super-resolution in the analysis carried out.

Moving loads on railway bridges: The Spanish Code approach

This paper presents the results of part of the research carried out by a committee in charge of the elaboration of the new Spanish Code of Actions in Railway Bridges. Following the work developed by the European Rail Research Institute (ERRI), the dynamic effects caused by the Spanish high-speed train TALGO have been studied and compared with other European trains. A simplified envelope of the impact coefficient is also presented. Finally, the train-bridge interactions has been analysed and the results compared with those obtained from simple models based on moving loads.

Análisis de la influencia de los diferentes parámetros de diseño en la aparición de fatiga superficial en contactos mecánicos

La fatiga superficial es uno de los principales problemas en las transmisiones mecánicas y es uno de los focos de atención de las investigaciones de los últimos anos en Tribología. La disminución de viscosidad de los lubricantes para la mejora de la eficiencia, el aumento de las potencias a transmitir, el aumento de la vida de los componentes o la mejora de su fiabilidad han supuesto que los fenómenos de fatiga superficial hayan cobrado especial relevancia, especialmente los fenómenos de pitting y micropitting en cajas multiplicadoras/reductoras de grandes potencias de aplicación, por ejemplo, en el sector eólico. Como todo fenómeno de fatiga, el pitting y micropitting son debidos a la aplicación de cargas ciclicas. Su aparición depende de las presiones y tensiones cortantes en el contacto entre dos superficies que al encontrarse en rodadura y deslizamiento varian con el tiempo. La principal consecuencia de la fatiga superficial es la aparición de hoyuelos de diferente magnitud segun la escala del fenómeno (pitting o micropitting) en la superficie del material. La aparición de estos hoyuelos provoca la perdida de material, induce vibraciones y sobrecargas en el elemento que finalmente acaba fallando. Debido a la influencia de la presión y tensión cortante en el contacto, la aparición de fatiga depende fuertemente del lubricante que se encuentre entre las dos superficies y de las condiciones de funcionamiento en las cuales este trabajando. Cuando el contacto trabaja en condiciones de lubricacion mixta-elastohidrodinamica tiende a aparecer micropitting debido a las altas tensiones localizadas en las proximidades de las asperezas, mientras que si el régimen es de lubricación completa el tipo de fatiga superficial suele ser pitting debido a las tensiones mas suavizadas y menos concentradas. En esta Tesis Doctoral se han analizado todos estos factores de influencia que controlan el pitting y el micropitting prestando especial atención al efecto del lubricante. Para ello, se ha dado un enfoque conjunto a ambos fenómenos resolviendo las ecuaciones involucradas en el contacto elastohidrodinamico no-Newtoniano (la ecuación de Reynolds, la deformación elástica de los sólidos y la reologia del lubricante) para conocer la presión y la tensión cortante en el contacto. Conocidas estas, se resuelve el campo de tensiones en el interior del material y, finalmente, se aplican criterios de fatiga multiaxial (Crossland, Dang Van y Liu-Mahadevan) para conocer si el material falla o no falla. Con la metodología desarrollada se ha analizado el efecto sobre las tensiones y la aparición de la fatiga superficial del coeficiente viscosidad-presion, de la compresibilidad, del espesor especifico de película y de la fricción así como de la influencia de las propiedades a fatiga del material y de las condiciones de funcionamiento (radios de contacto, velocidad, deslizamiento, carga y temperatura). Para la validación de los resultados se han utilizado resultados teóricos y experimentales de otros autores junto con normas internacionales de amplia utilización en el mundo industrial, entre otras, para el diseño y calculo de engranajes. A parte del trabajo realizado por simulación y cálculo de los diferentes modelos desarrollados, se ha realizado un importante trabajo experimental que ha servido no solo para validar la herramienta desarrollada sino que además ha permitido incorporar al estudio factores no considerados en los modelos, como los aditivos del lubricante. Se han realizado ensayos de medida del coeficiente de fricción en una maquina de ensayo puntual con la que se ha validado el cálculo del coeficiente de fricción y se ha desarrollado un proceso de mejora del coeficiente de fricción mediante texturizado superficial en contactos puntuales elastohidrodinamicos mediante fotolitografia y ataque quimico. Junto con los ensayos de medida de fricción en contacto puntual se han realizado ensayos de fricción y fatiga superficial en contacto lineal mediante una maquina de discos que ha permitido evaluar la influencia de diferentes aditivos (modificadores de fricción, antidesgaste y extrema-presion) en la aparición de fatiga superficial (pitting y micropitting) y la fricción en el contacto. Abstract Surface fatigue is one of the most important problems of mechanical transmissions and therefore has been one of the main research topics on Tribology during the last years. On the one hand, industrial demand on fuel economy has led to reduce lubricant viscosity in order to improve efficiency. On the other hand, the requirements of power and life of machine elements are continuously increasing, together with the improvements in reliability. As a consequence, surface fatigue phenomena have become critical in machinery, in particular pitting and micropitting in high power gearboxes of every kind of machines, e.g., wind turbines or cranes. In line with every fatigue phenomena, pitting and micropitting are caused by cyclic loads. Their appearance depends on the evolution of pressures and shear stresses with time, throughout the contact between surfaces under rolling and sliding conditions. The main consequence of surface fatigue is the appearance of pits on the surface. The size of the pits is related to the scale of the fatigue: pitting or micropitting. These pits cause material loss, vibrations and overloads until the final failure is reached. Due to the great influence of the pressures and shear stresses in surface fatigue, the appearance of pits depends directly on the lubricant and the operating conditions. When the contact works under mixed regime (or under elastohydrodynamic but close to mixed regime) the main fatigue failure is micropitting because of the high pressures located near the asperities. In contrast, when the contact works under elastohydrodynamic fully flooded conditions the typical fatigue failure is pitting. In this Ph.D. Thesis, the main factors with influence on pitting and micropitting phenomena are analyzed, with special attention to the effect of the lubricant. For this purpose, pitting and micropitting are studied together by solving the equations involved in the non-Newtonian elastohydrodynamic contact. Thus, pressure and shear stress distributions are found by taking into account Reynolds equation, elastic deflection of the solids and lubricant rheology. Subsequently, the stress field inside the material can be calculated and different multiaxial fatigue criteria (Crossland, Dang Van and Liu- Mahadevan) can be applied to predict whether fatigue failure is reached. The influences of the main parameters on pressure and surface fatigue have been studied, taking into account the lubricant compressibility and its viscosity-pressure coefficient, the specific film thickness, the friction coefficient and the fatigue properties of the contacting materials, together with the operating conditions (contact radius, mean velocity, sliding velocity, load and temperature). Several theoretical and experimental studies of different authors have been used to validate all the results obtained, together with international standards used worldwide in gear design industry. Moreover, an experimental stage has been carried out in order to validate the calculation methods and introduce additional influences not included previously, e.g., lubricant additives. The experimentation includes different friction tests in point contacts performed with a tribological equipment in order to validate the results given by the calculations. Furthermore, the reduction and optimization of the friction coefficient is analyzed by means of textured surfaces, obtained combining photolithography and chemical etching techniques. Besides the friction tests with point contact, friction and surface fatigue tests have also been performed with line contact in a tribological test rig. This equipment is also used to study the influence of different types of additives (friction modifiers, anti-wear and extreme-pressure additives) on surface fatigue (pitting and micropitting).

Dry cooling with night cool storage to enhance solar power plants performance in extreme conditions areas

Solar thermal power plants are usually installed in locations with high yearly average solar radiation, often deserts. In such conditions, cooling water required for thermodynamic cycles is rarely available. Moreover, when solar radiation is high, ambient temperature is very high as well; this leads to excessive condensation temperature, especially when air-condensers are used, and decreases the plant efficiency. However, temperature variation in deserts is often very high, which drives to relatively low temperatures during the night. This fact can be exploited with the use of a closed cooling system, so that the coolant (water) is chilled during the night and store. Chilled water is then used during peak temperature hours to cool the condenser (dry cooling), thus enhancing power output and efficiency. The present work analyzes the performance improvement achieved by night thermal cool storage, compared to its equivalent air cooled power plant. Dry cooling is proved to be energy-effective for moderately high day–night temperature differences (20 °C), often found in desert locations. The storage volume requirement for different power plant efficiencies has also been studied, resulting on an asymptotic tendency.

Green façades for urban comfort improvement. Implementation in a extreme Continental Mediterranean climate

Green façades constitute constructive technologies with a positive influence on sustainability in cities and several urban climate parameters such as thermal comfort, air quality and water management. According to the current research, the implementation of urban greenery contributes to increase the cooling effect and mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. This paper focuses on the role of vegetation in improving the urban environment of Madrid (Spain). The simulation results show that green walls could be more effective in urban morphologies with narrow streets. During overheated periods, the streets with green walls have a higher relative humidity in the surrounding areas than those with trees. The air temperature is found to be a little lower. The reduction of wind speed means a positive effect on urban hygrothermal comfort. Therefore, green walls could be taken into account as suitable tools to modify the outdoor thermal environment in cities with an extreme Continental Mediterranean climate.

Understanding extreme Spanish coastal flood events

The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise by storm surge accompanying rain process on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the presentation analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market".